Bryan Power

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Colorado has won four of five – all on the road. That’s odd considering they are still a terrible 22-51 away from home this season. I just can’t see this recent road “surge” continuing against a Braves team I have a lot of respect for. It was about a month ago that I predicted the Braves were about to make a move in the NL East and that’s exactly what happened. Since August 2nd, they’ve gone 24-13 and have taken a 4.5 game division lead. My confidence in them stems from a YTD run differential that’s vastly superior to the rest of the teams in their division. They’ve outscored opponents by 99 runs in 2021 while every other NL East club has been outscored. Look for the Braves to win Wednesday.

It was 5-4 Rockies last night, although the Braves had one more hit. Colorado typically struggles to score runs when they’re not swinging the bats in Coors Field. They average just 3.4 runs per game on the road while batting a collective .215. The 2.4 rpg gap between what they average at home vs. the road is easily the largest in all of MLB. The striking home vs. road split is nothing new for this franchise, but this year has seen them take it to a bit of an extreme. Speaking of struggling on the road, Wednesday’s starter Antonio Senzatela has a 2-9 team start record away from home. He’s been good recently, including a win over the Braves earlier this month, but I don’t expect that to continue here. 

Atlanta will send Huascar Ynoa to the mound tonight. You wouldn’t know it from his rather pedestrian WL record, but Ynoa has pitched very well this season, especially at home where he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.843 WHIP. Ynoa came out on the losing end against Senzatela on September 3rd, so he’s got a little “personal revenge” to exact Wednesday. Ynoa allowed just two runs on three hits over 5 IP last Thursday against Washington, a game that the Braves won 7-6. The Braves have lost B2B games only one time in September. While those losses were both against Colorado, that was in Coors Field. The Rockies are just 14-44 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 the L3 seasons. 7* Atlanta

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I lost with the Mets yesterday. It was a painful defeat as Javy Baez tied the game 4-4 in the bottom of the ninth with a HR. But it wasn’t meant to be as the home team failed to score in the 10th (despite having a runner at third with only one out) and then the Cardinals struck back for three runs in the top of the 11th. The Mets did manage to score twice in their final at-bat, but that still left them one short. They now are four games back of the Braves for the division lead and 5.5 games behind the Cardinals for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Cards have won four in a row to move to six games over .500 for the first time in over three months. But this feels like a “sell high” opportunity as they still have a near-identical YTD run differential as the Mets. 

The Mets normally don’t give up a ton of runs here at Citi Field. The 3.5 per game that they allow are the third fewest of any team at home in all of MLB. Only the Dodgers and Rays – two of the best teams – allow fewer. Opposing teams have hit just .216 here for the season. So it’s definitely been surprising to see St. Louis come in and put up seven runs in two straight games. It’s not like the Cardinals are some offensive powerhouse either. The good news for the Mets is that Tylor Megill, who is starting today, is coming off perhaps his best outing of the season. He held the Yankees to just two runs and four hits over seven innings last Friday and had 10 strikeouts. 

The Mets are 20-7 as home favorites of -125 to -175 this season, so if Megill can produce a start similar to what we saw from him his last time out, then you’ve got to figure they’ll be in good shape here. They led going into the eighth inning last night and I thought they should have won it in the 10th. Unfortunately, Francisco Lindor’s inning-ending double play was a killer. The Mets will face Jon Lester tonight and while Lester has been good of late, he has a 4.96 ERA and 1.677 WHIP on the road, so I am expecting some regression. The Mets have had poor luck in one-run games down the stretch (4-15 L19), but I think they are due for a win in this one. Look for them to avoid the sweep at home. 10* NY Mets

8* Boston (4:10 ET): I generally do not hesitate to fade Seattle, though this will be my first time taking a position in this series. Now I know that betting against the Mariners has generally not been wise in 2021. They are up 26.3 units, which is second most overall, only trailing a Giants team that is way out in front of everybody. But I’ve been selective about going against them and actually have a pretty strong record to show for it. As I’ve made clear throughout the year, the M’s are completely overrated and nowhere near as good as their record (now 78-65). They’ve been outscored by 60 runs, a differential where you’d expect them to only have 66 wins. No other team in MLB has exceeded its expected win total by more than five! 

Mariners’ manager Scott Servais using the term “fun differential” (to mock his team’s poor run differential) quite frankly makes me nauseous. So I was happy to see his team lose 8-4 last night here at home to the Red Sox. That was after they won by one-run in Monday’s opener. No team has more one-run wins this season than Seattle’s 31, which is why they are the only team in the American League to have a winning record and negative run differential. The offense ranks dead last in baseball in batting average plus they are bottom five in both OBP and slugging. This afternoon’s starting pitcher Marco Gonzales does have a 6-0 TSR since 8/12, but he’s faced both Texas and Arizona twice. 

Boston, like Seattle, is trying to nail down one of the two Wild Card spots. I like their chances a lot better compared to the Mariners’. The Red Sox offense is third in batting average and second in slugging. They’ve scored the fourth most runs in all of baseball. Tanner Houck, who had a great September last year, has bounced back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A here in 2021. Looking back at those offensive numbers for Seattle, this may be Houck’s most favorable matchup of this season. The Red Sox are simply a much better team than the Mariners and Gonzales has not fared well against them in the past (5.87 ERA in three career starts). 8* Boston