Bryan Power

8* Penn State (8:30 ET):  I smell upset here. Isn’t a little curious that a Penn State team that is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in Big 10 play is only a short road dog here to a Minnesota team that is 13-4 SU overall on the season? Of course, anyone who joined me for my ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL against the Golden Gophers on Wednesday knows that this team is pretty much a fraud. The Gophers lost by 27 at Illinois, a team that also was without a Big 10 win at the time. Take the points here! 

Penn State hasn’t necessarily been bad this year, they’ve just been unlucky. Case in point, an 89-82 loss to Iowa on Wednesday where they were actually favored by 3.5 points. Iowa is a ranked team and the Nittany Lions held a five-point lead at the break. But it was not be as they ended the game w/ some extremely cold shooting. Up eight w/ just over 11 minutes to go in the game, they would go onto miss 16 of their next 21 shots and 10 in a row from three-point range. Also disappointing was the fact they didn’t defend as well as they normally do. None of their previous five opponents had scored more than 71 points before Iowa (a good offensive team) went for 89. Despite this, the Nittany Lions still rank top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

In my writeup for that Minnesota-Illinois game, I said the line was just as curious as it looks to be here and this is due to the oddsmakers being all too aware how fraudulent the Gophers truly are. I talked about this quite a bit in the analysis for the Illinois game, but would like to add that this is a poor shooting team, from both two and three-point range as they sit outside the top 200 in percentage. They’ve been helped by a strong offensive rebounding rate, but that will probably go down here in Big 10 play. The Gophers really do not have a quality win. 8* Penn State

10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Columbus was exposed a bit in last night’s 4-1 loss to Montreal. I was on the Canadiens there and cited that while the Blue Jackets did enter the day in first place in the Metro, they actually had the division’s fourth best goal differential. They’d been hot going into Friday (won 4 straight), but for the second straight night I think they make an excellent fade. While Minnesota is floundering a bit recently, and off an embarrassing loss to Anaheim, they are a team I expect to eventually ascend to third place in the Central. This is a good price on them on home ice. 

The Wild really were embarrassed Thursday night here at the XCel Center. They were shutout, 3-0, by an Anaheim team that had previously lost 12 in a row. All three goals were scored in the first period, so the game was basically “over before it started” and the Wild’s 37-23 edge in shots was pretty much “null and void.” However, I still see a team that has plenty going for it, such as the league’s second ranked penalty kill. They have revenge here for a 4-2 loss in Columbus back in November. One thing that will be definitely be different from that last meeting is a new forward, Victor Rask, who is set to make his debut w/ the team tonight after getting traded from Carolina earlier this week. 

With this being the second night of a back to back, the Blue Jackets will likely be forced to turn to Sergei Bobrovsky in goal. In past year’s that would be anything but a problem. However, in 2019 there appears to be a disconnect between “Bob” and the team as he recently was disciplined for hitting the showers (rather than the bench) after getting yanked after another subpar performance. Bobrovsky has posted a woeful .837 save percentage his L4 outings. With C-bus ranking 27th on the power play, they’re going to have to be reliant on even strength scoring and that certainly did not come easy last night. The Blue Jackets are already just 3-5 playing w/o rest this season. 10* Minnesota 

8* Duke (6:00 ET): This is a rare battle of teams each ranked #1 in different polls. Duke is the AP’s top choice while Virginia is #1 according to the Coaches. This is just the 4th time this has happened in CBB history where teams ranked #1 in the two polls are meeting. Don’t let the fact that Duke is w/o PG Tre Jones lure you into thinking the luster of this matchup is gone. I agree with the AP that the Blue Devils are the top team in the country, despite what happened to them earlier this week. Virginia is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the country, but I believe they will go DOWN on Saturday. Lay the points. 

It’s certainly a bit odd to consider Duke an “anti-public” bet. But coming off a loss and w/o Jones, they are here. Facing an unbeaten team is also a contributing factor. But the Blue Devils have the depth to overcome the loss of Jones and will obviously be highly motivated coming off the 95-91 loss to Syracuse on Monday. That game saw them lose Jones to a separated shoulder just six minutes in and they were already w/o Cam Reddish. But Reddish is set to return here. Zion Williamson just set a Duke freshman record w/ 35 pts in that Syracuse game. The Blue Devils have outscored teams by more than 30 PPG here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. 

Virginia, as per usual, is the near the top of the country in defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 51.7 PPG and enter this game at 13-3 ATS. But two things to keep in mind here. One, it’s hard to shake the memory of what happened to the Cavaliers in LY’s NCAA Tournament. How will they handle this step up game? Two, I’m sure Duke remembers losing to Virginia LY here at home. This year’s team is better w/ Williamson and R.J. Barrett and I don’t see them going down in Durham two years in a row to the Hoos. This line should be higher. The fact that it’s not is an overreaction to what happened Monday (Jones injury, Duke losing). 8* Duke

Start time for this game has been moved up due to weather. Play is still valid!

10* Western Michigan (2:30 ET): Bowling Green is the only MAC team besides Buffalo w/o a conference loss, but to consider those two squads as anything close to equals would be downright laughable. Buffalo is a legit top 20 team in the country right now. I wouldn’t even consider BG to be among the top 200. While the Falcons’ Saturday opponent, Western Michigan, isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, I do like the Broncos plus the points here. Bowling Green is not accustomed to being this large of a favorite and will struggle here to win by any kind of margin. 

Bowling Green does enter this game on a seven-game ATS win streak. But the Falcons have been a slight underdog in three of their four MAC games, including here at home Tuesday where they escaped w/ a 79-78 victory over Ball State. They won that game despite shooting just 33.9% from the field. But they made 8 of the 20 three-pointers they took and were 29 of 33 from the FT line. Give credit to the Falcons for being 9-0 SU at home. They’re averaging a lot of points here while visitors are shooting just 38.4% from the field. But I just don’t see this good fortune continuing.

Western Michigan has dropped its last four games as well as seven of its last eight. As of now, they and Miami are the only teams in the MAC w/o a conference win. But the Broncos are coming off a couple of “game efforts” at home over the last week against Toledo and Buffalo. They actually gave Buffalo its toughest test in MAC play thus far – by far – as they led by 11 pts in the first half. Obviously, they weren’t able to hold on, but they easily covered as 14-point home dogs. The L3 games have seen WMU score 73, 77 and 79 points. If they can get to that threshold today, then they’ll have no problem covering this generous pointspread. 10* Western Michigan 

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): There are only two unbeaten teams left in the country (Virginia, Michigan) and both face stern road tests on Saturday. Michigan, ranked #2 (AP) and #4 (Coaches) in the polls must visit Madison for this early tip and as of press time, I believe this line is trending in the WRONG directions. Don’t let Wisconsin’s six losses fool you; the Badgers will be the Wolverines most worthy adversary yet. Michigan has played only a handful of “true” road games so far (three to be exact) and this one happens to come at a team that is not only top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), but also top 20 in my own personal power ratings. 

Michigan is 17-0 overall and has started Big 10 play 4-0 ATS. But they’ve gotten dealt a “pretty easy hand” so far in conference play, drawing three of the league’s four teams that likely won’t be making the NCAA Tournament. You have to tip your cap to the job done by HC John Beilein here in Ann Arbor as once again he has his team overachieving. Last year’s national runner-up came into the year barely even considered a top 20 team in the country. This 17-0 record is Michigan’s best start EVER, but I believe a few losses are coming. They got career-highs from TWO players in last Saturday’s 80-60 win over Northwestern. That won’t be happening again on the road. 

Wisconsin enters this game off B2B losses, both by just four points. They’ve also dropped four of five, all by seven points or less. So it’s not just facing a top 5 and unbeaten opponent in their gym that should have the Badgers motivated here. They desperately need a win as well. As I mentioned earlier, despite these recent results, I still have Wisconsin as a top 20 team nationally. It is not often you find them as an underdog at the Kohl Center. (Hasn’t happened until now this season). Even last year when they had a down year, the Badgers were only a home dog three times. I’m taking the points here and obviously don’t be surprised if it’s an outright upset. 8* Wisconsin

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons won last night here at home, beating Miami by a score of 98-93. They were 2.5-pt favorites and it was their 4th straight cover, a stretch which has also seen them go 3-1 SU as they try and remain relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff discussion. They’re currently a game back of Charlotte (who hosts Phoenix today) for the 8th and final spot. Last night’s win did not come w/o some attrition as Andre Drummond had to make an early exit after getting hit in the face. But despite them blowing all of a 16-pt lead, I was impressed w/ how they came back and won. Despite being in the second game of a back to back, I like them tonight. 

Sacramento’s last game only further confirmed my general skepticism towards them. They were blown out in Charlotte, 114-95, which for me was a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release (on the Hornets). The Kings, like the Pistons, are hovering right under the “cut line” for the playoffs. But they have a negative point differential, indicating their winning SU record is at least a little fraudulent. Their defense is bottom five in the league (in terms of points per game allowed) and while they’ve been able to go 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if this line “flips” before tipoff.

Playing without rest and possibly some key players hardly sounds ideal, but I expect the Pistons to “step up” here. Drummond is officially listed as questionable, though HC Dwane Casey has said he’s “hopeful” he can play. Backup PG Ish Smith also left last night’s game early and is listed as “day to day.” This one simply boils down to the fact that I do not believe in Sacramento moving forward. Note this is a revenge game for the Pistons, who lost out in California nine days ago. But they played that game w/o Blake Griffin. We know Griffin will play here and he’s been on fire of late, averaging 29.3 points on 51.4% shooting his L10 games. Look for the home team to roll. 10* Detroit 

8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): Both of these teams are coming off results that are not indicative of where they’re truly “at” and the better team is getting points. Oklahoma City suffered an upset at the hands of the LeBron-less Lakers Thursday night, which was actually the second straight head-scratching result for them. Earlier in the week, they lost at Atlanta. So that’s two games in a row where the Thunder have lost outright as a double digit favorite. You just don’t see that very often and I think they’ll bounce back in this early start time Saturday afternoon. Take the points. 

Philadelphia just destroyed Indiana Thursday night, 120-96. That win was not free from criticism, however, as the team’s decision to play an injured Joel Embiid received plenty of criticism from all the usual talking heads. Despite clearly being bothered by a bad back, Embiid had 22 points and 13 rebounds vs. the Pacers, which is right in line w/ his season averages. But I wonder if playing Thursday has an adverse effect on him here. Despite a 19-4 SU home record, I’m a little skeptical of the Sixers, who are just 4-9 ATS off a double digit win and lagging behind some of the other top teams in the East in key metrics such as point differential and net efficiency. 

For much of this year, Oklahoma City has led the league in defensive efficiency. Not in the last two games, however. The Hawks and Lakers torched them for a combined 280 pts, which is a stunning number. That Lakers game did go to overtime and they also recently lost to the Spurs 154-147 in double overtime. This team is better than its record, IMO, and has gone 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. They should start to turn things around here as I see defensive improvement on its way against a Philly side who is “due” to dropoff at the offensive end anyway. 8* Oklahoma City