Today's Free Sports Picks — August 12, 2026

The Packers roll into Pittsburgh Thursday night for the first full preseason game of the year, and the total is sitting right in that familiar 36.5 to 37.5 window. I’m on the under, and the deeper you dig into the league-wide and team numbers the more it feels like the right side of the math.

League-wide, the 37 threshold has been a reliable separator for years. Closing totals of 37 or higher have gone under at a 56.4 percent clip since 2010, a sample that runs well over 900 games. Since 2014 the under on those 37-plus numbers is even cleaner at 60.7 percent, returning solid units at standard pricing. The reverse holds too. When the number opens at 37 or lower the over hits closer to 59 or 60 percent. This matchup is perched right on the line, but the historical lean still favors the lower side once you account for how little the real starters play these days. Last year only 9.8 percent of preseason pass attempts came from quarterbacks who ended up starting Week 1. That is a sharp drop from the 30-plus percent range we saw a decade ago, and it means more backup-driven football, more conservative play-calling, and fewer explosive finishes.

The Steelers themselves have been a quiet under machine at home in the exhibition season. From 2002 through 2025 Pittsburgh as the home team went under in 67.4 percent of its preseason games, a 14-29-2 record that has produced double-digit units over the long haul. That is not a small-sample fluke. It lines up with the physical, run-heavy identity the organization has carried for years, even when the first-team defense sits most of the night. Green Bay has not been as extreme, but the Packers still play a brand of football that keeps games from turning into track meets, especially on the road in August.

Add the outdoor night setting in western Pennsylvania and the picture gets clearer. Early-season humidity and potential weather keep the ball on the ground more than the public expects. Combined scores in Week 1 preseason games have historically averaged just under 39 points against posted numbers that often sit in the mid-to-high 30s. When you stack the league-wide 56-to-60 percent under rate on 37-plus totals with Pittsburgh’s strong home under history, the edge starts looking real. At -110 a 56 percent hit rate over a 100-game sample nets you positive return after the juice. A 60 percent clip turns it into a steady grind that keeps bankrolls healthy over time.

There is the Rodgers-McCarthy reunion angle, and yes, the veteran may take 30 or 40 snaps against his old club. Even if he does, the majority of the game still belongs to the second and third units still working through timing and communication. Those groups rarely light up the scoreboard in Week 1. I like this under. It matches the long-term numbers, the team-specific home trend, and the reality of limited starter volume. Keep the stake sensible, enjoy the nostalgia, and let the points stay low.

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Tennessee at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The injury bug has hit the 49ers again this training camp and it has many bettors shying away from them as they host the Titans in their preseason opener on Thursday. I think this line has gone too far in Tennessee's direction. I understand the support for the Titans here in August as they do have a strong preseason quarterback rotation with experienced backups in Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis and even Hendon Hooker who has made a splash in the preseason in prior years. With that being said, San Francisco has plenty of upside at the position behind Brock Purdy as well with Mac Jones firmly planted as the backup but Kurtis Rourke and Adrian Martinez capable of making some preseason noise. I just don't see enough of a depth advantage for a rebuilding Tennessee team to warrant it laying a field goal on the road in its first preseason contest. Both teams went 2-1 last August but dropped their respective preseason openers. It's worth noting the 49ers faced the tougher opening matchup against a deep Broncos team that has taken the preseason seriously under head coach Sean Payton. Take San Francisco (8*).

Las Vegas has the better disclosed rotation information. The systems favor Arizona.

System: Road underdogs of 2.5 points or fewer are 84-43 ATS (66.1%) since 2015. Arizona qualifies at +1.5.

There is also the broader small-underdog result:

System: Preseason underdogs in the +1 to +3 range are 190-128 ATS (59.7%) since 2015. But Las Vegas has attractive personnel information. Kubiak says starters will participate and Mendoza will receive plenty of repetitions.

That leaves a direct conflict between two excellent historical underdog systems and positive Raiders rotation/money information, thus not a premium bet, but such a strong system to not have as a free play with possible upgrade to premium.