Brandon Lee

PICK – St Louis Cardinals -158
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 954

I got no problem laying it with St Louis on the road. The Cardinals secured their 3rd straight win with a 5-4 victory on Saturday. While St Louis is trending in the right direction, Pittsburgh is now an atrocious 1-11 over their last 12 games.

I know St Louis starter Jack Flaherty was lit up in his last start at Milwaukee, but one bad start isn’t the end of the world. Prior to that outing Flaherty had gone 6 straight starts allowing 3 or fewer runs. He’s been great in day games this season with a 3.08 ERA in 3 starts. He’s also 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh will send out Joe Musgrove. He’s 0-5 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Cardinals. Give me St Louis -157!

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50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He’s going to get the most out of what he can. It’s why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami. 

I’m not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something. 

The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson’s hands more and that’s huge. I don’t think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2.

On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he’s willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago. 

Seattle’s defense isn’t what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5! 

40* BRONCOS/STEELERS NFL STEAMROLLER (Steelers -7) 

I just don’t see Drew Lock and that Denver offense being able to score enough to make a game of this. This Steelers defense is the real deal. They just held Saquon Barkley to a mere 6 yards on 15 attempts.

Denver does have Melvin Gordon, but the loss of Phillip Lindsay is big for this team. We also don’t know if Lock will have wideout Courtland Sutton or KJ Hamler. I think Pittsburgh can make the Broncos one-dimensional. 

Denver’s held the Titans to just 14 points in Week 1, but Tennessee moved the ball up and down the field against them. If it wasn’t for all those missed kicks, Titans would have won by double-digits.

Pittsburgh has a much more explosive offense than Tennessee. Big Ben is also one of those guys that puts up way better stats at home than on the road. This game doesn’t figure to be close for long. Give me the Steelers -7! 

40* VIKINGS/COLTS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3) 

I’m going to lay the field goal with the Colts at home against the Vikings.  I almost laid the touchdown with Indianapolis in Week 1 at Jacksonville. Glad I didn’t, but I’m not so sure it wasn’t the right play despite the result.  

The Colts had a 445 to 241 edge in total yards. They outgained the Jaguars by 204 yards. That was the best yardage differential of any team in Week 1.  I know Philip Rivers had a couple of costly interceptions that led to the score being what it was, but I still think he makes the Colts a contender. Losing Marlon Mack to a season-ending injury is a big blow, but they drafted a guy who many thought was going to overtake him in Jonathan Taylor.  

I think this offense is going to be able to whatever they want against this Vikings defense. Minnesota was gashed in Week 1, allowing a league-worst 522 yards to the Packers. Not only did Aaron Rodgers carve them up for 364 yards and 4 scores, Green Bay rushed for 158 yards and 4.9 yards/carry.  

This is not your typical Mike Zimmer defense. They don’t got legit NFL corners on their roster. They knew the ball was going to Davante Adams and there was nothing they could do to stop it. Adams had 14 catches for 156 yards and 2 scores.  Minnesota is also not nearly as strong on the defensive line and we saw that with how Green Bay ran all over them.  

Lastly, I think the Indianapolis defense doesn’t get the respect it deserves. They have been getting better and better ever since they drafted linebacker Darius Leonard. I also loved the addition of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. I think they can make life difficult here on Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense. Give me the Colts -3!  

50* NFC *MAX BET* PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals -6.5) 

I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan. He was the reason I was on Arizona over their win total last year. There’s been nothing but positive things said about this kid since he got into the league.  He was absolutely sensational in last week’s win against the 49ers, completing 65% of his attempts for 230 yards and rushing for another 91 yards on 13 attempts.  

He’s going to have to run less as he gets older if he wants to do this for a long time, but for now it makes him and this Arizona offense extremely difficult to guard, especially now that he has one of the best receivers in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins.  

I just see Murray and the Cardinals offense doing as they please in this one. I know Washington’s run defense held the Eagles in check, but Philly was without their top back in Miles Sanders. Eagles were also without top wideout Alshon Jeffery and two multiple pro bowl offensive linemen in right tackle Lane Johnson and right guard Brandon Brooks.  

I also think this Washington offense is going to end up being one of the worst in the league. I’m sorry but Dwayne Haskins is not an NFL quarterback. He went 17 of 31 for 178 yards in their win. They also don’t got anything that excites me at the skill positions. Arizona’s defense isn’t great, but this is a much easier task than what they just faced in the 49ers. Give me the 49ers -6.5

40* FALCONS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (OVER 52.5) 

I’m a little bit surprised this number isn’t higher. These are two explosive offenses that want to air it out to all their big playmakers at receiver. Dallas has a great back in Zeke, but Dak is not shy about letting it fly. 

I know the Cowboys/Rams game went way UNDER in Week 1. A lot of that was the Rams playing ball control offense. LA rushed it 40 times (Dallas only ran it 27). Atlanta isn’t going to play ball control offense. Falcons put up over 500 yards in Week 1 and only 72 of those came on the ground. Should be enough possessions to push this game well past the mark. Give me the OVER 52.5!