Brandon Lee

40* (CFB) – Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Texas A&M -8.5) 

I think the overwhelming perception with Texas A&M coming off that huge upset against Alabama is they are primed for a letdown. I get the thought process, but I’m not sure it’s as big a concern given the spread and the opponent. 

It would be one thing if the books were asking the Aggies to cover more than two TDs, which I think they should be, but they aren’t all we need is for Texas A&M to win by a TD and FG. 

I also would be a lot more worried if the Aggies were playing a SEC team with some upside like Ole Miss, Arkansas or Kentucky, but instead they are playing a Missouri team that I believe is only better than Vanderbilt in the SEC. 

I also think it’s a perfect matchup for this Texas A&M offense that finally showed some life in their shocking win over Alabama. It was like a switch flipped for sophomore quarterback Zach Calzada in that game against the Crimson Tide. He went 21 of 31 for 285 yards and 3 scores. he had just 5 TD passes the previous 4 games, which saw him throw it 128 times. 

I think it can be hard to jump on a performance like that when you have seen so much bad leading up, but it’s something I’ll take a shot on against this awful Missouri defense. 

Not sure how much you have seen of this Tigers team, but they can’t stop anything. Missouri is giving up 37.5 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. They are giving up 288 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run and allowing 8.2 passing yards per attempt. That’s with the Tigers 3 toughest games being against Kentucky, Tennessee and BC. 

I know the Missouri offense can score, but this is a very talented Texas A&M defense that hadn’t allowed more than 26 points in a game before allowing 38 to Alabama. Mizzu aint even close to the Tide on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Aggies are going to win here along the lines of 37-20. Give me Texas A&M -8.5! 

40* (CFB) – No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texas -4.5) 

Most will hesitate to lay the points with Texas coming off that big collapse against Oklahoma last week. No question that loss isn’t going to sit well, but I don’t think an undefeated Oklahoma State team is the kind of opponent that will result in a letdown. This is a massive game for both teams in terms of making that Big 12 title game. 

The other big thing for me, is I’m not buying the stock in this Oklahoma State team. This is by far the best team they will have faced this year as their five wins have come against Missouri St, Tulsa, Boise State, Kansas State and Baylor. 

None of those teams are even close to being on the same level offensively as this Longhorns team. So while the defensive numbers look great for the Cowboys, I don’t think they are going to be able to slow down this Texas offense, especially on the road. Keep in mind last year, the Longhorns hung 41 on the road in a 7-point win at Oklahoma State. 

As for the Cowboys offense, there’s nothing that really impresses me with what they do. Despite the easy schedule they have played, they only come in averaging 25.4 ppg and 305.2 ypg. So while Texas’ defense has struggled at times, this is an offense they should perform well against. Give me the Longhorns -4.5! 

50* (CFB) – Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR (Rutgers -2) 

I was dead wrong grabbing the points with Rutgers last week at home against Michigan State. As painful as that was to watch, it’s not going to keep me from backing the Scarlet Knights at basically a pick’em on the road against Northwestern. 

I just don’t think the books have adjusted enough for how down the Wildcats are this year. Northwestern is just 2-3 thru their first 5 games. There only wins are against FCS foe Indiana State and an awful Ohio team. They got blown out at home by Michigan State, were lucky to only by 7 on the road vs Duke and got absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska 56-7 last time out. 

As for Rutgers, this feels like a good buy low spot on them The excitement around this Scarlet Knights team has faded after 3 straight losses and back-to-back games where they didn’t sniff a cover. This is a team that started 3-0 and covered their first 4, so there’s been a lot of value betting them overall. 

You also have to factor in just how brutal a stretch their last 3 games were. They went on the road to face Michigan, before returning home to host Ohio State and Michigan State. It looked to me like they were just out of gas in that game against the Spartans and it probably had a lot to do with their defense giving up 4 60+ yard TDs in that game. 

I think they bounce back in a big way here against a Northwestern team that has struggled to score and aren’t any good defensively. Wildcats are giving up only 27.2 ppg, but that’s skewed big time by the 6 points they allowed in their games against Indiana State and Ohio. They gave up 326 on the ground to the Spartans, 208 to Duke (had 350 passing) and 427 to Nebraska.

Rutgers has covered all 3 games where they have rushed for 150 or more yards. Scarlet Knights have also been a road covering machine here of late. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons. Give me Rutgers -2!