ASA

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:35 PM ET – Denver is coming off a pair of overtime games against Phoenix and the last thing they want to do here is play a fast-paced up-and-down affair with the Mavs. That shouldn’t be a concern though as the Mavericks are the 21st slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer to play slow. Denver is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league ranking 26th at 97.6 possessions per game. If we eliminate the overtimes the Nuggets have played in three of their last ten games, we find they’ve combined with their opponents to scored less than 223 points in seven of those ten games. While we are on the subject of overtimes, these two teams met on Jan 7th and totaled 218-points prior to an OT period. Dallas is coming off a game against the Rockets in which they allowed 133 points on 55% shooting by Houston. The Mavs have the 12th best FG% defense in the NBA at 45.5%. Dallas also gives up the 10th fewest points in the league at 109.4PPG. Prior to the OT game between these two earlier this year these same two teams had not totaled more than 218 points in five straight meetings. The bet here is UNDER.

#856 ASA FREE PLAY ON Furman -4.5 over UNC Greensboro, Monday at 7 PM ET – Furman started the conference season 4-0 but now sits at 4-2 after losing their last 2 games on the road. We like them to bounce back at home where they are 7-0 this year and have won 21 of their last 22 games. Because of their back to back losses, we’re getting some line value here with Furman laying 5 points. In home games vs similarly rated Southern Conference teams Mercer & ETSU, they were laying double digits in each. Furman is a veteran team returning 5 of their top 6 players from a team that went 25-7 last year and this program hasn’t lost 3 straight since the 2016 season. They also have some extra incentive here as their lone home loss in their last 22 games was vs this UNCG team last season. UNCG is a poor shooting team (41% as a team) ranking 278th in shooting percentage and 332nd in 3-point percentage. This is also a tough spot having just played on the road at Chattanooga on Saturday. It’s also their 5th game in 12 days and their 4th road game during that stretch. We like Furman in this spot.

ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse.