Bryan Power

10* Over Tigers/Angels (9:38 ET): The home team took yesterday’s series opener by a score of 7-5. Scoring had actually been pretty tame until the 7th when Taylor Ward’s grand slam broke the game open. It was 7-1 at that point and while the Tigers were able to put four runs on the board in the final two innings, the rally ended up being futile. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Detroit as they’d previously swept the Royals in KC. Meanwhile, the Angels snapped a three-game losing skid as they’d previously been swept out in Oakland. They are now 4-0 L4 home games. 

But the streak that I’m more concerned with here is the Angels having now gone Over in seven straight. During this time, they scored an average of 6.3 runs per game while also giving up 6.0. They are also 11-1 Over their L12 games. They’ve played six home games in that stretch and averaged 7.7 rpg in them. Facing the struggling Jose Urena tonight, the Angels production at the plate should continue. Urena has a 7.29 ERA and 1.783 WHIP his L3 starts and gave up eight runs while lasting only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out. It would be even better (for the Angels) if 3B Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup today. 

The Angels may need all the offense they can muster as Alex Cobb has been knocked around for five runs in each of his L2 starts. The Tigers come in having pounded out 10 or more hits in four consecutive games. The Over is 7-2 their last nine, so we’ve got both teams having been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. Neither bullpen is good either (something we saw last night). The Over is 46-19-2 in the Angels’ last 67 home games and 7-0 (anywhere) if they scored 5+ runs in their last game. Detroit is 6-0 Over its L6 vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Tigers/Angels

8* Over Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): Even with Jose Berrios starting today’s series opener, Minnesota ought not to be too confident. This club is grossly underachieving in 2021. Priced as a 43-win team, the Twins’ record is just 27-41 as they are one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball. Back to Berrios, the team is 6-0 in his last six starts. But only a couple of those games have been low-scoring. In the four games since Berrios last pitched, the Twins have surrendered 10+ runs twice. Berrios has a 5.75 ERA in four previous starts vs. Texas. I see this one going Over the total.

Texas is glad to be back home as they’ve lost 19 of their last 20 road games. They are buried in last place in the AL West with a 25-43 record and considering how there’s already an 8.5-game gap between them and fourth place, expect this to be a cellar dweller for the rest of the season. Prior to yesterday’s off day, the Rangers dropped two in a row in Houston. The Over is 4-0-1 their L5 games, which includes a disastrous outing from tonight’s starter Mike Foltynewicz, who allowed eight runs in 2 ⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last Friday. 

The Twins have allowed the most runs in the American League this season. So that’s some home for a Texas lineup that’s only topped four runs one time in its last nine games. I don’t see Berrios pitching as well as he did vs. Houston last Saturday where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP. He still gave up 2 HRs and five of his eight strikeouts came on called strikes. Minnesota, who also had Thursday off, beat Seattle 7-2 the last time they took the field. They are 17-3-1 Over their L21 after allowing two runs or less in the previous game. They are also 4-0 Over following an off day. Foltynewicz has been horrible for the Rangers with a 9.45 ERA and 1.799 WHIP his L3 starts. 8* Over Twins/Rangers

8* Over Jazz/Clippers (10:05 ET): Injuries have played a vital role in this series. Mike Conley has yet to suit up in the second round for Utah while Donovan Mitchell continues to deal with an ankle injury. Things are more serious for the Clippers, who have lost Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard. But they were the ones to step up in Game 5 with a 119-111 upset (as 8-point underdogs) and one more win would mean they’re on to the Conference Finals, a place no Clippers team has even been before. Despite these key injuries, I still see Game 6 going Over the total. Every game in the series has seen at least 221 total points scored.

I learned my lesson taking the Under in the last game. It actually was still in play late in the 4th quarter despite the teams combining for 125 points in the first half and 175 through three quarters. But it ended up being the second highest scoring game of the series. Maybe the Clippers don’t shoot 51% again without Leonard, but this was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season and they’ve been above 40% in each of the L3 games. They are now back at home where theoretically the role players should shoot better. Even without Leonard, I still see the Clips getting to 110 points.

Utah was the league’s 2nd best three-point shooting team in the regular season. They put up 54 attempts in Game 5 and made 20. While it was their most 3PA in any game in the series, they previously made 20 on just 39 attempts in Game 2. This is a team that has five scorers averaging at least 15 PPG. One of them (Conley) is out, but Mitchell is averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason and Bojan Bogdanovic made nine threes in the last game for 32 points. The Jazz average 115 PPG on the road and should get to that number here. They are 8-2 Over in all playoff games. 8* Over Jazz/Clippers

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): It is almost incomprehensible to me that the 76ers are now trailing in this series. They’ve outscored Atlanta by 22 points. They’ve shot better than 50 percent from the field (51.3% to be exact) in the five games, including 46 of 104 (44%) from three-point range in the last four. One could argue that the series should actually be over, or at the very least it should be Philly leading 3-2 headed into Friday’s Game 6. But after blowing leads of 18 and 26 points in the L2 games, the Sixers now face elimination for the first time in these playoffs. While the last loss was completely demoralizing, I think they will step up to the challenge. Lay the points.

Both Philly wins have been by 16 points while Atlanta’s three have been by 10 points … total! Not since a shockingly good Game 1 performance (where I took them) has Atlanta enjoyed a double digit advantage in any game in this series. The 76ers have been up double digits in each of the last four games! But none of that matters now after they shockingly blew a 72-46 lead (at home!) with just over 20 minutes to go in Game 5. The past two games have seen the Sixers shoot substantially better than the Hawks. But they’ve taken 26 fewer FG attempts and struggled from the FT line. That’s how you blow 18+ point leads in consecutive games.

The good news from Game 5 – if you’re a Philly fan – is that Joel Embiid had 37 points. That was a nice bounce back from his 0 for 12 effort in the second half of Game 4. Seth Curry helped Embiid out with 36 points, a career playoff-high. But the rest of the team totaled only 33 points. Expect that number to rise in Game 6. Atlanta is without its best defender, DeAndre Hunter, which is eventually going to catch up with them. I realize the Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the 76ers easily could have won both Games 3 and 4 here. They are 10-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They’ll stay alive. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Chile/Bolivia (5:00 ET): It was certainly an “ominous” road to the Copa America tournament, but here we are. Chile is likely thrilled to have shared the points with Argentina in a 1-1 draw in their opener. Meanwhile, Bolivia got buried by Paraguay 3-1 and is looking to bounce back here. I see a pretty low-scoring match taking place on Friday, much lower scoring than Bolivia’s first encounter as all three goals they conceded came after a red card. Chile will be without the lone player that scored for them against Argentina. I’m on the Under here. 

After a Lionel Messi free kick put Chile in an early 1-0 hole, Eduardo Vargas was able to equalize in the 57th minute, giving La Roja a key point. It was their third consecutive 1-1 draw across all competitions. Certainly, an argument could be made that Chile could have easily lost the opener as Argentina missed several scoring opportunities. But the good news here is that Bolivia lacks the firepower of Argentina. In addition to being without Jaume Cuellar, who drew the red card vs. Paraguay, five other Bolivian players are out due to COVID-19. 

Thus, I’d be surprised to see Chile concede at all on Friday. At the same time, I don’t see them rolling like Paraguay did in the second half against Bolivia. When these sides met earlier this month in World Cup Qualifying, it was another of those 1-1 draws for Chile. Bolivia has scored only four goals in its last five fixtures with Chile. La Roja is not only going to be without Vargas, their lone goal scorer from the first match, but also Alexis Sanchez as he’s been ruled out for the rest of the group stage. It’s tough to see where the goals come from in this one. 10* Under Chile/Bolivia

10* Sweden (9:00 AM ET): I think it’s fair to say that both of these sides walked away happy from their respective first Euro Cup matches. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to jump out to the early lead in Group E. But I was far more impressed with Sweden, who kept a clean sheet in a crucial draw with Group E favorite Spain. The winner on Friday will find themselves in GREAT shape when it comes to progressing on to the knockout stage and I think that’s going to be Sweden, who has won five of its last six across all competitions.

Slovakia definitely had some things go their way on the opening matchday. An “own goal” by Poland (18th minute) gave the Falcons the early 1-0 lead. Then after letting things get tied up, the match took a dramatic swing in the 62nd minute when Poland’s Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off with a red card. Just seven minutes later, Slovakia got the game winner from Milan Skriniar. Such good fortune is unlikely to go their way again, so look for the Falcons to struggle to find the back of the net in this second match. They actually lost the possession battle to Poland. 

Sweden also lost the possession battle vs. Spain and certainly they could have conceded on multiple occasions. But they were able to hold on for the 0-0 draw and pick up a point. They are the better side here and deserve to be favored. Having failed to make the knockout stage of any Euro Cup since 2004, Sweden will be the more motivated side here. They’ve never lost to Slovakia in five all-time meetings (two wins, three draws) and while Slovakia is also unbeaten in their last six across all competitions, only two of those were wins. Going back further, Slovakia has only won twice inside of 90 minutes in their L13 chances. 10* Sweden