Stephen Nover

It’s taken all season, but the Brewers’ bats have heated up. Milwaukee is averaging 6.3 runs in its last eight games. 

 The Reds should do plenty of scoring drawing Adrian Houser. He hasn’t been good since his first two starts of the season. Since then Houser’s gone 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA. Houser has a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts not getting out of the fifth inning in any of those starts.  Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in homers. Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting parks in the majors.  The total is less than 9,though, because Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Reds. He’s been outstanding this year. However, this is the first time all season Bauer is pitching on three day’s rest.  Bauer was tagged for two homers in a 5-0 loss to the White Sox this past Saturday. Those pitches weren’t mistake pitches either. Bauer said they were in the location he wanted.  That’s a red flag that maybe Bauer will be vulnerable pitching on less rest than normal.
  

Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin fell back to Earth giving up three first period goals in Tampa Bay’s 3-2 Game 2 Stanley Cup Finals win against the Stars on Monday. 

 The Lightning led the NHL in scoring during the regular season averaging 3.5 goals a game. Their puck movement was much better than it had been in Game 1, which was won by Dallas, 4-1. Tampa Bay seems to have its attack back on track and shouldn’t get so conservative and defensive-minded if building up an early lead again like it did on Monday.  Tampa Bay would catch a break, too, if Dallas’ Blake Comeau is out. Comeau is one of the Stars’ better defensive forwards. He’s a plus for the Under not the Over. Comeau is a game-time decision after getting injured in the last game. The Stars realize now they aren’t going to win if they never go on the attack. The Lightning are too deep and too talented. Dallas is averaging 4 goals a game following a playoff loss. So I expect to see the Stars play aggressive like they did against the Avalanche and to effectively counterpunch like they did against the Golden Knights. 
   

The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk – the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. 

 I’ve always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami’s bench outplaying the Celtics’ reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do.  I don’t look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday.  Instead it’s a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don’t present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston’s previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics’ guards and wings.  The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes.  The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them.  When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them.  It’s not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day’s rest.  Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made.   The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There’s not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn’t as talented as Boston, isn’t as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break.