ASA

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers +120 over Anaheim Ducks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET – The Flyers are off a 6-3 loss but this was their first loss in regulation time since a shutout loss at New Jersey 4 weeks ago!  Not only had Philadelphia been hot, they also are expected to get Scott Laughton and Carter Hart back from covid protocols for this one.  The Ducks are trending the other direction of late.  Anaheim has lost 4 straight games and have scored an average of only 1.3 goals in the last 3 defeats.  Going further back, the Ducks have lost 11 of 18 games.  They are favored here in this one because they are on home ice but they have actually lost 5 of last 8 games played in Anaheim.  The Ducks have been held to just 1 goal in 3 of those 5 home losses.  The Flyers will be rejuvenated by reinforcements tonight and Anaheim still has some key health question marks entering this match-up.  This is a case of two teams trending opposite directions right now and the Flyers get it done here!  Take the plus money with the road dog here

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET – Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team.

#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET – Wake will be desperate for a home win after losing 2 straight down to the wire road games. At Louisville last Wednesday, Wake led by 1 with just over a minute remaining and lost by 4 despite shooting just 38% overall, 25% from deep, and making 11 fewer FT’s. At Miami on Saturday the Deacs shot much better but were only awarded 8 FT attempts the entire game while the Canes shot 27 from the line. Despite that WF was down 3 with under 3:00 minutes remaining and lost by 8. Now back at home where they are 7-0 this year and average 84 PPG, we expect them to play very well. They catch FSU off a huge road win @ NC State on Saturday and now playing again on the road just a few days later. They shot lights out (51%) in that 2 point win over NC State which is well above their season average. Even after that effort FSU is still shooting just 43% on the road so expect a big regression here vs a solid Wake defense which has allowed opponents to shoot just 38% here at home. Prior to Saturday’s win, the Noles were 0-3 SU on road games with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. They are now 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games. These 2 met last year @ FSU and a Wake team that was ranked 115th at the time nearly pulled off the upset vs an FSU team that was ranked 15th at the time. The Deacs lost that game in OT. Wake is MUCH better this season and FSU has regressed. We expect the Demon Deacons to pick up a home win on Tuesday.

#285/286 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Kansas State vs LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET – Defense is the strength of both teams in this game. KSU’s defense ranks 64 spots higher than their offense (37th to 101st) and LSU’s defense ranks 34 spots higher than their offense (63rd to 87th). Both defenses were playing very well down the stretch with KSU holding each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less and LSU held their last 4 opponents to an average of 17 PPG – which included Bama, Arkansas, and A&M. The Tigers have had a number of opt outs and transfers on both sides of the ball. They are still very talented and fast on defense but the biggest impact will be at QB. They are left with 2 walk on QB’s who’ve never played in a game so their offense can be expected to struggle big time vs a solid KSU defense. They are also a poor running team ranking 117th nationally and lost their top RB after the season so these QB’s will have to play way above their head for LSU to put significant points on the board. While the Cats do have their full complement of offensive players for this one, they were far from explosive ranking outside the top 100 in total offense. They are also the 3rd slowest paced team in all of the bowl games so that should eat clock as well. We think the LSU defense will be fine here and will keep the Wildcat offense in check. The LSU offense with no scholarship QB will have problems. Under is the play.