Bryan Leonard

906 Chicago at Atlanta

Listed Hendricks & Ynoa

The Cubs enter this game with a 91 wRC+ on the season. Atlanta comes in at 98, an average score would be 100, so both offenses have underperformed. These pitchers have faced this opponent once already this year with bad results. Hendricks had a 19 game score allowing seven earned runs in only four innings. Ynoa had a 28 game score allowing six earned runs in four innings. But both of those games have been outliers on the season resumes. The other Hendricks starts had game scores of 40, 69 and 57. The other Ynoa starts were 67, 71 and 64. 

Both these starters are much better than what they showed against these hitters earlier. With neither team knocking the cover off the ball, we look for a solid pitchers duel.

PLAY UNDER

41 Edmonton at Winnipeg

In 5×5 play in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 15th and the Jets 17th. In xG/60 we see Edmonton is -0.01 and Winnipeg -0.29.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find both teams faring well as the Oilers rank 2nd and the Jets 5th. In xG/60 Edmonton is +7.79 and Winnipeg +6.55. A nice edge for the visitor.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 25th and the Jets 10th. In xG/60 Edmonton is -7.42 and Winnipeg -7.19. Much closer than the actual goals suggest.

The Oilers have been solid on the road all season winning 14 of 23 games, Winnipeg has struggled a bit at home winning 11 of 24. The Edmonton speed has led them to winning six of the eight meetings this season. Look for that strength to be the difference here.

PLAY EDMONTON

38 St Louis at Minnesota

Many will look at this as a must win for the Blues, who are fighting off Arizona to make the playoffs. But Minnesota only sits a point behind Colorado and five behind Vegas for the divisional title. 

St Louis is off back to back upsets of the Avalanche, and face Minnesota five times down the stretch.

In 5×5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -0.31 and Minnesota +0.12. 

On the Power Play St Louis ranks 6th and Minnesota 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues +5.87 and the Wild 5.84. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest.

Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Blues rank 28th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -7.98 and Minnesota -4.91. A major advantage for the host.

St Louis has been a solid 12-8-2 on the road this year, but the Wild has been an outstanding 17-4-0 in this building. Let’s lay it with the far better team.

PLAY MINNESOTA