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At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing France (225522) minus the goal-line versus Sweden (225521) in the Round of 32 in the Knockout Stage of the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W3-D0-L0) completed their group stage unscathed with a 4-1 victory against Norway on Friday to finish in first place in Group I. Sweden (W1-D1-L1) advanced from a third-place result in Group F after a 1-1 draw with Japan, along with a net goal differential of zero. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE FRANCE MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sweden was fortunate to get the draw from a Japan side that was eventually content with that result since it ensured their involvement in the Knockout Stage. The Blue and Yellow only generated 0.64 expected Goals (xG) in that match, along with only one Big Chance (a shot with at least a 35% xG of scoring). Japan registered two Big Chances and 1.21 xG in that match. The Swedes have scored seven goals — but their xG in their three matches is just 2.98. Take away their match against Tunisia, who deserve to win the gold medal for biggest train wreck in this tournament after firing their manager after Sweden’s 5-1 win against them in their opening match, and Blagult only scored two goals with just three Big Chances and a 2.65 xG in their final two matches against the Netherlands and Japan. After crushing Tunisia, Sweden got exposed by the Oranje in their second match against a serious national team not simply settling for a Knockout State spot — they surrendered a healthy 2.61 expected Goals (xG) in that loss. The defensive pursuits of manager Graham Potter’s squad continue to be challenged. They have conceded goals in 14 straight matches across all competitions — and they have not registered a clean sheet in Potter’s nine matches since he took over on October 20th last fall. They have conceded 2.20 Goals-Per-Game in those eight contests. Admittedly, a slew of injuries have not helped Potter’s cause. But the overall talent level of the Blue and Yellows is a significant question. After forwards Alexander Isak of Liverpool and Viktor Gyokeres of Arsenal, there is a big drop-off in the quality of the remaining (healthy) players, especially when considering their roles in top-flight European professional leagues. The writing has been on the wall for those willing to read it. After failing to qualify for both the 2022 World Cup and then the 2024 Euro, they did not win a match in their initial World Cup qualification stage. It was a new tiebreaker that relies on UEFA Nations League ranking that kept the Swedes' World Cup hopes alive. They were gifted a semifinal playoff match at a neutral site against Ukraine given Russia’s continued bombing campaign against that country. Surviving that match, they then got to host Poland at home and beat them by a 3-2 score to qualify for the World Cup. In their two friendlies this month, they lost at Norway by a 3-1 score before settling with a 2-2 draw at home against a Greece side that did not qualify for the World Cup. I’m not going to read a ton into France’s victory against the Norway B-team except to say they are simply oozing with scoring talent. Still, Ousmane Dembele registered his hat trick in the first 32 minutes of the match — and he is not even the proverbial Michael Jordan of the team despite being the reigning Ballon d’Or winner. Then again, if Kylian Mbappe is the Jordan in this analogy, then Dembele is much better than Scottie Pippen, trust me (Dembele will finish this tournament migraine-free). Les Bleus are an offensive juggernaut that has scored goals in 16 straight matches across all competitions — and they have scored two or more goals in 15 of those contests. It is simply an abundance of riches for manager Didier Deschamps with All-World team of forwards in Mbappe (the best player in the world?), Dembele (again, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner for Paris Saint-Germain), attacking midfielder Michael Olise (Thierry Henry’s predicted breakout star of this tournament), and emerging superstar forwards at PSG, Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola, battling for the starting spot next to Mbappe. France has scored at least three goals in all three of their World Cup matches. They have generated 12 Big Chances (defined as a shot with at least an expected Goal probability of at least 35%). Entering the tournament, there was a concern regarding whether these parts could fit together. Like the 1992 basketball Dream Team for the United States, pure unadulterated talent is a good answer for questions like that. “Only” scoring 16 goals in their six qualification matches can be explained away by these superstars being more focused on their professional clubs during the non-summer months. The World Cup has these players' full attention now. Mbappe has four goals in this tournament — and he has now scored 16 goals in his 17 World Cup matches for the French.
FINAL TAKE: I do have worries about too many defensive lapses by the French in the group stage — but I don’t think the Swedes have the talent to take enough advantage of it. Les Bleus have only lost twice in the World Cup since Deschamps took over the national team in 2012. Sweden surrendered goals in every one of their World Cup qualifying matches (including their two playoff matches), and now three World Cup matches. Did I consider the Over? Sure. I’m just not going to be surprised at a 2-0 result for France after this side registered four clean sheets in their six matches in the 2024 Euro en route to their semifinal loss to Spain. Ultimately, even with all this scoring talent, Deschamps’ tactics begin as an arch-pragmatist who wants defensive solidarity before building out from that. Let’s not get cute: a multi-goal win by the French is the most likely result. 25* World Cup Match of the Month with France (225522) minus the goal-line versus Sweden (225521). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (918) versus the Detroit Tigers (917), listing both starting pitchers Cam Schlittler and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: New York (48-36) looks to end their five-game losing streak after their 7-3 loss at home against the Tigers on Monday. Detroit (36-49) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Yankees have won 11 of their last 17 games at home after losing two or more games in a row. They have won 27 of their last 38 games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record, including 13 of those 16 games played at home. They have also won 7 straight games with the Total set at 7 or less. Cam Schlitter gets the ball tonight. The right-hander has an 8-4 record with a 1.62 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 17 starts. He has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts in 11 innings. In his last four starts, he sports a 0.76 ERA. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression — but the numbers remain outstanding. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.90 and 2.83. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 2.72. If that’s who he is moving forward, that is outstanding. New York has won 9 of their last 12 games when Schlittler is on the mound and charged with snapping a team losing streak. He gets a Tigers lineup that ranks 27th and 26th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Detroit has lost 20 of their last 28 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 8 of their last 12 road games after winning their last game. Additionally, they have lost 28 of their last 41 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. They have also lost 18 of their last 28 games on the road when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Tarik Skubal — who is not performing with his highest powers right now. In 10 starts, the southpaw has a 3-4 record with a 3.32 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Since coming off the injured list from elbow surgery, he has a 4.97 ERA in those 16 1/3 innings. He has surrendered six home runs during that span — including the three home runs the Yankees nailed against him in his last start last Wednesday when he surrendered four earned runs in six innings of work. Frankly, Skubal’s struggles were evident before he went under the knife. In his last five starts including the two prior to getting surgery, he has a 4.61 ERA. His xERA for the season is 3.49. While still very good, it’s not the elite 2.71 xERA he registered last season. It’s bad business to make it a practice to fade Skubal, but this is a good spot to do it — and the price is certainly right.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees rank second and first in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers — and they rank second in both those categories since May 1st, so those outstanding rankings are not being propped up by a great early start to the season. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (918) versus the Detroit Tigers (917), listing both starting pitchers Cam Schlittler and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
