Alex Smart

Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. 

ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER  versus struggling  defensive teams – allowing 110+ points/game – 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) – 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. 

 CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) – after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. 

The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13  as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams – allowing 110+ points/game – 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams – attempting  24 or less  free throws/game – 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.   MIAMI is 23-9 OVER   in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) – after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team – playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight. Boston is off three straight losses and will be primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side that smashed them 125-104 a couple of days ago. 

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) – revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 115-65 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

The Twins are 0-12  UNDER L/12 past the first game of a series as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks with none of the games eclipsing this total. 

Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 5-2-2 in Twins last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 21-9-2 in Twins last 32 games following a loss.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 13-6-2 in Twins last 21 during game 3 of a series.

Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Under is 47-22-3 in Indians last 72 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) – with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or worse  over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 58-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Giants starter Alex Wood(LHP)2-0, 0.75 ERA, 11 SOWood has given up only one run on four hits over 12 innings in his first two starts of the year, both of which came against the Marlins and has momentum on his side going into this matchup. 

The Rockies are 0-10 L/10 on the ML when their starter  German Marquez starts on the road when they won as an home favorite in his last start. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3   against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Marquez who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Giants to win 

Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw(LHP)3-2, 2.56 ERA, 31 SOAfter allowing five runs on Opening Day against the Rockies, Kershaw is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four starts and gets my support here today . KERSHAW is 80-28  against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team’s Record)

The Reds are 0-16 on the ML coming off a game as a road dog where they scored first, then trailed and came back to win.

Play on the Dodgers to win 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario  for an over wager to cash  .  My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total.  Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite.

CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Borrego is 15-2 OVER  in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Suns come home off an exhausting 5 game road trip and will time to get acclimated to home cooking again, and are at a disadvantage vs a Clipper side that would love to send a message to their upstart conference rivals. Note: Suns: 2-13  L/15 home after  5 or more road games. 

LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS  versus good teams – outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game – 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

BoSox starter Nick Pivetta(RHP2-0, 3.48 ERA, 18 SO)The righty had a solid last outing vs. Seattle on Thursday, giving up two runs on one hit and striking out four in six innings and my support here on a bloated runline offering. BOSTON is 8-1   against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. DEGROM is 10-14  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team’s Record) Mets top tier starter DEGROM is 10-14   against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team’s Record) DeGrom has never beaten the Red Sox in 3 career starts. 

Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog.Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 road games.

Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Red Sox are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

 .MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (NY METS) – poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Red Sox to win