Bryan Power

7* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a lack of hitting and some injuries, the Indians have stayed viable in the American League and would actually be a Wild Card if the playoffs started today. Obviously, we’re a longways away from October, but I don’t think the Tribe should be that discouraged at all about their current position. As hot as Minnesota has been, it’s only a 4.5 game deficit in the division. I still project Cleveland to win 90+ games this season. They just took care of business over the weekend, taking three of four from lowly Baltimore, and now have another ideal matchup on the docket. There’s some revenge at play here too as the Indians dropped 2 of 3 out in Oakland earlier in the month. 

The A’s come to Cleveland on a three-game win streak. It should have been four, but Sunday’s game in Detroit was suspended due to rain. Before that, they had completely emasculated the Tigers, outscoring them 28-6 in the first three games. But Detroit is also really bad. Before that series, the A’s dropped a pair of games to a Seattle team that has the worst record in baseball since April 27th. The three-game series w/ Cleveland was before that and note both Oakland victories came in the final at-bat. 

I like Carlos Carrasco starting for the Indians here as he has a 1.83 ERA and 0.763 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn’t given up any runs in four of his previous six starts and has a 2.49 ERA and 0.831 WHIP pitching at home this year. The team has won each of his last three starts as he’s working on a 12-inning scoreless streak. Carrasco has also pitched well in the past vs. Oakland, going 4-1 w/ a 2.89 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The same can be said for Brett Anderson against Cleveland (0.82 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in 5 appearances), but Monday’s starter for the A’s is also 1-3 in his L5 starts and has allowed 4 ER in B2B outings. 7* Cleveland

10* Over Yankees/Orioles (7:05 ET): When the Orioles pitching staff is involved, plenty of runs are to be expected. They just made a Cleveland offense – that had previously been scuffling – look great over the weekend. Twice the Indians put 10+ runs on the board, including a 10-0 shutout Sunday. For a Yankees team that just put 13 on the board yday – against a Rays pitching staff that is among the best in baseball – they should have little difficulty scoring in this series, this game in particular. They come in averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. Take the Over tonight. 

Baltimore is giving up an unthinkable 6.7 rpg at Camden Yards this season. Only one team is allowing a higher number of runs per game at home and as per usual it’s Colorado at the bottom. Baltimore is also 29th overall in runs allowed, so it’s not like the poor pitching at home is anything unique. But home games have been higher scoring overall. Early in the year, the O’s hosted the Yankees in a three-game set and all three games went Over. The Over is now 35-11 in the L46 meetings between these AL East rivals and that’s after the last two both went Under.

Starting here for the Yanks will be J.A. Happ, who has pitched well on the road. But a) the Yankees figure to score enough here that even if Happ is good, it won’t matter and b) Happ’s overall numbers indicate that his YTD road performance may be a mirage. He has a 4.44 ERA in nine starts overall and two starts against Baltimore both went Over w/ neither seeing Happ make it out of the 5th inning. The Orioles will counter w/ Andrew Cashner, who did pitch well at Yankee Stadium last week (part of a doubleheader). But he also gave up six runs to the Yankees when he faced them on Opening Day. The Over is 20-5-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 road games. 10* Over Yankees/Orioles

8* Over Warriors/Blazers (9:05 ET): It’s all come down to this for the Blazers, who must win tonight or their season is over. Obviously, their chances of coming back to take this series currently rank somewhere between slim and none. But considering they’ve led each of the last two games by double digits at halftime, I don’t see them simply “rolling over” here. They average 118 PPG at home for the year and scored 66 in the first half here in Game 3. A second consecutive 2nd half meltdown cost them the cash (and an Over), but I definitely see them scoring more points tonight. 

The problem for Portland is that Golden State can score too. Despite not having Kevin Durant, the Warriors have scored at least 110 pts in the last four games, averaging 114.5 PPG overall. They average 117.6 PPG for the season. As you might expect, Steph Curry has picked up the slack in Durant’s absence, scoring at least 33 points in all four games. That’s the luxury Golden State has with five All Stars and two former MVP’s on its roster. The Over is 11-3 in their L14 trips to Portland and 20-9 their L29 overall meetings w/ the Blazers.

Remember what I wrote in my Game 2 analysis about the total and the O/U line relative to the regular season. None of the four regular season matchups between the Warriors & Blazers saw fewer than 219 total pts scored. For the final regular season meeting, the O/U line was set at 235.5 points and the game still went Over! Portland should shoot better than 40% from the field tonight (that was their FG% in Gm 3) and three-point shooting in particular should improve. The Over is also 4-0 the L4 times the Blazers have been off an ATS loss.  8* Over Warriors/Blazers 

10* Portland (9:05 ET): It’s all come down to this for the Blazers, who must win tonight or their season is over. Obviously, their chances of coming back to take this series currently rank somewhere between slim and none. But considering they’ve led each of the last two games by double digits at halftime, I won’t hesitate in backing them at home. Especially now that they are an underdog, which was not the case for Game 3. Also, Portland is 12-1 ATS at home the L2 seasons when playing w/ revenge for a double digit loss (lost Game 3 by 11 points). Take the points here. 

Coming into this series, no team in NBA history had ever won B2B playoff games in which it trailed by more than 13 points. That’s changed now w/ the Warriors doing just that in both Games 2 and 3. Game 2 was bad enough as Portland blew an eight-point lead w/ just over four minutes to go (and they led by 15 at half). But Game 3 may have been even worse as the Blazers led that game by as many as 18 in the first half, at home, and not only didn’t win, but they didn’t cover either. It was a double digit loss (110-99) where they were held to a measly 33 points after halftime. 

Portland averages 118 PPG at home for the year, so we should a bounce back performance offensively tonight, at least relative to the second half disaster from Saturday. They scored 66 points in the first half, so they’re certainly capable of scoring against this Warriors team, which by the way remains w/o both Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins. Sure, the Warriors still have three other All Stars on the roster, a luxury almost unheard of in the history of this league. But they are also 1-7 ATS their L8 games following an ATS win and also 19-42-2 ATS when off a double digit victory. 10* Portland