Alex Smart

 Pirates right-hander Vince Velasquez (4-3, 3.06 ERA) is expected to be activated from the injured list to face Seattle ace Luis Castillo (3-2, 2.97). Velasquez iw fresh but rusty after the lay off and Im betting the Mariners tag him for some offensive production early. Meanwhile , Castillo according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Pirates matchup well here, and more runs than anticipated by the pundits and lines-makers should easily help up get an over wager to cash here. 

PITTSBURGH is 15-4 OVER  after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons. 

Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 25-10-1 in Pirates last 36 vs. American League West.

Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Velesquez.

Over is 9-4 in Mariners last 13 during game 2 of a series.

MLB  team (SEATTLE) – average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 31-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on the over 

Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (6-4, 2.98 ERA) takes to the mound after being away from the club a few days due to personal reasons and Im betting the veteran is now rested and fresh enough to give the Rays batting order all they can handle. 

KERSHAW is 4-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 0.846.

KERSHAW is 93-34against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team’s Record). KERSHAW is 150-55 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in his career. (Team’s Record)

Meanwhile, the  Rays will reply with starter who Glasnow has been sidelined by injuries. Im betting he will take some time to get back to viability giving the Dodgers an edge.  Glasnow doesn’t have much history facing the Dodgers. In four innings, all in relief, he has allowed six runs, leading to an bloated 13.50 ERA.

Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter.Dodgers are 72-24 in their last 96 during game 2 of a series.

Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) – very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games are 8-31 L/26 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win

Dallas left everything on the ice in game 4 of this series with a 3-2 OT win  to extend it to a 5th game in Las Vegas. The Stars even though they found a way to win last time out, just dont seem to have the same grit and fortitude as the Knights, and now in an emotional letdown spot, could easily regress against a very determined Knights group playing at home.  

Stars are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.Stars are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Golden Knights are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.Golden Knights are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Golden Knights are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Central. Golden Knights are 23-9 in their last 32 home games.

Favorite is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Golden Knights to win 

The Celtics in their last two games  are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial  noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) – after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.Play under

The Heat after an amazing play off run and top tier game 3 performance in this series , looked to have hit their peak and now regression has reared its ugly head. With the Celtics now in top form the Heat are in trouble, and Im betting on at least one more meltdown here tonight by the home side  in Miami against what my power rankings suggest is a  superior Celtics  side.Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Celtics own a 5-2 mark in their L/7 trips to Miami.BOSTON is 14-6 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MIAMI is 8-21 ATS   after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Celtics to cover