Art Aronson

This is a 10* on DENVER

Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is an 8* on ST LOUIS

Pittsburgh is very bad and they should be putting up very little resistance this final week of the regular season. While it’s true that the Pirates did win the series opener with the Cardinals on Thursday, they’ve since dropped three in row including a doubleheader on Friday and a 5-4 game yesterday. That leaves the Bucs at 15-37 on the season and their -87 run differential is baseball’s worst. (So is the won-loss record). St. Louis is trying to reserve a spot in the playoffs. Finishing second in the NL Central guarantees them a spot and that’s where they are now after going 3-0 the L2 days. We’ll look past Jack Flaherty’s recent poor numbers here given the opponent. He’s 5-1 vs Pittsburgh with a 1.94 ERA and 47 strikeouts in his career. The Cards are 19-9 vs. Pittsburgh since the start of last season. Pirates starter Musgrove is winless in six tries and has a 5.74 ERA. The team has scored five or less runs in all six of Musgrove’s starts. Musgrove is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight starts against the Cardinals. Play on ST LOUIS

AAA

This is a 9* on GREEN BAY

Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops here. The Lions are down three defensive starters including both cornerbacks. It was those injuries at CB that allowed for Chicago to stun them last week with a trio of fourth quarter touchdowns. Injuries aren’t limited to the defense either. The Lions will be without WR Kenny Golladay and LG Joe Dahl as well. This is a team that just blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, has lost 10 straight going back to last season and has multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball. Now they face one of the best QBs in the league, on the road. The Packers put up 43 points and 500+ yards at Minnesota last week. Since the beginning of last season, Detroit is 1-10 ATS off a loss. They are 0-5 ATS the last four games, four of which they were underdogs in. Somehow the Lions have covered six straight times against the Pack, but that streak comes to an end Sunday as Matt Patricia’s team is in no position to compete right now. Play on GREEN BAY

AAA

This is an 8* on NY GIANTS

The Giants lost on Monday Night Football, but actually played the Steelers pretty tough. Had it not been for a 19-play drive ending in a Daniel Jones interception early in the third quarter, the G-men would have likely covered the spread. As for Chicago, well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat with a 27-23 comeback in Detroit. After looking terrible for three quarters, QB Mitchell Trubisky came alive with three 4th quarter TD passes. If you’re wondering how such a transformation could take place, look no further than the fact the Lions were down their three top cornerbacks. The Bears defense, usually reliable, gave up 426 yards. Really, it was a game that the Bears had no business winning. Adrian Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per carry against them, which is shocking, so look for Giants RB Saquon Barkley to bounce back from his poor effort against the Steelers. Chicago laying so many points is definitely an “eye-opener” as they are just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times as a favorite including 0-3 their L3. The Giants are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog the L3 seasons. Play on NY GIANTS

AAA

This is a 10* on Leicester

While ending up only fifth last season may have been disappointing in retrospect (poor finish), Leicester City had to be happy with the way they opened the 2020-21 campaign. The Foxes recorded an easy 3-0 victory over West Brom last week and now look to make it back to back EPL wins for the first time since New Year’s Day. History is on their side as they’ve lost a home opener just once in the last 13 seasons. Their opponent, Burnley, have yet to hit the Premier League pitch as last week’s game vs. Man U got postponed. The Clarets had a much different finish than Leicester last season. They were beaten only twice in the last 16 games, which was quite an achievement and allowed them to finish mid-table. But they’ll come into their opener down some key players and they haven’t won here since 1968! While the Premier League opener was postponed, Burnley did just play Thursday vs. Sheffield United in EFL Cup action (where they progressed via penalty shootout). We think that’s a disadvantage. Play on LEICESTER CITY

AAA

This is a 10* on SEA

Seattle was one of the more impressive teams in Week 1. They beat Atlanta 38-25 and while the defense gave up plenty of yards, that hardly mattered with Russell Wilson playing as well as he did. Wilson threw 4 TD passes and completed 31 of his 35 attempts. The Seahawks won 11 games last year and brought back most of the key pieces. There’s no reason to believe they won’t have another successful season. New England is also accustomed to successful seasons, having had 20 years worth under Bill Belichick. Only now Tom Brady isn’t the QB. Cam Newton is. Newton had a solid start to his Patriots career, giving the offense a rushing dynamic it never had previously, but that was against Miami. Now they face a much stronger opponent and the Seahawks coaching staff still resents the Super Bowl loss from a few years back. This will snap the Patriots’ streak of 64 consecutive regular season games being favored. That makes a lot of sense given Seattle’s continuity plus it is very hard to win here at night. New England’s defense is set to take a hit this year. They lived off turnovers in 2019. While they forced three Miami TO’s last week, Seattle didn’t turn it over once in its opening game. The Patriots have failed to cover five straight times off a win. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 10* on SF

Yes, the 49ers have some injury concerns heading into Week 2. But we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty beating the hapless Jets on Sunday. You’ve got two teams that lost last week here. San Francisco’s loss was a surprise as they were 7-point favorites against Arizona. It really wasn’t a surprise to see the Jets go down in Buffalo though. Look past the 27-17 final in that one as the Jets were down 21-0 early in the second quarter and 27-10 before a late 86-yard drive was capped by a meaningless touchdown. Prior to that drive, the Jets had been outgained 404-168. QB Sam Darnold didn’t look very good at all and he lost RB Le’Veon Bell to injury. Coming off a loss, expect last year’s NFC Champs to take advantage. In the last 10 years, playoff teams that lost their season opener have bounced back to go 18-9 ATS in Week 2. The 49ers are 13-7 ATS L20 as road favorites. Furthermore, the old notion of West Coast teams struggling in 1 PM ET kicks appears to be a thing of the past. West Coast teams have won 13 of their last 16 such games while going 11-4-1 ATS. The Jets may be the worst team in the AFC. Lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA