ASA

ASA PLAY ON 8* ATLANTA – Carolina has been an underdog in 6 of their 7 games this year. Their one shot as a favorite they lost by a TD to a Chicago team that isn’t looking all that great right now. The Panthers are coming off a huge division game @ New Orleans which went to the wire with the Saints winning by 3. Even though this is a division game as well, the Falcons are just 1-6 SU on the year so we wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina is a bit flat here as they have already beaten the Falcons. Atlanta has improved since their first meeting with Carolina which was a 23-16 loss. After they canned head coach Quinn the Birds beat Minnesota by 17 and lost to Detroit by 1 point in a very fluky ending. The Lions scored with no time remaining last week to pick up a 23-22 win. Defensively they allowed 32 PPG in their first 5 games and after Quinn was removed they are allowing 23 PPG with one of those games coming vs a Minnesota offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in YPP. There is something very fishy about this line. It opened Carolina -3 and despite more than 70% of the tickets coming in on the Panthers, it’s down to -2.5 and even -2 at some spots. Despite their earlier result vs Carolina this year, Atlanta has won and covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and we think they win outright tonight. Take the Falcons.

ASA FREE PLAY ON: UNDER 59 or 59.5 – Fresno State Bulldogs versus Colorado State Rams, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET – The Bulldogs offense did not look good in their opening week loss to Hawaii on Saturday.  Three turnovers for their new QB and more struggles likely this week against a Rams defensive unit that returns 8 starters from last season.  The issues for Colorado State early this season is a new head coach and they also have been impacted by some covid issues impacting player availability for practices.  That has been a detriment to team preparation heading into the new season and the offense is highly unlikely to simply come out firing on all cylinders right out of the gate.  Also, the Bulldogs are off a home loss and will want to respond here.  Per our computer math model, the defense for Fresno State bounces back but struggles on the offensive side of the ball are plentiful and that keeps the scoring down in this one.  FREE PLAY UNDER 59 or 59.5 in Fresno State

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) @ Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #104

The Jaguars are the hotter team with back to back wins and covers and plus are now 4-1 ATS on the season. Also, South Alabama has played the tougher early season schedule in comparison with Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing a weaker schedule, have not impressed. Georgia Southern is just 2-3 ATS this season. Their only big SU win was a blowout win over a very bad UMass team. The Eagles other 2 SU wins were by a combined 6 points even though Georgia Southern was favored by an average spread of 27 in those two games – against Campbell and UL-Monroe. Part of the reason for the line value here is because Georgia Southern has dominated this series with South Alabama and that is “baked into” this line which is making it higher than it should be. The Eagles are getting some shading for that as well as shading for the home field edge here. However, the Jaguars went 6-2 ATS last year as an underdog in SunBelt Conference action. Also, South Alabama beat UL-Monroe by 24 points last week and that is the same team that Georgia Southern only beat by a margin of 5 points. It looks like this is the year the Jags finally turn the tables on the Eagles and this one sets up well with underdog value. Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the road dog in evening action Thursday.