Bryan Power

8* LA Clippers (7:35 ET): If Kawhi Leonard was playing tonight, this line would obviously be higher. But even after factoring in Leonard’s absence and the Pacers’ home court “advantage,” the number looks a little low to me. The Clippers are a hot team right now as they’ve won five in a row by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Keeping up with the Jazz and Suns is imperative. Without Kawhi, they were able to defeat Detroit 131-124 on Sunday. As I’ll get into momentarily, Indiana’s home record is shockingly poor.

While the Clippers are trying to inch closer to the top of the Western Conference, Indiana is just trying to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Pacers are in 9th place and that’s with a three-game win streak coming into tonight. Those wins – which were against Minnesota, Orlando and Memphis – have them within two games of .500. The mediocre overall won-loss record is largely owed to the fact they are 9-15 SU (7-17 ATS) at home, one of the worst such records in the entire league this year.

So there’s really no “home court advantage” for the Pacers here. Myles Turner is out for them and defensively there are issues with two of the last three opponents scoring at least 125. The Clippers are #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and while not having Leonard hurts a little, they still have Paul George, who went for 32 against the Pistons. When these teams met in January, the Clippers ran away with a 129-96 victory as seven different players finished in double figures. 8* LA Clippers

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros suffered a rather embarrassing setback last night. They fell 6-2 to the Tigers as starter Zack Greinke really struggled, giving up all six runs in just 4 ⅔ innings of work. The chances of losing to the lowly Tigers twice in a row, at home, seems small though. So we’re backing the hosts on Tuesday as they’d gotten off to a great start to the season before losing three in a row, all here at home. They still have a +19 run differential, which is second best in the entire American League.

Detroit, now 4-6 on the young season, has the second WORST run differential among AL teams at -21. So as the odds indicate, this is a mismatch on paper. Last night was the Tigers’ first road win of 2021 as they’d been swept in Cleveland over the weekend. Over the last three seasons, they are 37-76 away from Comerica Park, including 17-32 as an underdog of +125 to +175. Last night was also just the second win by the Tigers in the L11 meetings w/ Houston. The Astros should be highly motivated to bounce back from such an embarrassing defeat.

A couple of late solo homers allowed Houston to avoid being shutout last night, which would have been REALLY embarrassing. But it should be noted they were 0 for 11 with RISP. Look for more timely hitting tonight against Matthew Boyd, whose strikeout to walk ratio has steadily decreased over the past two seasons. The Astros counter with Jake Odorizzi, who will be making his 2021 debut. Odorizzi has not pitched much since a career-year in 2019 with Minnesota. Detroit has NOT hit well so far, so this is an ideal first trip to the mound. 8* Houston

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns used a big 1st half, which included a NBA record 18 made three-pointers, to roll to a 126-120 victory last night over Houston. The good news is that the hot start enabled them to go on “cruise control” down the stretch, important since they were in the front end of this back to back. The bad news is for anyone who bet them as a 23-point halftime advantage wound up shrinking down to six by the final whistle as the Suns failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites. I’ll “swoop in” tonight though and take them laying a much shorter number.

Since the start of March, Miami has been very hot and cold. They went on a five-game winning streak, then a six-game losing streak and are now 6-1 SU their L7 games. Sunday night, the Heat began what will be a four-game road trip with a 107-98 win in Portland. As is the case with Phoenix here, the Blazers were in the second night of a back to back. Miami actually built a 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. But this is a much more challenging opponent set for Tuesday as the Suns are 30-8 their L38 games including 8-1 L9.

Phoenix is 2nd in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind Utah, who lost last night. While the Heat have had the Suns’ number in the past (20-6 ATS L26 head to head meetings, 11-1 ATS L12 here in Phoenix), the last two matchups have gone Phoenix’s way. That includes a 110-100 win in Miami last month as two-point favorites. Though the Heat are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, they still have a negative point differential on the season. The Suns don’t have to travel for this back to back (last night’s game was also at home) and they are 5-1 SU this season in the 2nd of B2B home games, winning by an average of 9.3 PPG. They are the much better side here. 10* Phoenix