Frank Sawyer

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (535) and the Houston Rockets (536). THE SITUATION: Miami (10-14) has won three games in a row with their 98-96 win against New York as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Houston (11-13) has lost three in a row after their 130-101 loss at New Orleans on Tuesday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets allowed the Pelicans to nail 51.1% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. Houston has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Rockets have allowed at least 111 points in their last three games — but they have then played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in each of their last three games. Additionally, the Under is 37-18-2 in Houston’s last 57 games after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total as an underdog including four of these last five home games Under the Total when getting the points. Miami has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while they were called for 11 fewer fouls than the 25 personal fouls that the Knicks were called for on Tuesday, they have then played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total when playing on the road after a game where they were called for at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent. Getting healthy has helped head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team start playing better defense — they have held their last five opponents to just 42.3% shooting which is resulting in just 105.2 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Heat have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (535) and the Houston Rockets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 2/11:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list in college basketball on Thursday is with Over the Total in the game between Colorado and Stanford. Colorado (15-5) has won four of their last five games after their 78-49 win at home against Oregon State on Monday. The Buffaloes have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two in a row against Pac-12 foes. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Stanford has won their last two games with their 76-70 win against Cal on Sunday. The Cardinal has played five straight games Over the Total at home. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a NEAR PERFECT 11 of 12 (92%) CBB run even after losing their 25* CBB play on Georgia Tech last night! Frank remains on a 47 of 70 (67%) CBB run along with his long-running 83 of 131 (63%) CBB mark — and he furthers his 26 of 37 (70%) CBB Game of the Year/Month run with his 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year! DO NOT DARE MISS THIS ONE!

Frank is on a 63 of 94 (67%) run with their highest-rated 25* plays — and Frank furthers his 25 of 36 (69%) NBA 25* run with his 25* NBA Divisional Game of the Year for the first half of the regular season prior to the All-Star Break for Thursday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank was 1-1 in All-Sports on Wednesday (2/10) — CA$HING with UNC-Greensboro but losing his 25* CBB play on Georgia Tech (who blew a 6-point halftime lead) to continue his 18 of 29 (62%) All-Sports run since last Tuesday! Frank is on a 110 of 182 (60%) run since 12/26 that has continued his 139 of 232 (60%) mark over the last 63 days! BANK on Frank!

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). THE SITUATION: Stanford (12-7) has won two games in a row after their 76-70 win against California as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado (15-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 78-49 win against Oregon State as a 13-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINT(S): The Buffaloes made 55.8% of their shots for the second-straight game to defeat the Beavers. But Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. They also held Oregon State to just 32.7% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 50 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 foe — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games. Now after getting rich at home in the high-altitude of Boulder where they are 8-1 this season after a four-game homestand, they go back on the road for the first time since January 23rd. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their previous two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. Colorado ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their 3-pointers in Boulder, 8th best in the nation. But in their eight true road games on their opponent’s home court, the Buffaloes make only 29.7% of their 3-pointers, 269th in the nation, while falling to 68th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in true road games. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 56 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Stanford has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home against a Pac-12 foe. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after winning at least two in a row. The Cardinal made 58.3% of their shots against the Golden Bears — but that was the third straight game when they shot at least 51.9% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 55% in their last contest. This is a very tough team to beat if they are making their shots as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also 9th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They are 5-1 at home where they are making 51.4% of their shots while holding their guests to 41.1% shooting. Stanford is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games at home — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinal will be looking to avenge a 77-64 loss at Colorado on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with same-season revenge. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 2/11:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut in the NBA on Thursday is with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers and the Detroit Pistons. Indiana (12-13) has lost four in a row after their 104-94 upset loss at Brooklyn last night. The Over is then 12-5-1 in the Pacers’ last 18 games when playing without a day of rest. Indiana has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Detroit (6-18) snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 122-111 win against Brooklyn as a 5.5-point underdog. The Pistons have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Detroit has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 63 of 94 (67%) run with their highest-rated 25* plays — and Frank furthers his 25 of 36 (69%) NBA 25* run with his 25* NBA Divisional Game of the Year for the first half of the regular season prior to the All-Star Break for Thursday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is on a NEAR PERFECT 11 of 12 (92%) CBB run even after losing their 25* CBB play on Georgia Tech last night! Frank remains on a 47 of 70 (67%) CBB run along with his long-running 83 of 131 (63%) CBB mark — and he furthers his 26 of 37 (70%) CBB Game of the Year/Month run with his 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year! DO NOT DARE MISS THIS ONE!

Frank was 1-1 in All-Sports on Wednesday (2/10) — CA$HING with UNC-Greensboro but losing his 25* CBB play on Georgia Tech (who blew a 6-point halftime lead) to continue his 18 of 29 (62%) All-Sports run since last Tuesday! Frank is on a 110 of 182 (60%) run since 12/26 that has continued his 139 of 232 (60%) mark over the last 63 days! BANK on Frank!

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-13) has lost four games in a row after their 104-94 upset loss at Brooklyn last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (6-18) snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 122-111 upset win against the Nets as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made only 39.1% of their shots last night in what was the worst offensive effort of their season. The Pacers’ starting five scored only 51 points in that game. Indiana should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit upset loss. Indiana has not covered the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last seven — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And the Pacers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Indiana stays on the road where they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a favorite. The Pacers are without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert who they acquired in the Victor Oladipo trade — but they have still taken care of business with a 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. The Pistons play at a fast tempo who averages 89 shot attempts-per-game — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games against teams who average at least 88 shots-per-game. Detroit made 56% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort of their season in what was just the third time all season that they made at least 50% of their shots — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a point spread win. They did allow the Nets to make 50% of their shots on the heels of allowing the Laker to make 56.0% of their shots in their previous game. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Pistons are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Duane Casey is doing a fine job with one of the worst rosters in the league. Detroit is usually competitive — but they lost one of their best players over the weekend when they shipped Derrick Rose to New York for the underachieving Dennis Smith who was one of the worst players in the NBA last season before getting relegated to the end of the bench for the Knicks (!) this year. Maybe Smith can be salvaged but that will be a long-term project. Detroit shoots only 42.7% when playing at home so their shooting should come back to earth when now playing a team that attempts to play defense (versus the Kyrie Irving/James Harden Nets’ last night). The Pistons have scored 251 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Detroit is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against Central Division foes. And while this is a team that plays hard most nights, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their expected close games this season. Look for Indiana to take care of this business in this winnable game. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Paul Casey who is listed at +1800 to win this event at BetOnline. Dustin Johnson was the favorite to begin the week at short +400 odds — but after he withdrew from the event, the field is wide open. I love Casey when he is in form which is definitely the case right now. After finishing tied for 8th place three weeks ago at the PGA West, he crossed the pond to win on the European Tour in Dubai before finished tied for 12th place in Saudi Arabia. Casey finished the 2019-20 season 9th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 14th in Greens-In-Regulation. Casey leads the field this week in performances on courses with Poa greens over the last two years. He also ranks second in the field in performance on short courses over the last two years. He missed the cut here last year which increase his feisty level — but he finished in second place in 2019 after a tie for 8th place in 2018. Casey also is 10th in the field when playing on the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses the last two seasons. Casey is linked with Max Homa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head proportions this week. Homa has three top-25s in three of his last four events but he comes off a 42nd place last week at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open. The Cal-Berkeley grad is a regular at this event — and he has 14th and 10th place finishes the last two seasons. But I worry about his underlying numbers for the 2020-21 season. He ranks 102nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 187 in Greens-In-Regulation. He also ranks 124th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Casey (7133) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head betting propositions versus Homa (7134). Best of luck for us — Frank.