Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 8/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the San Diego Padres with the money-line versus the Washington Nationals listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. San Diego (64-51) has won three straight games after their 10-5 victory against the Nationals last night. The Padres have won 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last game. They have won 12 of their last 16 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Washington (37-77) has lost eight of their last nine games — and they have then lost 16 of their last 18 games at home after losing five or six of their last seven contests. The Nationals have also lost 17 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Take San Diego with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 12 of 16 (75%) MLB run after losing the NY Yankees-Boston Over last night! Frank remains on a 19 of 29 (68%) MLB streak — and he spots a SUPER O/U SITUATION for Saturday! CA$H-IN Frank’s Saturday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (64-51) has won three straight games after their 10-5 victory against the Nationals in the opening game of this series. Washington (37-77) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have scored a combined 23 runs in their last two games as their lineup becomes accustomed to the additions of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. They have played 4 straight Overs after winning their last game. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-1-2 in their last 8 games on the road. Darvish gets the ball for San Diego with his 10-5 record along with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.47 and 3.62 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in his ten stars at home, those numbers rise to a 4.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 11 starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. The Padres have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Darvish on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He faces a Nationals’ team that is hitting the ball surprisingly well even after trading away Soto and Bell to them. Since August 3rd after that trade was completed, Washington ranks 10th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created — and the Over is 6-1-2 in those eight games. The Nationals have played The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games after a loss – and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher. They counter with Sanchez who has an 0-5 record this season with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander probably should be out of the league at this point — but the Nationals want him to eat innings the rest of the way while they conduct their soft tank to better position themselves for draft position. When he last pitched two years ago, he was saddled with a 6.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 11 starts which helps explain why he did not pitch in the majors last season. The sabermetrics project an ERA of 5.13 and 5.37 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. He has already allowed eight home runs in his 25 innings of work this year — and he surrendered 11 home runs in 53 innings back in 2020. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in August with Sanchez on the mound — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.