Sean Murphy

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.

I’ll keep my analysis brief with puck drop going shortly in Buffalo. Arizona will give Karel Vejmelka his first NHL start in goal while the Sabres go with Dustin Tokarski. Of course, the Yotes were involved in a wild 8-2 loss in Columbus two nights ago while Buffalo rolled to a blowout win over the Habs. Expect plenty of goals in this one as well, even with both teams fairly short on scoring depth up front. Take the over (5*).

My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the RedBlacks in this same matchup on Monday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the Alouettes in Saturday’s rematch in Ottawa. Montreal jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead less than three minutes into Monday’s contest. I think at that point the Als thought the game was going to be a cake-walk. It wasn’t. Ottawa battled but ultimately fell short once again, dropping to 2-7 on the season. Note that the RedBlacks didn’t score a single touchdown in that loss. In fact, you would have to go back nine quarters to find the last time Ottawa registered an offensive touchdown. Defense is where I expect the RedBlacks to struggle in this one, noting that they’ll be without a pair of key defenders due to injuries in Avery Williams and Praise Martin-Oguike. Williams has been one of the team’s top tacklers all season while Martin-Oguike has led their limited pass rush. For Montreal, all indications are that QB Vernon Adams Jr. will be good to go after leaving Monday’s game with a shoulder injury. The Als will also welcome back RB William Stanback after he missed Monday’s contest. Take Montreal (10*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Duke and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

The fact that the ‘under’ has cashed in Duke’s last two games and each of Virginia’s last three contests is the only thing keeping this number even reasonably in check on Saturday. I realize we’re working with a lofty total still, but I do think it could be even higher. Duke’s defense lacks the talent and experience to slow anyone down. Sure, the Blue Devils held FCS squad North Carolina A&T and a punchless Northwestern offense down earlier in the season but since then they’ve been flamed for 33, 38 and 31 points in games against Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Things certainly don’t get any easier against a Virginia offense that likes to bomb away, having attempted 40+ passes in five straight games and 57 or more in three of its last four contests. Back to Duke, its offense looks poised for a breakout here with QB Gunnar Holmberg settling in and throwing for touchdown passes in four straight games, topping the 290-yard mark three times over that stretch. He remains a threat to run as well, noting that he scored four rushing touchdowns in a game against Kansas back in late September. We’ve also seen RB Mataeo Durant emerge as a home run threat out of the backfield, running for over 100 yards in five of six games and north of 150 yards on two occasions this season. Virginia can’t help but get involved in shootouts on a weekly basis as it allows 5.2 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Were it not for nine turnovers in its last five games, Virginia’s offense would have posted monster numbers this season. As it is, the Cavaliers are still stuffing the boxscore, racking up over 400 passing yards in four of their last five games. Note that the Blue Devils haven’t had a lick of success against the pass this season, allowing 431 pass yards per game on a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Take the over (9*).

CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don’t count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they’ve forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week’s game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I’m confident we’ll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*).

MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

Akron managed to score 35 points in last week’s upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don’t count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It’s worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven’t been as bad as we’ve seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for ‘just’ 37 yards. It’s not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron’s opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we’ve been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there’s reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don’t think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning ‘style points’ – they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can’t put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they’ve held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the ‘under’ checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).