ASA

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Phillies Jake Arrieta is in his 10th MLB season but will be making his first ever start against the Cubs. That’s because he started his career in the American League and then when he switched leagues he actually went to the Cubs. That said, there is plenty of motivation here for Arrieta as he faces his former team at Wrigley Field. The only two hitters that Chicago has that have any experience against him are Jason Heyward and Daniel Descalso. The latter of those two is 0 for 8 in his career against Arrieta. With that being said, this is a very favorable match-up for Arrieta as he has had great movement on his pitches early this season and should be able to fool the Cubs hitters at least the first two times through the lineup. After that, don’t be surprised if the Phillies bullpen comes in and slams the door shut as they were great in the just completed 3-game sweep of the Rockies. The Philadelphia bullpen also has 12 saves in 15 opportunities this season while the Cubs bullpen has already blown 5 saves in just 12 opportunities. The Phillies arguably have another edge here as they played early yesterday afternoon while the Cubs were battling it out in DC last night in a hard-fought 6-5 win. The Cubs Yu Darvish has some impressive numbers against the Phillies in his career but Franco, Herrera, Hoskins, and Segura are a combined 7 for 14. Couple that with the fact that Harper and Realmuto each crushed 2-run bombs in yesterday’s come from behind 7-5 win and you have a very dangerous Phillies lineup for Darvish to deal with. The Cubs right-hander is also without a win in his 4 home starts this season while compiling a 6.38 ERA in those Wrigley Field outings. Chicago had lost 3 of 4 before last night’s win. The Phillies enter this game having won 3 straight games overall and also having won 4 of their last 5 road games. All factors considered, there is superb underdog value here with the road team in this one. Bet the Phillies in evening action Monday