This is a 10* on the UNDER

We’ve got an outstanding pitchers duel on tap for the Cardinals-Brewers finale Thursday afternoon. The undefeated Jack Flaherty (6-0, 7-0 TSR) will be opposed by Corbin Burnes, who has a 1.53 ERA and 0.546 WHIP in five starts. So runs should be at a premium in this one. Under certainly seems like the way to go as Flaherty has allowed one or zero runs in four of his previous six starts. Burnes, despite a 2-3 team start record, has been even better than Flaherty this season. Prior to his last start, which was on 4/28, he had given up only one run on eight hits. He’s been out for two weeks due to COVID-19 and perhaps that’s why he struggled against Miami his last time starting. Burnes has a 49-0 strikeout to walk ratio, which is just incredible and should get back to his dominant ways today. When he pitched against St. Louis earlier in the year, he allowed just one hit. In four of Burnes’ five starts, the losing team has been shutout. Flaherty threw seven shutout innings in his last start, giving up three hits. Runs should be very scarce in this one as they’ve been throughout the series. Milwaukee won 4-1 yesterday after losing the opener 6-1. That opener saw St. Louis score five of its six runs in the 11th. They have only nine hits in the series. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Phillies routed the Nationals last night, 6-2, to stay within a game of first place in the NL East. Washington is last in the division with a 13-18 record. The Nats have played fewer games than everyone besides the Mets but a key issue for them has been scoring runs. They are 27th in MLB at 3.6 runs/game and that was actually going into yesterday, so the number is even smaller now. But even though seven of the last eight games have seen them held to three runs or less, the Nats may surprise at the plate tonight as they are set to face Zack Wheeler, whom they’ve had success against in the past. Wheeler is 6-11 all-time vs. Washington with a 4.64 ERA in 20 starts. Wheeler did throw a complete game shutout his last start, but has struggled to find consistency in 2021 as he’s yet to have consecutive quality starts. The Phillies have scored six runs or more in three of the past four games, so we think they can be counted on to score even though they’ve struggled some in the past against Jon Lester. This isn’t the “same old Lester,” however. This will be just his third start of the year after dealing with COVID-19. He’s yet to make it past the fifth. The Over is 4-0 in the Phillies last four games vs. a LH starter and 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a win.  Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

The Mets drew first blood with the Orioles, winning the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday. All five runs were scored in the final three innings. The Mets are giving up just 2.1 runs per game at home, so Baltimore struggling to score last night should not have been a major surprise. Especially with them playing without the DH. It’s not like they are a great offensive team even with the designated hitter in the lineup. They came into Tuesday averaging just 3.9 runs/game. Look for the Orioles to struggle again this afternoon as they face Taijuan Walker, who has been great so far for the Mets with a 5-1 TSR. The team is 3-0 his last three starts with Walker posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Walker allowed just one hit in seven innings the last time he started, which was at St. Louis. His last home start saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The Mets’ old teammate Matt Harvey will start for Baltimore today. While we don’t expect he and the Orioles to win today, Harvey may make it tough on the home team. He has a 1.72 ERA his last three starts and Baltimore pitching has kept opposing hitters to a .208 average on the road (entering yesterday). Play on UNDER

This is a 10* on OVER

Kansas City comes into this series having dropped eight in a row. Six of the losses have been by at least three runs and they’ve been outscored 58-21 over the course of the losing streak. They’ve gone from leading the AL Central to having the second worst run differential in the American League. But if ever there was a team you’d want to see when staring at the opposite dugout, it’s the Tigers. They have the worst run differential and worst overall record in MLB. They did win their last game (on Sunday), but before that it was 18 losses in 21 games. Both of these teams allow more than 5.0 runs/game, so this total seems low. Detroit has gone Over in five straight and has allowed 10 or more runs in four of the last nine games. The Royals have allowed seven or more runs five times during the currently losing streak, including nine in back to back games. The two starting pitchers, Singer for KC and Boyd for Detroit, are actually both decent. But Boyd has a 5.71 ERA in 23 career starts vs. KC, who is his most common opponent. Singer’s last two starts have both gone Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Phillies and Braves wrap up their three game series Sunday night on ESPN. The Phillies hold the 5-3 head to head edge in season battles, but this series is tied at a game apiece after the Braves rallied for an 8-7 win yesterday. Saturday’s game went 12 innings and it was 3-1 Phillies entering the bottom of the ninth. The comeback was well received on this end as we had Atlanta. If you had the Under, that’s a tough break. But tonight is a good chance to get it back as the pitching matchup of Nola-Ynoa should result in very few runs being scored. Nola already has a complete game under his belt this season and is off another quality where he gave up just one run in six innings. His first start of the year came against Atlanta and he allowed just two runs in 6 ⅔ innings there. Ynoa has started six games in 2021 and if you take away one bad effort at Wrigley, he’s allowed just three earned runs in the other five. In three of the six starts, the opponent has scored one run or less. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

After an incredibly putrid offensive stretch - which at one point saw 12 straight games stay Under the total - the Tigers offense finally woke up from its season-long hibernation against Boston earlier this week. They totaled 22 runs in three games, but of course still found a way to lose twice as this is the worst team in baseball right now. As bad as the offense has been in Detroit, the team has allowed 10 or more runs in four of its last seven games. The Tigers entertain the Twins this weekend and we’ve got two terrible starting pitchers on the mound for Friday’s opening game. Matt Shoemaker has a 7.83 ERA and 1.57 WHIP for Minnesota while Tarik Skubal has a 7.16 ERA and 1.653 WHIP for Detroit. Shoemaker gave up nine runs in his last start. Skubal allowed three home runs in his, lasting only three innings. That was the second time in three starts Skubal allowed three home runs. Those three starts combine for just 11 innings. The Tigers are 4-0 Over in Skubal starts and the Twins are 4-1 Over in Shoemaker starts. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

The Braves are looking to complete a three-game sweep this afternoon in the Nation’s Capital. This series is obviously going a lot better than the weekend did vs. Toronto where they lost three times. Unfortunately, it’s tough to be confident in Drew Smyly to get the job done. Smyly, who gets the nod Thursday for Atlanta, has an 0-4 team start record to go along with an 8.05 ERA. A 1.526 WHIP isn’t good either and these numbers are only getting worse with Smyly allowing five or more runs in each of his last three starts. It’s certainly fair to say that the southpaw is a major reason why Atlanta is one of six teams to be allowing at least 5.0 runs/game this year. While Washington hasn’t been putting a ton of runs on the board lately, they are hitting .263 the last seven games. They were 0 for 6 with RISP and left seven men on base yesterday. Jon Lester gets his second start for the Nationals after being a part of the team’s COVID-19 outbreak at the start of the season. He didn’t give up any runs his first time out, but also only had one strikeout in five innings. Look for him to struggle some here. Smyly has allowed eight home runs in the last three starts. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Mets and Phillies wrap up a three-game series on “Sunday Night Baseball” and we feel there will be no shortage of runs in this rubber match. The first two games weren’t particularly high-scoring as the Phillies won 2-1 Friday and the Mets 5-4 on Saturday. No team has really distinguished itself in the NL East thus far. Everybody is at least a game below .500. Mets lefty David Peterson looks to be a potential liability for his team in this one, based on his first two starts on the road. He allowed six runs in both of them and one took place here in the City of Brotherly Love. After giving up two home runs, Peterson was gone after four innings and the Mets went on to lose 8-2 to the Phillies that day. It was even worse when Peterson started at Wrigley Field as he was gone after 3 ⅓ and the Mets lost that one 16-4. Zach Eflin will go for Philadelphia and his previous starts against the Mets haven’t gone all that well. He has a 5.24 ERA the 11 times he’s faced them. Eflin allowed five runs in his last start. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

The Dodgers and Brewers have two of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Both are among the top five in runs allowed per game. We’ve seen this play out in the first two games of this series with the Brewers winning 2-1 and 3-1. Having lost seven of their last nine, it’s fair to say the Dodgers are in a slump right now. Going back to 2019, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen the Under cash. But not tonight, even with two solid starters going. Brandon Woodruff for Milwaukee has made four straight quality starts, but three of them were against the same opponent (Cubs). He has a 9.39 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Dustin May pitched great Sunday night, but the game still went Over because of the bullpen. Neither bullpen has been great so far. Unless both starters completely dominate, we see this one going Over. The Dodgers’ lineup is too talented to continue struggling like this. Milwaukee has homered in four straight games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

It’s not often that you can sweep a series when scoring only three runs. But that’s what Boston did in two games with the Mets. Now they were not as fortunate when they scored only one run in the series opener vs. Texas. The Rangers were 4-1 winners Friday as Boston’s hitters seem to be mired in a real slump. That’s just four runs in the last three games for them. But they still are averaging 5.1 runs/game when facing right handed starters. They are up against a righty tonight in Kohei Arihara, who just so happens to be off a bad start. The White Sox scored five times off him in just two innings. But Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi also allowed five runs in his last start. He’s also given up nine in the last two starts. There have been only two games in the last eight where the Rangers failed to score at least four runs. Neither starter was throwing many strikes in those last starts and Arihara may have been tipping pitches. Over is 4-1 for Texas if they allowed two runs or less last game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Minnesota is off to its worst start in years and Cleveland will be looking to sweep them today. But finishing the sweep may prove difficult with Logan Allen pitching. Allen has a 6.91 ERA in four starts with the last two being both brief and ugly. The second inning was something Allen couldn’t escape against either the Yankees or Reds as he’s allowed nine runs total in his last 4 ⅓ innings of work. The good thing for the Indians is they are hitting right now. Particularly Franmil Reyes, who is 12 for 27 on the current homestand. He hit a pair of homers in yesterday’s 7-4 win. Also, Jose Ramirez is 8 for his last 21 and has homered in both games of this series. Losers of 13 of their last 15 games, the Twins turn to J.A. Happ on Wednesday. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth for us in the last start. (Twins were our 10* Interleague Game of the Month that day). But that was also against the Pirates. Expect Happ to struggle a bit today facing a lineup that has produced 12 runs the last two games. Happ had not made it past the fifth inning in any of his previous starts to the last one. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Things have gotten bad in a hurry for the Tigers, who have lost 10 of 11 and five in a row. They went down 3-2 yesterday afternoon at the hands of Kansas City and that marked the ninth time in the past 10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The job will get no easier Tuesday as the Tigers head to Chicago to face the White Sox. Winners of six of their past seven games, the White Sox are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas and are massive favorites today. While Detroit’s offense has been really bad and a win is highly unlikely, they should be able to break out of their slump a bit as Lucas Giolito hasn’t been very good for Chicago in 2021. Well, he was versus vs. Cleveland on 4/13, but then his last start saw him surrender eight runs in the first inning and it was over from three. We like this game to go Over as well with the White Sox averaging 5.6 runs over the last seven games. They have a .312 team batting average in those seven games as well. Starting for the Tigers will be Jose Urena, who has an 0-4 team start record due in large part to a lack of run support. But his offense HAS to break through sooner or later as they left 23 runners on base Monday vs. Kansas City. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Marlins won 3-0 yesterday, but six of their last nine games have seen eight or more total runs scored. They average 6.0 runs per game when they take their act out on the road. That’s the highest average for road games among National League teams. The average will be put to the test this evening when they visit San Francisco, who isn’t giving up many runs at home this year. These teams played a three-game series in Miami last weekend where the Giants were held to just one run in two of the games. One was a win (1-0 obviously) and the other a loss (4-1). The middle game, won by the Marlins, ended up being 7-6. We look for something more along the lines of that one tonight. San Francisco has put 15 runs on the board in just the last two games and will get a second crack at Daniel Castano after only managing one run and three hits off him last week. More familiarity with the opposing pitcher should lead to a higher success rate at the plate, plus this game is in their ballpark. Miami will also be seeing Aaron Sanchez for a second time. They scored just one run off him the first time, but that was also the game that ended up 7-6. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

We told you to take the Angels -1.5 yesterday and they came through with a 6-2 victory against the Rangers. Shohei Ohtani threw four shutout innings, while at the plate both Trout and Pujols homered. Texas had just five hits as their offense continues to struggle. They did score six times on Monday, but five of those runs came in one inning, which matched their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings. So take away that one big inning and this lineup has scored just seven times in 41 innings. But they should break out today facing Jose Quintana, who gave up seven runs in just 1 ⅔ innings against Toronto on April 10th. The result was a 15-1 loss. His first start of 2021, resulted in a 7-6 win for the Angels, but Quintana allowed four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Over is obviously 2-0 in Quintana starts. Texas starter Mike Foltynewicz is 3-0 Under, but he’s also 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up five runs his last start and has already allowed five home runs. This should be a high-scoring AL West battle. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The White Sox and Red Sox finish up a four-game series early Monday, in the traditional early start time to help celebrate Patriots’ Day. (Normally, the Boston Marathon would be run today, but that’s been pushed back to October due to the pandemic). The teams played two on Sunday with the White Sox winning 3-2 and 5-1. Both of those were seven-inning affairs with MLB’s new rules in place for doubleheaders. Going back to Saturday, the Red Sox won the opener 7-4. We’re back to nine innings today and we like the Over. Lucas Giolito starts for Chicago. He’s been quite effective so far, including seven shutout innings (in a losing effort) his last trip to the mound. But Boston came into yesterday averaging nearly 6.0 runs/game and 6.7 against right-handed starters. Giolito has given up seven runs in 17 previous innings vs. the Red Sox. The starter for the home team will be Nathan Eovaldi, who is similarly off to a great start to 2021. But he has a 5.59 ERA vs. the White Sox, who were averaging 5.7 runs/game on the road going into Sunday. Watch the line as Boston is 6-1 Over its last seven as home underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Blue Jays and Royals played a doubleheader on Saturday. Both teams got a win and both games stayed Under. Toronto won the first, 5-1, before KC came back with a 3-2 win of their own. Keep in mind those were only seven inning games per MLB’s “new” rules. We’re set to play a full nine today and look for more runs to be scored as a result. The Jays got a really strong start from Steven Matz in Game 1 yesterday. But their starter for Sunday, Robbie Ray, figures to be less impressive. Ray and Royals starter Brad Singer were both supposed to go Friday before the rain interfered. Singer has had a poor start to the year with a 6.48 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The second game yesterday is the only time in the last five games that Toronto didn’t score five or more runs. Kansas City averages 5.7 runs per game at home, but also gives up 5.1. Don’t forget that Thursday’s game was a 7-5 final (KC won). We expect something along those lines here. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Cubs hitting, or should we say “lack thereof,” has been dreadful so far. As a team, they are batting .163. No other team in the National League strikes out at a higher rate and no team in all of MLB scores fewer runs per game. They are averaging fewer than five hits per game and off a shutout loss (7-0) at the hands of Milwaukee. At home things are even more dire as they have hit just .124 in six games! But a visit from the Braves and the afternoon Wrigley wind should lead to a change in things on Friday. Atlanta’s last seven games have averaged just over 12 runs with them scoring and allowing 6.0 per. Six of those seven games went Over the total including each of the last three. Braves starter Drew Smyly has struggled with the home run ball thus far, allowing three in his two starts and if the wind is blowing out today that should continue to be a problem. The only other time Smyly faced the Cubs, he allowed a pair of home runs. Cubs starter Davies has allowed just one HR so far, but he gave up seven runs while getting only five outs in his last start. We don’t like his chances against Ronald Acuna Jr, who leads MLB with seven home runs. This one goes Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Indians weren’t just beaten 8-0 last night by the White Sox. They were no-hit by Carlos Rondon, the second no-no we’ve seen so far this season. The only runner Cleveland got on base was Roberto Perez in the ninth and that was after he was hit by an 0-2 slider. It was the second straight shutout in the series as the Indians won 2-0 on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener 4-3. Look for today’s finale to be the highest scoring game of the series. That may seem like an odd prediction based on how both of Thursday’s starters have performed so far in 2021. But Indians starter Civale has only had to face the Tigers - twice. After a six-run first inning last night, it seems like the White Sox should have finished with more runs. Of course, they didn’t need any. Tim Anderson, who has finished top two in batting average each of the last two seasons, will be back in the Sox lineup Thursday. We also think Cleveland can score at least four runs today. That’s how many they scored after the only other game where they were shutout this season. They are also 5-0 Over after allowing five or more runs in their last game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

The Braves have dropped both games to the Marlins so far. The first was one they let get away. They led 3-1 going into the eighth, but then let Miami tie the game up and lost in extras, 5-3. We were happy about that result as we had the Marlins +1.5 after calling it a “tough spot” for Atlanta coming off the controversial loss Sunday night. Last night saw things get really one sided as the Marlins won 14-8. Given the odds for tonight, you’ve gotta think Atlanta is going to break through. We’ll take the Under with Charlie Morton starting as he’s allowed only four runs in 11 innings so far this season. Last night was not only Miami’s season high in both runs and hits, but they also exceeded their total number of runs scored from the previous six games combined. So look for a quiet night at the plate from them. Marlins starter Nick Neidert will have to reduce the number of walks (5) from his first start, but we like the fact he still allowed just one run. This game should resemble Monday not Tuesday and presuming Atlanta is up, they won’t have to bat in the ninth inning. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Since being swept by Baltimore to open the season, the Red Sox have won four straight. Following an off-day, they look to make it two straight over the Orioles here at Camden Yards. Obviously, Thursday’s series opener went much differently than the series at Fenway last week. Boston won 7-3 and has now scored at least six runs in each of its four wins. But Saturday starter Garrett Richards had a terrible first outing vs. the O’s, lasting just two innings while giving up six runs. Baltimore pitching has given up exactly seven runs in three of the last four games. Saturday starter Zimmerman was on the winning end of Richards’ first start, but isn’t likely to pitch as well the second time around. Boston’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They are on an 8-0 Over run after scoring five or more runs the previous game, going back to 2020. The Orioles are 7-3 Over in the second game of a series. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on UNDER

It seems as if the National League East is the consensus choice as the “toughest division in baseball” this season. We don’t expect many runs to be scored in this Phillies-Braves series opener on Friday. Both teams were off Thursday. Philadelphia has opened 4-1 and swept Atlanta at home to start the 2021 season. But the Braves, despite being 2-4, have to like their chances at revenge because they are 42-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons. All three games in the series at Citizens Bank Park last week stayed Under. The most total runs scored in any of the three was five! Philly’s recently completed series with the Mets went much differently as all three games went Over. Tonight’s game features a starting pitching rematch from 4/3 as Zack Wheeler opposes Charlie Morton. Wheeler was masterful in the game last Saturday as he went seven innings and allowed only one hit. He had 10 strikeouts and no walks. Morton wasn’t bad either; he gave up three runs over five innings. But it didn’t matter considering how good Wheeler was and the Phillies won the game 4-0. Look for another low-scoring affair tonight as the Braves are batting just .170 in the early going. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Adding a designated hitter to the Dodgers’ already potent lineup just seems cruel, especially if you’re the 0-5 A’s, who have given up eight or more runs in every game. They gave up a season-high 10 to the Dodgers in last night’s series opener. That was the second time in the last four games LA scored 10 or more runs. They had seven runs on the board through three innings last night. Chris Bassitt has the unenviable task of starting against the Dodgers tonight. While he pitched well in the Spring and on Opening Day, he never faced a lineup quite like this one. Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers and while you may think that means a long day for the Oakland hitters, guess again as they got him for nine runs in a Spring Training game. Kershaw also allowed six runs and 10 hits in his first start of 2021 and that was without giving up a home run. Look for the bevy of runs scored in A’s games to continue on Tuesday. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

St. Louis was 4-1 winner in Monday’s series opener. That victory squared their season record away at 2-2. Miami is 1-3 and save for a 12-run effort on Sunday, they haven’t done a whole lot of scoring. The other three games have seen them score a total of five runs and four of those were in one game. Let’s not forget that last year’s playoff run ended with back to back shutout losses. So we’ve got little confidence in the Marlins lineup heading into Tuesday and really the same is true for the Cardinals. While the Redbirds’ first three games all went Over, they didn’t have a ton of hits. They’ve scored 22 runs in four games, but the fact they have only 27 hits (7 or fewer each of the L3 games) makes that seem a bit fortuitous. Sandy Alcantara will be the starter for Miami on Tuesday. He threw six shutout innings on Opening Day and allowed only two hits. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. St. Louis will send John Gant to the bump. Since he’s been used as a reliever the past two seasons, Gant won’t be in there for too long. But regardless, Miami hasn’t shown they are any real threat at the plate. The Under is 14-3 in the Marlins’ last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. They’ve scored a total of one run in the two games this season. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

These were the two playoff teams from the American League West a season ago. Oakland took home the pennant with a 36-24 WL record. But Houston was the one who made it to the ALCS, even though they had a sub-.500 regular season record. That postseason run included a 3-1 series win over the A’s in the LDS. That was strange as Oakland really dominated the regular season series, winning 7 of 10 with all three losses coming in seven inning games. We look for Opening Day to be a relatively high-scoring affair. Three of those four playoff games saw 15 or more total runs scored. Houston is going to have a bounce back year at the plate. Two years ago, they were tops in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS. Zack Greinke faced Oakland three three times last year. He allowed four runs in two of those starts. The A’s will counter with Bassitt, who allowed two home runs in last year’s LDS, same as Greinke did in his start that series. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is the best starting pitching matchup we’ve had thus far in the World Series as Walker Buehler goes for the Dodgers and Charlie Morton goes for the Rays. Buehler threw six scoreless innings the last time we saw him and has given up just four runs total his last five starts. He’s allowed just 16 hits during that time and while there have been some issues with control (not the last start), perhaps the most important thing is he’s given up just two home runs this postseason. The Rays are getting an irregularly high amount of their runs from the long ball, which just isn’t sustainable. The Under is 5-0 in Buehler’s previous five starts. Morton has been even hotter than Buehler, if you can believe it. In the playoffs, Morton has a 0.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He didn’t allow runs in either start in the ALCS. Game 2 was Tampa Bay’s highest scoring game since Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees. They have scored four or more in back to back games only one time in the playoffs and that was Games 3-4 of that series with the Yankees. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times they’ve been off a win. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Tampa Bay has done all the “little things” right in taking a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 lead in this year’s ALCS. Last night, it was their defense that carried them to a 5-2 victory. Houston is hitting the ball hard in this series. The ball just keeps landing in the gloves of the Rays fielders. They’ve also had MORE hits in the series compared to the Rays. But none of that matters now. We do think the Astros, who have been held to just five runs in three games, are going to score more in Game 4. Whether it’s enough to keep the series going remains to be seen. Zack Greinke will start tonight for Houston. He’s not lasted over five innings in any of his last five times out and has given up at least three runs in four of those five outings. He allowed two homers in the LDS start vs. Oakland. Tyler Glasnow will start here for the Rays. He has an 11-0 TSR his L11 starts, so they couldn’t have asked for a better scenario as they look to advance to the World Series. However, be aware that Glasnow only made it through 2 ⅓ innings his last time out and did give up four runs in his first of the two LDS starts. We know the first three games all stayed Under, but Game 4 should sneak Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Houston took an early 1-0 lead in Game 1, but did not score after the first inning. As a result, they dropped Game 1 by a score of 2-1. That was still a winner for us, mind you. We had the Astros +1.5. Two of the game's three runs came on solo HRs - Jose Altuve for the Astros and Randy Arozarena for the Rays. We don’t anticipate much scoring taking place in Game 2 either. Consider that Tampa Bay has just 12 hits - total - its last three games. All three runs they’ve scored in the last two games have been solo shots. So they’re not doing much scoring otherwise. Houston’s Game 2 starter Lance McCullers did have a bit of a rough go in the LDS vs. Oakland, but prior to that hadn’t allowed a single earned run over his previous three starts. The three HR’s he allowed to the A’s was more than he gave up in his previous 8 starts combined. Tampa’s Charlie Morton has allowed just 1 HR in his L7 starts and only 4 all year. He’s yet to allow multiple HR in the same start. Two starters that are good at preventing the long ball should help keep this one Under the total rather easily. Under is 8-1-1 the Rays’ L10 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The A’s got a pretty tough first round draw here with the White Sox, who - despite finishing as the 7-seed - were tied for the best run differential (+60) in the American League. Not only have these teams never met in the postseason, they didn’t meet all in 2020. We’ve got Lucas Giolito starting for the White Sox and Jesus Luzardo starting for the A’s in Game 1. Oakland home games were pretty low scoring in 2020 (averaged just 7.3 runs/game) but this is a low total and the White Sox average 5.1 runs/game. That was second most in the American League and they were second in slugging as well. Chicago’s last four regular season games went Over with them allowing 10 twice. None of those were with Giolito on the mound, but we’ve got to point out the fact he’s allowed at least one home run in four of his last five starts. Luzardo got this start because he’s been so good at home, but he too had a problem with the long ball of late. Luzardo also got to pitch against a lot of weak teams in the regular season. San Diego was one of the few top-level offensive teams he faced and he gave up four runs in 4 ⅔. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

With the Dodgers having wrapped up their 8th consecutive NL West pennant the night before, they got “caught with their pants down” early last night against Oakland. They trailed 3-0 after one inning, but were still able to rally and tie the game up 4-4 heading into the ninth. But a 2-run HR by Roman Laureano in the 9th won it for Oakland. We look for less scoring in tonight’s game, the finale between two division champs. Michael Fiers starts for the Athletics. He’s done an excellent job the first time through the batting order as his ERA in the first two innings of a game is just 0.90. He also holds opposing hitters to a .145 average in those first two innings. The A’s have won more times with Fiers on the mound than any other starter this season. Fiers has also gone 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA in five career starts vs. the Dodgers. He’ll be opposed by Walker Buehler, who is coming off the DL. He’s 6-1 with a 1.01 WHIP this season. Two solid pitchers here. Only two of the A’s previous eight games have seen more than nine total runs scored. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Under is not something you normally think about taking at Coors Field. But with the Rockies’ recent offensive struggles and the A’s being in a bit of bind, Under in the route we’re going in tonight’s series opener. Colorado has topped five runs only one time in its last six games. That was here at home, but so were the last two games which saw them score just five runs total. Tonight they are facing a red hot pitcher in Sean Manaea, who’s won his last four starts while posting a 1.61 ERA. Manaea has issued only one walk during that time and has allowed only six runs in 22 ⅓ (two runs were unearned). But the A’s are likely going to have to ride Manaea in this one after playing 10 games in 7 days including a doubleheader vs. Seattle yesterday. Injuries have also hit the everyday lineup hard as 3B Chapman’s season is over and OF Piscotty sprained his knee yesterday. The Under is 22-5-1 in the A’s last 28 road games with a total of 11.0 or higher. Rockies starter Senzatela actually has pretty good numbers here at home and should keep Oakland in check. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

Colorado is having all sorts of trouble with San Diego this year. The last four times these NL West rivals have met, it has been the Padres coming out on top. The Rockies have managed a grand total of seven runs in those four losses, five of those coming last night. Meanwhile, SD has twice scored double digit runs on Rockies pitching, including 14 yesterday. The Padres continue to pace all of MLB with 253 runs scored in 44 games. They should finish above their 5.7 runs/game average again tonight as they face Senzatela, who is 6-2 Over in his eight starts for the Rockies. Senzatela does have two really good starts under his belt vs. the Padres, but the third time should be the charm for the best offense in baseball. San Diego starter Davies has mostly been lights out so far, but has given up seven runs in two starts vs. Colorado. Consider that in the nine head to head meetings between Colorado & San Diego this year, the winning team has scored at least six runs. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Dodgers were held to just two runs on Saturday and lost to the Rockies. But you can’t keep this lineup down for long as LA has scored 230 runs in 41 games, which is second most in all of baseball. They exploded for 10 runs in the series opener and Rockies pitching has really struggled mightily this last week or so. Four different times in their last eight games, Colorado has allowed 10 runs or more. Who can forget the humiliating 23-5 loss they took on the 1st of the month, at the hands of the Giants? So the Dodgers are very much capable of sending this one Over on their own. Especially facing Castellani, who has a 7.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP his past three starts. In two of those three starts, the Rockies opponent has ended up scoring 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 when Dodgers’ starter Urias is pitching including 3-0 L3. There have been no fewer than nine total runs scored in all of his starts in 2020. It was a low-scoring game yesterday, but that won’t be the case here in this unusually late Sunday start. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Angels definitely can’t be trusted to get the job done, even in this price range, but we can expect a high-scoring game against the Giants Tuesday afternoon. LA’s last five games have all gone Over with 11 or more total runs scored every time. Thus far, when they’re at home, Angels’ games have averaged 12.3 runs/game. The Giants come in having allowed 7.7 runs/game over their last seven contests, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. They are allowing 6.3 runs/game for the season. While the Angels do have their best pitcher - Dylan Bundy - going tonight, they and the Giants both have terrible bullpens. In just the last five games, the Giants’ pen has gone 0-4 with a 12.19 ERA and has given up 29 runs in 20 ⅓ innings. Angels’ relievers aren’t much better with a near identical home ERA/WHIP to what the Giants have on the road. Trevor Cahill starts today for SF. This is his 1st start of the year after a fingernail issue. Expect him to struggle. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on OVER

Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Nationals and Mets face off early Thursday afternoon in what will be the finale of a four-game series. Washington won the first two games, 16-4 and 2-1, but yesterday was New York’s turn to put some runs on the board as they took home an 11-6 ‘W.’ There were seven total runs scored in the first inning of last night’s game, three by the visitors and four more by the home team. We look for more of a “pitcher’s duel” today. The Nats numbers against lefties are BAD as they are hitting just .207 in games where they face a starter that’s a southpaw and averaging 1.9 runs/game. Here they are up against David Peterson whose three starts have been respectable to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. At the same time, the Mets offensive numbers are bad. They came into yesterday scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home. Austin Voth has two solid efforts under his belt for Washington as he’s allowed only three runs in 10 innings. Both starts stayed Under the total. In six of their last 11 games, the Nationals have scored three runs or fewer. Same for the Mets. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

The Giants are being rather coy with their starting pitching, often not naming the official starter until late in the day. Drew Smyly will end up getting the baseball on Saturday. He was okay in his first outing, only giving up a run in 3 ⅓ innings. Even more impressive is that the Giants won the game 3-1 as a +260 underdog against the Dodgers. What Smyly and the Giants are up against tonight isn’t nearly as formidable. Texas has scored 2 or fewer runs in all but one of its games. But don’t look for San Fran to score nine runs again as they did last night. They’ll face Jordan Lyles, who ended 2019 with an 8-0 TSR over his final eight starts. In addition, he threw two hitless innings of relief on Tuesday. 8* on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Rockies started the season by taking two of three in Texas. They held the Rangers to a grand total of five runs in the three games and there was some chatter about whether or not that had something to do with the new ballpark in Arlington. But then the Rockies went to Oakland and won both games while allowing only four runs total. How much this pitching staff has actually improved remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. We’re likely about to see a dramatic turn as the team plays at home for the first time in 2020. Coors Field is a “whole different ball game” as the Rockies allowed 6.7 runs/game here in 2019. On the bright side, they also scored 6.2, which led all of baseball. Their opponent this weekend is San Diego, a team that has opened 5-2 and scored 44 runs (leads league in those seven games. We don’t expect the Padres to slow down a bit offensively in this series,  Starters Jon Gray and Garrett Richards will not be able to contain the respective offenses here. 10* on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

The Rockies didn’t do a ton of scoring in Texas during the 1st series of the young season. In fact, all three games stayed Under as they managed just eight runs total. But the bigger story was their pitching, which held the Rangers to only five runs. As a result, Colorado won two of the three games. That was a new stadium the Rockies were playing in and it remains to be seen if they can keep up that level of pitching prowess as they move to Oakland Tuesday. The A’s posted a 3-0 shutout here yesterday, making it a 3-1 start for them. The A’s bullpen was really good against the Angels, but may not be able to keep that up vs. a NL team playing with a DH. Daniel Mengden had a 4.94 ERA at home last year and only one of the five starts was a quality one. Colorado starter Senzatela may have bigger problems as his ERA was 7.29 away from home in 2019. We “smell” an Over here as neither pitching staff is likely to perform as well as they did over the weekend. 10* on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

With no fans in attendance, the Astros don’t have to worry about being booed out of stadiums. Not that such a thing would have transpired yesterday. They were at home and beat the Seattle Mariners as expected, 8-2. The Astros went 18-1 against the Mariners this year so they’re expecting to sweep this first start of the season. Of course, they’ll be priced accordingly. So look at the total instead. Seattle has scored two or fewer runs 8 of the last 10 meetings with the ‘Stros. We can see that trend continuing here. Both runs yesterday came on solo home runs. On the other hand, Houston’s five-run inning that propelled them to victory last night likely won’t be replicated here. Lance McCullers will likely shut down the weak Mariners lineup while Seattle starter Taijuan Walker should pitch okay. Another issue for the Mariners last night was a sloppy defense. Assuming they clean up the fielding, the Astros won’t be getting as many chances at the plate.The Under is 13-5 the past 18 times when Seattle’s opponent scored 5 or more in its last game. 10* UNDER SEATTLE/HOUSTON

AAA

PICK IS FOR TOMORROW'S GAME

THis is a 10* on the UNDER

While all the focus remains on the fact the home team is 0-6, the only game to go Under in this World Series was Game 3 in Washington and that was with the pitchers having to come up to bat. But with the stakes at their highest and two starters the caliber of Scherzer and Greinke going in Game 7, we're calling for a low-scoring game. Greinke's only WS start was Game 3 and he held the Nationals to one run in 4 2/3 IP. Tonight marks just the second time Greinke has started at home in these playoffs. The first was his best outing of the postseason as he went six innings and held the Yankees to three runs. His home ERA and WHIP for the year are 3.61 and 1.055 respectively. But Grienke isn't the only former Cy Young winner pitching tonight. Scherzer, who was scratched from Game 5 due to neck spasms, makes it the first ever WS Game 7 where two former Cy Youngs are starting. Assuming Scherzer is okay, he too should pitch well here. He has a 2.49 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 road starts. His last three starts overall have yielded a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Really, we shouldn't have to delve too deep into how good the two starters here truly are. It's surprising that the Over is 5-1 in this series considering the home team has averaged just 2.0 runs/game! Under is 6-1 last seven times Grienke has started on four days rest. Under is also 9-2 Scherzer's last 11 Interleague starts. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The road team is 3-0 in this World Series. The Over won in Games 1 and 2. The Under came in for Game 3. If you’re looking for a pattern with the total, the two Overs hit in the American League park (pitchers don’t have to bat) while the Under hit in a National League park (pitchers have to come up to bat). Looking at these patterns, you’d expect the home team to win a game eventually. It might happen tonight. But we aren’t willing to bet on it. The Under seems like the right call. While there’s no “ace” on the mound tonight, Pat Corbin has pitched very well for Washington this year, especially when at home. Corbin has a 14-3 TSR here in the Beltway. He also has a 2.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. You have to remember the Houston lineup is not at full strength with the DH out. Urquidy will get the start in Game 4 for the Astros. While this is his first postseason start, he allowed 1 run or less in four of his last five regular season starts. Play UNDER Houston-Washington

AAA

THis is a 9* play on the UNDER

It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massive favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Under is 5-1-1 in Cole’s last seven starts (0.71 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) with just the one Over being the only game where there were more than seven combined runs scored. Houston should feel lucky to have Cole pitching tonight because Washington has Max Scherzer. Scherzer also has a 3-0 TSR in the playoffs to go along with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. For the year, he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. On the road, those numbers slightly improve to 2.43 and 0.91. When Scherzer and those kind of numbers represent the second best starter in a given matchup, the game is probably going Under. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Not many people expected the Rays to extend the Astros this far, but here we are and it's the last League Division Series to be decided. The home team is 4-0 in the series and with Game 5 in Houston, you probably won't find many "takers" on the Rays outside of their own clubhouse. We acknowledge the unlikelihood of the Rays advancing (though we did have them in Game 3), but won't be getting involved with the Astros either due to the current price. We are actually 4-0 in this series having cashed Houston in Game 1, the Under in Game 2, Tampa Bay in Game 3 and the Under in Game 4. Now it's time to play the Over, which may sound strange as Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Astros and we did take the Under in his Game 2 start. As masterful as he was that day and as dominant as he's been throughout the second half, the Astros offense is more than capable of scoring enough on its own to help send this one Over. They average 6.0 runs/game at home for the year. Tampa Bay did score 10 runs in Game 3, six of them against Zack Greinke. So don't rule out the notion of them hitting Cole better tonight than they did in Game 2. Tyler Glasnow is the Game 5 starter for the Rays. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 and gave up two runs. The Over is 5-1 in the Rays past six LDS road games. The Over is also 5-2 in Cole's last seven home starts despite how well he has pitched in those games. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay managed to keep its season going (at least for another day) with a stunning 10-3 win in Game 3. We weren't too surprised as we backed the Rays +1.5 Monday and did call for more offensive than expected. Still, beating Zack Greinke and the Astros by that kind of margin was eye-opening. But the oddsmakers are rightly giving the Rays little chance in Game 4 as the pitching matchup appears to be as one-sided as any we'll see all postseason. Justin Verlander goes for Houston. He started Game 1 and didn't allow a run in seven innings. He only allowed one hit. Verlander is of course on the short list for the AL Cy Young as he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.80 WHIP for the season. After yesterday's offensive explosion, TB should be back to the lack of production at the plate that we saw in both Games 1 and 2. Even with his last three starts all ending up as Overs, the Under remains 22-12 in all Verlander starts this season. The Under had been 10-1 in the Rays' previous 11 home playoff games (before yesterday). The price is obviously too high to play Houston in this matchup, so it's on Diego Castillo and the rest of the Rays staff to limit what the Astros do at the plate. Considering TB allows only 3.8 runs/game at Tropicana Field, something we cited in our Game 3 analysis, we think they are up to that challenge. Play UNDER Houston-Tampa Bay

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We were on the Astros in Game 1, a relatively easy call as they rolled to a 6-2 victory. Justin Verlander did his job by throwing seven shutout innings and Houston led 6-0 by the time they went to the bullpen. Though Tampa Bay did end up scoring twice in the top of the eighth, they were faced with an insurmountable edge. Those two runs that the Rays scored weren't totally insignificant though, pardon the pun, as they did send the game Over the total. Given that the game was still a scoreless tie through four innings, that had to be a heartbreaker for Under bettors. We'll provide them with some much needed relief for Game 2 though as this one should stay Under. The Rays go from facing Verlander to now having to deal w/ Gerritt Cole. That's rough. Cole set team records in the regular season by winning his last 16 decisions and striking out 326 batters. His 2.50 ERA was not only a career-best, but also topped all American League starters this year. So look for the Rays to have another tough night at the plate. If they are to have any chance of winning Game 2, it will be because of their own starter, Blake Snell, last year's Cy Young winner. While it's been awhile since Snell pitched more than three innings (missed two months due to elbow surgery), we've got confidence that he'll pitch relatively well in this spot. The Under is 4-0 in Snell's previous four starts vs. the Astros. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Twins-Yankees

These teams certainly aren't lacking in the run production department. They are the only two teams in baseball history to hit 300+ home runs in a single season. Not coincidentally, they finished 1-2 in overall runs scored this year. The last time they met was late July and not only did all three games go Over the total, all of them saw at minimum 14 runs scored. We know it's now the postseason, but this seems like a really low O/U line for these two clubs. Neither starter really impresses us as Jose Berrios (Twins) has a 4.85 ERA his past seven starts, having given up at least five runs in three of them. James Paxton (Yankees) seemingly got hot down the stretch as the Yankees have won all of his last 11 starts. But his last one saw him have to leave after one inning, so there's concern there. The Over is 8-2 in Paxton's last 10 starts, by the way. Yes, the Yankees have an incredible bullpen, but if the Twins lineup can get to Paxton, that won't be as big of a factor. We figure both teams are going to hit their fair share of home runs in this game and that means the Over is in play. Both sides are clearly capable of putting at least five runs on the board in Game 1. Play OVER Twins-Yankees

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Division winners Atlanta and St. Louis meet in this National League Division Series. This will be their first time playing since May. There were two series between them that took place that month. The Braves took two of three in both. They've got the homefield advantage, which seems important given that virtually every Cardinals starter seems to perform substantially worse on the road. That's something we'll definitely be tracking in this series. Miles Mikolas is the Game 1 starter for St. Louis. He went just 4-8 in 17 road starts during the regular season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. So that you can compare, he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. The one time Mikolas faced the Braves this year, it was at home. He allowed three runs and seven hits, so it's reasonable to expect him to give up more Thursday. Atlanta is going with Dallas Keuchel as its Game 1 starter. While Keuchel's last five starts have all stayed Under, he certainly hasn't pitched well in two of the previous three. In fact, the Braves have lost Keuchel's last three starts with him posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. There are some questions about how well the St. Louis offense will perform in a postseason environment, but the Over is 7-1 their last 8 playoff games. They have also gone Over 41 of the last 65 times they've faced a left-handed starter. The Braves are one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. The Over is 6-1 the last seven times they've hosted St. Louis. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two NL Central teams conclude their seasons in PNC Park this weekend as the Pirates host the Reds. While these are the final games for both sides, they probably feel very different about their respective 2019 seasons. The Reds appear to be a team on the rise, with some strong pitching, as they're going to NOT lose 90+ games for the 1st time since 2014. That said, they've lost the last four games. Pittsburgh has fallen hard this year as they've lost 91 games and will finish last in the division. Their future outlook seems a lot more bleak, though they did just shockingly sweep the Cubs here at home in their last series. The Pirates often do allow a lot of runs, but Cincinnati comes in having scored just 30 in its last 12 contests. For the season, the Reds are bottom six in baseball in runs scored. But they are top eight in runs allowed. Something will have to give with the top Over team (Pittsburgh) facing the top Under team (Cincinnati). Reds starter DeSclafani has a 1.89 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his previous three starts, so that's fairly "on brand." We'll hope that Pirates starter Brault can improve upon his recent efforts thanks to facing a team he held scoreless back in May. Brault does tend to pitch better at home. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Could this end up being a FIVE-game sweep for the Nationals? (Series wraps up tomorrow) That's looking like more and more of a reality after sweeping yesterday's doubleheader with the Phillies. That result officiall put Washington into the playoffs while simultaneously eliminating Philadelphia. That's a huge motivational edge here as the Nationals try and lock down home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game against whichever team (St. Louis or Milwaukee) doesn't win the Central Division. They currently have a one game edge over Milwaukee in that department entering Wednesday when they look to make it four straight over Philly. They've outscored the Phillies 17-8 in the three games so far and what makes this series result all the more sweeter is that it's come against former teammate Bryce Harper. Anibal Sanchez will get the call for tonight's game. While he's pitched well recently, Sanchez has struggled against the Phillies this year. He's faced them four times and is winless with a 4.22 ERA. The Over is 6-2 in Sanchez's last eight starts overall. Drew Smyly will start here for the Phillies, who are now lame ducks for the final six games. We don't see any reason why Smyly, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for two teams this season (Phillies & Pirates), would come up big in this situation. The Nationals already average 5.5 runs per game at home. Play on OVER Philadelphia-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Minnesota is very likely to win the AL Central and go into the playoffs as the "3-seed" (would face either Yankees or Astros in LDS). Detroit has been nowhere near a playoff discussion this season and will soon be done playing games. They are 49.5 games behind the Twins. They have scored 339 fewer runs. No team in baseball has scored fewer runs. That leads us to playing the Under in this divisional matchup. The Tigers have averaged only 2.6 runs/game over the past week and gone five in a row without scoring more than three. That was before Sunday's 6-3 win over the White Sox. If they do have a chance of winning Tuesday, it'll be due to starter Spencer Turnbull. He has been one of the few reliable options in this rotation. Turnbull allowed only one run in his last start - with eight strikeouts and no walks - which ended up being a 2-1 loss in Cleveland. Unfortunately, Turnbull and the Tigers will face Jake Odorizzi. In 11 career starts vs. Detroit, Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Under is 12-3-1 in Odorizzi's past 16 starts overall including the last five on the road. The Under is also 5-1 in the Twins last six series openers. The Under is 6-1-1 the Tigers last eight games overall. Play UNDER Minnesota-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Indians were able to win the weekend, taking three of three from the Twins in Minnesota. But they are still the odd team out when it comes to a tight three-team race for the Wild Card in the American League. They are 1.5 games back of Oakland entering Monday and 2.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The A's are in Houston to start the week, which will be a tough series for them and that means Cleveland is going to need to make up some ground here in Los Angeles. Monday's starter will be Shane Bieber and he should hold up his end of the bargain. Bieber has been great on the road this year, owning a 2.85 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Going back to a complete game one-hitter he threw against Toronto on 7.24, Bieber has allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his last nine starts. But we're not sure the Cleveland offense can be trusted in this spot. The Indians last four games have all gone Under. Patrick Sandoval remains winless in five starts for the Angels, who are out of playoff contention, but he's given up just one run and two hits his last two times out. This has all the making of a low-scoring affair with major injuries affecting both lineups. The Indians are without Naquin and Ramirez while the Angels could be without Mike Trout. Bieber has started twice against the Angels in his career and has won both times, producing a 2.45 ERA. The Under is 10-2-1 in Bieber's 13 starts on the road this season. Play UNDER Cleveland-LA Angels

AAA

This is a 8* on the OVER

The Nationals absolutely stunned the Mets last night, scoring seven times in the bottom of the ninth to win 11-10. So much for a low-scoring game with deGrom and Scherzer as the two starting pitchers. Now, to be fair, over half the total runs scored in the game came in the 9th inning. (The Mets actually scored five in the top half!) and the game was only 4-2 heading into the 8th. While still technically in playoff contention, last night's result had the vibe of a "season-killer" for the Mets. As for the total, it won't be the likes of deGrom or Scherzer starting tonight, but rather Wheeler and Sanchez instead. Both have seen each of their last three starts go Over. In the case of Sanchez, it's four straight. We obviously know what both bullpens are "capable of" here. As bad as the Mets bullpen was last night, Nationals' relievers actually have the lowest ERA in the National League (5.95). (The Mets are 3rd worst). Let's also not forget what Washington has done at the plate over the last few weeks. Last night was the 5th time they went for 11+ runs since August 14th. They've scored at least seven runs in 15 of their last 21 games, a stretch which has seen them go 17-4. Expect a high-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. Play OVER Mets-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Cleveland has sustained some serious attrition over the last week or so, losing three key hitters from the everyday lineup. They are Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis. The former two are going to be out for an extended period of time with Naquin done for the year. These injuries have come at a most inopportune time for the Indians as they are in a tight race for the Wild Card. Getting swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay was a worst case scenario. But thankfully they get to play the White Sox this week. There is one key return for Cleveland and that's Carlos Carrasco, who was diagnosed with Leukemia and will now pitch in a relief role. Chicago has lost six in a row. So this should be a bounce back game for the Indians. But bet the Over instead. Even with the injuries, Cleveland's lineup should have its way with Ross Detweiler, who has been pretty bad this year. He gave up five runs in four innings his last start. Monday's starter for the Indians, Aaron Civale, has looked great. But we don't think he'll be able to maintain his current numbers. The Over is 8-2-2 in Chicago's last 12 road games as they'd given up 31 runs in the three games before yesterday's 5-3 loss. The Over is also 10-3 in the Indians last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play OVER Chicago-Cleveland

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Arizona had won six in a row before falling in extra innings Sunday. Despite the losing streak coming to an end yesterday, nearly sweeping a four-game series from the Dodgers is impressive. Monday sees the Dbax welcoming in the Padres, who are obviously a much weaker opponent, though San Diego also won 3 of 4 in its last series (against the Giants). We look for Monday's game to be pretty low scoring. The last series between the teams, a Padres sweep, resulted in all Unders as well. It's Cal Quantrill going for San Diego today. After being roughed up in his most recent start, we look for him to bounce back. It was the Dodgers that roughed Quantrill up, which happens to a lot of pitchers. His last seven starts have seen the Under go 5-2 as his ERA and WHIP are 3.69 and 1.08. He's held opponents to a .210 batting average during that time as well. His WHIP on the road this season is 1.05.  But the problem for Quantrill is that before yesterday's 8-4 win, the most runs scored in any game by the Padres in the last two weeks was 5. That's music to the ears of Arizona starter Leake, but what's not is that his team scores fewer runs at home than on the road. Leake does have a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home, however. He's coming off a quality start in San Francisco. Play UNDER San Diego-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Taking the Over in a game that involves Miami might sound dicey, but Washington can do all the heavy lifting if need be in this one. The Nationals have gotten ridiculously hot at just the right time as they've gone 15-3 in the last 18 games. Carrying them has been an offense that has scored seven or more runs 14 times during that stretch! They've scored 7 runs in both games of this series, one a shutout (yesterday) and the other a one-run game (Friday). Expect this one to be more along the lines of the opener even though the Marlins did virtually nothing at the plate in last night's game. The Over is 7-3-2 the past 12 times Miami failed to score more than two runs in its last game. Pat Corbin has had their number this year, but Washington is just 4-6 after a shutout win and their bullpen is still pretty suspect. Caleb Smith has struggled on the road for the Marlins this year and has a 6.32 ERA his past three starts overall. He's given up five runs in each of his last two and that's how many he gave up the last time he started here in D.C. as he lasted only three innings. Play OVER Miami-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

For the second day in a row, the Reds and Cardinals will play a doubleheader. This unusual circumstance was brought on by Friday's rainout and will undoubtedly take a toll on the position players. Yesterday's doubleheader also took a toll on the Reds as they lost both games. The first was a high-scoring affair (10-6) while the second was more in line with what you expect from these two teams (3-2 final). St. Louis won the second game in the final at-bat after holding Cincy to just three hits. Both teams are exceptional at limiting runs as they rank 2nd (Cardinals) and 4th (Reds) in runs allowed among National League teams. Cincinnati definitely has problems scoring, however. They are averaging only 4.4 runs/game. We don't see them getting too many off Miles Mikolas, who starts this first game for the Cardinals. The Under had been 8-3 in his first 11 home starts before the Over hit in the last two. The Under is 8-1-1 in Mikolas last 10 division starts. The Under is also 20-9-1 in the Cardinals last 30 games overall and 29-12 their last 41 home games. While Reds starter Mahle has a shocking 0-11 team start record on the road, the Under is 7-3-1 in those 11 games. The Under is also 20-8-1 the last 29 times the Reds have played a road game against a team with a .600 or better home win percentage. Play UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Yankees didn't score many runs last night, just two to be exact, but should do a lot more damage at the plate this afternoon against Homer Bailey, who often struggles on the road. Bailey has a nice 6-2 record since coming over from the Royals, but he actually hasn't pitched all that well for the A's as his ERA in those eight starts is 5.52. As already mentioned, he often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00 and the Over is 7-4. Bailey did pitch pretty well on August 20th against the Yankees, but that was at home. He will once again start opposite Domingo German. German is having a great year record-wise (he's 17-3), but his ERA (4.09) is higher than what you'd typically expect from a pitcher with that kind of record. German gave up six runs when he faced the A's 11 days ago and has never beaten them in three tries, ending up with an ugly 6.91 ERA. In playing the Over here, we have to mention that the Yankees average 5.8 runs/game, 2nd most in the majors. Oakland's scoring average rises on the road to 5.5 runs/game, which is a top five average. The Over is 25-12-1 the last 38 times the Yankees allowed at least five runs in their last game. Play OVER Oakland-New York 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

St. Louis has taken the first two games from Milwaukee and goes for the sweep Wednesday afternoon in Miller Park. There is no denying that the Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. They're 15-3 their last 18 games and that surge has them in first place in the NL Central. We started this series by cashing the Over Monday as the Cardinals rolled to a 12-2 victory that day. Last night's game was not quite as high scoring with St. Louis coming out ahead by a score of 6-3. For this day game, we like the Under as the Brewers have had some obvious issues scoring of late and they've got to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now, Jack Flaherty. Since the All Star Break, Flaherty has a 0.73 ERA in eight starts. Opponents are hitting just .152 against him in the second half and in August he's 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA and 40 strikeouts! He's allowed a total of one run in his last 32 innings just five runs in his last 56 1/3 IP. In five of his last seven starts, Flaherty has not given up a single run. Giving Milwaukee a chance here is Jordan Lyles. Acquired from Pittsburgh before the trade deadline, Lyles has proven be a solid addition to the starting rotation with a 3-1 record and 2.67 ERA in five outings. He just held Arizona hitless for six innings in his last start. This game has all the makings of a pitchers' duel. Play UNDER St. Louis-Milwaukee

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

It was a very good weekend for St. Louis, who not only swept a four-game series against the Rockies, but also watched as the Cubs suffered a rare sweep at Wrigley, at the hands of the Nationals. That leaves the Cardinals up 2.5 games in the NL Central, a division race which Milwaukee also remains a part of as they are 4.5 back after taking two of three this weekend from Arizona. The Cardinals and Brewers just met last week in St. Louis with the home team taking two of three. The Cards did a pretty good job in that series in terms of limiting runs, but they are typically less effective in doing so on the road. Just look at tonight's starter Adam Wainwright. He has a 2.67 ERA at home, but a 6.87 ERA on the road. Not to mention a 1.66 WHIP as well. Milwaukee's Gio Gonzales has watched as his last three starts have all gone Over as he has a 4.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP during that time. He'll have to deal with a St. Louis offense that just scored 31 runs in the four-game sweep of the Rockies. Lastly, the Over is 24-9-1 the past 34 times Milwaukee has been coming off a game in which they were held to two runs or fewer. Play on OVER St. Louis-Milwaukee 

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Unbelievable! For the second time in 10 days, the Astros suffered a historic loss as a huge favorite. This time it was 2-1 to the Tigers, ironically with Justin Verlander on the mound. Houston closed at -530 on the money line, which was not the first time they've lost at -500 or higher. Ten days ago, it was to Baltimore. Those aren't the Astros only losses as big favorites recently. Because they're always priced so high, there have been four losses total at -350 or higher. Making matters more difficult to swallow from last night is that Detroit had just two hits, but both were home runs. The Tigers still have scored the fewest runs in baseball. We wouldn't expect them to score many tonight either. They're going against Gerrit Cole, who also could end up closing north of -500. Cole has a 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His last five starts have resulted in just six runs allowed in 34 innings. Good thing for Detroit then that they have Jordan Zimmerman going. Zimmerman threw five shutout innings himself his last time out and allowed only one hit. It'll be another low-scoring affair tonight in Houston as the Astros look to make amends for yet another historical loss. The Under is 11-5-1 the L17 times the Tigers have played the finale of four-game series. Play UNDER Detroit-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Twins can scored with the best of 'em, but they failed to do so Monday night in a surprising 6-4 loss to the White Sox. You'd expect them to bounce back Tuesday, but in Wednesday's early game they are going to have to contend with Chicago's best pitcher. That would be Lucas Giolito. The White Sox may not be a good team, but they are 15-9 this year when Giolito pitches. Though his last start vs. the Twins was not good, we expect Giolito to pitch well here. Back in May, he threw five shutout innings against the Twins, holding them to one hit. While keeping the Twins offense in check might be easier said than done (we still expect Giolito to do so!), Jake Odorizzi should have no such difficulty with the anemic White Sox. Odorizzi's last three starts have all brought victory for the Twins as well as a 3-0 mark with Unders. Odorizzi has faced Chicago only once this year and he held them scoreless for 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one hit (sound familiar?). The Under is 13-3-1 in Odorizzi's last 17 starts vs. the AL Central. It is 13-6 in Giolito's last 19 starts overall. Play UNDER on White Sox/Twins

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

We called for the Yankees to bounce back from an ugly 19-5 defeat on Friday and that's exactly what they did, beating Cleveland 3-2. As you can tell from the respective scores, it was a much different game Friday night as the Indians were held to only four hits as opposed to the 24 they unleashed on Thursday. New York also got 6 1/3 strong innings from Masahiro Tanaka. We think Saturday starter James Paxton is in line for a similar performance as he's gone 3-0 over his last three starts with a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The problem for the Yankees though is that Cleveland's Zach Plesac has not lost since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus in June and the Indians are 7-0 his last seven starts. Plesac has a 3.12 ERA in those seven starts and has allowed no more than three runs in six of them. The Under has hit in the third games of the Indians last five series. Play UNDER Cleveland-New York 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

This series has gone exactly as you might expect with the Dodgers taking the first two games 15-1 and 9-1. This is after all a matchup of one of the best teams in baseball against one of its worst. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Miami won't score much this afternoon as not only are they the lowest scoring team in the National League (by a mile), they are also set to go up against Walker Buehler. Buehler is having himself an outstanding year with a 3.08 and 0.99 WHIP in 22 starts. He's 10-2 and just threw six shutout innings in his last start. Before that, it was a complete game effort where he allowed only one run on five hits. Miami has already proven that it can't hit Dodger pitching (2 runs in 2 games and just seven hits), so that half of the equation is a given. It really can't be understated how inept the Marlins are offensively. All but five teams have scored at least 100 more runs than them over the course of the year. All but two have scored at least 89 more. This Under boils down to if LA's bats are kept in check and Miami does have Caleb Smith on the mound. Smith has been good, particularly at home, and we believe will get the job done. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home. The Under is 20-8-2 in Miami's L30 home games. Play UNDER LA-MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

There haven't been too many highlights this season for Toronto, but they've looked really good in this series with Texas. They won Monday's opener 19-4 and despite a late pitching change were able to win last night's game in shutout fashion (3-0). We think things are likely to revert back to a high-scoring affair for Wednesday's finale. While the Rangers haven't been doing much scoring lately, they certainly did have their chances last night. But they left 10 men on base. The first inning saw them have the bases loaded with one out, but obviously they failed to score. Look for them to cash in more of those opportunities today against Sean Reid-Foley, who has a very misleading 2.95 ERA as his WHIP is 1.641. That means he's been getting away with putting a lot of runners on base. Since joining the rotation, he has issues 10 walks and allowed 13 hits in 14 innings. Texas goes with Allard, who is making only his third career start (second this year). He lasted only 4 1/3 innings last week in Milwaukee and while he gave up only two runs on three hits, he did walk three batters. This will be a high-scoring game. Play OVER Texas-Toronto

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The A's and White Sox play a daytime affair on Friday and this is one where Oakland has to take advantage. They are in a competitive Wild Card race and taking on a team that has generally played very poorly in the second half of the season. But our focus is on the total. The good news for the A's is that you have to figure starter Michael Fiers will pitch well here. He's unbeaten in his last 16 starts (8-0) with a 2.26 ERA. Fiers has never lost to Chicago in his career as he's 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in seven starts and the ERA is even lower at Guaranteed Rate Field. He shut them out for 7+ innings at home last month as well. The White Sox are 28th in runs scored, so it's definitely a favorable match for Fiers. But we don't look for the A's to score all that many runs either today. They scored just one run on Wednesday in a loss to the Cubs across town. The Under is 23-7-1 their last 31 games vs. the AL Central. Under is 6-1-1 for the White Sox following an off day. Play UNDER Oakland-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Padres will be going for a season sweep of the Mariners here. Back in April, they took two games at home, 6-3 and 1-0. Seattle has fallen way off since then and is now 21 games below .500 after losing at home to San Diego last night, 9-4. It doesn't seem like the Mariners will be all too an inspiring choice looking forward, but tonight we like their chances of at least keeping San Diego's offense in check. The Padres may have scored nine runs last night and 10 the game before that (still lost to LA), but such production at the plate is irregular for them. Kikuchi has allowed no more than three runs in five of his last seven starts. San Diego's Lucchesi has done the same in four of his last six starts. So we're looking for this to be a low-scoring affair.  The Under is 7-2-1 the L10 times San Diego has been off a win. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Mariners last 11 games vs. a lefty starter including 4-0-1 at home. Play UNDER San Diego-Seattle

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

What a difference a week makes. At this time last week, Boston was going for a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park. They failed, losing the Sunday nighter by a score of 9-6. They haven't won since with the losing streak now at seven games and it's the Yankees going into this week's Sunday nighter with a chance to sweep. Making this seven-game skid even more painful is the fact all those losses came against either the Yankees or the Rays, the two other contending teams in their own division. One bit of positive news for the Red Sox is that David Price is returning from the paternity list to pitch tonight. While his recent numbers aren't great, Price did hold the Yankees to just two runs in a win back in June, his lone start against them this year. The Yankees have Happ on the mound and he has a 3.18 ERA in two starts vs. Boston in 2019. He too is coming off the paternity list (congrats to both pitchers!) Happ held Arizona to three runs in six innings his last start. We project this to be a low-scoring affair. Play UNDER Boston-Yankees

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We had the Braves as they won a rain-shortened affair Thursday, 4-1. But last night saw the Reds turn the table with a 5-2 win. Cincy is by far and away the top Under team this season with a 65-39-4 record in all games. A lot of that has to do with the fact their pitching staff has allowed the fifth fewest number runs per game. That pitching staff just got a lot stronger too with the addition of Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline. Bauer is set to make his Reds debut Saturday night and should excel here in the National League with the weaker lineups where the majority of opposing hitters aren't as familiar with him. Unfortunately for Bauer and the Reds, they'll be up against Dallas Keuchel tonight. Keuchel was the Braves' big mid-season acquisition as he's treated the Atlanta faithful to a 2.66 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three home starts so far. He struck out 12 in his last start here at SunTrust Park. The first two games of this series were both low-scoring and this is the strongest starting pitching battle of the series. So this game follows suit. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Arizona-Yankees

Arizona is a team that scores more on the road than they do at home. The increase is pretty drastic. They go from 4.5 runs/game at Chase Field to 5.7 on the road. This series finds them playing with the designated hitter as they're matched up with the Yankees, who obviously have little difficulty scoring themselves. The Yanks are #2 overall in runs/game at 5.8. Now last night's game ended up as a 4-2 final. But this one figures to be a lot more high scoring. Interestingly enough, New York is now 0-3 vs. Arizona this year following last night's loss. Their pitching staff has been giving up a lot of runs lately (83 in the L9 games) and no starting effort was worse than the last time Masahiro Tanaka hit the mound as he allowed 12 runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Tanaka now has a 9.55 ERA his last four starts and a 7.02 ERA his last nine. Not good. Zack Greinke will be on the mound for the Dbax and while we usually equate him with the best pitchers in the league, he does have a 5.16 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. New York. This is a much stronger lineup than Greinke is used to seeing over in the National League. The Yankees are 6-0 to the Over the last six times they've been off a loss. Play OVER Arizona-Yankees.

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

What looked to be a favorable homestand for the Angels did not get off to a good start. They had Baltimore for four games over the weekend, but lost the first three. They did win 5-4 Sunday (in walkoff fashion), but that series was a golden opportunity down the drain. Fortunately, they'll now  welcome in the Tigers, who might be even worse that the Orioles, if you can believe it. Detroit has lost six in a row and 14 of 16 games since the All Star Break. They have scored the least number of runs in all of baseball this year. So trust us when we say that the Angels deserve to be big favorites in this spot, especially going against Jordan Zimmerman, who has not won in almost a full calendar year. Detroit won't score much Monday as Angels starter Jaime Barria has given up all of four runs in his last three starts (15 IP). The key is going to be how much will the Angels score. We're willing to bank it won't be too large of a number as the Under is 17-8 the last 25 meetings between these two teams. Play UNDER Detroit-Los Angeles

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Apparently it wasn't just London that brings out the scoring between the Yankees and Red Sox. This series has seen Boston explode for 38 runs so far as they've now scored 59 in the last five games vs. New York. All five games have easily gone Over as yesterday's contest - which had 14 total runs scored - was actually the LOWEST scoring. We'll call for today's to be even lower scoring though as Yankee pitching HAS to improve and the Red Sox have Chris Sale on the mound. Domingo German starts for NY and he'll be looking to bounce back from his worst start of 2019. Before that, it had been three straight quality starts for him. Sale is off two straight quality starts as he continues to get back on track after a disappointing 1st half. We expect the "World" to be on the Over tonight as this is the lowest posted total for any of the four games in this series. But there's value on the Under with Sale pitching as he should keep the Yankees in check and you should look for German to pitch better than expected as well as the Under is 5-1 his last six starts. Play UNDER New York-Boston

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

This is the first time the Yankees and Red Sox have met since that silly series they played in London. It was pretty clear from the first inning of the first game that stadium was "a little different" from your standard MLB park (fence was too short!) and the hitters took full advantage in games that ended with scores of 17-13 and 12-8. The Yankees won both and are now 6-1 against the Red Sox this season. That's why they're in first and the Red Sox are in third place. Though back stateside, we do expect the teams to continue to score in bunches tonight. The Yankees are averaging 6.4 runs/game on the road and just scored 24 times in the last two days alone, at Minnesota. They had 20 hits in Tuesday's game and 15 more last night. They've scored at least 10 runs in three of the last five games. Now they are set to face Rick Porcello, who has an 8.64 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in his last three starts. Boston is also one of the top offensive teams as they average 5.7 runs/game. They'll be going against Masahiro Tanaka, who has struggled on the road (5.40 ERA) where he's won just once. The Over is 22-5-1 in the Yankees last 28 road games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play OVER Yankees-Boston

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the UNDER

We anticipate this being a low-scoring affair despite neither starter being anything remotely special. Miami comes into this Interleague series as the lowest scoring team in the National League. Every NL team has scored at least 77 more runs this year than have the Marlins. The White Sox have scored fewer runs this year than all but two teams. Miami is one and Detroit is the other. True to form, the Marlins were shutout on Sunday while the White Sox scored only four runs in a pair of losses over the weekend. The starting pitching matchup for this game is actually better than it looks considering Chicago's Ivan Nova is perfect in four career starts vs. Miami (4-0), posting a 0.98 ERA! Trevor Richards of the Marlins has an 0-7 team start record his last seven times out, but don't put all the blame on him as six of the seven losses saw him get no more than three runs of support. In his last 11 starts, Richards has given up three runs or less eight times. Play UNDER Miami-Chicago

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

The Indians are playing well right now. They've taken advantage of a really easy schedule to go 12-3 this month and their lone loss since the All Star Break was 1-0 to the Royals on Saturday. They bounced back from that to win 5-4 Sunday and now head to Toronto to face a Blue Jays team they swept earlier in the season. Toronto is just the next bad team on the Indians' schedule as they've won less than 38% of their games this year and are just 18-30 at home. They even lost yesterday to the Tigers, who had previously dropped 22 of 25 games. While Mike Clevingers' numbers on the road might be worrisome to some, it's a very small sample size (just three starts) and his last three starts overall have resulted in only two runs allowed in 17 innings. That includes six shutout innings on the road. Here he'll be facing a Blue Jays lineup that doesn't hit well at home (.221 average). Ryan Borucki is starting a major league game for the first time all year as injuries have limited him to just four minor league assignments. It's a tough spot for him facing a team that's won 28 of its last 39 games. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Houston has won the first two games of the series, 4-3 and 6-1. Texas has now lost six in a row after opening the second half with a couple of wins against these Astros. One of those two wins came with today's starter, Lance Lynn, on the mound. Lynn blanked Houston for seven innings that day, giving up only six hits while striking out 11. His only other start against Houston this year was an odd one as he gave up three solo home runs in a 3-0 loss back on May 10th. So it's been two quality starts with very different results due to three pitches. Despite a loss in his most recent start, Lynn is tied for the most wins among American League starters, so we should expect another quality effort here. The problem for the Rangers is they had only two hits yesterday against a pitcher that had not looked good in his first big league start. So there's no reason to think Rogelio Armenteros can't pitch well today, even though this will be his first career start. As a reliever, he did toss four scoreless innings earlier in the week. Play UNDER Texas-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

The Pirates got swept over the weekend (in Chicago) while the Cardinals are off a successful series with the Diamondbacks (took 2 of 3) right here at home. This looks to be a crucial series in the crowded National League Central where all five teams are separated by only 6.5 games. St. Louis looks to be in better shape though coming out of the break and their pitching staff tends to be a lot better at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas has a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home, far better numbers than what he's produced on the road. A 2.96 ERA his L9 starts vs. Pittsburgh is also nice as is the fact he has 18 strikeouts against only two walks his past four starts. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won each of Joe Musgrove's last four starts as he's on a bit of a hot streak (1.64 ERA in last 22 IP). This sets up to be a rather low-scoring affair as every Cardinals game over the weekend saw seven or fewer total runs scored (Under was 3-0) and the Under is 3-1-1 when Musgrove starts on seven or more days rest. Play UNDER Pittsburgh-St. Louis

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Angels made a pitching change as they'll now open with Ramirez, who will quickly give way to Felix Pena. The move had no effect on our read on the total for this game as the Angels figure to give up plenty of runs no matter who is on the mound for them. Houston seems to have found its stride again, winning five in a row. They'll send Justin Verlander out today, but before you mark this as an automatic 'W' for the Astros, be aware that Verlander has allowed at least three runs in each of his last five starts. He allowed 10 home runs in June. So don't be surprised if the Angels score more runs than expected Friday. Whether or not it's enough to win is a different matter altogether. Pena has a 4.92 ERA in the relief role this year and the Astros have scored 24 runs in just two games vs. the Angels this season. The Over is 14-6-3 in the Angels last 23 road games and it is 7-0-1 for the Astros if they allowed two runs or less in their previous game. (They are coming off a 4-2 win at Colorado). Play OVER Los Angeles-Houston 

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Not that many runs have been scored in this series so far. Nor do we expect many runs to be scored in today's early start between the Marlins and Nationals. The home team is 2 for 2 in the series thus far, winning 3-2 and 3-1. That's par for the course of late for both teams with Washington now winning 7 of 8 overall and Miami losing 6 of its last 8. That time has seen the Nationals go 5 for 5 head to head with the Marlins. This game sees the Fish having more of a chance due to Elieser Hernandez, who has a 0.985 WHIP after four starts. Hernandez has allowed three runs or less every time out so far. For the Nats, Sanchez has allowed 2 or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He's 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA in those six starts. The Under is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 road games. This is of course a team that is last in the National League in runs scored. Play UNDER Miami-Washington

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER 

We missed with Minnesota yesterday as Oakland won its fourth straight. The difference was a grand slam from Chris Herrmann, who was suiting up for the A's for the very first time. Take that grand slam away and the Twins would have won 6-4. Tonight's game figures to be a lower-scoring affair as Oakland has made a pitching change from Anderson to Fiers and this should work in our favor. Fiers has a 0.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts and his numbers at home are quite impressive for the year. Fiers has made seven straight quality starts and during that time you're looking at a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Twins have lost four of five and the offense has started to taper off. Kyle Gibson was one of several starters overachieving for them early on, but he's definitely come back down to Earth his last two starts. But we expect Gibson to get back on track here as he's working on plenty of rest and the Under is 5-1 his last six starts vs. the AL West. Play UNDER Minnesota-Oakland

AAA

This is a 9* play on the UNDER

While still technically "international," the Red Sox have to be thankful to be out of London where the runs kept coming in MLB's first ever series contested in Europe. They and the Yankees played two ridiculous games, one a 17-13 final that took nearly five hours to play nine innings. The dimensions of Olympic Stadium were way too favorable to the hitters and Boston took advantage by hitting six homers and scoring 28 runs in two games. But they still lost both! Canada should bring a sharp decline in scoring, not just on the Boston side, but the runs allowed side of the ledger as well. Toronto is hitting only .212 at home this season. That's the lowest team batting average at home in all of baseball. Being at home didn't stop the Jays from scoring 11 times in yesterday's win over the Royals, but tonight they are against arch nemesis David Price, who is 22-3 with a 2.37 ERA in 31 career starts vs. Toronto. Price is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA his last eight starts overall. He's allowed more than two runs only twice in his last 10 starts. Toronto's Thornton faced Boston on June 21st and held them to two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Play UNDER Boston-Toronto

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Kansas City comes into Monday afternoon's contest with a chance to earn themselves a four-game split here in Toronto. They won Sunday, 7-6, thanks to one big inning as they scored five times in the 3rd. Such a big inning is unlikely to occur again for a team that is unaccustomed to delivering significant offense on a consistent basis. As for Toronto, while they have scored five or more runs in every game in this series, they also have a .211 batting average at home this year. No team has a lower batting average at home and the next lowest team (Giants) are actually at .226. So expect the hitters to struggle in this Canada Day matinee. That's even though neither starter is anything special. But at times, Glenn Sparkman has been quite good for the Royals. Two starts ago, he held baseball's top offense (Minnesota) to one run in seven innings. Clayton Richard turned in a quality start his last time out, allowing just three runs (all solo home runs) to the Yankees. We anticipate this being a low-scoring affair as the Under is 10-3-2 the L15 times KC has played the fourth game of a series while Toronto is 6-2-1 Under in that same role. Play UNDER KC-TORONTO

AAA

analysis soon

This is a 10* play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee

We had Milwaukee on Saturday and they were able to win a back and forth game over the Reds, 6-5, thereby snapping a five-game losing streak. The win also ended Cincinnati's six-game win streak. Including Yasmani Grandal's first career leadoff home run, the two teams combined for seven runs in the first inning alone yesterday afternoon. From there, the scoring did slow down considerably, but look for it to pick back up again for this final game of the series. Brandon Woodruff may have a 12-3 team start record for the Brewers, but you wouldn't know it by the way he's pitched lately. In his last four starts, he's surrendered 16 runs in 23 innings. Cincy's DeSclafani has much better recent numbers, but over the course of the season he hasn't been anything special. The Over is 5-0 his last five Sunday starts. This should be a high-scoring affair. Play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

A Reds game actually went Over yesterday. They (the Reds) did all the lifting themselves, scoring 11 runs on Texas, thereby ending an 11-game Under streak that began on June 1st. By winning, they also avoided a sweep. Now they welcome in Houston for a second straight interleague series. The Astros will surely be in a foul mood after getting beat 12-0 by Toronto on Sunday. The first two games of that series went much differently with the Astros scoring 22 runs and winning both. But the offense could very well struggle again here as they face Luis Castillo, who is 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for the Reds. The Under is 10-4 in his 14 starts. Castillo has allowed just two runs, both solo homers, in his last two starts and only six hits total. The Astros have quite the limited lineup right now with a number of key players out. The pitcher must also hit in this game because it's a NL park. That pitcher will be Wade Miley, who threw six scoreless innings his last start. He's allowed more than three runs just one time in his 14 starts. This will be a low scoring game. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER Cubs-Dodgers

The Cubs denied us a second straight win in this series (won with the Dodgers Friday) with a two-run rally in the ninth last night (we had the Dodgers Friday). That would have also been the Dodgers third straight win over the Cubs had Anthony Rizzo not connected on a 2-run HR. Nevertheless, we're going to continue playing this series, only this time looking at the total. While last night's game certainly featured little in the way of scoring, the first two games saw 10 and 8 total runs scored. The Dodgers are averaging 5.6 runs/game at home while the Cubs average 5.5 on the road. The key here will be the Cubs getting a few at the expense of Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been just incredible this year. In his last seven starts, Ryu has allowed all of three runs in 50 2/3 innings! He's walked only five batters all year. But we think the Cubs can get a few off him (Ryu has a 4.24 ERA in three previous starts against them) and their starter Jose Quintana is 0-3 over his last four starts with a 5.48 ERA. Play OVER Cubs-Dodgers

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This is an 8* play on UNDER Rays/Angels

Tampa Bay came back from an early 4-0 deficit to easily down the Angels last night. Their nine runs were scored across two innings. That isn't likely to repeated this afternoon. The Rays' previous five games had all stayed Under as had 9 of their last 10. But the Angels are even more likely to struggle to score here as they have to go up against Charlie Morton, the surprise Cy Young contender who is still unbeaten (8-0) after 14 starts. Morton has a 2.10 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the year and hasn't allowed a run in June with 14 scoreless innings under his belt. Remember that the Rays have allowed fewer runs this year than every other team. They allow just 3.3 per game. Before losing yesterday, LA had won three in a row, all by the same score of 5-3. All three games stayed Under. They're sending out Jose Suarez, whose only two starts both came against Seattle, a high-scoring team that hits lots of home runs. The Rays are a very different type of offense. Play UNDER Angels-Rays

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER KC-MINNESOTA

The Twins are a team that certainly needs little help in going Over the total. They lead all of baseball in runs scored at 404. They average 6.0 per game, so it shouldn't take much assistance from the Royals here to cash this ticket. Luckily, KC put seven runs on the board last night in a win over Detroit. That game was played in Omaha (to hype the College World Series) and what was most impressive about the Royals offense is that they scored four of those seven runs against a very competant starter in Matthew Boyd. Here they'll face Kyle Gibson. In his last start, Gibson surrendered five runs in five innings (two home runs) to a Tigers team that is dead last in MLB in runs. The Twins have gone Over five in a row and are 7-0-1 Over their last eight. Facing a starter that has a 4-10 TSR (Brad Keller) should lead to them at least hitting their average, if not exceeding it. The Over hit both times these teams faced off earlier in the year and is 27-11-2 the previous 40 meetings. Play OVER Kansas City-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER DET-KC

Even though Kansas City is looking up at Detroit in the standings (as well as every other team), there's a case to be made that the Tigers have played worse. Detroit's -109 run differential is 2nd worst in all baseball with only Baltimore being outscored by a wider margin. Kansas City has "only" been outscored by 72 runs, by comparison. The primary reason that the Tigers have four more wins is that they are 5-1 head to head with the Royals this year. But KC can change that here. Detroit has scored the least amount of runs of any team in MLB. But this probably isn't the best spot to bet against them as Spencer Turnbull has been one of their better starters, if not the best. Turnbull has faced the Royals twice this year and both were quality outings. He's allowed more than three runs just one time in 13 starts. The Royals have dropped 8 of 9 and have topped three runs in only two of those games. A bit of positive news for them is that starter Junis is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. Detroit. Play UNDER Detroit-KC

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Pittsburgh-Milwaukee

The Brewers really beat up on the Pirates Friday night, winning 10-4. They figure to put up a lot more runs this weekend against this beleaguered Pittsburgh staff. In their last 10 games, the Pirates have given up 10 or more runs FIVE times. Not good. Nor are the numbers of Saturday starter Jordan Lyles. His last three outings have produced a 7.47 ERA. One of those was against Milwaukee (the last one) and he gave up four runs in six innings. Lyles again goes up against Zach Davies, who got the better of him last Sunday. Davies went eight innings in the 4-2 win. But the last time he started at Miller Park was a a disaster as he allowed six runs in three innings. If there is a saving grace for Pittsburgh, it's that the Brewers have given up 7.1 runs/game over the past week. Also, Davies has a 5.40 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. Pittsburgh. But Milwaukee is hitting .300 in five games against Pirates pitching this year, hitting 14 home runs and scoring 41 runs. The Over is now 26-8-1 the Pirates last 34 games. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Milwaukee

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER Cincinnati-St. Louis

These teams got washed out on Wednesday, so the pitching matchup of DeSclafani vs. Hudson has been moved back a day. Hudson had a strong May for St. Louis, posting a 2.80 ERA in six starts. But there are signs that his recent rash of success (3-0 TSR L3) may not last. First off, he has a 1.59 WHIP overall. That means he's putting a lot more runners on base than he should. The WHIP is even higher at home where the Over has gone 3-1-1 his past five turns. DeSclafani has been the least effective member of the Reds rotation so far as he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He'd allowed three home runs in back to back starts before losing to the Pirates 7-2 on May 29th. He finished with a 5.59 ERA in May. The Over is 4-1 his last five division starts and a perfect 4-0 the last four times he's gone up against St. Louis. Play OVER Cincinnati-St. Louis

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER SF-METS

Talk about your misleading final scores. The Giants won here at Citi Field Tuesday night, beating the Mets by a score of 9-3. But that game went 10 innings. They scored as many runs in the top half of the final inning as were scored in the previous nine frames - combined. Even though last night's starting pitching matchup (Bumgarner vs. Syndergaard) was more "marquee", we look for tonight's game to end up lower scoring. Things were certainly on a low-scoring trajectory for most of the game last night. San Francisco has now won three straight, scoring eight runs or more in every game, but let's not forget it wasn't that long ago that they couldn't score more than four runs in a game (six straight). The Mets offense hasn't done much recently either. But it'll help having Jason Vargas starting. He has a 1.80 ERA at home. He has a 2.12 ERA in five previous starts vs. the Giants. He's allowed exactly one run in five of his previous six starts. Tyler Beede is making just his third career start here for San Francisco. He pitched well in the last one, giving up only one run to the Marlins in seven innings. Play UNDER Giants-Mets

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER LA-ARIZONA

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks last met in March, the very first series of the year. All four of those games went Over and the Dodgers won three of them, scoring at least eight runs in every victory. But the series was also played at Chavez Ravine where LA has been almost unstoppable this year. Case in point, the Dodgers just swept Philly at home this past weekend, scoring 18 runs in three games. On the road, the Dodgers scoring average does go down to 5.1 runs/game and in games started by lefties it drops to 4.4 per game. They face a lefty on the road today in Robbie Ray, who just so happens to have had the "Dodgers number" in his career. Ray is 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 prior starts vs. LA. But starting opposite Ray will be Walker Buehler. Buehler still has a 1.09 WHIP (5th best in NL) even after giving up five runs in his last start, which was highly uncharacteristic. He has allowed no more than three earned runs in 8 of his 11 starts this year. The Under is 9-3-1 his last 13 starts vs. the NL West. Play UNDER Los Angeles-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* Play on UNDER Red Sox-Yankees

The Yankees go for the sweep Sunday night and if they pull it off, that means they'd be 5-0 against the Red Sox this year. That's a big reason why the teams are "at where they're at" in the AL East standings. In four games vs. Yankees, Boston has scored just seven runs. They lost 5-3 on Saturday, the 4th time in 4 games that the Under hit with these rivals on the field. Look for the Under trend to continue tonight on "Sunday Night Baseball" (on ESPN) even though we have two veteran pitchers starting that the opponents know well. David Price didn't pitch well against the Yankees last year, but he also has not permitted a single earned run in his last 11 2/3 innings of work. Going back seven starts, he's not allowed more than three any time out. CC Sabathia goes for the Yankees, certainly not his first time starting opposite Price. He's also coming off a short stint on the DL. Over his last eight starts vs. Boston, Sabathia is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA. So the timing is right for his return. The Under is 34-16-2 in Boston's last 52 Sunday games. Play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Houston-Oakland

After winning with the Under in this matchup on Friday, we made the mistake of going with the Over last night. Houston's lineup did its job, scoring five runs, but Justin Verlander proved to be too tough for the Oakland hitters as he held them to just one run (a solo HR) over eight innings. Let's then go back to the Under today. This, even though Khris Davis returned Saturday for Oakland. He's their best hitter, but not enough alone to overcome Gerritt Cole, who silenced the Cubs in his last start. He held the Cubbies to just two runs and three hits, also finishing with 12 strikeouts. Cole, a native Californian, is 10-3 all-time pitching in the Sunshine State (including 2-0 here). Let'ss not forget Houston is without several big names in its every day lineup too, such as Correa, Altuve and Springer. That'll make the job easier here for Oakland starter Chris Bassit, who already has a 2.81 career ERA vs. the Astros. A quick note on the A's hitters here. Their only three runs in this series have all come on solo home runs. Davis was 0 for 4 in his return yesterday. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Mets-Arizona

With deGrom vs. Greinke, the automatic response is to take the Under. But with deGrom that would be a bad move as his last three starts have all gone Over. Not all of that is his doing mind you, but it is certainly worth bringing to light. Arizona is stuck in a five-game losing streak, but all but one loss was by one run. Greinke has come out on the short end of two one-run decisions his last two starts and the Diamondbacks are actually only 1-4 the last five times he's started. The one win was the last time he pitched at home when they scored 11 runs. While unlikely to get that many tonight, this is a lineup averaging 5.2 runs/game for the year. With the pitching matchup, the oddsmakers obviously going to set a low total, but it's too low in our eyes as the Over is 6-1 the last seven times the Mets have been off a win. The Over is also 6-2 in Greinke's last eight starts at home. Play OVER NY Mets-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Houston-Oakland

We went with the Under in this same matchup yesterday, so why the switch today? Justin Verlander is pitching for the Astros, so he should take care of business, right? Maybe as he's yet to allow more than four runs in any start this year and has allowed no more than 1 eight times. But we also think it's time for this Houston lineup to explode. They've only scored four runs total the last two games. They are averaging more than five per game for the season. Sure the lineup is without some key players right now (Correa, Springer). However, Brett Anderson (starting for Oakland) has a 6.97 ERA in five previous starts vs. the Astros. But the biggest reason we are switching gears here is that the A's should have Khris Davis back in their lineup. That's a gamechanger and their offense should wake up too. The A's previous series (vs. the Angels) was all Overs. Play OVER Houston-Oakland

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