Sean Murphy

My selection is on Austin Peay minus the points over East Tennessee State at 2 pm et on Thursday.

This looks like a layup and we certainly hope it plays out that way on the court. Austin Peay is one of the favorites, if not the favorite in the Ohio Valley Conference this season. With a ton of returning talent led by standouts Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams who both declared for the NBA Draft before withdrawing and instead electing to return to Austin Peay for what could be a special season for the Governors, this is a team to watch in the early going. They will need to shake off some rust after posting a narrow victory in yesterday’s opener against Nebraska-Omaha. East Tennessee State on the other hand has had to restock virtually the entire cupboard following a tremendous 2019-20 season that had it primed to go bracket busting in March before Covid concerns took hold. It’s going to be a bit of a road back for for the Buccaneers and that was certainly evident in yesterday’s blowout loss to Abilene Christian. The Bucs shot worse than 30% from the floor in that game. They were blown out despite holding a decisive edge on the boards. While we can expect some improvement in their second game, they’re also facing a tougher matchup. While Belmont and Murray State gets much of the press in the Ohio Valley Conference, Austin Peay is set to stake its claim this season. Look for a convincing victory for the Governors on Thursday afternoon. Take Austin Peay (10*).

My selection is on Utah State plus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Thursday.

This is by no means a marquee matchup on Thanksgiving Night as two winless Mountain West squads go head-to-head in Utah. I’ll grab all the points I can get with the Aggies as this is certainly their best chance at winning a game this season as they face a Lobos team that has been living out of a suitcase all season due to Covid protocols in their home state. While Utah State had its most recent game against Wyoming canceled due to Covid-related personnel issues, we did see it show some signs of life in its prior contest, ultimately falling by a 35-16 score against Fresno State in a game that was still within reach until the fourth quarter. The Aggies obviously have major issues under center with starting QB Jason Shelley being dismissed from the program but if their offense is going to do anything on Thursday night, it’s going to be on the strength of their effective ground attack. It’s not as if Shelley was playing well – he was sacked six times in his most recent game and had barely managed to complete 50% of his passes while throwing only two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. RB Jaylen Warren ran for 136 yards on just nine rush attempts in his last game and has three rushing touchdowns in three games this season. The Aggies also boast one of the best kick returners in Mountain West history as WR Savon Scarver will be looking for a record-setting sixth return touchdown on Thursday night. The Lobos were a complete no-show on the road against Air Force last week (we won with Air Force in that game) and while they would certainly love to pick themselves up off the mat here, I’m not convinced they can win outright let alone cover the lofty pointspread. Again, I want to emphasize the fact that New Mexico hasn’t played a true home game all season (it’s lone “home” game was played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas against Nevada back on November 14th). I simply feel that at this stage of the season, this is a weary bunch that will be hard-pressed to put its best foot forward, even with the favorable matchup. Take Utah State (10*).

NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.

We frustratingly missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Texans most recent game – a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O’Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay – the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn’t get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).