Will Rogers

You have to give Princeton credit for getting to the Sweet 16, but I feel that the Tigers have had a bit of a “charmed life” in getting thus far. The Ivy League Tournament, just a four-team affair, was played in their home gym. Then, in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they watched Arizona go stone cold down the stretch. Drawing Missouri in the second round was a favorable matchup for the 15-seed.

Creighton is by far the best defensive team that Princeton has seen in awhile. The Bluejays are Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

And Princeton has some worrisome offensive metrics. They’re currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%. 

At the same time, I don’t expect Creighton to shoot the three as well as they did against Baylor. They were 11 of 24 from behind the arc in that game. ShotQuality data indicates the Bluejays should have finished with about 11 fewer points.

Creighton was also 22 of 22 from the FT line in that win over Baylor. Not sure we see that kind of production again either. 10*

Phoenix is struggling mightily right now as over the last six games they are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. They are without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant heading into Sacramento Friday night.

A big problem for the Suns right now is free throw disparity. They simply are not getting to the line. The last time they attempted more FTs than their opponent was 2/26.

This six-game ATS slide began with a 128-119 home loss to Sacramento (as four-point favorites). Ayton had 22 points and 12 rebounds in that game. 

The Kings are looking to bounce back from back to back losses to Utah and Boston. Prior to those losses, the team had won seven of eight. They gave up 132 to the Celtics, but are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 130+ in the previous game. 

This is a key game in the Western Conference playoff picture. I just think it sets up well for the Kings, who are at home and clearly healthier than the Suns right now. 10*