Frank Sawyer

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (957) versus the New York Mets (958), listing both starting pitchers, Bryce Elder and Christian Scott. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (71-47) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 2-1 win in New York against the Yankees on Sunday. New York (52-67) has won five of their last six games after their 11-1 win in Pittsburgh against the Pirates yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has still won 9 of their last 11 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after winning their last contest. The Braves return home, where they have won 15 of their last 20 games to improve their record at Truist Park to 39-20. They have won 20 of their last 27 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games at home against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bryce Elder, who has an 8-6 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home, where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in nine starts on the road. In his last four starts, he has a 1.88 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He should pitch well against this Mets team that ranks 21st and 23rd in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they drop to 23rd and 24th in those categories since May 1st. New York has lost 18 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. They have lost 13 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Additionally, the Mets have lost 13 of their last 16 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. And while the Braves are outscoring their opponents by +1.0 Runs-Per-Game, New York has lost 12 of their last 16 road games against opponents that are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. The Mets tap Christian Scott as their starting pitcher. The right-hander has a 3-3 record with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression of about half a run per outing. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.66 and 3.74 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 3.78. In his last three starts, he has been saddled with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.  

FINAL TAKE: The Braves rank fifth and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Since June 1st, they rank fifth in MLB in both those categories — and they lead MLB in those metrics since July 1st. 25* MLB NL East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (957) versus the New York Mets (958), listing both starting pitchers, Bryce Elder and Christian Scott. Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the Colorado Rockies (955), listing both starting pitchers, Michael Soroka and Gabriel Hughes. THE SITUATION: Arizona (63-56) has won two of their last three games after their 4-2 win at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. Colorado (46-72) has lost five of their last six games after their 7-4 loss on the road in St. Louis against the Cardinals yesterday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have won 22 of their last 35 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Additionally, they have won 21 of their last 34 games against teams that are winning 38-46% of their games. They give the ball to Michael Soroka, who has an 8-3 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 15 starts before going on the injured list about seven weeks ago with a glute injury. The right-hander has been more effective at home, where he has a 2.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts as opposed to his 4.54 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in six starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that ranks 20th in MLB this season in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they drop to 25th and 27th in those categories since July 1st. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 14 games after losing their last game. They have also lost 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Furthermore, they have lost 34 of their 47 road games when priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. They have also lost 21 of their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gabriel Hughes, who has an 0-3 record along with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in six games (five starts). The right-hander has been better at home, where he sports a 3.86 ERA in four appearances — but his ERA on the road rises to 4.91 in his three starts on the road. In the minor leagues this season before his call-up to MLB, the rookie had a 5-6 record with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP — and the deeper sabermetrics called for regression with his xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.55 in his 105 1/3 innings. 

FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks rank third and fourth in MLB at home in the last month since July 10th in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. 8* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the Colorado Rockies (955), listing both starting pitchers Michael Soroka and Gabriel Hughes. Best of luck for us — Frank.