Bryan Power

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Only now (I think) are people starting to realize how bad the Blackhawks really are. I feel like I’ve been a bit “ahead of the curve” on this one, playing against them regularly in the first month of the season. The most recent time was actually two weeks ago to the day when I grabbed Vancouver at “plus money” (+123 on the ML) and came away w/ a 4-2 victory. At the time, it was the third straight loss suffered by Chicago. Well, two weeks later and they haven’t won since w/ the losing streak now up to eight straight and counting. The firing of former HC Joel Quenneville has done nothing to alter the trajectory of this team. They’re just bad. 

Despite Chicago’s losing streak, they’re actually still ahead of St. Louis in the Central Division. But by just one point. But digging deeper, you quickly uncover something important. The Blues may be a last place team, but at 6-6-3, they’ve actually outscored the opposition this year. The Blackhawks have a -16 goal differential. That is 2nd worst (Kings) in all of hockey. St. Louis has won 4 of 6, but does enter tonight off a loss, 3-2 to Minnesota on Sunday. They’ve had two days off to prepare for tonight’s game and a big key is the Blues have only gotten to face two teams with losing records so far this season. They’ve won both games. 

This is actually already the fourth meeting between these teams this season. Chicago took the first two, both in overtime. St. Louis gained a measure of revenge on October 27th, winning 7-3 on home ice. That’s the game that started the current slide for Chicago. Note that when the Blackhawks had a 2-0 lead Monday in Carolina, it was the first time they’d led since the coaching change. They obviously blew that lead (lost 3-2 in OT) and are now still searching for answers that may not come for awhile. St. Louis can score (4th in the league in goals per game), so like the last meeting (scored 7 goals) they should have their way w/ a Blackhawks club that is 30th in goals allowed. 10* St. Louis

10* Colorado State (9:00 ET): Colorado State has had to start the year short-handed thanks to redshirting and a suspension. But it’s hardly mattered as they easily disposed of two non-board teams (Colorado Christian and Ark-Pine Bluff) by an average of nearly 30 PPG. The Rams have been able to sustain the personnel losses to the fact they’re a deep team this year w/ multiple freshman already contributing. First year HC Niko Medved is doing a good job w/ this team and they should have very little difficulty dominating a terrible Montana State team Wednesday night. Lay the points. 

Montana State won for the 1st time on Sunday, beating a school named “Presentation College,” (a NAIA school). But before that, the Bobcats had been absolutely annihilated in their first two games, losing 101-71 to Utah State and 80-35 at Indiana. I don’t think tonight’s game will go a whole lot better for them. Against Indiana, which was a road game, the Bobcats shot a dismal 25.5% from the field, which is one of the lowest percentages you’ll see all season. I think the fact we’re getting this team off a rare win is helpful. Not only is the spread not as high as it should be, but the players themselves might now be a bit overconfident. 

When it comes to depth, this matchup is a no-contest. Six different players are averaging at least 12 PPG for Colorado State while two players account for 44% of total scoring for Montana State. If the Rams can shut down either MSU standout, Keljin Blevins or Tyler Hall, then they’ll have no problem winning this game in a romp. Turnovers should also be key here as the Bobcats have been giving away possessions quite regularly so far. They had 25 turnovers against Indiana, for example. In two games, CSU has turned it over just 15 times. Montana State is a program w/ eight straight losing seasons and they simply are overmatched again tonight. 10* Colorado State

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I have these teams rated fairly even, so it looks like the wrong one is favored when you take into account where the game is being played. Miami is hardly a bunch of “world beaters” (lost three in a row & six of eight), so they really shouldn’t be road favorites against anybody right now, save for the dregs of the league. Granted, the Nets have spent several seasons being counted among the dregs, but they appear to be much improved for 2018-19. They haven’t played a ton of home games so far, but have managed to start the season at a respectable 6-8 SU. Take the points. 

The Nets were 6-6 SU before dropping their last two games, both of which were on the road and one was at Golden State. Monday night saw them lose 120-113 in Minnesota where the story was a scary looking injury to Caris LeVert. Thankfully, it appears as if the injury is not as serious as initially believed and LeVert can still return later this season. I suspect the injury has a lot to do w/ the Nets being underdogs here. LeVert was their leading scorer (18.4 PPG), so him being out definitely hurts. But I think there’s enough remaining talent on hand to compete and certainly win this game. Miami’s defense hasn’t been good of late w/ them allowing an average of 114 pts over the L8 games. 

The Heat have won 11 of the previous 15 meetings w/ the Nets. But these are two franchises trending in opposite directions right now. Brooklyn took three of the four meetings last season. Miami is a bit of a mess having turned the ball over 15+ times in 10 of their 13 games. They were also called for 30 fouls in Monday’s 124-114 loss to Philadelphia. Something else to note is that Miami’s last three losses all came at home. Their two road wins this year have been by a total of six points w/ one coming by a single point at sorry Washington. They too are missing personnel and it’s pretty clear to me that they’re an overvalued team in the marketplace. 10* Brooklyn

10* Ohio (7:00 ET):  This is a big revenge game for Ohio, who lost last year in Buffalo as six-point favorites, 31-24. It was an absolutely horrendous spot for Frank Solich’s Bobcats as they’d just been upset the week prior, at Akron, basically costing them a shot at the MAC Title Game. The situation is alarmingly similar Wednesday w/ Ohio having been upset by rival Miami last week, a result that severely hurt their chances of getting to this year’s MAC Title Game. Had they won in Oxford, then this game basically would have been a de facto MAC East Championship. As it stands now, Ohio is now two games back in the division and would need to win out plus have Buffalo lose next week at Bowling Green (which is highly unlikely to happen). 

Still, there are some notable differences between this matchup and the one that took place last year. For starters, the game will be played in Athens where OU is 4-0 SU and averaging a whopping 49.2 points per game. Their average margin of victory in those four contests is 23.7 points. The home team has won eight straight times in this MAC East rivalry. The Bobcats are probably better than their overall record as three of their four losses this year have been by 4 points or less (9 pts total). While I would have loved to get them as a dog here, the bottom line is that this team is 47-13 SU its L60 home games and laying the shortest of numbers.

With the division now all but wrapped up, I believe that it’s UB that’s more likely to overlook this week’s matchup. When these teams met last year, Ohio was in the dumps and Buffalo was looking to become bowl eligible (it was the regular season finale). The two teams came out and played like you’d think, based on the respective emotions, with the Bulls taking an early 24-7 lead before holding on for the seven-point victory. The job that Lance Leipold has done here at UB is quite remarkable and I give his Bulls an excellent shot at beating Northern Illinois next month in Detroit (MAC Champ Game). But Wednesday should belong to a revenge-minded Ohio team fighting to keep its own dreams alive. Remember, I played AGAINST Ohio last week in Miami, another game where they fell into a huge early hole (down 28-7) before fighting back and ultimately coming up short. Ohio is still the (slightly) better team here though and at home. 10* Ohio