Bryan Power

10* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): This number (ML) opened far too low and sharp bettors (like myself!) have rightfully pounced on it. I should not have to tell you that the Dodgers are the best team in baseball this year. Just about every metric reinforces that claim. They have the best record (38-15) and by far the best run differential (+122). When looking at the run differential, be aware that only a handful of teams LY (in a full 162-game season) outscored their opponents by that margin. This is a dominant team winning by more than two full runs per game right now!

You need not tell Colorado about the Dodgers. They’ve lost three in a row to them this weekend at Coors Field, every loss coming by 5+ runs. The L2 seasons have seen the Rockies go 6-22 vs. Dodger Blue. They are 13-35 L48 head to head matchups. Making matters worse, the Rockies have dropped 9 of 11 overall. They’ve scored more than three runs just three times in that stretch. That’s even with the L8 games all taking place here at Coors Field!

Not that LA needs more of an advantage, but today they have Tony Gonsolin on the mound. In six starts, Gonsolin has a 0.88 ERA and 0.685 WHIP. Those are sick numbers. By the way, the Dodgers have now won five in a row overall. They are the last opponent Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela wanted to see. Though Senzatela has pitched well this year (even here at home!), he has a 6.50 ERA in nine career appearances vs. LA. The Dodgers are 71-31 in day games the L3 seasons including 10-1 this year. This shapes up as a VERY lopsided affair. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Dallas (1:00 ET): I’ve watched as this line has been bet down all week and decided now is the time to act. I just can’t see the Cowboys, a team I project to finish near the top of the NFC, starting 0-2. I will caution you not to put much stock inthe fact Atlanta gained 500+ yards against Seattle last week. They trailed most of the way and ran a TON of plays. The Falcons also don’t have the same caliber of defense as the Rams, who were able to hold Dallas to 17 points last week. The line move is an overreaction to America’s Team losing a national TV game where they were favored. Lay the points.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have a big game Sunday. Last week, Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 pass attempts against this Falcons’ defense for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerback is an issue for Atlanta and that’s a problem when facing a Dallas offense that may have the best group of starting WR’s in the league. The “success” this Atlanta defense had in the 2nd half of last season may have saved HC Dan Quinn’s job, but it was artificial, built on facing mostly weak offenses. 

While it is true Atlanta has covered each of its last four road games (were at home LW), it is also true that they were just 4-16 ATS in the 20 previous road games. Dallas has covered three consecutive home openers and this line should be at where it opened. There will be fans present. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons and that should be obvious by the time this one is over. 10* Dallas

10* Detroit (1:00 ET):  “The Lions should have won last week” is something Lions fans are probably sick of hearing at this point. However, last week may have taken the cake. Since 2006, NFL teams with a 17+ point lead entering the 4Q were 779-2 SU. That record is now 779-3 SU after the Lions inexplicably gave up three touchdowns to Mitch Trubisky (who had been playing HORRIBLE up to that point) last week. That 27-23 loss marked Detroit’s 11th when leading in the 4Q under Matt Patricia, who started here in 2018. It was their 10th loss in a row overall and they are just 1-9 SU L10 games decided by 8 pts or less. 

Last year’s two meetings between the Packers & Lions pretty much encapsulated the two seasons. Consider that GB never led in regulation in either game. Yet they won both by kicking GW field goals as time expired. Per Elias, it was just the second time EVER a team swept a season series in which it never held a lead in regulation (the other was in 1977). The Packers were an extremely fraudulent 13-3 SU team a year ago as they went 9-1 SU In games decided by 8 pts or less and only outscored opponents by 63 points. For comparison, the 10-6 Vikings had a +104 point differential LY. 

This is clearly a contrarian play as much is being made over the Lions injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers had a big game last week in Minnesota, but for some reason always has his share of problems with the Lions. Including LY’s two miraculous escapes, the Packers are 0-6 ATS the L3 years vs. Detroit and just 2-4 SU. Given how lopsided public betting figures to be on this game, it’s interesting the number hasn’t moved. Given that they allowed 7.8 yards per play last week (league-high) to Minnesota, maybe it’s the Packers defense that everyone needs to be concerned about. Take the points. 10* Detroit

10* Napoli (6:30 AM ET): Napoli isn’t accustomed to middle of the table finishes. Yet that’s precisely where the Blues found themselves at the end of LY’s campaign – seventh to be precise. That was their worst finish in Serie A in 11 years. Keep in mind that they have finished 2nd in three of the previous five seasons. Possession numbers were actually quite good in 2019-20. In fact, they were best in the league. Yet Napoli somehow only finished 8th in scoring, a number that should most certainly go up this year. 

Parma finished not far behind Napoli last season, in 11th, which was an improvement on their 14th place finish the year prior. Shockingly, they beat Napoli in both head to head meetings last year – both times by a score of 2-1. But unlike their opponents, I’m not seeing much room for improvement for Parma in 2020-21. 

This being a revenge spot, Napoli will be extra motivated to start its season with a win, especially of an unusually down campaign. 10* Napoli