Bryan Power

10* Under Utah Valley State/CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Utah Valley comes in at 8-12 SU on the year and just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-70 win over UT Rio Grand Valley last Saturday. But the Wolverines failed to cover (were -4.5) so the ATS losing skid is still alive at four straight games. Tonight they head to Cal State Bakersfield to take on a team that’s returning home after B2B road wins against the bottom of the Big West. I am envisioning this to be an ugly, low-scoring game.

So CS-Bakersfield’s two road wins came against Missouri-KC and Chicago State. The latter is probably the worst team in the entire country, so read little into the fact that the Roadrunners were able to shoot 51% from the floor in that game. It was actually their highest shooting percentage vs. a D-I opponent all season. While you may look at CS-Bakersfield’s scoring average at home this year (78.5 PPG) and be weary over playing the Under, take note that scoring average is greatly inflated by three wins over non-DI opponents. They’ve scored more than 75 pts vs. just one D-I foe this year and that was the second game of the season.

Utah Valley has gone Under in four straight games, due in large part to some dreadful efforts at the offensive end. Prior to the win last Saturday, they had scored 56, 50 and 63 pts in their previous three contests. The Wolverines shoot a poor percentage (30.2) for the year from three-point range, so they’re not much of a threat there. Even in victory, they were just 5 of 21 from behind the arc Saturday. 10* Under Utah Valley State/CS Bakersfield

10* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): We’re heading to the Ohio Valley Conference for this one, a league that still has TWO unbeaten teams in conference play. Believe it or not, no other conference can say that. But neither of those two teams – Austin Peay or Murray State – are involved in this play. Instead, it’s two teams in the “middle of the pack,” but are trending in opposite directions. Eastern Illinois (Tony Romo’s alma mater) is off a blowout win and back to .500 overall while UT Martin has lost three straight (all at home) to fall to 5-12 SU on the year.

To be fair, UT Martin’s losing streak has come at the hands of the three top teams in the OVC, including both unbeatens. But they really struggled on the defensive end against those three teams, giving up 85, 84 and 92 points. There’s really no way of sugarcoating just how bad the Skyhawks are at the defensive end. They are giving up 83.5 PPG on the year and only two of their L10 opponents have failed to score at least 82 points on them. They are second to last in the COUNTRY in defensive efficiency, ahead of only Houston Baptist.

The defensive issues have obviously resulted in a poor start to conference play for UT Martin (1-5 SU) and now comes a visit to Eastern Illinois, who is averaging a whopping 91.8 PPG at home. They’ve only played five home games, but the Panthers are undefeated while outscoring their opponents by more than 30 points per game! That’s really impressive. They are in off an 84-59 beatdown of Tenn Tech as 11-pt favorites, which snapped a 6-game ATS losing skid. The Panthers are shooting better than 53% from the field at home! I realize UT Martin has faced Austin Peay and Murray State a total of four times already, but this is a terrible matchup for their terrible defense. 10* Eastern Illinois

8* Delaware (6:30 ET): The CAA “ain’t what it used to be,” so what we’re left with is a far more “wide-open” league. A conference that has produced TWO Final Four teams this century does have another storyline going for it in 2020 as current leader William & Mary is one of only FOUR original D-I schools NEVER to have made the NCAA Tournament. But tonight, the focus is on Delaware and Hofstra, both of whom are off a close games that didn’t turn out the same way. For a variety of reasons, I’ll be taking the points here. 

Delaware is off a 79-78 win over Elon, a game that was decided on a three-pointer with just two seconds left. While they escaped with the SU, the Blue Hens did not come close to covering the 10-point spread and are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Tonight, they are looking to make it B2B wins for the first time since conference play began. Interestingly enough, this will be just the second time Delaware has been an underdog to a Colonial opponent and it’s the most points they’ll be taking for any game since facing Villanova last month.

Hofstra lost by two at College of Charleston Saturday, capping a three-game road trip where every decision was by exactly two points. The Pride won the first two games, 74-72 over Northeastern and 63-61 over UNC Wilmington. All three games saw the game winning basket made in the final 10 seconds. While a fine home team, this just looks like too many points for Hofstra to be laying. Being in the lower half of the CAA standings, Delaware figures to come in as the more desperate side and I just can’t see them losing by double digits here. 8* Delaware

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards lost last night, in overtime, 134-129 at Miami. But even with it being the second night of a back to back here in Cleveland, the Wiz should not be in a position where they are getting points. The 12-32 Cavaliers have the league’s worst net efficiency rating as they are getting outscored by 10.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have not been favored to win a game since January 2nd – when they lost outright here at home to Charlotte. Overall, the Cavs are 0-3 ATS as chalk this season. 

Washington dug itself a big hole last night in Miami, trailing by as many as 21 points in the 3rd quarter. They started the game by missing their first eight three-point attempts and were just 4 of 22 from beyond the arc by halftime. But give the Wizards credit for getting back into the game and forcing OT. They even had a 118-115 lead going into the final minute of regulation. But it was not to be as the Wiz dropped to 1-6 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less this season. They also took 16 fewer free throws than the Heat, who have lost only one home game all season.

I had the Over in last night’s game, an easy winner obviously (even before OT) and there’s definitely a chance this game could turn into a “track meet” as well considering we’re looking at a pair of teams with the worst two defensive efficiency ratings in the league right now. But the big difference is that the Cavaliers (104.8 PPG) can’t score like the Wizards (114.7 PPG) can. Washington is a surprising 4-1 ATS without rest this year and has revenge for a loss to Cleveland that occurred at home back in November. The Cavs have lost their last five games, including a terrible 106-86 setback here at home to the Knicks on Monday. They can’t be trusted to win a game under almost any circumstances. 10* Washington