Frank Sawyer

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). THE SITUATION: Purdue (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-13 upset loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (6-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 23-20 win against Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Boilermakers lost to the Golden Gophers despite holding them to just 300 total yards. Purdue has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a  home favorite against a Big Ten opponent. And while quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 34 of 52 passes for 371 yards in the losing effort, they have then played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Purdue has an underrated defense that is fifth in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate and tenth in points allowed per drive. They are allowing 15.4 PPG and 299.6 total YPG. But the Boilermakers’ offense is scoring just 23.6 PPG and only 5.5 Yards-Per-Play. They average just 90.2 rushing YPG with a 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry rushing clip. Furthermore, they play at a very slow pace averaging 25.5 seconds per play. They go back on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Purdue has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against conference opponents. Iowa beat the Nittany Lions despite only gaining 305 yards in that game — but they held Penn State to just 287 total yards. The Hawkeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Big Ten foe. Iowa has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Iowa has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are not efficient on offense with just a 36.5% success rate. They also play at a slow pace as they average 29.2 seconds-per-play. Iowa may score 31.5 PPG but they are generating just 317.5 total YPG. But the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite as they hold their opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 270.4 total YPG. They are tenth in the nation by allowing just 90.3 rushing YPG. Iowa has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games when favored — and they had played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and Purdue has played 5 straight Unders in October. While the number in the low-40s for this game makes the Under bet ominous, both these teams have great defenses and limited offenses that play at a slow pace. The first team to 20 points probably wins. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-2) looks to rebound from their 55-48 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago with their 24-114 win against Baylor as a 4-point favorite on October 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas blew a 41-23 lead to lose to the Sooners last week. The Longhorns did eclipse the 45 point mark last week for the third time this season. Under first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been explosive on offense averaging 44.5 PPG, fifth-best in the nation. Sarkisian has one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson who is third in the nation in rushing yards. But this offense became even more potent when Sarkisian moved to Casey Thompson as his starting quarterback. The fourth-year junior averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt last week against the Sooners’ defense. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 388 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Longhorns are scoring 52 PPG and generating 547.3 total YPG since Thompson became the starting quarterback. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Longhorns averaged 8.6 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. Texas did not commit more than one turnover last week for the sixth straight time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Oklahoma State committed three turnovers in their win against the Bears two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State is playing great defense this season — they are holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG. But despite that nice number, they rank just 105th in the nation in tackling effectiveness — a daunting metric when now facing Robinson who broke ten tackles last week. And while the Cowboys have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least four straight games. The Oklahoma State offense will struggle to keep up with the Longhorns. Their four victories against FBS opponents were by only 1, 5, 10, and 11 points. They are scoring just 25.4 PPG and averaging only 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has only thrown for five touchdown passes in five games — and he has committed six turnover-worthy plays. He threw three picks against Baylor in his last game. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. Look for the unbeaten Cowboys to get exposed this afternoon. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Texas Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.