8* Bayer Leverkusen (3:00 ET): Swiss side Young Boys took the first leg of this Round of 32 tie by a score of 4-3. But by mounting a second half comeback in that one, Bayer Leverkusen positioned themselves well to still move on to the Round of 16 in this year’s Europa League. They still have to win Thursday, mind you. But a win is likely all they need as their three away goals from the first leg are likely to ensure they move on if the overall aggregate score ends up tied. For those unfamiliar, the aggregate (overall) number of goals scored is the first tiebreaker if the two sides end up splitting the two legs. The next tiebreak is the number of away goals scored. 

So as long as Leverkusen is able to win Thursday and keep Young Boys under three goals, then they progress to the Round of 16. That scenario seems likely to happen as far as I’m concerned. I know Leverkusen got off to a very “sleepy” start in the first leg, falling behind 3-0 in the first half. And a 1-1 draw with Augsburg in the Bundesliga over the weekend doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence. However, winning the Europa League now seems to be taking on an added importance given it’s looking less likely Leverkusen finishes in the top four of the German top flight.

Young Boys have won seven straight across all competitions, but remember they are generally not facing the same caliber of opponent. Yes, they did defeat Leverkusen before. But it’s a virtual guarantee that the fast start they enjoyed at home is not going to repeat itself here. If Young Boys fall behind here, and I expect they will, then they’re going to have to “open things up” (in an effort to score), which leaves them more vulnerable on the back end. 8* Bayer Leverkusen

2/23 UPDATE: Wednesday's Champions League play on Manchester City was released two weeks ago. Since then, the line has skyrocketed. If you do not feel comfortable playing that large of a favorite, I'd recommend passing rather than the goal line. 

7* Manchester City (3:00 ET): Man City has been the most dominant side in all of Europe this season and thus enters the Round of 16 as the favorite to win this year’s Champions League. I just took them on Sunday when they rolled to a 1-0 win over Arsenal in the Premier League. They scored the lone goal just two minutes in. It was a surprise that they failed to find the back of the net again, but at the same time it was the Citizens’ 23rd clean sheet this season and 13th in the last 17 EPL matches. 

It’s not just the Premier League that Man City is dominating. They’ve won 18 straight across all competitions, outscoring the opposition 47-6 during the run! Here in the Champions League, they topped Group C with 16 points, winning five and drawing once. They conceded only one goal in the six matches, the fewest of any side in the Group Stage. They finished tied with Bayern Munich for the best goal differential at +12.

Drawing Man City here in the Round of 16 was a bad break for Gladbach, but their own recent poor form gives even more reason for pessimism. They’ve fallen to eighth in the Bundesliga following a 2-1 loss to Mainz (a side that will almost surely be relegated) and now nine points adrift of the top four, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see them back in the Champions League next year. Even worse is that they’ve become a bit of a “lame duck” with manager Marco Rose already announcing he’ll be heading to rival Dortmund this summer. Gladbach may have been the best side in Group B, but they finished just 2-2-2 and they enter Wednesday’s 1st leg having won only once in their last five fixtures. This is their 1st ever appearance in the knockout stage and it’s likely to be a short stay. 7* Manchester City

10* Bayern Munich (3:00 ET): Despite a recent “downturn” in domestic form, there is no denying that Bayern Munich knows how to “turn it on” when it comes to European Football. The reigning champs of the continent are unbeaten in their last 17 Champions League fixtures and they easily won Group A this season by taking 16 out of a possible 18 points. After losing 2-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday, Bayern’s Bundesliga lead has been trimmed down to just two points. I believe they’ll respond “in kind” here in the 1st leg of the Round of 16 against Serie A side Lazio. 

Lazio looked good in Saturday’s 1-0 win over Sampdoria, moving them up into a fourth place tie in Serie A. They probably should have won by more, however, let’s not be quick to forget the previous week’s result, that being a 3-1 loss to Inter. Despite LY’s top four finish in Serie A, I’m skeptical we’ll see Lazio back in the Champions League next season. They obviously weren’t nearly as dominant in the Group stage as was Bayern Munich. It was  second place in a fairly weak Group F that was topped by another Bundesliga side, Dortmund. 

So Bayern is actually on a two-match winless run with the loss to Frankfurt and a 3-3 draw against Arminia Bielefeld (where they fell behind 3-0). Two matches without a win is usually no big deal, but it’s a little stunning when you’re THIS side. My view is that they are going to come out firing Tuesday. Fixing a leaky defense is easier said than done, but if Bayern plays the way it did in the 2nd half vs. Frankfurt, then they’re going to win here. Lazio can’t match Bayern’s goal-scoring capability (who can?). 10* Bayern Munich

10* Brighton Hove & Albion (3:00 ET): Brighton comes into this Monday match three points back of Crystal Palace and 16th in the table, only four points clear of the relegation zone. However, I think there’s a pretty clear argument to be made that BH&A is the superior side on the pitch today and should probably be much higher in the table. Their -5 YTD goal differential is actually 12th “best” in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has the league’s 4th worst goal differential (-15) and I feel they are the ones that should be more concerned with the possibility of relegation at season’s end. 

While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Crystal Palace has dropped B2B matches with an aggregate score of 5-0. They lost 2-0 to Leeds United, then 3-0 to Burnley last week. Those are middle of the table sides (at best) and other than a 1-0 triumph over Wolverhampton on Jan 30, the Eagles haven’t beaten anybody outside the top four since November. They’ve lost 11 times this season, which is three more than BH&A. 

Brighton is actually on a six-match unbeaten run in the Premier League heading into today, more proof that they are probably deserving of a better “current lot in life.” They’ve won three and drawn three during this stretch. Wins over the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham demonstrate what they are capable of and I like the fact they’ve conceded no more than one goal in 10 consecutive matches (5 clean sheets). Crystal Palace is still without top goal scorer Wilfried Zala, so this is a golden opportunity for Brighton to snap a three-game losing skid to this particular opponent. 10* Brighton Hove & Albion

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): This is a critical three points here for Roma, who enter Sunday in a third place tie with Lazio (ahead on goal differential) in Serie A table. But 5th place Juventus is just one point behind and has a game in hand. Then you’ve got the fact that the winner of 6th place Napoli vs. 7th place Atalanta (earlier on Sunday) will draw even with Roma. So it’s imperative that the Giallorossi come through with what would be a third straight win here in the Italian top flight. I think they will. 

Benevento has not been in good form for a while now and has fallen to 15th in the table. They actually have the third worst goal differential (-17) in the league with only the hideous marks of Parma and Crotone being worse. So they’re lucky to not be even lower in the table and it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where they are fighting off relegation by season’s end. Last year’s Serie B champs are winless in the last six Serie A fixtures, though they’ve played to a 1-1 draw in each of the last two. But those were against Bologna and Sampdoria, two sides nowhere close to the quality of the side they’ll face here. 

Benevento has conceded 42 times this season. Again, only the bottom two (Parma, Crotone) have conceded more. They’ve lost three straight to Roma, by an aggregate score of 14-4, conceding at least three goals every time out. The reverse fixture, back in October, was a 5-2 final. Roma won 3-0 last week in Serie A competition (against Udinese), then was able to rest some key contributors in an easy midweek win over Braga in the Europa League. They have a 26-match win streak against newly promoted sides, the longest active streak in all of Serie A. 10* AS Roma

7* Manchester City (11:30 AM ET): Man City has emerged as the best side in all of Europe this season. They are better than Bayern Munich and better than Atletico Madrid. They are better than everybody. Not only have they won 12 straight times here in the EPL, but they’ve won 17 in a row across all competitions, an all-time record for an English side. The last time they lost was November 21st to Tottenham, which was 25 matches ago. Since then, they’ve kept 12 clean sheets in 16 EPL matches. Their 22 clean sheets this season are the most of any side in Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. You can’t go against ‘em right now. 

All this dominance has opened up a 10-point lead on the rest of the field. On Sunday, The Citizens head to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal, who are firmly a middle of the table side at this point. The hosts are currently 22 points back of Man City and 10th in the table. A 4-2 win last week over Leeds snapped a three-match winless streak in the Premier League for the Gunners, but they simply have not fared well in this fixture - losing the last seven EPL meetings. It was 1-0 in the reverse fixture back in October. They’ve also failed to score a single goal against Man City in any of the last three home league games. 

It’s not just how many times Man City has won in a row, it’s HOW they’re winning. All those clean sheets speak to their dominance over the rest of the league. They did concede a goal last week to Everton, but also scored three of their own. That was the fourth straight match Man City scored at least three times, one of those coming in the FA Cup. All five wins in February have been by 2+ goals. In addition to a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture, they also hold a 4-1 win over Arsenal in the EFL Cup this season. 7* Manchester City.

10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Second place Real Madrid will be gunning for their fourth consecutive La Liga victory on Saturday as they look to continue their pursuit of Atletico Madrid. Los Blancos currently trail the table leaders by six points as of this writing, but that gap could very well be widened to nine by the time they get on the pitch Saturday night (Atletico plays Levante earlier in the day). Fortunately for Zidane’s side, this should be an easy three points against a struggling side facing the prospect of relegation. 

Real Valladolid currently sits 18th in the table with 21 points. That would mean relegation, although it should be noted they are tied with Eibar. However, they are behind on goal differential and the two teams behind them are just one win away from tying them. This is a top heavy league this year with the top six having clearly separated themselves and the top four likely already determined. After that, there’s not much difference, especially in the bottom half of the table. Real Valladolid are off a 1-1 draw with Eibar, however the issue here is that they are facing the #2 team in La Liga. 

The reverse fixture earlier this year ended 1-0 in Real Madrid’s favor and Valladolid has not beaten Los Blancos in more than 12 years. Tied for the 4th worst home mark in the league this season, it’s not going to happen here. Real Madrid had no problem with Valencia last week, winning 2-0, and with two tougher fixtures on the horizon, this is one where they’ve got to take the full three. Valladolid is winless in their last six in La Liga, three of those being losses. This price is VERY cheap, all things considered. 10* Real Madrid

7* Atletico Madrid (10:15 AM ET): The La Liga table leaders are out for revenge Saturday as they face the same side that played them to a surprising 1-1 draw on Wednesday. This immediate rematch is brought about by rescheduling due to COVID. When I say that the 1-1 draw Wednesday was “surprising,” I mean in multiple ways. First off, Levante is a middle of the table side that’s 10 points back of Europa League qualifying. Also, Atletico Madrid had substantial edges in possession time and shots on goal. 

I’ve said it before, but Atletico Madrid just may be the best team in all of Europe this season. They’ll get a chance to prove that when they face Chelsea as Champions League play resumes Tuesday. But here on the domestic side of things, there is no denying just how dominant Atletico has been. While two of their four draws have come over the previous three fixtures, they’ve still suffered only one defeat this entire campaign. They are six points clear of second place Real Madrid (with a match in hand) and a +31 YTD goal differential. 

Levante is winless in its last 14 away matches here. It’s difficult to imagine them earning a second consecutive draw, even with Atletico having “bigger things” on its mind (ie. Tuesday’s 1st leg vs Chelsea). Levante has also conceded 33 times this season, more than double the number of time Atletico has, and among the most in all of La Liga. They’ve won just once in their last six La Liga matches. Scoring early on Wednesday was key to earning the point. Don’t see that happening again. 7* Atletico Madrid

8* VfL Wolfsburg (2:30 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Bundesliga table meet Friday when Wolfsburg travels to face Arminia Bielefeld. Wolfsburg is tied with another surprising side, Eintracht Frankfurt, for third place and can have that position to itself. Given Frankfurt is facing Bayern Munich Saturday, this represents an excellent chance for the Wolves to make a move. Arminia Bielefeld is simply trying to fight off relegation and move out of the bottom three as they are in 16th place right now. 

Both these sides played to a draw last week. I’d argue that Bielefeld’s draw was both more impressive and more disappointing. They had Bayern Munich on the ropes, twice holding a two-goal lead. But they had to settle for a 3-3 final against the kings of Europe, a result they gladly would have taken going into the fixture, but are probably disheartened over given they probably should have taken the full three points. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg played to a 0-0 draw with Gladbach, which had to be hugely unsatisfying given they held an edge in both shots and possession. 

That draw may have been a disappointment, however, Wolfsburg had won their four previous Bundesliga matches and have only been beaten twice the entire campaign. That’s tied for the fewest losses in the entire league. They’ve got a huge matchup advantage here in that they have conceded only 19 goals this season, second fewest in the league, while Bielefeld has scored the second FEWEST goals in the league (18). Before we go giving Bielefeld “too much credit” for last week’s draw, note they had an extra week to prepare and were outshot badly. 8* Wolfsburg

6* Tottenham (12:55 ET): Tottenham Hotspur looks to shake off its recent poor domestic form and return to its winning ways in the Europa League on Thursday. The Spurs’ opposition for the Round of 32 is Wolfsberger, an Austrian Bundesliga side that is competing in the knockout stage of a major European competition for the very first time. As the odds indicate, anything but a comfortable win for Tottenham in this first leg would be a major shocker. I expect a comfortable win.

Note: this match is being played in Budapest (Puskas Arena) due to COVID-19 protocols. So there’s no home turf advantage for Wolfsberger, making the mountain an even more difficult climb. They finished second in Group K, which didn’t include any teams from Europe’s Big 5 leagues. They won three, lost two and drew once in the Group Stage, finishing with a +1 goal differential. Quite frankly, that’s not all that impressive and they are not used to the level of competition they’ll face here in the Round of 32. Wolfsberger is only sixth in the Austrian Bundesliga currently, so it’s not like they’re even dominating the lesser competition. 

In the midst of a disappointing Premier League campaign (six points out of the top four), Tottenham can still salvage some dignity by winning the Europa League. They are among the favorites to do so after winning Group J by taking 13 of a possible 18 points. They had a goal differential of +10. This is Tottenham’s 10th time in the Europa League knockout stage and Jose Mourinho hasn’t lost an away knockout match since 2002. 6* Tottenham

10* Sassuolo (12:00 ET): I can’t say I’m surprised to see that Sassuolo has tumbled down the table a bit as I’ve previously faded them multiple times. Their winless run in Serie A now stands at five straight matches with three of those being defeats. This poor form has them down in 8th place and nine points out of the top four. However, it would certainly appear that we are able to get them at a real “bargain” on Sunday as they travel to face bottom of the table Crotone, whose recent form has been even worse.

It will take nothing short of a miracle for Crotone to escape relegation. Sure, they are technically only five points away from safety, but conceding at a rate of 2.5 goals per match is certainly not a recipe for success. Their 50 goals allowed this season are easily Serie A’s most with the second most being Spezia’s 42 and Crotone has a game in hand compared to them. The Squali have now lost five of six after being drubbed 4-1 by Milan last week and there are few signs of hope for this side right now.

The reverse fixture took place back in October and saw Sassuolo prevail by a score of 4-1. At the time, the Neroverdi were in the midst of three consecutive matches with four goals scored. They haven’t matched that output in any fixture since, but with Domenico Berardi set to return, they very well could do it here. Last week’s surprising 2-1 loss to Spezia still fresh in the mind, Sassulo can’t let the opportunity for three points bypass them here after previous draws against the likes of Cagliari and Parma. 10* Sassuolo

6* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 AM ET): Frankfurt looks to continue its incredible recent form on Sunday as they host FC Koln. Their last loss occurred all the way back on 12/11 to Wolfsburg, a side they can pass by picking up the three points here. Since losing to Wolfsburg, Frankfurt is unbeaten in nine consecutive Bundesliga matches, winning seven and drawing two. They are currently 5th in the table, but if things break right, they could end up as high as third (and back in Champions League qualifying position) were they to win here. I believe they will.

Koln is at the other end of the table, sitting in 14th place. But they have won three of their last four Bundesliga fixtures and are currently four points clear of the relegation zone. Just last week they ended an 8-match unbeaten streak of Gladbach, so they will be the proverbial “tough out.” However, they still have a -13 goal differential on the season and have scored only half the number of goals that Frankfurt has. The reverse fixture may have been 1-1, but this is a much different Frankfurt team that Koln will be facing this time around.

Even as someone who expected Frankfurt to improve this campaign (go back and check my early season analysis!), even I have been taken aback by the recent form. They’ve scored at least two goals in nine consecutive matches and found the back of the net 11 times in just the last three. Andre Silva and Filip Kostic are as potent as any duo in Europe right now and I just see too much firepower for Koln to keep up. With both Dortmund and Leverkusen held to a draw yday, the door is now wide open for Frankfurt to move back into the top four and I say they take advantage and get the full three. 6* Eintracht Frankfurt

6* AC Milan (2:45 ET): Table leaders AC Milan look to extend their advantage over Inter as they travel to face surprising Spezia. AC Milan has not won Serie A in a decade, but right now sits at the top with 49 points. However, Inter (47) is hot on their heels and you can never count on nine-time defending champion Juventus (42). Getting the full three points here is somewhat of a must and certainly achievable considering Milan won the reverse fixture 3-0 back in October and has a much better record away than Spezia does at home. 

When I called Spezia “surprising” earlier in the analysis, I was referring to the fact that most considered the Serie A first timers a lock for relegation at the start of the season. But here they are sitting 16th and several points clear of the bottom three. They defeated Sassuolo 2-1 last week, a side in the top half of the table, so Milan must be “on guard” Saturday. But before that win, Spezia had been winless in their last three Serie A competitions, twice failing to score a single goal. While they’ve had some shocking victories this season, only once have they won at home. 

After exiting the Coppa Italia in the quarterfinals and losing 3-0 at home to Atalanta, AC Milan has bounced back with two straight victories. Last week it was a convincing 4-0 clean sheet against last place Crotone. No side has been better on the road this year as Milan has nine wins and one draw in 10 away fixtures and they are now on a 17-match unbeaten run away from Stadio Giuseppe Meazza dating back to last season. With a tough upcoming schedule, there will be a clear focus here on gaining the full three points. 6* AC Milan

10* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Believe it or not, Torino has not won at home since last summer! Then again, maybe that should not be all that surprising as the Granada have just two wins this entire Serie A campaign. But there have been recent signs of improvement on the pitch, namely last week’s thrilling 3-3 draw with Atalanta which saw Torino battle back from a three-goal deficit. It was their fourth consecutive draw in Serie A and fifth across all competitions. That run of points has allowed them to escape the relegation zone, albeit barely, as they are now 17th in the table and one point clear. 

Genoa has engineered a more shocking turnaround as they’ve climbed from the depths of Serie A to a respectable 12th in the table. They’ve done so by winning four of their previous five matches, including 2-1 over Napoli last weekend. A change in coaching and top goalscorer Mattia Destro getting hot have been the primary reasons for this turnaround, but I’ve also got to point to the fact they’ve mostly been beating the bottom teams in the league, such as Crotone, Cagliari and Bologna, two of which currently occupy spots in the relegation zone. For the record, Genoa has not won four straight Serie A matches since 2009. 

Torino’s last home victory, ironically enough, came against Genoa by a score of 3-0. While I don’t think it will be that lopsided this time around, I do expect the home side to pick up the three points here. In some more irony, current boss Davide Nicola was the coach for Genoa back then. He, like counterpart Davide Ballardini, has led a bit of a turnaround and certainly last week’s result should have the players “smelling victory.” They’ve had Genoa’s number the last few seasons with a 7-match unbeaten run that has seen them outscore the Ligurians 11-3. Today will be Torino’s day to win at home - finally. 10* Torino

6* Celta de Vigo (3:00 ET): Something is going to have to give on Friday as Celta de Vigo, who has not won a La Liga match since the end of December, hosts an Elche side whose winless run in the Spanish top flight dates back to October 23rd! On the bright side, both clubs earned “hard-fought” draws last week against opponents that are in the top six of the table. Despite the respective forms somewhat mirroring each other, you’ll notice Celta de Vigo is a prohibitive favorite on home soil and I heartily agree with the oddsmakers’ assessment. 

The truth is that Celta de Vigo is in a much better position than Elche and their draw last week was a lot more impressive. While the equalizer did not come until the 89th minute, the fact they were able to even gain a point facing table leaders Atletico Madrid was a bit of a shocker. After all, Atletico came into the fixture having won 16 of its 19 La Liga matches this season and had conceded only 10 goals. That Celta scored twice on them deserves substantial praise. They are now 10th in the table with 26 points. 

Elche had a shocking comeback last week as they trailed Villarreal 2-0 at halftime, only to score twice in the second half to share the points. Still, Elche is 19th in the table and has won only three times in 20 matches this season. Next week’s clash with Eibar presents an opportunity to escape the relegation zone, but I am far more pessimistic about their chances here as Vigo will be looking to atone for a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture back in November. Los Celestes have drawn in each of the last three matches and are desperate for the three points here. It’s among the best chances for victory they’ve had in a while. 6* Celta de Vigo

8* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): Atletico Madrid hasn’t won a La Liga title since 2013-14, but they seem well on their way this season. For my money, this has been the best side in all of Europe this campaign, even better than Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. Even with Barcelona winning yesterday (big win for me!), Atletico Madrid is still seven points clear at the top of the table. They’ve won 16, drawn twice and lost only once in the Spanish top flight so far and have conceded just 10 goals all season. The Red and Whites are going for their 9th straight La Liga win Monday and I consider this to be absurdly cheap price. 

Celta de Vigo is the opposition this week. They currently sit in the middle of the table, in 11th place, with only 25 points and a -7 goal differential. Recent form hasn’t been good either as the Sky Blues are winless in their L5 La Liga matches, though they’ve drawn in each of the last two. Still, those draws came against Eibar and Granada, a whole different class of opponent compared to what they’ll face here. Not only has Atletico Madrid conceded the fewest number of goals in all of La Liga (it’s not even close), but they’ve scored the second most. It was 2-0 in the reverse fixture back in October. 

I anticipate a similar score on Monday as Atletico is almost impossible to beat here at home. They’ve conceded only three times all year here! They’ve won 9 of the 10 matches as well. Celta de Vigo has won only one time in 11 away matches this season. Can’t even see them being able to earn a third straight draw this week. I backed Atletico a few weeks ago against Eibar and thought that was an insanely cheap price. At Wanda Metropolitano, this one may be an even better bargain. 8* Atletico Madrid

10* Barcelona (3:00 ET): I have been waiting patiently for the right time to fade Real Betis and wouldn’t you know that time is Super Sunday? Now it’s definitely a good thing I haven’t decided to fade Betis previous to this, at least in La Liga competition, as they’re unbeaten in their last five in the Spanish top flight. That has them 7th in the table (as of this writing), but a -7 YTD goal differential and nine losses this season tell me this side is more “pretender” than “contender.” They’ve really been beating up on some of the “lesser” La Liga sides of late, but now they must face Barcelona, winners of five straight across all competitions.

Midweek saw both sides take part in quarterfinal action in the Copa del Rey. Barca advanced with a wild 5-3 win over Granada, but Betis was not as fortunate, losing on penalties to Athletic Bilbao. That was Betis’ first defeat in any competition since the New Year, ending an eight-game run across all competitions. But as I said earlier, they’ve mainly been winning against sides at the bottom of the table. They’ve yet to defeat anyone in the top six this La Liga season and lost the reverse fixture to Barcelona 5-2 back on November 7th. They’ve now lost four straight to Barca. 

While it is unlikely anyone catches Atletico Madrid for the top spot in the La Liga table, Barcelona is a good bet to finish second as they are unbeaten here since the start of December. They have the second best goal differential (+23) so there’s nothing at all “phony” about this run and I certainly see Barca scoring multiple goals in this one, considering their 41 on the season is tops in La Liga while Betis’ has conceded a league-high 34 times. Again, that’s another reason to doubt Betis moving forward, considering they’ve conceded more goals than anybody else. They are long overdue to lose a league match. 10* Barcelona

8* Sevilla (3:00 ET): As I’ve said many times before, the top six in the La Liga table have really separated themselves from “the rest of the herd.” Well, maybe not in terms of points just yet, but there’s only one side in the rest of the league with a positive goal differential and they (Athletic Bilbao) are only +2 and sitting in 11th place. Other than table leaders Atletico Madrid, who is way out in front (50 points) and just might be the best team in all of Europe this season, you won’t find a La Liga side in better form than Sevilla, who come into this fixture having won six straight across all competitions.

Midweek, Los Nervionenses (that’s Sevilla) ousted second tier side Almeria in the quarterfinals of the Copa del Rey tournament, setting up a semifinal showdown with Barcelona. The first leg will be next week. But now it's back to La Liga action here with a match against Getafe, who sit 12th and have scored only 17 goals this campaign, second fewest in the league. Last week was a goalless draw with Alaves. Now that was an upgrade over the previous week where they were taken to the woodshed by Athletic Bilbao, 5-1. Getafe’s away form has not been good this season as they have claimed only nine points from nine matches, winning only two. 

This is an important three points here for Sevilla, who could vault into second with a win, depending on what happens with Real Madrid earlier in the year. Regardless, they’d be no lower than third. The reigning Europa League Champions would love nothing more to “upgrade” to the Champions League next season and winning matches like this one is what provides that upgrade. Sevilla has been absolutely dominant of late, keeping four consecutive clean sheets. Given Getafe’s struggles scoring, this should be an easy one. 8* Sevilla

7* Villareal (12:30 ET): Villareal, like Sevilla, is in the top six of the La Liga table. One of these sides is not making it to the Europa or Champions League. Of the six, it’s Villareal that’s got the lowest YTD goal differential (+9) but the Yellow Submarine can also claim to have the second fewest number of losses (2) in the entire top Spanish flight. They look to have an easy one on Saturday as they travel to face Elche, a struggling side I faded just last week. Let’s do it again. 

As discussed thoroughly in last week’s analysis, Elche is in very poor form right now. They added to it with a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Valencia last Saturday, something I was obviously glad to see. That now means they have just two wins in their last 17 fixtures across all competitions and both came against third tier sides in Spanish football. Their last La Liga victory came all the way back on October 23rd (against Valencia). This winless run now has them 19th in the table, second from the bottom and firmly in the relegation zone. 

The fact Villareal just got bounced from the Copa del Rey midweek (1-0 loss to Levante) has to be terribly disappointing, but Elche should be all too accommodating as they look to get over it. Considering it was a goalless draw the last time these two sides hooked up (back on December 6th), Villareal will take nothing for granted. They’ve also drawn in each of their last three La Liga fixtures, two coming versus “lesser” sides, so they are DESPERATE for the three points Saturday. I say they get it. 8* Villareal

8* Juventus (12:00 ET): Will this be the season that Juventus’ nine-year run atop Serie A ends? Well, they are currently just 4th in the table, eight points back of Inter Milan after Friday. However, Juve have two matches in hand and don’t think for a second they aren’t in fine form. Because they are. They’ve won five straight across all competitions and just won the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi final battle with Inter by a score of 2-1. Prior to that, they’d kept four consecutive clean sheets.

Third place Roma is the opposition for Juve this week. Roma treated me well last week by downing Hellas Verona 3-1. That was my 10* Soccer Game of the Month. The win kept them in third, one point ahead of Juventus. But I detailed some of the folly this side has delivered recently and that really can’t be ignored. I looked past it in a revenge spot against an inferior side, but this is a much different situation as Juventus has actually not beaten Roma in either of the previous two fixtures. But one of those was late last season when Juve already had the Serie A title wrapped up.

Juventus is tied with both Inter and AC Milan for the fewest number of losses in the league (2). They also have a better YTD goal differential compared to Roma (+21 vs. +11) despite having played one fewer match. Another significant edge is that Juventus has conceded the fewest number of goals in Serie A (18). Roma has conceded 33 times, easily the most of any side in the top half of the table. Prior to beating Hellas Verona last week, Roma had won just one of the previous three across all competitions, including the humiliating Coppa Italia exit due to bringing on an extra substitute. They also aren’t at home this week (where they’ve yet to lose). Their away form is much poorer and there’s the fact they’ve yet to defeat any of the top eight teams in the league. 8* Juventus

9* Aston Villa (3:00 ET): It was two weeks ago, right before they beat Newcastle United, that I predicted Aston Villa was set to make a run up the Premier League table. Following that 1-0 win, I took them again, this time against Burnley. Sadly, the West Midlands outfit twice blew a one-goal advantage and lost that fixture 3-2. But they quickly bounced back with another 1-0 triumph, this one against Southampton on Saturday. This leaves AV with 32 points from their 19 matches (still two in hand compared to some of the teams they are chasing) and in 9th place in the table. Only two sides - Man City and Liverpool - can claim better YTD goal differentials, however. 

West Ham had been as hot as any Premier League side prior to losing to Liverpool at London Stadium on Sunday. The Hammers’ lone goal came at the 87th minute and was pretty meaningless as they were down 3-0. Still, they can have to be happy about their current position in the table, which is 5th, meaning Europa League qualification. They’d won six straight across all competitions before tasting defeat at the hands of Liverpool. But despite this good form, they have a YTD goal differential of just +4 (Aston Villa is +13). As a result, I’m a little bearish on the Hammers’ future prospects. 

After having their long win streak come to an end, expect West Ham to lose again Wednesday. They’ve conceded five times in their last two Premier League matches, a troubling sign, and have scored 1 goal or less in five of the previous seven. Aston Villa is playing better at home since the COVID interruptions and has just as many wins (10) on the season as does West Ham. This is also a huge revenge spot with West Ham having taken the reverse fixture by a 2-1 count back on November 30th. 9* Aston Villa

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): As long as Roma can stay out of its own way here, I see no reason why they don’t grab the full three points Sunday. There have been some inexplicable gaffes by the Giallorossi this season, the most recent coming in last week’s exit from the Coppa Italia. Because they foolishly brought an extra substitute in that match, the result was a 3-0 loss to Spezia. A similar mistake was made when they last faced this week’s opponent, Hellas Verona, as they fielded an ineligible player there. Due to that mistake, a scoreless draw was changed to a 3-0 Hellas Verona win, a critical two-point loss for Roma. 

The good news is that Roma showed what it is capable of by bouncing back to defeat Spezia last week 4-3 in Serie A action. The fact they were able to avenge the embarrassing Coppa Italia exit should give them confidence here as they look to exact some revenge against Hellas Verona. Another confidence builder is Roma’s home record as they are the only Serie A side to not taste defeat on its own soil. No side has earned more points at home and the 25 home goals scored are level with Inter and Napoli for most in all of Serie A. They have dominated Hellas Verona at home through the years, never losing in the last 23 tries and winning 18 times. 

Hellas Verona currently sits 8th in the table with 30 points. That’s seven behind their third place opponents Sunday. This is a very critical match for both sides as 4th place Juventus is likely to pick up points Saturday and then early on Sunday 5th place Atalanta takes on 7th place Lazio. The issue for HV is that they have scored the fewest number of goals this season (25) of any team in the top half of the table. Last week’s come from behind effort at Napoli will be difficult to duplicate. Look for Roma’s unbeaten run at home to continue on Sunday. 10* AS Roma

8* Valencia (12:30 ET): Two struggling La Liga sides hook it up on the pitch Saturday. Valencia currently sits 14th in the table, but is only two points clear of the relegation zone, which is where Elche (19th) sits right now. Los Che have just one La Liga victory since delivering a shocking upset of Real Madrid back in November. But they have been far more competitive than has Elche, who hasn’t won a match in the Spanish top flight since mid-October. The hosts boast the better YTD goal differential as well, so I’m backing Valencia to bag the three points here. 

It was a decent start last week vs. 1st place Atletico Madrid as Valencia opened the scoring in the 11th minute. But from there, they were simply overwhelmed by the table leaders, conceding three times and going down rather easily. Now there’s no shame in losing to Atletico, who in my opinion has been the best side in all of Europe this season. A 3-0 loss to Sevilla midweek, which knocked Valencia out of the Copa del Rey, was pretty ugly. But again, that was at the hands of a top six La Liga side. This week’s opponent occupies a place at the opposite end of the table and should be a welcome sight at Mestalla.

Elche has also been bounced from the Copa del Rey, only their exit came at the hands of a Segunda Division club. Incredibly, they have just two wins in their 16 matches - across all competitions - and both came against sides that play in the third tier of Spanish football. Their last win was October 23rd … against Valencia, making this a huge revenge spot for the home side. They couldn’t possibly live with themselves losing to a side in such poor form twice in the same campaign. So expect a motivated showing here, especially since Elche has two matches in hand. 8* Valencia

9* Stuttgart (2:30 ET): Incredibly, Stuttgart has yet to deliver a single home victory this season. For the record, it’s been five draws and three losses. But it’s not just the home form that should concern Die Roten. With only one win in their last seven matches, they have fallen down to 10th place in the Bundesliga table and are bordering on irrelevancy. The past two weeks have seen them go down 3-1 at the hands of Arminia Bielefeld and 2-1 at the hands of Freiburg. They desperately need three points this week and fortunately I think relegation-bound Mainz will be accommodating. 

Mainz can certainly identify with Stuttgart’s home struggles. After all, prior to last week, they were also w/o a home victory this campaign. But then they shocked second place RB Leipzig 3-2 last weekend. As shocking (and impressive) as that win was, let’s not be quick to forget that Mainz is still seven points away from being out of the relegation zone. Last week was just their second overall win this season and they’ve lost 12 of their 18 matches with a -20 goal differential. They are very much the second worst side in the table with historically bad Schalke the only one below them. 

Stuttgart certainly got off to a decent start last week, opening the scoring in the 7th minute. But they allowed Freiburg to answer twice before halftime and that was it. Very disappointing loss considering Stuttgart had 27 shots on goal and controlled possession 60 percent of the time. On the flip side, Mainz was certainly a little fortunate in their victory last week with two set piece equalizers before Leandro Barreiro shocked Leipzig with what proved to be the game-winner in the 50th minute. Unfortunately, Barreiro may be unavailable here (injury), part of a long injury list for the visitors. You have to figure Stuttgart is due to win at home and I love the idea of fading Mainz off a (rare) win. 9* Stuttgart

10* Aston Villa (1:00 ET): I know Burnley has won two straight matches, one of them being of a rather historic nature, but this price on Aston Villa seems quite generous given where both sides currently sit in the table. The Clarets remain 15th even after becoming the first Premier League visitors to defeat Liverpool at Anfield since April of 2017. That shocking 1-0 win occurred last Thursday with the lone goal scored on a penalty in the 83rd minute. But neither that, nor the fact it was followed by a 3-0 win over Fulham in the FA Cup over the weekend changes our read on this side, which is closer to relegation than their 8th place opponents Wednesday. 

Aston Villa was a solid 2-0 winner for me on Saturday as they took care of Newcastle United in a rescheduled affair. This is the most underrated side in the Premier League right now, at least in my eyes. The fact they are only 8th in the table is somewhat misleading when you consider they’ve played two fewer matches than seventh place West Ham United. COVID-19 put a halt to their campaign for nearly two weeks, but Aston Villa should be feeling good about itself right now considering their YTD goal differential (+13) places them right among the EPL’s best. I feel we are likely to see Villa make a charge up the table. 

Coming off the shocking win over Liverpool and then advancing to the 5th round of the FA Cup, Burnley might very well be overconfident heading into this fixture. They did play to a scoreless draw with AV back in December, but expect the visitors to score this time. Meanwhile, AV has conceded the third fewest times in the entire Premier League while Burnley’s 10 goals are tied for a league low. Europa League qualification is a real possibility for AV this season and I expect them to continue their chase by earning the full three points here. 10* Aston Villa

7* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): The price has come way down and that’s because Los Blancos (Real Madrid) just experienced a terrible week that saw them not only lose in the Super Cup semifinals (2-1 to Athletic Bilbao), but also get bounced from the Copa del Rey by third-tier side Alcoyano. Real is actually winless in their last three fixtures as it was a scoreless draw with bottom of the table Osasuna in their most recent La Liga fixture. But let’s be “real” here, it’s still an eight-match unbeaten run for Real Madrid in La Liga action and they are second in the table with 37 points. I don’t think they have anything to worry about, at least this week. 

Alaves is a side I recently faded (successfully) as they went down 2-1 at the hands of Sevilla midweek. It was a game effort from El Glorioso, but let’s not forget about some of the previous failures I discussed in the analysis for that last match. Alaves was beaten 5-0 by Segunda Division side Almeria in their own unceremonious exit from the Copa del Rey, plus they are now winless in the last seven La Liga fixtures, a stretch which has seen them lose to two of this season’s three promoted sides. They recently sacked their manager as well. 

Alaves is now just one point clear of the relegation zone and making matters worse is the fact that 18th place Elche has two games in hand. As desperate as El Glorioso may be right now, this is not the spot for a turnaround. Coming off the two losses last week, Real Madrid should take no mercy on their opponents here and won’t be taking Alaves lightly considering they lost the reverse fixture, 2-1 back on November 28th. That was the last time Alaves won a La Liga match. 7* Real Madrid

7* Aston Villa (3:00 ET): Aston Villa’s disappointing 2-0 loss to Man City on Wednesday leaves them buried down in 11th place in the table. But despite that midweek setback, I actually think there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about this Premier League side. Because they’ve been one of the clubs most impacted by COVID-19, AV has 2-3 matches in hand compared to the rest of the league, so there’s a chance to make up ground. They have a goal differential (+13) that’s comparable to the top teams in the table. Saturday’s rescheduled date with struggling Newcastle United is a golden opportunity for three points that they should cash in on at Villa Park.

Newcastle is not doing well right now as they are off a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal. I took the Over in that one (2.5) and got it despite the fact Newcastle was kept clean for the fifth time in their last six fixtures. While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Newcastle is sinking fast and in 15th place. Prior to the 3-0 loss Monday, they suffered a humiliating 1-0 defeat at the hands of last place Sheffield United. 

In what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Premier League seasons ever, don’t rule out Aston Villa’s European hopes. This will be their first time playing at home since Boxing Day, which is when they picked up their last Premier League win, so it should be an inspired effort on Saturday. That last home fixture was a decisive 3-0 win over Crystal Palace, a fairly comparable side to Newcastle. Newcastle has no goals in their last five away matches and just one in the last five EPL outings. 7* Aston Villa

7* Inter Milan (12:00 ET): Last week’s 2-0 victory over nine-time defending champion Juventus was probably Internazionale’s most impressive result this season. It ensured they kept some distance between themselves and third place in the Serie A table. Now a win Saturday can put them level with AC Milan for first place in the league. Considering Milan has a tough match on their hands this week (vs. Atalanta), this would seem to be a golden opportunity for Inter to pull even with 43 points. I expect them to get the full three here against struggling Udinese. 

Udinese was able to scratch out a point with a 1-1 draw vs. Atalanta last week, thanks to scoring a goal in the opening minute. But when you consider they conceded two-thirds of the possession time and outshot by a 3:1 margin, escaping with a point was probably fortunate. That leaves them in 15th place and only four points clear of the relegation zone. Recent form has been poor with Udinese winless in their last eight Serie A fixtures. They’ve lost four of them and only one time have they scored more than one goal.

This is not the matchup for Udinese to turn things around. Inter has beaten them in 9 of the last 11 fixtures and not even conceded once in any of the last five. Given Udinese’s recent scoring struggles, it’s tough to see them getting a goal here. Even in the last seven home fixtures with Inter, they’ve picked up just ONE point. Inter’s recent form is obviously excellent as they’ve been beaten just one time in their last 13 fixtures (all competitions). After a great week, now is not the time for a letdown. 7* Inter Milan

10* Atletico Madrid (3:30 ET): I am shocked to see the ML this low as Atletico Madrid may be the best team in all of Europe right now. The table leaders in La Liga have taken 41 points from their 16 matches thus far and what has to be “scary” for the rest of the field is the fact Atletico has played two (or in some instances THREE) fewer matches than everyone else. Having already won five straight in Spain’s top flight, they have a real shot at opening up a big lead by the halfway point of the season. I expect them to continue rolling on Thursday. 

It’s not as if today’s opponent (Eibar) is anything special. This side is only two points clear of the relegation zone and they have taken some embarrassing defeats recently, namely a 3-1 exit from the Copa del Rey over the weekend at the hands of Navalcarnero, a lower-level side. It’s become almost comical how few goals Eibar has scored in La Liga play with only 15 to speak of in their 18 matches. This seems like an especially poor time to be taking on the table leaders, who have conceded only SIX times all season! 

Eibar has just one win in its last six La Liga matches, that coming nearly three weeks ago against Granada. The fact they conceded eight goals in the three matches since is a troubling sign, especially when you consider two of the sides they faced are from a lower division. While it’s now been more than a month (five fixtures) since Atletico scored more than two goals in a match, Eibar’s recent form suggests that streak could be broken here. I see no reason why Atletico shouldn’t roll on Thursday as they look to continue to set the pace in La Liga. 10* Atletico Madrid

6* Villareal (3:30 ET): As I mentioned in yday’s La Liga analysis, there’s a real “dividing line” between the top six in the table and everyone else. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as any great shock that it’s the same top six that finished at the top of the table last season, albeit the order is currently different. Villareal is currently 4th, one spot higher than LY’s finish and has the second fewest number of losses in all of La Liga currently w/ only 2. Only table leaders Atletico Madrid have tasted defeat fewer times.

Granada is 7th again (where they finished LY), but there are some troubling signs for this side, namely a -8 YTD goal differential. That has them in line with some of the teams towards the bottom of the table and the biggest issue of all is they’ve conceded more times (29) than anyone else here in La Liga.  Granada’s possession numbers weren’t great last season, so a tumble down the table is something I’d anticipated. While that really hasn’t happened as of yet, everything is pointing to the fact it likely WILL happen.

Villareal has now won four straight across all competitions following a 1-0 victory over Tenerife in Copa del Rey action this past weekend. The Yellow Submarine has lost just ONCE in their last 24 across all competitions and they are unbeaten at home this season. Granada was also successful in the Copa del Rey last time out and before that they defeated 19th place Osasuna 2-0. But their away form hasn’t been good as they’ve won only two of eight on the La Liga road this season, scoring a league-low five times in that run. This would appear to be an even bigger mismatch than the existing odds say it is. 6* Villareal.

10* Stuttgart (2:30 ET): This is a matchup of the two promoted sides for this Bundesliga season, Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld. One is certainly faring better than the other in the German top flight as Stuttgart is currently 10th in the table, but is actually performing even better than that when you consider they have the 6th best goal differential (+8) in the league. Meanwhile, Bielefeld is really struggling as they are down in 15th, dangerously close to the relegation zone. They’ve scored only 10 goals, easily the fewest in the entire Bundesliga through 16 weeks. Stuttgart has TRIPLED the number. 

This marks the second time in three weeks I’m taking Stuttgart. They turned in an excellent performance the last time, destroying Augsburg by a score of 4-1. Last week was a 2-2 draw with Gladbach, but there’s no shame there. No side in the entire Bundesliga has been more successful on the road this season than Stuttgart, who has picked up 17 points from their eight matches on the road. That they’ve only won one time in their last five Bundesliga matches is of no concern as you need to look at the caliber of the competition they’ve been facing. This will be their first crack at a side residing at the bottom of the table since a 2-1 win over Werder Bremen on December 6th.

Things have been getting a bit better for Arminia Bielefeld of late as they’ve picked up four points from their previous two matches, a 1-0 win over Hertha Berlin and a scoreless draw with Hoffenheim. But in addition to the lack of goal scoring (just two in the last six matches!), Bielefeld’s other issue here is a step up in class. Other than a 1-0 loss to Gladbach, they’ve faced nothing but teams from the bottom half of the table over the past two months. 10* Stuttgart

10* Sevilla (3:30 ET): There is a clear dividing line between the top six and everybody else in La Liga this season. Sevilla is a side that finds itself in the former group, but in sixth place. A win on Tuesday could move them into fourth however and that’s obviously a spot the reigning Europa League Champs would love to be in. The opponent here is an Alaves side that’s in very poor form right now. There’s no sugarcoating what was an awful 5-0 loss to Segunda Division side Almeria over the weekend in the Copa del Rey. Given that and other recent results, I don’t see how they have a chance against one of the best sides in the Spanish top flight. 

Sevilla was successful in their Copa del Rey fixture over the weekend, 1-0 over Leganes, with the lone goal coming in the 96th minute. That had to be a pleasant sight for Las Palanganas after they were beaten 2-0 by table leaders Atletico Madrid in their last La Liga fixture. Of course, there’s no shame in losing to that side as Atletico Madrid very much has a legit claim to being the best team in all of Europe right now. Before that loss, Sevilla had been unbeaten in nine straight across all competitions.

Form couldn’t be more different for Alaves right now as they’ve sacked their manager and are winless in their last six La Liga fixtures. That leaves them 16th in the table and just two points above the dreaded relegation zone. Something to keep in mind is that Alaves hasn’t exactly been taking on La Liga’s best during their recent swoon. They’ve lost against two of this season’s promoted sides - Huesca and Cadiz - the former being the last place team in the league. In the midst of this managerial change, I don’t see how El Glorioso keeps pace here. 10* Sevilla 

7* West Ham (1:00 ET): West Ham will look to continue its recent strong form on Tuesday when they host a West Brom side that’s off a rare win. The Hammers have won three in a row across all competitions and are unbeaten in the last four EPL fixtures. They’ve yet to concede a single goal in 2021, keeping four consecutive clean sheets, so this matchup against the side that’s conceded more than anybody this season seems rather ideal. Anything less than the full three points here would be a major disappointment for WHU.

It was a bit of a shocker to see West Brom emerge victorious over the Wolves, 3-2, on Saturday. It was their first win in six tries under new manager Sam Allardyce and just their second overall this season. They remain firmly entrenched in the relegation zone with just 11 points from their 18 matches, leaving them 19th in the table, ahead of only Sheffield United. They are five points back of 17th place, which is where they need to be to avoid relegation. They’ve conceded 41 goals thus far, which is seven more than anybody else and as a result, West Brom’s -27 YTD goal differential is the EPL’s worst. 

So like I said earlier, there’s no reason that West Ham shouldn’t get the full three (points) here. They’ve suffered only one defeat in their L10 home matches and West Brom is winless in their previous nine matches here at London Stadium. After three straight victories by a score of 1-0, look for the Hammers to find the back of the net multiple times in this one against the leakiest defense in the EPL. Head to head results w/ West Brom aren’t as good as you might think, but that should only serve to have WHU extra motivated as they look to chase down a European qualifying spot. 7* West Ham

10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal (3:00 ET): After winning four in a row across all competitions, Arsenal had to settle for a scoreless draw with Crystal Palace on Thursday, leaving the Gunners 11th in the Premier League table. On the bright side, it was a fourth consecutive clean sheet, a pretty remarkable run for a side that was struggling in the early part of the campaign. While it’s still going to take a lot to catch those at the top of the table, a full three points should be expected here as they face a Newcastle United club they recently down in FA Cup action. 

Newcastle suffered a humiliating defeat its last time out, 1-0 against previously winless Sheffield United. That loss came on the back of the 2-0 loss to Arsenal in the FA Cup. Not only are they winless in their last six across all competitions, Newcastle has been kept clean in four of their last five matches. This has prompted manager Steve Bruce to consider a change in strategy and you may now see only four back on defense, rather than five.

While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Newcastle sits 15th in the table. I expect them to be a lot more aggressive here. The aggressive nature is still unlikely to translate into victory, but I expect the Magpies to at least get on the scoresheet. The flip side of the aggressive approach is that they may open themselves up for more Arsenal scoring. The Gunners have won five straight over the Magpies, keeping them clean in the last four. That’s a streak I can’t see continuing. A 2-1 Arsenal win is the most likely outcome here and I’ll take the Over. 10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal

8* AC Milan (2:45 ET): This ML somewhat reminds me of yday’s play on Tottenham. It’s just too low for the Serie A table leaders AC Milan, who I can’t see losing or even settling for a draw against a Cagliari side that is in terrible form right now. The Rossoneri currently have 40 points, which has them level with rival Internazionale atop the standings for the time being. They’ve been beaten just one time this season and that was by 9-time defending champ Juventus two weeks ago. Getting the full three points here will be a priority.

Cagliari can only think about avoiding relegation at this point. They are on a 10-match winless streak across all competitions and have lost four straight here in Serie A, the side’s longest losing streak since 2013. This precipitous slide has them down in 17th, only one point clear of the relegation zone. Midweek saw them get eliminated from the Coppa Italia as they were soundly beaten by Atalanta 3-1. This particular fixture has been quite unkind to Cagliari as they’ve won only one of their past 16 home matches against AC Milan, losing nine.

Meanwhile, Milan is through to the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia by virtue of a win over Torino (on penalty kicks) last Tuesday. That took place two days before Cagliari’s exit from the tournament, so the favorite has the additional bonus of two extra days off between matches. Plus Zlatan Ibrahimovic is back in the starting lineup. He’s scored in each of his last six league matches vs. Cagliari, so look for a little added “offensive punch” from the visitors, who happen to have also kept a clean sheet against three of their previous four opponents across all competitions. 8* AC Milan

10* Tottenham Hotspur (9:00 AM ET): Despite a six-match unbeaten streak (across all competitions) and the second best goal differential (+14) in the Premier League, the Spurs still sit in sixth place, six points adrift from table leaders Manchester United. But they will enter Sunday just two points back of fourth, meaning a win here would place them in Champions League qualifying position. With four of the top seven teams in the EPL facing off elsewhere this week, Tottenham MUST grab the full three points here. 

Sheffield United is simply trying to avoid relegation. Even after last week’s surprise win over Newcastle United, their first of the entire campaign, they face a tall order. Still sitting at the bottom of the table with only five points, Sheffield is six points back of the second to last place team (West Brom) and a whopping 11 points back of 17th place Burnley, whom they’d need to pass to avoid relegation. Beating Newcastle 1-0 was actually Sheffield’s second consecutive win as they were victorious in the FA Cup over Bristol Rovers last Saturday. 

But before these B2B victories, Sheffield had been winless over an incredible 22 consecutive matches, a streak which went all the way back to July! Their 17-match winless streak to open the Premier League season was the longest in history. I know that Tottenham has had a nasty habit of “turning victories into draws” (see Wolverhampton and Fulham), but Sheffield is just a dreadful side and there’s no excuse not to pick up the full three here. Sheffield has lost 15 of 18 domestically and tied for last with just nine goals scored all season. Tottenham has conceded the second fewest number of times (16). I foresee a motivated effort from the favorite, who has not beaten Sheffield in any of the L3 fixtures (1 L, 2D). 10* Tottenham Hotspur

8* Over Manchester United/Burnley (3:15 ET): Amidst much hype, Manchester United has surged to the top of the Premier League table. They are currently level at 33 points with Liverpool and enter Tuesday knowing that all it will take is a point (draw) to pull ahead of the reigning EPL champs (at least temporarily) before next week’s huge showdown in Anfield. Of course, Man U will want the full three (points) here at Burnley as they look to continue their spectacular form that has seen them win 8 of their last 10 Premier League matches. One would have to go all the way back to December of 2012 to find the last time Man U has been atop the table past matchweek 17. 

Burnley will be trying to play spoiler here. They too are in decent form, having won three of four in Premier League play. But those three wins have come against the Wolves, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United, all bottom of the table teams. The big issue this season for Burnley - and why they are still in 16th position - is that they have tallied only nine goals in 15 matches. That’s the second fewest in the EPL, only one ahead of relegation-bound Sheffield United. 

Though they were on the pitch Saturday in FA Cup action, Burnley is relatively fresh here as their last scheduled EPL encounter (Jan 3 vs. Fulham) was postponed (COVID). I do think we’re going to see them get on the scoresheet Tuesday. It’s almost been comical how low-scoring their matches have been thus far with just 29 total goals scored. The next fewest is Fulham with 36. Yes, some of it is due to Burnley having only played 15 matches, but they are long overdue for a “high-scoring affair''. United has scored 2+ goals in six of their last eight EPL matches, so they are the perfect “dance partner.” This one goes Over. 8* Over Manchester United/Burnley

10* Stuttgart (9:30 ET): These are two middle of the table teams. Whomever gets the three points will ensure they keep pace with the top half in the Bundesliga. I think that will be Stuttgart, who has the better YTD goal differential and a solid away form. They’ve won four of seven matches on the road this season, which is actually a better record than they sport at home. It feels like a solid buy low situation as Stuttgart has been higher in the table for much of this campaign in their first season back in the German top flight.

Augsburg has won two of three in the Bundesliga to climb to 10th place and safely away from relegation. They won 1-0 last Saturday against FC Koln, but it wasn’t a very impressive performance and hardly inspires confidence moving forward. Looking back through recent results, Augsburg has done quite well against bottom of the table teams and not so hot against everyone else. Since the start of October, they’ve won only three times and those were all against sides currently in the bottom four.

Stuttgart should feel no shame in losing 1-0 to RB Leipzig last week, but it was their second straight defeat by that score following a three-match unbeaten run at the start of December. During that three-match unbeaten run, they’d found the back of the net nine times including a very impressive 5-1 victory over Dortmund. As alluded to briefly at the outset, they have a +5 goal differential on the year (Augsburg is -3). They have scored 10 more goals than Augsburg this season, so I see an offensive breakout on Sunday. 10* Stuttgart

8* Lazio (9:00 ET): Parma is struggling as much as any side in Europe right now and that poor form makes them a very logical fade in this price range. Currently in the relegation zone, the Emilians have dropped four straight and are winless over their last seven fixtures. They’ve scored the fewest number of goals (13) in all of Serie A and with just four total SHOTS on goal in their L2 matches, they are straight up inept on the offensive side of things. The poor form led to a managerial change, but for all the reasons listed above, Roberto D’Aversa faces a real tall order in his second go-around with the club.

After qualifying for the knockout stage of the Champions League (1st time in two decades), Lazio had reason to celebrate. But they’ve been the definition of mediocre on the domestic front, both scoring and conceding 25 goals this Serie A campaign. I’m not totally shocked as regression was expected after the top four finish last season. Currently 8th, they cannot afford to lose any more ground to the top teams in the table. A midweek win over Fiorentina (2-1) was much needed and this certainly looks like another easy three points.

Lazio has had some issues beating bottom of the table teams before. Settling for draws against the likes of Genoa and Benevento cost them much needed points, so you can bet they can smell “blood in the water” here. They have owned Parma in the past, losing only once in their last 11 visits to Tardini and the last five fixtures have brought five wins, four via clean sheet. I see no reason to expect Parma to get on the scoresheet here as they’ve failed to notch a goal in five of their last seven. They are off B2B 3-0 losses and further complicating matters is the number of key absences their new manager has to deal with. Basically, all we need is Lazio to score. 8* Lazio

6* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): The Atalanta we got on Sunday is the Atalanta I hope we get here. La Dea ROLLED to a dominating 5-1 win over Sassuolo when we last took them and now - following another convincing win (3-0 over Parma) mid-week - they have moved up to a tie for 6th place, just two points back of where they need to be for Champions League qualifying. It’s getting crowded at the top of the Serie A table with seven sides seemingly poised to make a run for the top four. So as I said in the analysis last week, Atalanta needs to focus on consistency, something we’re seeing more and more of lately from one of Europe’s most exciting sides.

Benevento, like Sassuolo, is an overachieving opponent for La Dea. With three wins in the last four matches and just one defeat (to AC Milan) in the last five, Benevento is now in 10th place, safely free from the relegation zone where most expected this recently promoted side to end up. Last year’s Serie B champs are fresh off a 2-1 win against Cagliari mid-week. But something that becomes apparent when looking at recent results is Benevento has really been beating up on the lesser sides in the table. Cagliari, Udinese and Genoa are the three clubs they’ve beaten recently, all of which are no higher than 13th in the table.

Even before winning their previous two fixtures by a combined score of 8-1, there were signs of the Atalanta “of old.” They’d raced out to a 2-0 first half lead against Bologna three weeks ago. While they blew that lead and had to settle for a draw, the fact remains La Dea is unbeaten (5 wins, 3 draws) in its last eight matches (across all competitions) and seems refreshed since Champions League play paused. Benevento still has a -7 YTD goal differential and I’d be shocked if they manage to keep up with their high-scoring opponents, who are #2 in goals scored in all of Serie A. Benevento is only 15th having scored roughly half as many times this campaign. 6* Atalanta

8* Bayern Munich (2:30 ET): Getting the consensus best team in Europe at this price isn’t a luxury afforded very often. So I’ll gladly grab Bayern Munich here as they look to remain atop the Bundesliga table with a visit to Borussia Park. That the visitors are in their current position is no shock at all. They have the best goal differential in the league (+23) and have been beaten only one time. That they have done so despite being down in eight consecutive matches is pretty remarkable. A shocking 0-2 halftime deficit against Mainz last week quickly turning into a 5-2 win was basically “business usual.’” 

Last month, Borussia Monchengladbach advanced to the knockout stage of the Champions League for the first time in their history. They may want to relish it, because it’s looking like they may not have a chance to get back there next season. Currently sitting 7th in the Bundesliga table, M’gladbach trails 4th place Dortmund by four points, so not even a shocking win here would propel them into the top four. A less than stellar 1-0 victory over bottom feeder Arminia Bielefeld last week tells me they simply don’t have the firepower necessary to compete here. 

Bayern Munich, as you’d expect, has way more goals scored than any other Bundesliga side. They’ve found the back of the net 44 times, which is 15 more than anybody else. That gap is the same as the gap between the 2nd highest scoring team (Leverkusen) and the 4th LOWEST scoring side. Robert Lewandowski’s 19 goals (in just 13 matches!) are more than six clubs have all year! Gladbach has more draws (6) than wins (5) thus far. Unlike last week, we are going to get a fully focused Bayern Munich and that spells D-O-O-M for the opposition. 8* Bayern Munich

9* Barcelona (3:00 ET): Despite all the drama, Barcelona has a chance to move into third place in the La Liga table with a win on Wednesday. I’ll grab them at what appears to be an extraordinarily cheap price vs Athletic Bilbao, who is tied for the second most losses of any side in the league. While the narrative is that Barca is “underperforming,” that’s not really the case when you consider they have the second best goal differential in the Spanish top flight, despite playing fewer matches than three of the four sides currently above them. 

It’s a six-match unbeaten run for Barcelona in La Liga as they’ve won four and drawn two during that time. They are coming off a 1-0 win over bottom-feeder Huesca last week. Considering where Huesca currently sits in the table (last), no one is going to call that an “impressive” win, but the Catalans will gladly take it. There was a lot of hand-wringing by the media over the failure to increase the early 1-0 lead, but whatever. Lionel Messi is still here (for now) and this is a match the favorites should easily win. 

Barca has scored 30 goals this campaign, tied for the most in La Liga despite that most other sides have played at least one more match. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Athletic Bilbao has scored only 19 goals. They too were 1-0 winners their last time out (over Elche) to maintain their middle of the table status. Again, that status is quite striking considering they’ve lost eight times already. This will be the first match since a managerial change as Marcelino tries to right the ship, but it’s a tall order trying to come in and beat the titans of this league your first time out. 9* Barcelona

10* Over Granada/Eibar (12:30 ET): Eibar’s 16 matches have been almost comically low-scoring with just 28 combined goals scored. The 12 they’ve scored on their own is tied for the fewest in all of La Liga while the 16 conceded ranks sixth, behind only the top clubs. But here comes Granada to “fix” things. Despite sitting a somewhat surprising 7th in the table, Granada has conceded 23 times, among the very most in the Spanish top flight. Only four sides - including the bottom three - have conceded more goals this season. 

Yet Granada comes in flashing strong form of late. They’ve won four of their last five across all competitions and have lost just once in the last seven, a 2-0 reverse fixture vs. Real Madrid. Outside of La Liga, they’ve progressed to the knockout stage of the Europa League where they’ll next be taking on Napoli. Here on the domestic front, they are coming off a 2-1 win over Valencia last week. A good number of players will be absent for this clash, a tough break considering Granada is a win away from pulling level with 4th place Sevilla. 

This is a very low total, one that caught my eye. I know what we’ve seen from Eibar thus far, but getting three combined goals doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much here. Eibar drew Barcelona 1-1 its last time out, a result they’ll gladly take considering they have just three wins this campaign. They are currently just one point clear of the relegation zone entering Sunday. Expect an inspired effort at home where they notch at least a goal. Incredibly, Eibar has scored more than 1 goal only once in their L11 La Liga matches, but it’s also tough to ignore the fact they’d conceded five times in two matches before drawing Barca. Each of the last five head to head matches between these two sides have produced at least three total goals. 10* Over Granada/Eibar

7* Atalanta (9:00 ET): All across Europe, we’re starting to see some separation in the various tables and Serie A is no different. I think it’s fair to say we’ve got a solid seven sides that should compete for the four Champions League spots, two of them playing right here. Sassuolo has definitely been an overachiever thus far as they sit 4th, right ahead of both Napoli and Juventus, their best ever standing through match week 14. Coming into the season, Atalanta was one of two clubs I thought could unseat Juventus (9-time Serie A champs), but they are 7th and desperate for three points here after letting one slip away before the Holiday break. 

Atalanta wasted no time in taking a 2-0 lead over Bologna their last time on the pitch, but then turned into a disappointing 2-2 draw. That leaves them four points behind this week’s opponent for the 4th position. Generally known as one of the more exciting sides in Serie A, La Dea needs to be more consistent and that starts with taking all three points at home this week. They were unbeaten across all six fixtures in December, but three of those were draws. They have not won B2B matches on the domestic front since a three-match run in late September/early October.

However, after letting one slip away their last time out, expect a very focused effort from Atalanta here. Sassuolo is a side I expect to see start tumbling down the table. Prior to defeating Sampdoria last time out, there had been some signs of slippage with just one win in the previous five matches and they’d failed to score more than one goal in any of the five outings. The lack of scoring will be a problem against Atalanta, one of the highest scoring sides in the league. Also, the last five fixtures between these two have seen Atalanta go 5-0 with an incredible 20 goals scored and only five conceded. 7* Atalanta

10* Sevilla (10:15 ET): Looking at the current state of the La Liga table, it would appear as if there are only six sides with a realistic shot at finishing in the top four. Reigning Europa League Champions Sevilla are one of them and you can bet Los Nervionenses would much prefer to be back in the Champions League next season (where they are currently in the Rd of 16 TY). Having moved up to 4th on the back of a four-match unbeaten run in the Spanish top flight, they are in position to do so and a win Saturday against rival Real Betis would have them level with surprising Real Sociedad when the day is done. 

How Real Betis has managed to remain a respectable 10th in the La Liga table is one of the great mysteries of European soccer this campaign. Los Verdiblancos have the most losses in the league (9) and a goal differential (-11) that’s right on par with those sides currently in the relegation zone. Based on those numbers alone, I expect Betis to take a tumble down the table here in 2021. Right now, they are one of the worst-hit teams with injuries in all of La Liga. Last time out, they fell 4-3 to Levante, a match in which they fell behind 4-1 before making things somewhat interesting over the last 12 minutes.

No La Liga side has conceded more goals this campaign than Betis’ 30. That’s a problem in this fixture as Sevilla has conceded only 10 times, which is the second lowest number in the league, behind only the amazing table leaders Atletico Madrid. Since losing three in a row at the end of October, Sevilla has gone 10-1-2 across all competitions with the only loss on the domestic front coming by a 1-0 score against Real Madrid. This is a truly incredible value on the side that’s in much better form of late. 10* Sevilla

8* Manchester United (3:00 ET): Manchester United has charged up the Premier League table and while they were unable to extend a 10-game win streak on the road Saturday, a 2-2 draw with Leicester City was enough to keep the Red Devils in the coveted 4th position for the time being. It's a match that Man U probably should have won considering it was an “own goal” that tied things up in the 85th minute. Nevertheless, it's still eight straight EPL matches without a defeat for Man U heading into Tuesday’s clash with Wolverhampton.

The Wolves also walked away with a draw from their last encounter, 1-1 against Tottenham. They’ll gladly take the point as they were expected to lose to the Hotspurs, but they are still sitting in 11th place in the table, six points behind Man U. I feel there is a stark divide developing between the top and bottom halves of the EPL table and right now the Wolves are on the wrong side of that ledger. They’ve won just two of six and have a negative goal differential (-5) on the year. (Man U is +7).

The Red Devils also have the third fewest number of defeats in the English top flight so far (3), trailing only first place Liverpool as well as Man City. They are #2 in goals scored with 30, again trailing only Liverpool. That’s a problem for the Wolves, who have scored only half that number (15) in their 15 matches. Only the four sides battling relegation - Burnley, West Brom, Fulham and Sheffield United - have scored less. Throw in that Manchester United got to enjoy one extra day off between matches (Wolves just played Sunday!) and it should be three points for the home side at Old Trafford on Tuesday. 8* Manchester United

10* Over Chelsea/Arsenal (12:30 ET): Chelsea heads into matchweek 15 knowing that three points could get them right back in the top four of the Premier League table. The Blues actually own the EPL’s second best goal differential this season (+15) and I don’t think there’s much argument that they have been one of the better clubs. Monday’s convincing 3-0 win over West Ham put to rest a two-game losing streak and I don’t think they’re going to have much difficulty scoring here against a struggling Arsenal side. 

Having collected just 14 points from their 14 matches, Arsenal is off to its worst Premier League start in 46 years. They currently sit 15th in the table and are only four points clear of the relegation zone. Their last win came all the way back on November 1st and since then it’s been five losses and two draws on the domestic front. Not even “home cooking” has done them much good as they’ve collected just seven points from seven matches here at Emirates Stadium, the fifth worst home record of any Premier League side. 

On average, Arsenal’s matches have been the lowest-scoring in the EPL this season with just 30 combined goals scored. Only Burnley and hideous Sheffield United have notched a fewer number of goals than the Gunners’ 12. But here comes Chelsea to save the day as the Blues are #2 in the league in scoring (29 goals), trailing only Liverpool. Arsenal did just concede four times to Man City Tuesday as they exited the EFL Cup, so maybe that’s a sign of things to come. Each of the last four fixtures between these two sides have produced at least three goals. Two Chelsea defenders are doubtful. 10* Over Chelsea/Arsenal

10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): I’ll start this Serie A writeup with my semi-regular reminder that this was to be the season where Juventus’ reign of dominance (nine straight league titles) came to an end. The two sides most believed could unseat them were Inter and Atalanta. Inter’s prospects are looking quite good right about now as they stormed to second place in the table, one point behind current pace setters AC Milan. As for Atalanta, they’ve seemingly been “stuck in neutral” most of this campaign and currently sit only 7th. But a thrilling come from behind win against Roma over the weekend seems to have reinvigorated one of European football’s most “exciting” sides.

The 4-1 win over Roma on Sunday harkened back to the form of last season when Atalanta led all of Serie A (by a lot) with 98 goals scored. All four goals on Sunday came in the second half. Having successfully passed through to the Round of 16 in the Champions League, Atalanta can now put more focus on domestic success. Despite the up and down start, they are only three points back of Roma for the coveted 4th spot in the table. They are again among the league leaders in goals scored and are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions. I envision a strong 2021 for the Nerazzurri.

As for Bologna, things aren’t so hot right now. They’ve picked up just two points from the last four Serie A matches and now sit 14th in the table. Things could actually be worse when you consider they have the 4th most losses (7) in the entire league. It wasn’t that long ago they conceded five times in one half to Roma. Given what Atalanta has proven to be capable of recently - beating Liverpool at Anfield, Ajax in Amsterdam and then Roma last week - it should be a bevy of goals this week for the visitors. 10* Atalanta

10* Over Burnley/Aston Villa (1:00 ET): While I actually believe Aston Villa is a bit undervalued here, I prefer the Over. Let’s focus on Burnley, a side that figures to spend much of this campaign fighting off relegation. Their current position in the table is third from the bottom (18th), which would mean relegation. Make no mistake about it. Despite winning last week (1-0 against Arsenal), Burnley is very much one of the EPL’s weakest sides this season. I’m surprised they’ve only been beaten once in their last five tries.

Another interesting thing about Burnley is that their matches have produced the fewest total number of goals in the Premier League. There have been just 24 total goals scored. Some of that is the fact they’ve played only 11 times. They’ve only scored only six goals though. But what we can expect today is for them to concede multiple times. Keep in mind that while there are many sides in the EPL than have conceded more goals than Burnley this season, most of them have played two more matches.

Aston Villa seemed to be in downturn, but then they defeated the rival Wolves last week, 1-0. The West Midlands side had previously lost four of five. A concern for them is they’ve conceded a total of nine times in their last three at home. That suggests there will be some scoring opportunities for Burnley here. But of course Aston Villa will score plenty as well. Despite having played the fewest number of matches (10) in the EPL, they are actually tied for 8th in goals scored. They are averaging 2.1 per match. 10* Over Burnley/Aston Villa

8* Barcelona (3:00 ET): This is what I call a “statement” game for Barcelona, who we all know is a far better side than their current 10th place standing in the La Liga table. Not only is that statement backed up by reputation, but also the fact Barca has a +10 goal differential that’s third best in the league this season and right on par with the table leaders. I think we all feel that a move up the table is a formality and the three points here would be huge as they’d come at the expense of 1st place Real Sociedad. 

Before the season got underway, I didn’t see many prognosticators saying Real Sociedad would be finishing in the top four of the La Liga table. But along with Atletico Madrid, they’ve been one of the two “best” sides thus far. However, a couple things stand out when analyzing their season to date. One is that they have yet to beat what I’d call a “top side.” They’ve really been beating up on some of La Liga’s weaker sides to this point.  Another thing is that they have drawn six straight times across all competitions. So it looks as if that fast start to the campaign is hanging on by a bit of a thread. 

It wasn’t pretty, but Barca gladly accepted the 1-0 victory over Levante last week where Lionel Messi scored the lone goal. Especially after taking that humiliating 3-0 loss from Juventus in the UCL and being shocked here by Cadiz 2-1 two weeks ago. But before that, we saw what this decorated side is capable of as they outscored the competition 10-0 over the previous three fixtures. My view is that Barca is going to treat this fixture very seriously and walk away with the three points. 8* Barcelona

8* Over Sampdoria/Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): Last we checked in with Hellas Verona, I was speaking about just how low scoring their fixtures had been in this Serie A campaign. It was last month when I played them Over the total against Benevento, a struggling side which they took advantage of en route to a 3-1 victory. Such high-scoring fixtures, win or lose, continue to be rare for this side which is now 7th in the table but closing in on the top four. Their nine goals conceded are a Serie A low this campaign. 

With only nine goals conceded and 15 scored, Hellas Verona fixtures almost seem TOO low-scoring. I said this in the analysis for my previous Over bet and will reiterate it again now that I’m playing that way again. Like the previous Over bet, I Gialloblu are matched up with a side they should be able to score on multiple times. Sampdoria hasn’t kept a clean sheet since October and they’ve conceded exactly two goals in each of their last five Serie A matches. On the bright side, they’ve also scored at least one of their own in each of those five matches. 

But Sampdoria’s recent form isn’t good as they’ve lost four of six in the Serie A. Last time it was a 2-1 away defeat to Napoli, their sixth overall defeat this campaign. This is going to be a struggle against a side in very good form as Hellas Verona has lost just twice in 11 matches and has taken 8 of a possible 12 points against league heavyweights Juventus, AC Milan, Atalanta and Lazio. Adding to the “impressiveness” is that all four of those matches were away. I look for Verona to “pile it on here” and send this one Over. 8* Over Sampdoria/Hellas Verona

8* RB Leipzig (2:30 ET): The margin for error keeps getting thinner and thinner atop the Bundesliga table. So RB Leipzig could ill afford anything but the three points Wednesday as they travel to face struggling Hoffenheim. Leipzig currently sits in a second place tie with Bayern Munich entering Match Week 12. Unbeaten Leverkusen sits one point in front. So a win here and there’s a chance Leipzig could be out in front. What they must guard against is complacency seeing as Dortmund and Wolfsburg are both hot on their heels.

Hoffenheim is not having anywhere near the success Leipzig is, at least domestically. While they just finished first in their Europa League group for the first time in club history, the Bundesliga has been far less kind to Hoffenheim. They’ve won just once in their last nine domestic affairs and most recently were on the wrong side of a 4-1 beating from Bayern Munich. Adding insult to injury, both Florian Grillitsch and Stefan Posch were sent off in the defeat, so the club will be short-handed Wednesday.

While Leipzig has just one away victory this season in the Bundesliga, this certainly appears to be an easy three points based on the recent form of both sides. Leipzig was quite satisfied with their 3-3 draw against Bayern two weeks ago and has since beaten Manchester United in the UCL and Werder Bremen (2-0) here in the Bundesliga. Leipzig is unbeaten in the last five fixtures with Hoffenheim, winning four of them. Key is the fact they’ve conceded only nine times this campaign while Hoffenheim has conceded 21 times, among the most in the league. 8* RB Leipzig

8* Over Chelsea/Wolves (1:00 ET): We’ve got two sides that were each kept clean in their respective last matches. Wolverhampton went down 1-0 to rival Aston Villa while Chelsea fell 2-0 to Everton. That loss for Chelsea snapped a 17-game unbeaten run across all competitions, but fans of the Blues need not be concerned as their club should still be considered one of the top teams in the Premier League this season. While I do expect them to win Tuesday, I think an even better (and safer) play is on the Over. 

Wolverhampton has managed only 11 goals in 12 matches as they’ve been shut out twice in a row. Only the teams fighting off relegation have scored fewer times this season. The Wolves are now stuck down in 13th in the table. But keeping them alive is the fact they’ve conceded just 16 times. Only three EPL teams (Arsenal, Burnley and last place Sheffield United) have had fewer total goals scored in their matches this campaign. For Wolverhampton, I have the feeling that number is going to rise. I absolutely see them getting on the scoresheet today.

Chelsea slipped to 5th with the loss last week, but the good news is that if they earn the three here, then they move into a first place tie with Tottenham and Liverpool. They’ve got only two losses this season, tied for the second fewest. They certainly can be relied upon for a goal or two here as they’ve scored the second most times in the EPL with 25 goals. In this fixture last season, it was 5-2 Chelsea. 8* Over Chelsea/Wolves

10* Celta de Vigo (3:00 ET): Looking across most of the “big” European Leagues, we’re starting to see the “contenders” separate themselves from the “pretenders.” But not in La Liga where there are a number of teams currently in the top half of the table that don’t seem likely to stay there. One such club is Cadiz, who somehow managed to pull off a 2-1 win against Barcelona last weekend despite being massive underdogs. While their away form has been quite good thus far, Cadiz has scored only 11 goals while conceding 13 this term and I don’t think they are to be trusted long-term.

Oddsmakers are making a bit of a “statement” with Celta de Vigo being ML favorites here. The Sky Blues are just 17th in the table and fighting relegation. They’ve finished 17th each of the last two seasons as well, barely escaping embarrassment. But they come into Monday riding a two-game win streak, having beaten Granada and Athletic Bilbao by scores of 3-1 and 2-0. It’s worth noting Granada is currently 7th in the table, just one spot below Cadiz.

Looking at Cadiz’s surprising early season success, I think it’s important to remember this is a recently promoted side, one that was actually runners-up in the Segunda Division last year. Celta de Vigo has scored more goals this campaign than has Cadiz. Seven of Celta’s 13 goals have come since the last International Break. Their recent form is encouraging and I’m simply not a believer in Cadiz. I look forward to attacking the La Liga card in the days that follow, trying to “pick off” some of these overrated sides. 10* Celta de Vigo

10* Eintracht Frankfurt (2:30 ET): Please note that this is a goal line selection where I’m taking Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25. Obviously, a win is what we’re looking for here. But by betting this way, we win even if the match is a draw. Given these two Bundesliga sides have drawn in 13 of their combined 20 league matches thus far, this seems like a savvy bet.

The Bundesliga is shaping up to be an interesting league this season. You’ve got the three expected teams at the top - Bayern, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund - but also two unbeaten clubs, Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg.  But Die Wolf still only sits 5th in the table because they’ve won just 4 of their 10 matches. They’ve played to a draw in the other six. I thought they were a bit lucky to remain unbeaten on the campaign as last week’s saw them barely escape with the 2-2 draw against FC Koln. Twice they were down a goal. Eventually this club is going to lose. Why not today?

Eintracht Frankfurt is a side I was hoping to see improve this year and move up the table. Maybe that still happens? They are currently 9th in the table and are actually on a five-match unbeaten streak. Now all five of those matches did result in a draw. The latest was last week vs. BVB 1-1. Frankfurt’s last Bundesliga win was actually back on October 3rd vs. Hoffenheim. But they’ve only been beaten once the entire campaign and that was by Bayern Munich. Take that fixture away and Frankfurt has a positive goal differential on the year. They are desperate for the three points here. Don’t be surprised if they get them.  10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25

8* Under Borussia Monchengladbach/Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Group B is a lot more wide open heading into the final matchday of the Group Stage, at least compared with most other Groups. Borussia Monchengladbach currently is on top with 8 points as they are trying to become the 4th German Bundesliga side to make it through to the Round of 16. Real Madrid is just one point behind and could also see its way to the knockout stage, depending on what happens here and in the Inter-Shakhtar Donetsk match. 

M’gladbach is clearly in the best position, knowing that all it needs here is a draw to advance. So far, their group battles have been the highest scoring of the entire Champions League (even more than Bayern Munich!) with a total of 23 goals scored in five matches. They’ve scored 16 times themselves while conceding seven. Given the stakes involved Wednesday, I expect a conservative approach from the German side. The bevy of high-scoring results we’ve seen from them recently seems like an anomaly.

As for Real Madrid, this is pretty much do or die for the 13-time European champs. A win here would send them to the knockout stage. Anything but a win and it’s likely off to the Europa League for them. Two losses to Shakhtar Donetsk, including 2-0 last week, have been stunning results for Los Blancos. It should be noted that they did deliver a “clean sheet” victory against Sevilla (1-0) over the weekend on the domestic end. While the reverse fixture between these two ended in a 2-2 draw, note Real scored both of its goals late (87th minute and in stoppage time). Four of Real’s last five matches - across all competitions - have seen two or fewer goals scored. The one that didn’t had just three total goals scored. 8* Under Borussia Monchengladbach/Real Madrid

10* Over Sevilla/Rennes (3:00 ET): As I predicted weeks ago, Sevilla has climbed up the La Liga table. They now sit a more respectable 6th in the Spanish top flight and I expect them to continue battling for a top four spot domestically. That said, they did just lose 1-0 to Real Madrid over the weekend. They were also kept clean in their last UCL fixture, a much uglier defeat, as they fell 4-0 to Chelsea. That said, I don’t think there’s a ton to worry about here as Sevilla has already booked its ticket to the knockout stage.

Rennes’ recent form has been nothing short of terrible as they are plummeting down the Ligue 1 table. They once sat at the top, but are now 9th as they’ve managed just ONE win - 2-1 against Brest - across all competitions since the beginning of October. Their fate here in the Champions League has already been settled as they will finish at the bottom of Group E. Thus far they’ve taken just one point from five matches while scoring only two goals, the fewest of any Champions League side thus campaign.

While the reverse fixture was 1-0 (in favor of Sevilla) and both sides have been blanked in their last two matches across all competitions, I feel this situation is ripe to produce an Over on Tuesday. Rennes has conceded a total of 10 times five UCL matches while Sevilla conceded four times in its ugly defeat at the hands of Chelsea last week. With no real stakes for either side, expect a wide open match here in France. Both clubs have been dealing with injured goaltenders. 10* Over Sevilla/Rennes

10* AS Roma (9:00 AM ET): For the second week in a row, I’ll be fading a Sassuolo side that surprisingly found its way near the top of the table in Serie A. But last week saw them suffer their first defeat of the season and it came in emphatic fashion at the hands of Internazionale, 3-0. Their opponents for this week are also off a humbling defeat, 4-0 to Napoli, but quickly bounced back with a 3-1 showing in the Europa League on Thursday. (They lead their Group in that competition). AS Roma remains a top 6 team in the table and has the same number of wins as Sassuolo. This is a good value on them at home. 

In discussing Sassuolo’s prospects moving forward, I’ve got to go back to last week’s analysis. Yes, they entered the match with Inter on their best run in five years. But I questioned whether it would last as they had yet to face any of the current top six teams in the Serie A table. Sure enough, they were humbled on the pitch last Saturday. I’d said that prior to the three straight clean sheets, they’d conceded a total of six times in the final two October matches. So I was not surprised in the least at what happened in Milan.

Roma holds a distinct head to head advantage over Sassuolo, losing only once in the last 14 matchups. That loss occurred back in February when they were down to 10 men. So there’s a bit of revenge in play here as well for the Romans. I just don’t see Sassuolo remaining near the top of the table. Other than last week’s loss to Napoli, Roma’s recent form has been quite good. That was their lone defeat going back to September, a stretch of 12 fixtures. They have 9 wins and 2 draws otherwise, one of the draws coming against table leaders AC Milan. They also have kept SIX clean sheets during that time! 10* AS Roma

10* Over Paris St Germain/Manchester United (3:00 ET): It’s approaching “must-win” territory for PSG on matchday five of the Champions League. The French side is tied with Leipzig (6 points each) for second in Group H and their chances of progressing to the knockout stage is very much in doubt right now. Leipzig will be expected to take the full three points from Istanbul earlier in the day, so there’s a chance PSG could be three points off second place heading into the final matchday. That would be considered quite the disappointment considering they were runners-up in last season’s Champions League. 

Manchester United enters Wednesday knowing it needs just one point from its final two matches to move on to the knockout stage. The Group H leaders have taken nine points from the first four matches, which includes a 2-1 win over PSG in the reverse fixture back in October. While struggling a bit in the Premier League, there’s no questioning the Red Devils’ scoring prowess here at Old Trafford in international competition. They’ve notched 24 goals while winning their last seven European home outings including nine in the two Champions League outings thus far. 

PSG’s four UCL matches have been curiously low-scoring affairs. They’ve scored only five goals while conceding four. Despite Man U not having much urgency here, I expect this to turn into another high-scoring affair at Old Trafford. PSG has found the back of the net in all four Champions League matches thus far and let’s not forget about their scoring on the domestic side as they lead Ligue 1 with 30 goals in the current campaign. But the fact they conceded twice to Bordeaux over the weekend should give you pause about taking them in this spot. Over is the call. 10* Over Paris St. Germain/Manchester United

8* Salzburg (12:55 ET): Group A of the UEFA Champions League figured to be dominated by two European powerhouses (pun intended), Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid. Bayern, the reigning UCL Champions and best side in all of Europe, has already assured itself a spot in the knockout stage with a 4-0 start. But Atletico Madrid, who has been so dominant in La Liga this season, has struggled here on the international stage with just 5 points from their four matches. That has left the door open for the “other two sides” in the Group, Lokomotiv Moscow and Red Bull Salzburg, who meet for the second time on Tuesday. 

Lokomotiv has three draws and just one loss so far in the group stage. The loss was to Bayern and just a narrow one at that (2-1). They’ve drawn Atletico twice and the other was 2-2 with Salzburg. While that would seem to make the Russian side the favorites at home Tuesday, they are not. While they’ve fared better than expected so far in the Champions League, Lokomotiv has won just once in its last nine fixtures. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw with Akhmat Grozny over the weekend. 

Salzburg has the dubious distinction of having conceded the most goals here in the group stage (14). But that can be excused by the fact they’ve had to play Bayern twice. They also lost to Atletico 3-2. But they’re not facing either of those sides here. While the path to the knockout stage is very narrow for the Austrian outfit, they can keep their hopes alive with a win here. They are the better side and should pick up that elusive first Champions League victory. On the domestic front, Salzburg leads the Austrian Bundesliga and scored EIGHT goals in their win over the weekend. 8* Salzburg

7* Leicester City (12:30 ET): Looking at the Premier League table, we’re starting to get some clarity. At the bottom, there are four obvious sides that will clearly be fighting just to stay out of the relegation zone all season. One is recently promoted Fulham, who is off to a 1-1-7 start and currently sits 19th. Those seven losses are second most in the league as we conclude Week 10. The lone win was over West Brom and the draw against Sheffield United, two other sides the Cottagers are battling with in the relegation zone.

Moving to the top of the table, we find Leicester City sitting in 4th place. While you’d think they’d be ecstatic about being in that coveted position, this club is still reeling from an ugly 3-0 loss at the hands of Liverpool last week. Mid-week, they conceded another three times, although this time they were able to escape with a draw against Braga in the Europa League. However, I’d like to remind fans of the Foxes that prior to those two results, their team had won four straight across all competitions with three of those wins coming here in the Premier League.

While it’s a relatively high price to take the home team Monday afternoon, I’m shocked it’s not much higher. Fulham just isn’t ready to compete with a side in the top half of the table, so this looks like a “get-well game” for Leicester City. Leicester is tied for the most wins in the EPL this season (6) while Fulham is tied for the worst defensive record in the league with 18 goals conceded in nine matches. 7* Leicester City

10* Inter Milan (9:00 AM ET): You could certainly say that this line is based more on reputation than results, but I still believe Internazionale is a side that could make its way to the top of the Serie A table. This was supposed to be the season where Juventus’ streak of nine straight Serie A league titles was broken. That may very well still end up being the case. But instead of the expected names - like Inter or even Atalanta - being ahead of Juventus, it’s surprising sides AC Milan and Sassuolo. This match will go a long way in determining of Inter (currently 5th) can be a major player. I think they come up big Saturday. 

Sassuolo is one of three sides in Serie A still without a loss. The other two are 1st place AC Milan and Juventus. Sassuolo is 2nd in the table with 18 points as they have five wins and three draws to their credit. Certainly, this was not expected from them. Only once in their history have the Neroverdi had a longer streak without a defeat in the Italian top flight. That was an 11-game run back in 2015. I’m not sold that this will continue. They’ve yet to be matched with any of the fellow top five teams in the table. While they’ve recorded three straight clean sheets, be aware they conceded a total of six times in the final two October matches.

Inter started out the season 2-0 and scored nine goals in the process of doing so. Since then, they’ve underwhelmed. Last week’s 4-2 win against Torino was not only a come from behind effort, but their only win across the last six competitions. They are just 2-3-1 L6 Serie A matches and were beaten twice by Real Madrid in Champions League play. But that should lead to the sense of desperation we’re looking for on Saturday while I assume Sassuolo is quite content with their current placement in the table. Inter typically travels well with their 15 away wins since the start of last season leading all of Serie A. 10* Inter Milan

10* Sevilla (12:55 ET): While it’s all been on the domestic front, I’ve had success taking Sevilla recently. They’ve come through for me in each of their last two La Liga matches, 1-0 against Osasuna and 4-2 over Celta Vigo. While both were a little too “close for comfort,” they were wins and the six points that come w/ them now have Los Nervionenses 7th in the table. Now it's back to the Champions League where they’re level with Chelsea atop Group E (7 pts each). They’ll face FC Krasnodar on Tuesday, a side they already defeated 3-2 in the reverse match at home earlier this month. I see another win forthcoming. 

Sevilla are no strangers to international success. They won the Europa League last year and now are looking to make it through to the knockout stage of Europe’s bigger prize here in 2020-21. Sevilla has made it to the knockout stage in four of its previous five Champions League appearances, the most recent being 2017-18 when they progressed all the way to the quarterfinals. Six points clear of the third place team in Group E and having recently improved their overall form things are looking quite good for Los Nervionenses right now. A win here would make it four straight wins across all competitions. 

I am well aware that it took an incredible comeback for Sevilla to defeat Krasnodar in the reverse match. They came back from two goals down to win 3-2. But one of the two goals they conceded came on a penalty. The odds of them falling behind again are rather slim when you consider Krasnodar has won just once in its last seven competitions with five defeats. This is their first ever Champions League appearance and while they drew w/ Rennes, a 4-0 loss to Chelsea shows just how far a chasm exists between them and the top two in Group E. They’ve disappointed domestically as well, currently sitting ninth in the table. 10* Sevilla

8* Sevilla (12:30 ET): To say Sevilla is off to a disappointing La Liga start would be putting it mildly. Last year’s Europa League Champions have collected just 10 points from their seven league fixtures thus far, which has them sitting all the way down in 12th place in the table. That’s just not an acceptable position for a side that was once again expected to finish in the top four. But right before the International Break, Los Nervionenses did snap a three-game losing streak (on the domestic side) w/ a 1-0 win over Osasuna. 

I had Sevilla in that 1-0 win, which was obviously much needed on their end. What makes the La Liga performance all the more perplexing is the fact they’ve performed quite well in the Champions League, getting seven points from three matches, which has them level with Chelsea atop Group E. The price has come way down this week vs. Celta de Vigo, which is something I just don’t understand despite the middling form of the (still) favored hosts. Celta de Vigo is one of La Liga’s weakest sides. 

It wasn’t that long ago when I faded Celta de Vigo against another top La Liga side whose prior form had been disappointing. That would be Atletico Madrid, who dealt Celta Viga a 2-0 loss back on October 17th. Since that time, Celta Vigo has gone winless in three subsequent matches w/ two draws and a 4-1 loss to Real Sociedad. This side has just one win in nine La Liga fixtures and their seven points has them in danger of relegation. With the worst goal differential in all of La Liga (-9), I see another loss here. 8* Sevilla

10* Over Wolfsburg/Schalke 04 (9:30 AM ET): Wolfsburg still has yet to lose a match this Bundesliga campaign. The only other side in the top German flight than can claim that is Bayer Leverkusen, who currently sits 4th in the table. Wolfsburg is 6th due to drawing in five of their seven matches. Other than that head-scratching percentage of draws, the other thing you’ll notice about Wolfsburg’s results is how low-scoring they’ve been. That will end Saturday when they face one of the bottom teams in the table, Schalke 04. 

Schalke currently finds itself in the relegation zone, sitting 17th (out of 18) with just three points. They’re still winless in the Bundesliga this season, but have actually shown some recent improvement with three draws in the last four domestic matches. The most recent came against fellow relegation zone occupant Mainz, a 2-2 affair that saw Schalke twice rally back from a one-goal deficit. However, they could not have earned said draw w/o being gifted an own goal in the 82nd minute. 

Schalke is dead last in the Bundesliga with a -17 goal differential, which is owed to the fact they’ve conceded more times than anybody (22 goals allowed). This is a side that’s won just one time in its last 24 fixtures and it was against a team of amateurs (literally) earlier this month. This should be an easy three points for Wolfsburg, but obviously the price is too high to play things that way. So instead I’ll call for a “coming out party” offensively as they could easily send this one Over themselves. 10* Over Wolfsburg/Schalke 04

10* Over Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg (9:30 ET): Wolfsburg has yet to lose this Bundesliga campaign. The only other club that can make that claim is Bayer Leverkusen, who also plays Sunday. Yet Die Wolfe still find themselves sitting 11th in the table, despite being unbeaten and having conceded only four goals. How can this be? Well, they’ve only scored five times and that’s led to five draws in six matches! For the record, I had them in their only win, which came two weeks ago against promoted Arminia Bielefeld. 

While not unbeaten like Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim has quite a credential on its 2020-21 resume and that’s a 4-1 win over Bayern Munich prior to the first International break. But since that shocking upset, there’s been a real downturn in form as they’ve taken just one point from their last four matches (in a 1-1 draw w/ Werder Bremen). Amidst that slide on the domestic side has been some strong play in the Europa League, however. TSG has won all three matches in that competition while scoring 11 goals. They are off 5-0 win over Liberec midweek, a result which is notable for this play. 

With just nine total goals (five scored, four conceded) in six matches, Wolfsburg is due for some “fireworks,” at least in my estimation. FWIW, this is the same tact I took with my last Over bet on the pitch, last Monday w/ Hellas Verona, a Serie A side whose season had started in familiar fashion to Wolfsburg’s here in the Bundesliga. HV scored three goals in a win Monday. Hoffenheim has both scored and conceded 10 times in this campaign. Look for this one to go Over the total. 10* Over Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg

10* West Ham (3:00 ET): For the first time in seven tries this campaign, Fulham was able to emerge victorious last week. They downed West Brom 2-0 and the three points that come with the win allows them to temporarily escape the relegation zone (bottom three in the table). But make no mistake about it, the Cottagers are going to struggle to remain in England’s top flight. Beating the Premier League’s other recently promoted side was nice, but Fulham had been outscored by nine goals in its first six matches. 

Though they saw a four-match unbeaten streak end (WWDD) last week against Liverpool, the Hammers have definitely proven to be the proverbial “tough out” this Premier League campaign. They still sit closer to the bottom of the table than the top (currently in 14th), but have a positive goal differential (+3), which is something no other side in the bottom half can claim. A loss to Liverpool, who won the Premier League LY and entered the week leading the table, was something to be expected.

This is a golden opportunity for West Ham to pick up three points and move up the table. They’ve already beaten Leicester City 4-0 and Wolverton 3-0 while drawing with Tottenham and Man City. Since losing 2-0 to Newcastle in Week One, the Hammers have been successful in three of their past four home matches. Fulham has yet to win on the road and wins of any kind will be few and far between. Can’t see the bottom-feeders earning points in two straight matches and this is West Ham’s for the taking. 10* West Ham

8* Sevilla FC (12:30 ET): On the International side of things, Sevilla FC is doing just fine. Last year’s Europa League winners just won their Champions League match on Wednesday, doing so in thrilling fashion, as they erased a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2. They are well on their way to the knockout stage. However, there’s no running from the fact Los Nervionenses have underperformed on the domestic side of things. They have lost three straight La Liga matches to fall to 16th in the table. This is a side that was expected to finish top four. 

I see Sevilla getting back on track Saturday as they host Osasuna, an opponent they have defeated seven straight times here at home. The last time Osasuna won at Estadio Ramon was February of 2006! It was a 3-2 final in this fixture last season. Osasuna’s own form leaves plenty to be desired, even though they currently sit above Sevilla in the table. Los Rojillos are on the backend of a 3-1 home defeat at the hands of Atletico Madrid. With Barcelona being their next away match, this is a pretty brutal stretch. 

Sevilla has conceded only six times in six La Liga matches, which is very good! The problem is they’ve only scored six times themselves. Wednesday clearly showed that they are capable of scoring goals in bunches as they stormed back w/ three goals despite being down a man. A big problem for Osasuna is that they have not scored more than one goal in five of their previous six matches. Unlike Sevilla, I see no signs that is going to change. It’s time for Sevilla to get going. 8* Sevilla FC

8* Borussia Dortmund (3:00 ET): While BVB has generally displayed poor form away from home in this competition and there’s the possibility for a look ahead to Saturday’s Der Klassiker (vs. Bayern Munich), I like them to get the three points Wednesday. That would allow for Dortmund to jump their opponents here (Brugge) in Group F and move on to the knockout stage. That should be enough motivation for them to (temporarily) put aside their excitement over the biggest Bundesliga match to date.

The difference between these two sides is that Brugge was able to draw with Lazio while Dortmund fell 3-1 to I Biancocelesti. Both have beaten Zenit St. Petersburg. I admit that BVB’s 2-0 win in matchday two was not all that impressive. But that was followed by another 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld over the weekend on the domestic side (Bundesliga). Thus, Dortmund concluded October with five clean sheets in six matches (Lazio the only exception), which is a really impressive feat and something that should not be overlooked. 

The Belgian side are making a third straight Champions League appearance. They’ve finished third in Group stage each of the last two years, so history says they are going to lose here. Keep in mind they needed a late strike to get past Zenit St. Petersburg (2-1) and then it was a penalty that got them a draw against Lazio (who was depleted due to COVID-19). So it easily could be one point instead of four coming into this final match of the Group stage. Dortmund is clearly the more talented side here and I’m banking that they show it. 8* Borussia Dortmund

10* Over Benevento/Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): The final match of Week Six in Serie A sees two teams from the middle of the table hooking up. Recently promoted Benevento, after a surprising 2-1 start to the season, seems to have fallen into poor form. They’ve lost three in a row including 4-2 to Empoli in the Coppa Italia midweek. Hellas Verona is off a 3-3 draw against Venezia in the Coppa Italia, a result not unfamiliar to them as it was their third straight draw overall. They drew LY’s champs Juventus (1-1) in their last Serie A competition.

Hellas Verona has somewhat become “known” for playing to a draw. In 2020, only one other side from Europe’s top five leagues - La Liga’s Celta Vigo (14) - has more draws than Hellas Verona’s 11. But something else HV matches have been known for this year - at least here in Serie A - is being low scoring. In five previous matches, they’ve conceded only twice. That’s comfortably the fewest number in the league. They’ve also only scored five times, which is tied for the league-low. 

But I feel that’s about to change in this matchup. Benevento has conceded 14 times, which is third most in all of Serie A. And consider that’s despite not yet playing their sixth match. At the same time, the nine goals scored is somewhat respectable. Benevento has conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches. They should give up at least that many here, probably at least one in the first half as Hellas Verona is the lone Serie A side w/o a 1H goal this season. (That’s due to change). It would be huge if Benevento found the back of the net as well and I think they will as they’ve yet to be kept clean. 10* Over Benevento/Hellas Verona

8* Tottenham (2:15 ET): While there’s been much consternation overall the Spurs’ recent form, they’ve actually been quite impressive here in the Premier League. They’ve got the best goal differential in the English top flight and despite having played one fewer match than most other sides, they’ve scored the second most goals (16). Only Liverpool (17) has scored more and that’s only because they played yesterday. Bottom line is that I am expecting Tottenham to make a run to the top of the table. 

Now a Europa League loss to Royal Antwerp on Thursday was not what the doctor ordered. Jose Mourinho made several changes to his lineup for that one, including the re-introduction of Gareth Bale into the starting lineup. But it was not to be. Still, you’ve got to remember we had the Hotspurs on Monday when they scored late to prevail 1-0 over Burnley. The domestic match before that one saw them up 3-0 before infamously coughing up that lead to West Ham. They haven’t lost an EPL match since the opener.

I see too much firepower here to be beaten by bottom-feeder Brighton & Hove Albion, a side with just one Premier League win. B&H are on a four match winless streak on the domestic side. I see them as likely to be fighting off relegation this season. They have just one Premier League win over Tottenham - ever. They managed just a pair of draws against fellow bottom feeders Crystal Palace and West Brom the L2 times out and conceded a total of 10 times in their three losses. A good matchup for the Spurs here. 8* Tottenham.

10* Eintracht Frankfurt (10:30 AM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt was my pick for most improved club this Bundesliga campaign and so far it’s been mixed results. They are currently sitting near the middle of the table, not far off from last year’s finish, with 8 points. They are level (same # of points) with this week’s opponents, Werder Bremen, the only difference being a slightly inferior goal differential. However, the fact Frankfurt has been outscored by two goals in their five matches (while Bremen is even) can easily be explained by the fact the former had to face Bayern Munich (#1 team in Europe) last week.

Frankfurt probably didn’t feel they had much of a shot at beating Bayern Munich last week, however a 5-0 defeat (which is what happened) is not what they had in mind either. That was their first loss of the campaign as they’d opened with two wins sandwiched in between a pair of draws. It was also the first time they’d conceded more than a goal in a match. This side is clearly better than it showed last weekend. I still view them as a top five team in the Bundesliga.

Werder Bremen is NOT a name I expected to be fighting to be near the top of the table, but here we are. They are unbeaten in their last four matches, but also coming off B2B draws against Hoffenheim and Freiburg. It should be noted that the only time Bremen has scored more than one goal was at the expense of Schalke, who is the dreg of this league. This side isn’t at 100% fitness as there will be key absences for this away test. The last two times these clubs have met, the result has been a combined 5-0 score for Frankfurt. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt

8* Inter Milan (1:55 ET): Though they largely outplayed Gladback in the opening match of the group stage, Inter had to settle for a 2-2 draw. On the domestic front (Serie A), they got back to taking care of business as over the weekend they dominated Genoa 2-0. I thought Inter was perhaps Italy’s best team last season, even though they finished behind perennial winner Juventus. Back in the Champions League, I expect a full three points on Tuesday as they face Shakhtar Donetsk, a Ukranian side off a stunning win. 

No one saw Shakhtar’s upset of Real Madrid coming last week. The Ukranian side was widely believed to be the “long shot” of Group B, but stunned the favorites last Wednesday in a 3-2 final. Give credit where credit is due, but it was a widely panned effort from Real Madrid, who had an own goal and was in a lookahead to “El Clasico” with Barcelona over the weekend (which they won). Inter won’t be as disinterested here coming off their disappointing draw.

Shakhtar’s upsetting Real Madrid made Inter’s draw all the more disappointing as they failed to take advantage of the favorite losing. If they wish to take Group B, which is now a possibility, winning here is a must. Inter won the last fixture between these two, 5-0 back in August, part of the Europa League. Perhaps the most shocking aspect of Shkhtar’s upset last week was that they were dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that severely weakened the roster. 8* Inter Milan

8* Tottenham (4:00 ET): The Hotspurs find themselves in the middle of the Premier League table right now, but actually own the best goal differential (+7, tied w/ Aston Villa). They are off a very shocking draw with West Ham last week where they blew a 3-0 lead, conceding all three goals in the final 10 minutes. I look for them to bounce back this week though and get the full three (points) at the expense of Burnley, who is down in the relegation zone and simply lacks the firepower to compete with Tottenham here. 

Burnley are one of four EPL sides currently without a win this campaign. They’ve played just four times, but have lost three and drawn one. That one draw was last week, against fellow winless club West Brom, and was of the scoreless variety. Burnley has scored just three times in four games, two of those goals coming in a 4-2 loss to Leicester City. Individual game efforts have not been impressive for a side that has finished 10th or lower three of the last four years. Compared to past seasons, this outfit seems weaker. 

Remember that before the Int’l Break, Tottenham crushed Man U 6-1. They are tied for most goals scored in the EPL this season (15) and that’s despite playing one fewer game than virtually everyone else. They’ve actually already bounced back somewhat from last week’s heartbreak, winning their Europa League opener 3-0 over LASK Linz. But their standing domestically is still of greater importance and I expect a very sharp performance Monday afternoon. 8* Tottenham

8* Wolfsburg (10:30 AM ET): The good news through four games is that Wolfsburg is still unbeaten. The bad news is that they are also still winless. Die Wolf has opened the 2020-21 Bundesliga campaign with four straight draws, leaving them 13th in the table, an uncomfortable position for sure. Twice, they have rallied back from 1-0 deficits, including last week against Gladbach. The other two matches have been scoreless draws. This is where they breakthrough though as they face recently promoted Arminia Bielefeld.

The recently promoted side is level with Wolfsburg at four points. DSC is 1-1-2 and just got the proverbial “rude awakening” at the hands of Bayern Munich last week, losing 4-1. There’s no shame in losing to the best team in all of Europe, but look for there to be a “carryover” type effect for Die Arminien. After winning the 2 LY, they’d been pretty competitive before running into Bayern Munich. But the issue of scoring persists. They have scored 1 or 0 goals in every game this season. 

Only two teams have scored fewer times than DSC and Wolfsburg (just 2 goals) is one of them. (Schalke is the other). But I look for Wolfsburg to “break out” on Sunday. Arminia goaltender Stefan Ortega had a rough outing against Bayern Munich and that kind of performance leads me to believe Die Wolf will have their fair share of scoring opportunities here. As discussed LW, Arminia had a very high save percentage LY down in the 2, something that is not likely to carry over to the German top flight. 8* Wolfsburg

10* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): Madrid certainly took a very disappointing result in the Champions League earlier this week as it lost 4-0 to Bayern Munich. While there’s obviously little shame in losing to the best side in all of Europe, getting dominated to that degree is never fun. But now there’s business to be taken care of in the domestic flight as they are sitting surprisingly low in the La Liga table (9th) despite possessing the 2nd best goal differential (+7). I expect an easy three points here. 

Atletico Madrid won for us last Saturday, 2-0 over Celta Vigo. That was a step in the right direction as they look to move up the table. Since opening with an impressive 6-1 win over Granada, they have just last week’s win and two scoreless draws. On the bright side, they are the ONLY La Liga side w/o a loss thus far and they’ve conceded just one goal in four matches. Luis Suarez was back on the scoresheet last week and you should look for Madrid to start making its move up the table. 

Real Betis is actually a point ahead of Atletico Madrid, but they’ve played twice more than the Red & Whites. They’ve also been beaten in half those six matches. They are off a 3-0 loss at the hands of table leaders Real Sociedad and that’s the kind of score you should probably be expecting again here. Betis has been very inconsistent so far, but winning here is something they’ve never been known for as their last away win in this fixture came all the way back in 2011! In the last five H2H meetings, Madrid has conceded only twice. 10* Atletico Madrid

8* Borussia Monchengladbach (9:30 ET): For a team that fancies itself as being among the elite in the German top flight, Monchengladbach has some work to do. After four games, they find themselves only 11th in the table with five points. They are coming off successive home draws, the more recent coming last Saturday against Wolfsburg. Not all is bad, however. M’gladbach is coming off an impressive 2-2 draw with Inter Milan in Champions League action earlier in the week. Their attacking style should make for an easy three points here against Mainz, who sits at the bottom of the Bundesliga table. 

Mainz isn’t just last in the table, they are the only club w/o a win here in the 2020-21 season. They are 0-4 having scored only twice while conceding 12 times. Quite frankly, it’s been a while since this side had much to cheer about. They are winless in their last six across all competitions. Relegation is looking like a serious reality here. While Gladbach has conceded in every match thus far, Mainz has been blanked two straight times. 

Having qualified for the Champions League last season, Gladbach certainly ought to be higher in the table. While teams like Frankfurt and RB Leipzig are certainly much improved, I can still see Die Fohlen earning another top four finish. The three points here are a must, however. I expect a “take no prisoners” approach on Saturday. They’ve beaten Mainz four straight times and not conceded in three of the last five meetings. 8* Borussia Monchengladbach

8* Rennes (3:00 ET): At this point, Stade Rennes has to be sick of playing to draw. They did so in Champions League action earlier this week, conceding the equalizer to Krasnodar just three minutes after scoring on a penalty. They’ve also drawn in their last two matches here in the domestic top flight, putting the brakes on what had been a solid run to the top of the Ligue 1 table. Making matters worse is that those draws came against Reims and Dijon, the bottom two clubs in the table. Rennes could clearly use a win right now. 

Enter Angers, who may not currently be in the relegation zone, but probably ought to be. Les Scoistes have one of the worst goal differentials (-7) in the entire table, largely due to an ugly 6-1 loss to PSG three weeks ago. That was followed with their own draw, 1-1 against Metz, leaving Angers with three wins, a draw and three losses. Ironically, they hold victories over both Reims and Dijon, something Rennes could not do. But other than a 3-2 win over Brest, Angers has yet to score more than once in any fixture this campaign nor have they demonstrated any capability to compete with the top teams. 

History is not on Angers’ side here as their last win over Rennes in Ligue 1 action came all the way back in 1976! Rennes has won 11 of the past 14 meetings including 2-1 in the only fixture from last season. While Angers has scored only eight goals and conceded 15 this campaign, Rennes is just the opposite, scoring 15 and conceding only 8. Rennes is the only Ligue 1 side w/o a loss as they’ve got 4 wins and 3 draws. This is a MUST win. 8* Rennes

8* Fiorentina (9:00 AM ET): It’s been a bit of a rough start to the season for Fiorentina, who sits 14th in the Serie A table after two straight defeats. Losing Federico Chiesa (on loan to Juventus) was a tough blow for La Viola, but the three points are for the taking this week as they visit promoted Spezia, who is playing in Italy’s top flight for the 1st time in their 114 year history. Impressively, they’ve already notched a win, but it came at the expense of struggling Udinese, who seems almost certainly headed for relegation. 

If you recall, we played against Spezia in their Serie A opener. That turned out to be a 4-1 loss to Sassuolo as they were clearly outclassed. It was more of the same two weeks ago vs. AC Milan, who blanked them 3-0. So take away the match vs. Udinese and the Bianconeri have been outscored 7-1. While Fiorentina isn’t at the same level as those two opponents, they are a side that clearly expects to win Sunday. 

Making matters worse for Spezia is a litany of injuries including one to Andrey Galabinov, who is doubtful here. That’s a big problem considering he is the only player to score this season! Fiorentina more than held its own against Inter, losing 4-3, before taking a painful 2-1 loss to previously winless Sampdoria. But with this match to be followed w/ a date against the aforementioned Udinese, they’ve got a chance to climb up the table the next two weeks. Look for the favorites to grab the full three (points) here. 8* Fiorentina

10* Monaco (9:00 AM ET): Things set up quite well for Monaco to pick up three points Sunday as their opponents have been impacted COVID-19. Montpellier reported 12 positive cases on Friday, eight players and four more on the coaching staff. After further testing, only two were confirmed as actual positives. Still, it’s a problematic situation for a side that went into the international break winless in their two previous matches.

This is a very important matchup between sides currently 6th and 7th in the Ligue 1 table. Monaco needs to take advantage of the situation. They are also off a loss as they were kept clean two weeks ago by Brest. That 1-0 defeat was especially painful as they really dominated possession (21 shots to 7!) but they gave up an early goal and could never get the equalizer. It was the first time this season that Monaco was blanked.

Had all those positive tests not been a false alarm, this would have been a dream scenario for Monaco. As things stand now, I still expect them to take advantage of all the midweek chaos Montpellier had to endure. Manager Michel Der Zakarian is one of the two actually confirmed as being positive and that’s certainly a loss. Monaco won 1-0 the last time these two sides met (back in February), their 1st triumph over Montpellier since 2017. Make it two in a row now. 10* Monaco

8* Over Bayern Munich/Arminia Bielefeld (12:30 ET): It was a real shocker when Bayern, the class of all of European soccer, took a loss so early in the Bundesliga campaign. Back on September 27th, they fell 4-1 at the hands of Hoffenheim. To be fair, they were just three days removed from winning the UEFA Super Cup so perhaps that was a hangover. Right before the International Break, the Bavarians took another scare but were able to outlast Hertha Berlin 4-3. They now have 13 goals in three Bundesliga matches. 

Recently promoted Arminia Bielefeld has been more competitive than expected through its first three matches. They opened by drawing a very good Eintracht Frankfurt side, then beat FC Cologne 1-0. Finally, they tasted defeat at the top flight when they fell 1-0 to Werder Bremen. The lack of scoring in Arminia’s games should come as no shock to anyone that followed them last season when they won the 2. That said, they won’t be able to maintain that kind of save percentage this season, especially Saturday against the standard-bearers. 

It has been said that Bayern Munich seemingly scores goals for “fun.” While no Arminia Bielefeld game has seen more than two total goals scored, they are in for a “rude awakening” here on Saturday. Bayern should easily get three, if not four and send this one Over themselves. If Arminia can score, which they very well may given Bayern’s defensive lapses, then this is a lock to go Over. Scoring is way up across all Euro leagues this season and this one continues the trend. 8* Over Bayern Munich/Arminia Bielefeld

8* Atletico Madrid (10:00 AM ET): After opening the La Liga campaign with a dominant 6-1 win over Granada, Atletico Madrid played to a pair of scoreless draws with Huesca & Villarreal. Not what the Red & Whites were hoping for there, though it’s still early on and there’s plenty of points left for the taking. Atletico has played only three La Liga matches thus far, due to its ongoing involvement in the Champions League. Speaking of which, this Wednesday sees them traveling to face Bayern Munich (the class of Europe) in that particular event. Arriving there in peak form is what they’re looking for & I expect a win from this side on Saturday.

Celta Vigo also has five points, though that’s with the benefit of five matches. So the comparison to Atletico Madrid is not an apt one considering they’ve played two more times. The campaign started well enough for Celta as they were 1-2-0 through three matches, but they’ve been kept clean in each of the last two in Spain’s top flight. They were beaten 3-0 by Barcelona here at home, then 2-0 at Osasuna right before the international break. 

Even though Celta Viga has played two more times than Atletico Madrid, it seems odd to see these two sides tied in the middle of the table. Atletico Madrid is a name I expect to see near the top while Celta have just barely avoided relegation the L2 years (B2B 17th place finishes).Atletico has been victorious only once against Celta its last four La Liga tries and has not won here since October 2017. Nevertheless, led by Luis Suarez, expect them to get the full three (points) here. 8* Atletico Madrid

7* RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Two of the early pacesetters in the German Bundesliga meet Saturday in WWK Arena. Both Leipzig and Augsburg have taken seven out of a possible nine points thus far. Leipzig’s draw came in Week 2 with Bayer Leverkusen (1-1) and they bounced back from that by blasting overmatched Schalke 4-1 the following week. Augsburg played to a scoreless draw with Wolfsburg last time out. Despite the matching resumes, there is one side I clearly prefer in this one and it should be obvious who that is.

A line like this, when you’re talking about two teams tied at the top of the table, should raise eyebrows. While it's still very early in the campaign, no one expects Augsburg to stay at the top. Die Fuggerstadter has conceded only once thus far, tied for the Bundesliga lead, but look for that stinginess to “wear off” come Saturday. Leipzig has only conceded twice while scoring eight times, which is three more than Augsburg. Note Augsburg has only beaten Leipzig once in eight Bundesliga matchups. It was 3-1 and 2-1 in favor of Die Rotten Bullen last year.

Leipzig has gone eight straight away matches w/o tasting defeat. A ninth straight would be a club record. But make no mistake about it, this side is not interested in a draw. They had 12 draws in the last campaign, which cost them. They want a win here heading into the Champions League. Meanwhile, this is Augsburg’s best ever start in the Bundesliga and it’s not going to last. 7* RB Leipzig

10* Lyon (3:00 ET): This battle of Olympique rivals has me quite intrigued. Despite no other European competition to worry about, Lyon has struggled with domestic foes. Since opening with an impressive 4-1 win over Dijon, Les Gones has only been able to manage three draws and a loss. Considering the firepower, they need to be better if they wish to return to the top four and Champions League qualification. 

Marseille has also cooled off recently. They began the season with two victories, one of them a stunner against PSG but are just 0-2-1 since and like Lyon played to a 1-1 draw last week. But their draw very much could have been a loss as they did not get the equalizer until the 95th minute, a bit of remarkable good fortune that can’t be counted on regularly. Also consider they were facing a struggling Metz side in that one and the lone goal was just the team’s third in the last four games. 

Marseille hasn’t won here in Lyon since 2007-08, which is a long stretch of losing, and they dropped four of the past five Ligue 1 tilts to their rivals as well. This has all the makings of a “get well” game for Lyon, who has the better goal differential despite taking fewer points thus far. 10* Lyon

8* Rennes (11:00 AM ET): Given where these two sides are at in the table, this is a shockingly low price. The early Ligue 1 leaders Rennes have taken 13 of a possible 15 points thus far and will be looking for a 5th straight victory on Sunday. Meanwhile, their opponents have lost four in a row (longest losing streak in Ligue 1) while managing just one goal and that has them 19th (second to last) overall. Don’t overthink this one. 

Rennes was expected to be tested last week by Saint-Etienne, but instead they delivered a convincing 3-0 win to move themselves to the top of the table. This is a critical stretch for Les Rouge et Noir as not only are they expected to win here, but they’ll be favored in the three Ligue 1 matches following the international break as well. That means they could open up a sizable gap in the table before heading to PSG for a November showdown. Don’t look for Rennes to overlook their opponents here though as they’ve actually lost four straight times to Reims including a pair of 1-0 decisions last season. 

Like Rennes, Reims opened this campaign with a draw. Since then, things have obviously gone much differently. They’ve been kept clean in three of the previous four matches, including a 2-0 loss to PSG last weekend. This side made history last season by qualifying for European competition for the 1st time in 57 years. However, they’ve struggled across all competitions thus far, never scoring more than once in each of the L6 fixtures. Facing an opponent that is fueled by revenge and tied for the Ligue 1 lead in goals scored, Reims has little chance here. 8* Rennes

10* Sassuolo (6:30 AM ET): Last season was Sassuolo’s highest finish in the Serie A table (8th) since 2015-16. Coming off that effort, they opened 2020-21 by playing to a 1-1 draw with Cagliari, striking late to earn themselves a point. They should have no problem getting the full three (points) Sunday when they face recently promoted Spezia, who will be taking the field for the first time at the top flight level. 

Spezia finished third in Serie B last season, earning promotion through the playoffs. This is a club that had to declare bankruptcy 12 years ago after being relegated from the second tier. So it’s been a long climb to this level of play. Unfortunately, there figures to be a steep learning curve, especially when matched up with the top teams in the league. It’s very difficult for me to see a win, or even a draw, from them in this debut. 

Sassuolo should feel no shame in last week’s draw. After all, they drew Cagliari both times last season. But this is a situation where they have to be eyeing the full three points this week. Last season’s slow start (just two wins in the first seven matches) has to be fresh in their minds. The L2 meetings with Spezia (most recent in ‘18) have produced a pair of “clean sheets” for Sassuolo. The fact this line has moved so much should tell you something. 10* Sassuolo

8* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): The big story coming into this Serie A season is whether or not Juventus can continue it’s long stretch of dominance in this league. Last year saw the i Bianconeri capture their ninth consecutive title, but the reality is they were not the best team. I’d say BOTH Internazionale and Atalanta were better and that’s confirmed by the goal differential column where our side for Saturday was #1 in the table at +50. This is an aggressive side that had an early “cold spell” last season. I don’t think it will happen again. 

Of all the clubs that want to fancy themselves as better than Juventus, Torino definitely is not one of them. They finished 16th last season, their lowest position in the table since being relegated in 2008-09. They lost 20 of 38 matches in 2019-20 and started this campaign w/ a 1-0 loss to Fiorentina, a side nowhere near as talented as the one they’ll face here on Saturday. While Torino was fairly active in the transfer market, they won’t have summer arrival Ricardo Rodriguez due to a hip problem. 

Atalanta has yet to open its Serie A campaign. They were given last week off due to their involvement in the Champions League (where they reached the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champs PSG). The Black & Blues did win all four friendlies this summer, so they’re in fine form. I suppose there’s always the danger of taking Torino too lightly, but I don’t think that’ll happen. This is a strong side that scored 98 goals last season, which was 17 more than the next highest-scoring side. It was more than double the number of goals scored by Torino! 8* Atalanta

10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (2:30 PM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt had to be terribly disappointed with the result from their first Bundesliga match of the 2020-21 season. Facing promoted Arminia Bielefeld, all the Die Adler could muster was a 1-1 draw. Considering how they really dominated possession, that should have been a win. This is a side that fell just four points shy of Europa League qualification last season, so turning these draws into wins is paramount. 

Meanwhile, Hertha Berlin is one of seven sides in the league that started out with a win. They downed Werder Bremen 4-1. That opponent was in total disarray from the outset, so I wouldn’t go reading too much into it. Hertha isn’t a team likely to finish near the top of the table this season. They actually finished one point behind Frankfurt last season.

While Hertha has lost just one time in its previous five home affairs, that loss occurred to Frankfurt and it was by a score of 4-1. The sides also played to a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt last season. Coming off the disappointing draw, I expect an aggressive Frankfurt team here and taking the goal line is the way to go as it’ll give us a win in case of another draw. As I stated in last week’s analysis, Frankfurt is an underrated club this season. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt

10* Napoli (6:30 AM ET): Napoli isn’t accustomed to middle of the table finishes. Yet that’s precisely where the Blues found themselves at the end of LY’s campaign - seventh to be precise. That was their worst finish in Serie A in 11 years. Keep in mind that they have finished 2nd in three of the previous five seasons. Possession numbers were actually quite good in 2019-20. In fact, they were best in the league. Yet Napoli somehow only finished 8th in scoring, a number that should most certainly go up this year. 

Parma finished not far behind Napoli last season, in 11th, which was an improvement on their 14th place finish the year prior. Shockingly, they beat Napoli in both head to head meetings last year - both times by a score of 2-1. But unlike their opponents, I’m not seeing much room for improvement for Parma in 2020-21. 

This being a revenge spot, Napoli will be extra motivated to start its season with a win, especially of an unusually down campaign. 10* Napoli

8* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 ET): I thought Eintracht Frankfurt was deserving of a better fate than a middle of the table finish last season. Some ill-timed defensive lapses definitely cost them, but baseline statistics say they were better than their 13-15-6 record indicated. Only the top five had more goals scored. We all know that reigning Bundesliga champ Bayern Munich remains perhaps the best team in all of Europe. But with the likes of Borussia Dortmund likely to regress in 2020, the path to the Champions League is there for Eintracht Frankfurt. Look for Adi Hutter’s Eagles to start the season with a big win. 

Arminia Bielefeld is one of the two promoted teams in the Bundesliga this season. They were a pretty defensive minded club last season in winning the 2, giving up by far the fewest number of goals down there. But I worry about a lack of firepower as they step up in competition. Possession numbers weren’t that great against a caliber of clubs they’ll no longer be facing. I’d be shocked if Arminia made much noise at all this season. 

The Bundesliga has decided to allow fans, so that’s another edge for Frankfurt, not that they needed it for this one. This was a Europa League semi-finalist two years ago. It was a down 2019-20, but they should rebound. Arminia last triumphed against Frankfurt in the 2006-07 Bundesliga campaign. They also suffered a shock exit in DFB-Pokal at Monday at the hands of Rot-Weiss Essen. Meanwhile, Frankfurt won its tuneup 2-1 over 1860 Munich. They also won five of their final seven Bundesliga matches LY. 8* Eintracht Frankfurt

10* Under Bologna/Lecce (11:15 AM ET): There’s not much at stake here on the Bologna side of things. They’ve been in poor form recently, resulting in them being 12th in the Serie A table. Meanwhile, it’s a far more dire state of affairs for 18th points Lecce, who did win Wednesday but still need a couple more victories to avoid relegation. I’m calling for Sunday’s match to be a bit lower scoring than what the oddsmakers think.

It should be pointed out that Lecce’s recent win came at the expense of Brescia, a side already doomed to relegation. The three goals scored by Lecce were their most in any contest since a win over Napoli back on February 7th. Since play resumed, they’ve been held to 1 or 0 goals six times. On the bright side of things, they’ve held the opposition to one goal or less in four of the past five matches. Note that in one of those they fell victim to an “own goal,” which was the decider in a 2-1 loss to Genoa.

Bologna’s recent efforts resemble that of a team with little to play for. They’ve gone five games without a win, though they certainly played well in a 1-0 defeat to Atalanta, who has set the Serie A record with 95 goals this season. Toss aside last week’s miserable 5-1 loss to AC Milan and Bologna hasn’t conceded more than two goals since the restart. But they’ve also now been held to 1 or 0 goals in 9 of the previous 12 matches including each of the last three. 10* Under Bologna/Lecce

10* Chelsea (10:00 AM ET): What a difference a single fixture can have! Chelsea had been “feeling the Blues” (pun intended!) until ousting Liverpool from FA Cup competition. Sure, it’s pretty clear that some malaise has set in w/ the Liverpool club, but they are still on track to set a Premier League record for points. By defeating them 2-0 Tuesday, Chelsea received a much needed “shot in the arm” as they try and remain in the EPL’s top four. Look for that huge win to have a carryover-type effect when they return to Premier League action on Sunday. 

Everton is currently 11th in the table. It’s a tricky spot as they are well clear of relegation status, but also not really a threat to catch Chelsea for the top four (top four teams qualify for Champions League). Their YTD goal differential of -5 speaks to substandard play. Really it’s been the definition of mediocre though as they are 3-3-3 the past nine matches. But that includes an 0-2 record against the top two teams, Liverpool and Man City. The Toffees were able to play to a 1-1 draw last week vs. Man City. 

Coming off the clean sheet win over Liverpool, I just don’t see how Chelsea loses here in Stamford Bridge. While it’s true that their prior form (1-2-2 in Feb) hadn’t been that good, they just beat the best that the EPL has to offer. Plus this is a revenge situation for a 3-1 loss back in December. They also want to hold onto their tenuous 4th place lead. There are injury issues for both lineups, but moreso for Everton. 10* Chelsea

10* Over West Ham/Southampton (10:00 AM ET): West Ham United is where you don’t want to be and that’s among the bottom three in the table, meaning they are in danger of relegation right now. Monday’s 3-2 loss to Liverpool marked the eighth consecutive match where the Hammers failed to emerge victorious. Four of those matches (0W 6L 2D) have seen them fail to score a goal while in two others they managed only one. But the multi-score effort from Monday provides some hope for more goal scoring Saturday.

Southampton put an end to its own four-match run without a win last Saturday with a 2-0 decision over Aston Villa. Keeping a clean sheet is not something you expect from the Saints. After all, they’ve conceded 48 times this season, matching West Ham for the third most goals allowed in the entire EPL. So by that standard, there’s every reason to expect at least one of these teams will score twice on Saturday. 

In fact, West Ham can claim four consecutive Premier League victories over Southampton and they have scored nine times in the process. West Ham is a desperate side and playing at home. A breakout seems logical given the daunting schedule they just faced, which included matches w/ Liverpool, Man City & Leicester City. At the same time, the Saints have only drawn a blank once in 13 games in all competitions and that was away to Liverpool. 10* Over West Ham/Southampton

7* Brazil (9:00 ET): This battle of South American powerhouses (pun intended!) takes place in Miami. The key story is the return of Neymar for the Brazilian side as he'll take to the pitch for the first time in three months. He'd sprained his ankle back on June 5th, which was before his country went out and won the Copa America tournament. Then there was the summer-long drama between PSG and Barcelona failing to come to a deal for his rights. With Neymar back in the fold, expect Selecao to emerge victorious. 

"La Cafeteros" are 8th in the World (Brazil is #2), but will be without their best two players: James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao. With Neymar returning for Brazil, this is quite the turn of events for the Colombians. This is a side that went unbeaten in Group Play in the Copa America. However, two of those wins came against Qatar and Paraguay. Then they were eliminated in the first round of the knockout stage (penalty kicks) by Chile. They've lost only once inside of 90 minutes in their L11 matches. But scoring will be a problem without the two key players. They scored only four goals in four matches in Copa America. 

Brazil has lost just one time in the last 32 matches, a quarterfinal loss to Belgium (#1 ranked side in the world) in LY's World Cup. They enter Friday on a 16-match win streak. They've lost only three times to Colombia in the last 31 head to head matchups. Not only is Neymar back, so is Vinicius Junior, who missed Copa America as well. Again, Brazil still won that Tournament despite missing the two stars. Since current manager Tite took over, Selecao has conceded just 10 times in 42 matches and also kept seven clean sheets in the last eight tries. 7* Brazil

10* Mexico (9:00 ET): I think it's great to be able to grab Mexico at "plus money" for Sunday's Gold Cup Final against the United States. This is the final pairing almost everyone had hoped for and expected. It takes place at Soldier Field in Chicago. This is the fifth time these teams have met in the Gold Cup Final. Mexico holds a 4-2 head to head advantage in all previous Gold Cup encounters. They have outscored the U.S. 138-80 all-time head to head w/ a decided 34-19-15 edge in results. They are the play Sunday night

Mexico has needed more than 90 minutes to advance past the last two stages, which I think is what is giving us such great value here on El Tri. In the quarterfinals, they had to go to penalty kicks to beat Costa Rica and the semis vs. upstart Haiti saw them score the game's lone goal in the 93rd minutes. So it's been a harrowing road to get here, but I would not go underestimating this side. Eight different players have found the back of the net for them in this tournament.

The U.S. has gotten exemplary play out of Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, who have combined to score five of the team's 13 goals so far. This is a young American team w/ many of the players taking part in the Gold Cup (and this rivalry vs. Mexico) for the very first time. After being held scoreless for 90 minutes in each of the last two rounds, I look for El Tri to "break out" in this final game. 10* Mexico

8* Genoa FC (12:00 ET): With two matches left, Genoa is hoping to avoid relegation. They're one point clear currently and do not exactly have the most challenging remaining schedule. But in order to feel better about their chances of survival, they'll need to do something they have not done since March 17th and that's win. They are 0-5-3 the L8 matches, including a 2-1 loss last week to an Atalanta side that was hungry for securing a Champions League spot. I feel this play sets up very similar to our play in the Bundesliga two weeks ago (on Bayer Leverkusen) in that we will have the far more motivated side. 

Currently 12th in the table, Cagliari has essentially nothing to play for these next two weeks, which is a dangerous place to be in. Recently, they were in the news for all the wrong reasons as their fans were caught making racist chants at several Juventus players. This is not exactly a side in fine form either as they've won just twice in their last seven matches, including three consecutive losses. With no fear of relegation and no hope of Champions League qualification, I see no reason to expect much from Cagliari on Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation on the Genoa side is that they'll be taking the pitch w/ some revenge on their mind for a 1-0 defeat back on December 26th. The lone goal was scored in stoppage time, right before halftime. I mentioned earlier that Genoa has not won since March 17th. Well, the side they beat that day was Juventus, who happens to be atop the Serie A table. Since then, there's been some bad luck, such as missing a stoppage time PK two weeks ago vs. AS Roma. But the bottom line here is Genoa has a very similar goal differential to Cagliari, so don't be fooled by the respective positions in the table. 8* Genoa FC

8* Bayer Leverkusen (12:00 ET): This sets up as a key game as far as finishing in the top four goes. Eintracht Frankfurt currently holds the fourth position in the table w/ 54 points, but Bayer Leverkusen is right behind in 6th w/ 51 points. The top three teams have really separated themselves. Despite being two spots lower in the table, Bayer Leverkusen actually has one more win than Eintracht Frankfurt (16 to 15). They just happen to have five more losses (also have fewest # of draws). At home, I like Bayer to make a statement Sunday. 

The fact Frankfurt is in the position it's in is a story unto itself. There was a time where this club seemed more likely to be destined for relegation than the Europa League Final. Speaking of the Europa League, this match comes smack dab in the middle of Frankfurt's two semifinal legs vs. Chelsea, so Bundesliga play (against a hungry team) really couldn't come at a worse time for them right now. They just drew Chelsea 1-1 on Thursday, giving the opposition a leg up because it managed to score an away goal. Now its back to league play where they've collected only two points in the L3 fixtures. 

There are no such distractions here for Bayer Leverkusen, only three league matches left to try and get into the top four or preserve their current status in the top six. Die Werkself is in fine form right now having won its last three matches while conceding only once. They found the back of the net four times against FC Augsburg on April 26th and have been off since, so they're definitely fresher coming into Sunday. This is just a terrible spot for Eintracht being sandwiched in between the two matches w/ Chelsea that will determine one of the Europa League finalists. For Bayer Leverkusen, the total focus is on the table and being victorious on Sunday. They'll do so. 8* Bayer Leverkusen

10* France (11:00 AM ET): Let's give Croatia a ton of credit. They have had to win three consecutive matches in extra time (two via penalty kicks) just to get to their first Cup final since becoming an independent nation. The last one, where I offered my endorsement, saw them come from behind to upset England. This team has not tasted defeat here in Russia and enters Sunday have been beaten only one time (2-0 by Brazil in an Int'l Friendly) since March. But here's where reality sets in. They are up against a clearly superior side and that has now played an entire 90 minutes LESS of football in Russia (add up Croatia's three games of extra time). Nevermind the fact France had an extra day to prepare for Sunday's final anyway. Just like in 1998, Les Bleus will win the World Cup and they'll do so inside of 90 minutes (plus injury time). 

France does have one draw in its six matches in this World Cup, but that was a meaningless affair at the end of the Group Stage vs. Denmark. Incredibly, they have kept a clean sheet in four of the last five matches and doing so again here would not really surprise me. The only real time Les Bleus has been in trouble in this tournament was when they briefly trailed Argentina 2-1 in the Rd of 16. But even then, they quickly stormed back w/ three goals of their own in a 10-minute span to seize back control. They've since blanked both Uruguay & Belgium, two fine sides that are better than any opponent Croatia has faced so far. 

In handicapping this matchup, the fact Croatia has had to play an extra 90 minutes of football obviously looms large. It hasn't caught up w/ them yet, but tired legs could start to show here at the most inopportune time. Consider that no team EVER has won three straight WC matches in extra time. Given the string of clean sheets, it's readily apparent that France's goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris, is in top form right now. I see it being very difficult for Croatia to get one past him. As for Croatia, they've conceded at least once in four straight matches. I know they were the host country, but not being able to put away Russia inside 90 mins wasn't exactly inspiring. I still took them against England (plus the 0.5) feeling that The Three Lions were being vastly overrated in the spot, but that simply isn't the case for France here. 10* France

8* Belgium (10:00 AM ET): By its very definition, any consolation game is going to find its participants in a tough spot emotionally. Such is certainly the case for the 3rd place game Saturday in the World Cup when England meets Belgium. England thought it was in the driver's seat (and they were) after scoring quickly against Croatia in Wednesday's semifinal. But from that point on, they were steadily outplayed and ended up losing in extra time. Belgium has its "Golden Generation," but that proved not to be enough against France as they fell 1-0 in the first semifinal (Tuesday). While 3rd place games traditionally feature a higher average of goals per game than most WC matches (that's why O/U line is so high here), I think the smarter and safer play is on Belgium Saturday. 

These teams are no strangers to one another. They, in fact, played in the final game of the Group Stage w/ Belgium prevailing 1-0. Now, from a handicapping perspective, it's tough to ascertain much from that match. Neither side was particularly motivated (both had already clinched spots in the Rd of 16) and there was a pretty clear case that the LOSER would end up in the easier side of the bracket. It all ended up being a moot point obviously, but I think what is interesting is that Belgium still won despite not really putting its best foot forward. Granted, the respective Starting XI's were much different than what we'll presumably see here. But I don't think there's any denying that Belgium was the more talented side two weeks ago and the same holds true today. 

Of the two sides here, I believe England will find it harder to shake the disappointment of losing in the semifinals. They were ahead of Croatia for 60+ minutes, only to lose in extra time (game-winning goal scored in the 109th minute). Belgium was largely outplayed by France and thus could (i.e. should) be looking to make up for that. There's also the matter of that they have had an extra day of rest coming into this third place game. While neither side is really looking forward to playing this game, I think Belgium will simply be more motivated in addition to being more talented. "We want to win. When you finish a tournament you carry over the feeling of the last game. We know that," said coach Roberto Martinez. "We don't want to take anything but a positive feeling out of the World Cup. Tomorrow's game would help a lot towards achieving that." 8* Belgium 

10* Croatia +0.5 (2:00 ET): As I said in my previous analysis, it's looking more and more like "the year" for England. I took The Three Lions in the quarterfinals when they blanked Sweden, 2-0, arguably their finest performance of this tournament to date. There's a real irony to the fact it was their lone loss (1-0 to Belgium) that set them up so well in this - clearly - weaker half of the draw. But make no mistake about it, their semifinal opponent - Croatia - is no pushover. Sure, it has taken penalty kicks for the Blazers to advance each of the last two rounds (over Denmark, then Russia). That left me unhappy as I was on them both times. But remember that it took PK's for England to get by Colombia as well in the Rd of 16. I see an even match here and Croatia will do no worse than a draw after 90 mins.

A lot is being made of the extra football Croatia has had to play just to get here. But the reality is that they've played only 30 mins more than their English counterparts. I view that as a non-factor. More intriguing to me is how England handles its new role of the hunted (as opposed to being the hunter). They performed quite well against Sweden, their 1st match of the tournament where they did not concede. At the same time, it was also the first match where Harry Kane failed to find the back of the net. However, this is England's first trip to the World Cup semis in 28 years. The pressure is squarely on them Wednesday and I expect them to play a bit cautious.

Croatia has scored 10 goals in the tournament, just one fewer than England. They've also been less reliant on set pieces. They clearly have the edge in the midfield as well, where led by Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, they may be as talented as any team in the entire draw. Also keep in mind that 6 of England's 11 goals scored in this tournament came against a lousy Panama side. Croatia is unbeaten in its last six matches overall. They will not go down easily and I feel England is overvalued in this particular spot. 10* Croatia