ASA

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET – *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Lightning seek revenge from a recent 4 to 1 loss to the Rangers.  Tampa Bay is well-rested here as they have been off since Saturday since that was part of their 2-game series against Buffalo in Stockholm, Sweden.  The Lightning have had a lot of extra practice time thanks to their recent schedule and they’ll come in skating very well in this one with fresh legs.  Tampa Bay has a potent offense and, again, they are out for revenge here.  Both the Lightning and the Rangers have fared very well on the power play but struggled on the penalty kill so far this season.  Of course that is a good “recipe” making for high-scoring games.  The Rangers come into this game with plenty of confidence as they are 6-2-1 their last 9 games and have averaged 4 goals per game during this stretch.  The Bolts come into this game having won 3 of their last 4 games and also averaging 4 goals per game during this hot streak.  The Lightning were 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against the Rangers before losing at New York two weeks ago.  Tampa Bay was held to just 1 goal in that game but had scored an average of 5 goals in their 5 most recent meetings with the Rangers entering that one.  When Tampa is off a divisional game the over is 41-24 including 5-2 this season.  The over, entering this season, was 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and while the Rangers (just like on the 29th of October) might again score 4 goals here, the Lightning are also expected to find the back of the net at least 4 times in this one.  The result?  Look for a “barn burner” type of game here with end to end action in this one.  Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in NHL early evening action Thursday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #313

These teams have met six times as ACC foes and the Tar Heels have won all six of the games both straight-up and against the spread!  Both teams are off a bye week and North Carolina can’t wait to get back on the field after a tough 7-point loss to a quality Virginia team prior to their bye – Tar Heels outgained the Cavs by over 100 yards!  The Panthers got a win before their bye week but it came against a Georgia Tech team having a rough season as this is a transition year for the 2-7 Yellow Jackets.  Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 points per game this season which ranks them around the #110 spot in the nation.  Though the Panthers defense is their strong suit, the Tar Heels defense had allowed 25 points or less in 6 of 8 games before having a tough time with the Cavaliers in their most recent game.  The key to the match-up edge for UNC here is that they are averaging 446 yards per game on offense and are clearly the stronger team on that side of the ball.  That yardage average would be even higher if the Heels did not have to face Clemson.  Pittsburgh does not face Clemson this season and, overall, the Tar Heels have played the tougher schedule this season which also is not properly factored into this line (Pitt opened at -4) in our opinion.  The Heels offense, since the loss to Clemson, has averaged 512 yards per game in 4 games.  The Panthers have averaged just 350 yards per game on offense in their 4 games since October 1st.  Per our computer math model, Pittsburgh won’t be able to score enough to match the Tar Heels in this one as UNC covers for a 7th straight time in their ACC meetings.  Grab the points with North Carolina as a road dog in evening action Thursday.