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Both teams are playing better defense than their season numbers show. The Suns are giving up an average of 107.8 points in their last five games if you rule out the 127 points they surrendered to the Celtics two games ago. The Bucks have been playing much better defense since the coaching change to Doc Rivers, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games. This is what Rivers said about his coaching philosophy with the Bucks: “With our size, to me, if we’re going to get into that mud wresting or a track meet, I want the mud. It’s kind of fits what we should be.” There are other factors that point to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Phoenix is concluding it’s four-game, seven-day road trip here. This is a 10 a.m. west coast start time, too, for the Suns. So they could play slower than usual given their fatigue factor and unorthodox start time. The Bucks may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s questionable with a hamstring injury. That’s a nice bonus for the Under if he can’t play. Milwaukee will get Khris Middleton back from an ankle sprain. He’s missed the last 16 games due to ankle sprain. Middleton figures to be rusty, though, and it’s going to be an adjustment period for the Bucks’ offense to fit him back in.
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.
But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr.
The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don’t see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.
Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team’s met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.
Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn’t have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It’s not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season.
Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday.
The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let’s look at Toronto’s past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic.
This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn’t lack effort and motivation.