Bryan Power

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This seems to be an awfully low price on the Dodgers at home for what looks to be a favorable matchup. Let’s first confirm what you already know and that’s the Dodgers are a very good baseball team. They are well on their way to a 100+ win season and have outscored the opposition by 240 runs. They’re especially dominant here at home where they’ve gone 56-20 while outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs per game. They are – by a pretty wide margin – #1 in all of MLB in runs allowed at home (just 3.2 per game) and here are facing a Rays lineup that loses the DH.  It’s rare to see a price like this (on the home team) at Chavez Ravine, so take advantage. 

Tampa Bay comes into this series fighting for its playoff life. They currently occupy the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League, but have a brutal upcoming schedule that has them taking on both the Red Sox and Yankees after these two games in LA. The Rays do have a good road record, but here are facing a team w/ the most home wins in all of baseball. Based on my preseason projections, the Rays have overachieved to this point. Might regression come at the worst possible time for them? 

Tampa Bay probably feels pretty good about sending southpaw Blake Snell to the mound for Tuesday’s matchup. Snell has pitched great recently as the team has won his last four starts, two of them coming against the Yankees. But the Dodgers are better than the Yankees and counter here w/ Ross Stripling, who has a 2.45 ERA and 0.727 WHIP his L3 starts. The problem w/ Snell is that he has a 5.98 ERA and 1.479 WHIP on the road. I do not think he’ll get much in the way of run support in this game and that’s an obvious problem facing a team like the Dodgers, who can score in bunches.  10* LA Dodgers 

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D’backs came into this series having lost seven of nine, but a matchup w/ the Marlins (at home) is tailor-made for a turnaround. Sure enough, they took last night’s series opener by a score of 7-5. It may not have been easy as the home team needed to score four times in the seventh after giving up five in the top half of that inning. But they got the job done and things should go a lot more smoothly tonight. I say that not only because Miami is an awful team, but also due to the fact they’re facing a starter who really struggles on the road. With a +60 run differential on the year, Arizona is better than you think and should win here rather easily.

By just about every measure, Miami is the worst team in the National League. Of course, that was to be expected. But still, their offense is beyond putrid as all but three teams (Detroit, KC, White Sox) have scored at least 100 more runs than they have over the course of the year. Caleb Smith gets the start for the Fish Tuesday. While he’s looked good at home, we alluded to his struggles on the road earlier. Smith is 2-6 in his 12 road starts and the team has lost his last five starts overall, the last two even coming at home. His last two on the road saw him allow a total of 12 runs. There is also the issue that Smith has reached a career-high in innings pitched for a season.

While there’s really no discernible reason to like the Marlins in this spot, there’s plenty to back the D’backs. They send rookie Alex Young to the mound this evening in search of his eighth win in 14 tries. On September 7th, Young set a new franchise rookie record w/ 12 K’s vs. the Reds. The follow-up to that (vs. the Mets last Thursday) was not good, but was also on the road. Back when Arizona visited Miami in late July, they won only one of four games. But that one win came w/ Young on the bump. The D’backs do still have an outside shot at a playoff berth and are simply a much better team than the Marlins. 8* Arizona

6* Boston (7:10 ET): After sweeping the Phillies on the road, the Red Sox now get to host an Interleague series. While it’s been a disappointing campaign in Beantown, one that recently saw the team fire its GM less than one year after winning the World Series, this is still – by most objective measures – a really solid ballclub. They’re on a pace to win about 87 games and have outscored their opponents by 83 runs. Even though their playoff hopes are all but dead, they’ve won three straight after taking the two games in Philly over the weekend. Perhaps most head-scratching of all is that the Red Sox have a losing record at Fenway Park this year (36-39) despite actually outscoring opponents by a half-run per game here. Look for them to snap a three-game home losing streak tonight. 

The Red Sox may be disappointing, but they are still better than the overrated Giants. Sure, it may seem odd to point to a team that’s six games below .500 and call them “overrated.” But the reality of the matter is that the Giants have been “saved” by an extremely fortunate 35-15 record in one-run games this year. They’ve actually been outscored by 78 runs, meaning they’ve played to the level of a team that “should” be 18 games below .500! As I’ve said before when fading San Francisco, it’s one of the largest gaps between actual and expected wins in all of baseball. 

I’ll concede that the Giants are a better offensive team on the road and do benefit from having a DH in this series. But they still should be unable to keep pace w/ a Red Sox lineup that averages 5.6 rpg here at home. Only Colorado (obviously) and Houston (best team in baseball) score at a higher rate at home. This means trouble for Giants’ starter Logan Webb, who already has an 8.25 ERA and 1.945 WHIP on the road. His last road start saw him surrender eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings and that was vs. a NL team. Boston will counter w/ Nathan Eovaldi, who has yet to win a single decision in nine tries. We’ll look past that – and his poor history vs. the Giants – as the Red Sox are due to win one at home (went 2-4 on most recent homestand vs. two first place teams – Yankees & Twins) and probably finish the season strong. 6* Boston

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates are coming off a series w/ the Cubs that was absolutely horrific for them. Not that this season has been very good in the Steel City, but giving up 47 runs in three games to the Cubbies (not a misprint) could very well have been the nadir. It’s also been a rough stretch for tonight’s starter Mitch Keller, who has a 10.97 ERA and 1.968 WHIP his L3 starts. But he and the Bucs should benefit tonight from facing a Mariners team that is playing w/o a DH (NL rules) and has a struggling starter of its own on the hill. We offer a rare endorsement of the Pirates tonight.

Tonight will mark the 32nd start of the season for the Mariners’ Marco Gonzales. There are only three other pitchers – in all of baseball – entering today that have made at least 32 starts. He and Yusei Kikuchi are the only two on the M’s staff w/ more than 13 starts. While he may have proven himself to be durable, Gonzales’ results have been mediocre at best and not good at all when you look at the last two road starts. He gave up 11 runs in 11 IP at Houston and Texas and walked more batters (7) than he struck out (2). Something else to consider here is the unfamiliar environment for Seattle. They haven’t visited PNC Park since 2016. This is a team that is just 27-46 on the road this season.

Keller is considered a top prospect for Pittsburgh, so something should be expected from him. Here at home is where he would be expected to turn things around. In three starts so far at PNC Park, his numbers have been good (2.13 ERA, 1.026 WHIP). Again, he stands to benefit from facing a Mariners lineup that is w/o a DH. While Pirates’ pitching just got crushed by the Cubs, Seattle has been no better in that department, giving up four 10+ run games in its L10. The Pirates are also 12-5 vs. the American League this season and 37-20 L57 Interleague Games. That’s tied for the third most IL wins among NL teams this year. 8* Pittsburgh