Bryan Power

10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): The Blue Bombers have emerged as one of the CFL’s top teams this year as they are the only unbeaten remaining at 4-0. But that’s only part of the reason why they are such prohibitive favorites this week against the REDBLACKS. Thanks to an injury to starting QB Dominque Davis, Ottawa is going w/ Jonathan Jennings at the pivot this week. An offseason signing, Jennings has never started for the Redblacks previous to this. It’s a tough spot and to make matters worse, the team is reeling having gone 0-3 SU/ATS the L3 games. Lay the number.

Winnipeg is off to its first 4-0 start in decades. The franchise hasn’t started a year 5-0 since 1960 when they went 14-2 and won the Grey Cup. But this group looks to be something special as they’ve won every game by at least seven points, including 29-14 at Ottawa back in Week 4. The Bombers were actually four-point underdogs in that game, so obviously a lot has changed since then. The biggest is the Redblacks QB situation, but also it’s become quite clear that the Bombers are among the league’s elite teams this year. (Really, it’s either them or Hamilton for #1).

Winnipeg is giving up the fewest points in the league right now (19.7 per game) while also averaging 34.5 PPG themselves. So as you can see, this really is a tough spot for Jennings to come in and make his Ottawa debut. The Redblacks have all of three passing TD’s this year and all of them came in the Week 2 win over Sasktachewan. Since then, they’ve scored only 33 points (at a time when scoring is way up across the CFL) including last week’s very disappointing 36-19 home loss to Montreal. Given how the Bombers dominated them the first time around, I can’t see how this game goes any better for the Redblacks. 10* Winnipeg

8* Milwaukee (9:40 ET): While it may seem odd that Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers are favored in this spot, the fact is that Arizona simply isn’t a very good home team. That point was reiterated last night as the D’backs returned to Chase Field off two big offensive games in Texas, and scored just one run in a loss to Brew Crew. I think it goes beyond just the DH (which they got to enjoy having the previous two games) though. At home this year, the D’backs are now 20-23 and see a significant decrease in offensive production, down to 4.4 runs per game from 5.7 on the road. I’m siding w/ the surging visitors in this one. 

Chacin may seem like a bit of a risk here given he’s 0-6 his L10 starts and 1-8 on the road this year. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.63 WHIP away from Miller Park, but recent performances have been much better and would seem to indicate a turnaround is forthcoming. Chacin has allowed just five runs total his L3 starts (16 IP) and has allowed only two runs in each of his past two road starts, including a quality effort at Cincinnati on 7.3. The problem in both of those starts is that the Brewers’ offense was shutout. They’ve since turned it around w/ a three-game win streak, including a 13-run effort Tuesday vs. Atlanta. 

Arizona’s Taylor Clarke will be making his first start since July 2nd here. He’s been on the DL the last 15 days, but I don’t think just time off can cure all that ails him as Clarke has a very poor ERA (6.92) and WHIP (1.692) in his nine starts overall. Again, he shouldn’t expect much run support here given the drop off we see from D’backs offense here at home. The Brewers are actually 6-1 vs. the D’backs since the start of last season and what’s really incredible is that Arizona hasn’t scored more than two runs in any of those seven contests! With Adrian Houser back in a relief role, I like Milwaukee’s bullpen alot more now as well. 8* Milwaukee

10* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): Baltimore’s pitching staff is obviously atrocious, but their best starter is going tonight in what should be an excellent starting pitching matchup overall w/ David Price. John Means is the starter in question here for the O’s and he, the team’s lone All-Star, has a 3.11 ERA and 1.099 WHIP this season. Means is off his worst outing of the year as he gave up six runs to Tampa Bay in a 12-4 loss, but should bounce back here as the Red Sox aren’t hitting like they used to and Means has had prior success against them. Take the Under. 

With the struggles of Chris Sale, Price has become the de facto ace of this Boston rotation. Price is having a really good year as he has a 3.16 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 17 starts. His record is 7-2. Also, Price has really had Baltimore’s number through the years. He’s 16-5 w/ a 2.65 ERA all-time against them and that include a perfect 8-0 w/ a 2.72 ERA here at Camden Yards. The Red Sox bullpen should be bolstered by the returning Nathan Eovaldi and it’s not like Baltimore’s hitting is any good either. In five of the six games since the Break, the Orioles have scored 4 runs or less. Three times they’ve scored two runs or less.

So it’s basically all on Means to keep this one competitive, a tough ask seeing as Baltimore is 5-32 the L37 times it has been a home underdog of +175 or more. Boston is 35-9 the L44 times it has been a road fave of -175 or higher. Despite Means struggling his last time out, he still sports a 0.889 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s given up 3 ER or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts this season. In three starts against Boston, he’s allowed a total of four runs in 17 IP. By the way, Boston won in shutout fashion yday, beating Toronto 5-0. 10* Under Red Sox/Orioles