Alex Smart

NYY starter COLE is 29-13 OVER   vs. terrible speed teams – averaging 0.35 or less SB’s/game.  Over is 5-1-1 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter like BoSox starter Rodriguez. 

BOSTON is 27-14 OVER in home games vs. poor base-running teams – averaging 0.5 or less SB’s/game over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 14-3 OVER  in home games after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 season.The Red Sox are 10-0 OVER L/10 in the second game of a series after they played extra inning in game one.

Over is 9-4-1 in Yankees last 14 games as a road underdog.NY YANKEES are 36-19 OVER   in road games after a 3 game span where the bullpen threw 13 total innings or more over the last 3 seasons.

Play OVER 

Mariners starter Kikuchi, didn’t pitch in the All-Star Game because he wasn’t feeling well after being placed on the coronavirus injured list, and  is coming off his worst start of the season. In a 9-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday, he allowed seven runs on nine hits in five innings. His current form makes him fade material vs a team that matches up well against him according to my projections. 

Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.

OAKLAND is 32-18  against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season.

The Mariners are 0-8 SL/8 on the ML when lefty Yusei Kikuchi starts as a dog after he averaged fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter in his last start.OAKLAND is 13-4   against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.

Athletics are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Seattle and have won 4 of L/5 meetings overall. 

Play on the Oakland As to win 

Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39) right-hander was named to his first All-Star team and has recorded a 1.91 ERA over his last 11 starts and gets my support in this spot. 

The White Sox are 0-11 L/11 as a dog after their opponent scored first last game. White Sox are 8-21 in their last 29 inter-league road games vs. a team with a winning record. CHI WHITE SOX are 15-27 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. 

Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MLB team (MILWAUKEE) – below average NL hitting team (AVG .255or less ) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), playing on Friday are 26-13 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Milwaukee to win 

Detroit starter, Bubic is 0-0 with a 3.68 ERA vs Motown. He has given up just two runs in 10 innings vs. the Tigers this year and offers up enough pitching support for the Royals for them to be successful in this spot vs a streaking Tigers team. 

Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Royals are 12-0 L/12 on the ML as a home favorite after they scored first before trailing and then coming back to win last game.

 Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games following an off day.

MLB Home teams (KANSAS CITY) – below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings are 31-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Kansas City to cover 

Cubs  Davies since May 1,  has made 15 starts and has garnered a 3.10 ERA. He has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 15 starts and against a inconsistent Arizona offence Im betting he holds the fort again. Meanwhile, the Cubs offence has really struggled for a while now, and here against the Diamondbacks   Zac Gallen (1-4, 3.86), Im betting will provide support . He   allowed a run, three hits and struck out seven with a walk over 5 2/3 innings against the Cubs on Saturday.Under is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 1 of a series.Under is 9-4 in Diamondbacks last 13 vs. National League Central. Under is 7-1-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. National League West.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER