Bryan Power

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): LSU is going to have a non-scholarship QB taking snaps in this game. That sounds bad. The reason for the situation is because starter Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M, backup Myles Brennan is hurt and freshman Garrett Nussmeier didn’t want to lose his redshirt by playing. In addition to this dire circumstance under center, LSU barely has enough players (reportedly only 44 on scholarship still available) to suit up for this game because of COVID. And they have an interim coaching staff that probably could care less about winning. You’ve absolutely got to fade the Tigers here. 

Meanwhile, Kansas State has no COVID issues and is dealing with zero opt-outs. The Wildcats are getting their starting QB (Skylar Thompson) back from injury and clearly will be the more motivated side in the Texas Bowl Tuesday night. This is a chance for KSU to beat a SEC school and end its season on a positive note. They lost the final two regular season games and were without Thompson in the finale vs. Texas (only lost 22-17). In the last three games that Thompson has finished, the Wildcats averaged 33.3 PPG.

Even when they were at full strength, something they are not close to being tonight, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. It was a 6-6 regular season in Baton Rouge and the only teams the Tigers defeated by more than seven points were: McNeese State, Central Michigan and LA Monroe, all games where they were favored by at least 19.5 points. Tonight is setting up to be a real embarrassment for the LSU program, almost as embarrassing as incoming HC Brian Kelly faking a southern accent in his first public appearance in front of the fanbase. 10* Kansas State

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): Providence comes into this game ranked #16 in the country. But despite the Friars being on an eight-game win streak, my own personal power ratings are unimpressed, saying that not only does this team NOT deserve to be in the Top 25, but they are not even a Top 40 team in the country right now! The defensive numbers have been solid, but let’s see how the Friars perform here when they are playing a second straight “true” road game, a first for them this season. 

Marquette is going to be desperate here as they have not won a home game since 11/30. Coming off a double overtime loss to Creighton on New Year’s Day, a game where they were down by as many as 17, Shaka Smart’s team is certainly due to turn things around. The Golden Eagles have now dropped their last three at home, shooting less than 40 percent in those losses. Again, you’ve got to figure that number will improve here, even if they are facing a team that has posted a very strong defensive FG% on the year. 

One thing I do not see happening for Providence tonight is them shooting 8 of 15 (53.3%) from three-point range again, like they did in Saturday’s win at DePaul. Incredibly, the Friars have held their three previous Big East opponents to 33.3% shooting, which is astronomically low. You almost have to figure that number is going to go up and with Marquette’s own shooting due to IMPROVE, tonight seems like a “perfect storm” of sorts for the home team to pull an “upset.” Providence is only averaging 61.4 PPG on 38.9% shooting away from home. 10* Marquette

8* Air Force (9:00 ET): There are still three undefeated teams in College Basketball. One is #1 Baylor. The second is #7 USC, who I’d say is slightly overrated (but still a Top 20 team). The third is Colorado State. Because they are 10-0, the Rams are obviously ranked. But my power ratings consider them to be just barely one of the top 35 teams in America. While it’s unlikely that CSU’s first loss comes tonight, I do think that this is a lot of points to lay in what will be their first time taking the court in over three weeks. 

Air Force is 8-4 SU. They just pulled a massive upset in their game, beating Utah State 49-47 as 13-point dogs. That was actually the fourth straight game where the Flyboys did not score 50 points. The previous three were all double digit losses on the road. Let the record show that Utah State is one of the better Mountain West teams, so the AFA isn’t going to be intimidated heading into Fort Collins tonight. If anything, they should be supremely motivated facing an undefeated (and ranked) opponent. 

COVID is obviously the reason for Colorado State’s long layoff. They had three postponements in December and don’t be surprised if the conference’s best shooting team comes out a little “cold” tonight. Air Force has held six different opponents below 40% shooting this season, including Utah State last week. That the Falcons were able to win that game, while shooting just 1 of 19 from three-point range, was pretty remarkable. They’ll shoot better from deep tonight and because they play at such a slow tempo, should easily stay within the number. They’ve had fewer cancellations, thus will be in better “game shape.” 8* Air Force

8* Michigan (7:05 ET): So both these teams are 7-5 straight up. That’s definitely surprising on the Michigan side as the Wolverines were once ranked as high as #4 in the country in the early part of the season. Juwan Howard’s team comes into Tuesday’s game off a pretty shocking 85-71 loss at UCF, a game they led at the half. But the Maize and Blue simply could not get stops in the second half of that game as their opponents shot a preposterous 72 percent, including 8 for 8 from three-point range. 

It’s highly unlikely that Rutgers – or any future Michigan opponent for that matter – is going to shoot the ball that well again this season. The Scarlet Knights do have an impressive win on their resume, beating then #1 Purdue at the buzzer back on December 9th. They’ve subsequently wrapped up non-conference play with easy wins over Maine and Central Conn State. While the Scarlet Knights are 7-1 at home so far (0-4 on the road), this is going to be a tough game for them. They have never beaten Michigan since joining the Big 10. 

I believe the Wolverines are set to turn things around now that conference play is in full effect. My power ratings still consider them to be among the Top 25 teams in the nation, despite their disappointing record. Note that they’ve won by double digits off each of their previous four losses. Rutgers isn’t even the top 100 in my power ratings and they have a lower efficiency rating both offensively and defensively compared to Michigan. Lay the points. 8* Michigan