Im betting Miami comes out here ready to leave everything on the floor in last ditch effort to stave off elimination and that alone will elevate their expected point total. Meanwhile the capable Nuggets playing on their own home floor with championship aspirations just a victory away will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

MIAMI in their L/35 games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 26-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play over

When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER   off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.  Malone is 15-5 OVER  off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MIAMI is 20-11 OVER  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play over

After a grueling 7 game series vs the Celtics the Heat will be on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown spot, that will have them unable to play a physical style of defensive ball. On the flip side the Nuggets are well rested and healthy and should come out here on fire ready to run and gun.   This combination Im betting will see this Totals offering eclipsed in more wide open game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The Celtics in their last two games  are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial  noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late,  the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total. 

LA LAKERS are 30-17 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 48-33 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER  L/27 seasons for a  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play over

Because the Lakers are backed into the proverbial corner after going down 2-0 in this series Im betting they come here in aggressive run and gun fashion and the Nuggets will have no choice but  to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks  of their own or be blown of the court. Advantage to the over.

Note: LA LAKERS  in their L/36 games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

The Nuggets came out of gate in game 1 running and gunning , but looked a little weary in the 2nd half of that tilt with  the pace dropping perceptively and the Lakers adjusting on defense.  
Im betting on  a more even keeled game here with  key adjustments taking place on both sides of the court which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 11-4-1 in Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 11-3-1 in Nuggets last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 43-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA play off Game 2’s after a Game 1 over result , have seen the  under go 41-26 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors  in the last five seasons. 

Play under

The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in  transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. 

LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 42-23 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER   when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER   when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over.

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER  in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER  )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play over

This matchup according to my projections estimate a combined score that eclipses this totals offering and should be closer to 211. Thanks to the Knicks top tier defensive play against another defensive minded team the Cleveland Cavs in their last series this total is now a little tainted in my opinion and offers value for over bettors even if key offensive cog- Randle misses this game for the Knicks.  

NEW YORKs L/10 games  after 3 or more consecutive unders this season a combined score of 218.9 ppg have gone on the scoreboard.

NEW YORK is 17-7 OVER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 10-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 3 straight games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Play on the over

We are getting into clutch time in this series, and Im now betting we begin to see a more physical type of basketball that leans on the conservative side. My own projections make this game closer to a 231 which gives us almost two full possessions value on this line offering from the books to the under. 

Under is 20-8-1 in Kings last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 home games.SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combine average of 230.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER   in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 UNDER  in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER   in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 41-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 71-28 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

I know these sides have eclipsed the total in 7 straight meetings and there are a ton of over trends. However, Im betting that the Heat will be in bubble mode tonight and will be conservative in transition knowing that the Bucks will come at them with everything they have. That in itself bodes well for a score that does not eclipse this total. 

The Heat are 2nd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace in the league and 30th in ppg production and  we  will see why these stats had been established this season, MIAMI is 14-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI/MILWAUKEE ) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average score of those 34 tilts clicking in at 202.4 ppg. 

Play under 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Afternoon pro basketball can sometimes be a little bit slower and low scoring as it takes time for bodies that are used to playing most of their games in the evening to get acclimated to early starts . However, this total is just a little bit over done to the low side according to my estimates even though these two sides have taken part in 3 lower scoring affairs . ( My totals projection took into consideration that NEW YORK is 20-10 OVER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored and that in Cleveland last  14 games  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Also Bickerstaff  in 8 road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

Play over

My projections make this total closer to 235 which gives us close to 2 full possession advantage to the  under. 

SACRAMENTO is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored . 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with combined average  off 228 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season with s combined 216 ppg scored.  GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER   after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 219 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 54-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

Play on the under

Philadelphia poured down 121 points in game 1 for the hefty DD win. The Nets will now have to become more aggressive offensively, while the Sixers will have not problem obliging them with a full blown offensive attack in response. BROOKLYN is 15-5 OVER  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 28-9 OVER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 OVER  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this seasons with combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 77-36 OVER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 56-25 OVER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Entering the play offs Atlanta s offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 123.6 ppg in their L/5 trips the court, and Im betting they will for the most part keep up that  tiop tier offensive pace tonight in Boston . We know Boston is a solid defensive side, but when pressured can turn up their offense, and thats what Im betting the Celtics will be forced into doing today. BOSTON is 8-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combine average of 244.6 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 15-3 OVER  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 242.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

Chicago has won 3 straight in this series, with all those games eclipsing this offered total.  Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

Play on the over 

My projections estimate a combined score that reaches the mid 230s plus here.  With the Wolves defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert out because of suspension, Im betting the now healthy Lakers really push this pace and force a capable and willing Wolves group into a run and gun affair. 

The Lakers ranked 3rd in pace in the NBA this season and 6th in ppg offense and 20th in ppg allowed. (Lakers have gone over in 8 straight games)

The Wolves ranked 18th in ppg allowed and 8th in pace in the NBA and were in the top half of the league in scoring offense.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER   in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 247.9 ppg scored. (Lakers beat the Wolves 123-111 L/week)

MINNESOTA is 31-19 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more  of their shots are 30-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

The Bucks will be resting almost the entire core of their team, and Im betting that they will instead concentrate on playing a conservative defensive minded  game behind a coaching staff that recognizes the importance of being disciplined in transition entering post season play. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Also with a depleted lineup last time out the Bucks allowed the Grizzlies to pound down 137 points, they will be more aware here defensively  in this spot play vs the Toronto Raptors who could also rest a big portion of their team.Under is 10-4 in Bucks last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota has been off since Tuesday, and will have plenty of energy to run and gun here tonight vs what is usually a poor Spurs defense ranked last in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The Spurs  are off  129-127 win vs Portland last time out and run the 2nd ranked pace in the NBA and Im betting on more wide hoops tonight against a fresh Wolves side. 

Over is 7-3 in Timberwolves last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 35-16 in Timberwolves last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a straight up win.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio. 

Play on the over

Phoenix has won a season-high seven straight games entering this meeting against the Lakers, and Im betting will push the home team hard today in a tilt I have pegged to be a back forth event that will see aggressive offensive action. With this being a back to back situation for the Suns Im sure they wont get physical and their defense positioning  will suffer. I do also expect the Lakers  James and Anthony to suit up despite of being questionable . The Lakers are trying to avoid playing play in game so all decks should be on the agenda tonight. the most recent meeting  in this series sae a combined 233 points scored. Rinse and repeat . 

Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.

Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games.

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score of 225 ppg giving us almost a two two full possession edge on an under wager cashing. 

DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER  off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.

NBA team (DALLAS/CHICAGO) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 28-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 36-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

As Philadelphia prepares for a play off run, they have begun to hone their defensive skills and are not not running and gunning like they were during their mid season portion of their so far successful campaign. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed. the last time the 76ers played the Heat back on March 1st the held the Heat to just 96 points. MIAMI is 10-2 UNDER   in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210.3 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the Heat have gone  Under in 4 straight  road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 road games. Im betting on another lower scoring affair in this spot play.

Spoelstra in 280 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI has seen a combined average score of 202.4 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this Totals offering. The L/4 meetings in this series have also seen one of these teams not eclipse the 100 point plateau. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in April games are 94-50 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

When these teams played back on March 13 Oklahoma City grabbed a 124-120 win, but Im betting we do not reach the combined plateau in this tilt. It must be noted that the Suns are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive basketball, as is evident by allowing 105, 103, 100, and 93 points in their L/4 trips to the hardwood and will now not deviate from that strong transitional posture, making for what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. It must also be noted that PHOENIX is 21-9 UNDER  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 16-5 UNDER   revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 46-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 44-17 OVER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Atlanta took out Dallas 130-122 last time they met in Jan on the 18th. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs will in the rematch will not try to run and gun again against the Hawks, and Im betting will instead be more conservative in transition. DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER   in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 road games.

 DALLAS is 9-1 UNDER  after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored.

Kidd is 11-2 UNDER  after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 26-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

You have heard of slugfest , well this tilt Im betting wont be one of them. Get ready for a  Sleepfest  instead between to team with nothing left to play for other than a strong draft choice. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 home games.

Under is 7-0 in Pistons last 7 road games.

DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 lower tier teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 27-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a  90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (DETROIT) - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (118 PPG or more) are 64-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season/4th in defensive efficiency and rank 18th in pace, while the Bucks rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams can score in bunches but in this type of affair between two of the top teams in the NBA a more conservative defensive minded approach must be expected especially with the play offs around the corner. Also the Bucks played last night in run gun fashion posting 149-136 win so instant offensive regression and tired legs vs a strong defensive side will effect their aggressiveness here and overall output giving us an edge on a under wager. 

Under is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games playing with no rest. 

Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

MILWAUKEE in 57 games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in 18  games as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 227.3 ppg scored.

Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

BOSTON  in 18 road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 12-1 UNDER   on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams are 31-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Clippers always seem to play a more aggressive offensive style on the road, and Im betting nothing changes tonight against their hosts their explosive hosts the  Memphis Grizzlies. Over is 21-8 in Clippers last 29 road games.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.(Beat the Bulls 124-112 last time out)

Over is 18-7-1 in Grizzlies last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 overall.

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better  of their shots are 38-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play over

The Kings will need to ramp up their D here against a strong Boston side. The Kings  have done a decent job on defense for the most part of late, but did have a down effort defensively last time out allowing 128 points in a loss to the Jazz. SACRAMENTO is 39-21 UNDER  off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.Under is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Meanwhile, the Celtics rank 7th in ppg allowed and 4th in defensive rating and ranked 19th in pace, and will be primed to stand tall here defensively against an explosive side. 

Under is 18-8 in Kings last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 11-3 in Celtics last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 20-8 in Celtics last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.

BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 35-11 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 74-32 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento.

Play UNDER

Cleveland runs at a snails pace ranking 30th in the NBA and rank 1st in ppg allowed in the league and just 25th in ppg offense . CLEVELAND is 13-4 UNDER  in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons like Washington with a combined average of 209.2 ppg going on the board. Im betting Cleveland will control the pace of this game , which will result in a lower scoring affair. 

Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

CLEVELAND is 12-3 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.

Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Play UNDER

Orlando took out the Suns by a 114-97 count the last time they played this season back on Nov 11. Because of the style of hoops both sides play against comparative sides,  a under wager makes sense  , based on my own projections which estimate a total closer to 225. 

PHOENIX is 14-3 UNDER  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. 

ORLANDO is 11-3 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored..ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER   after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. The Magic played little or no D, in a ugly loss to San Antonio last time out, and the coaching staff was not impressed. Im expecting a more concerted and attentive effort in transition here tonight by the Magic.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 34-13 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Clippers are deliberate side, that ranks 24th in pace, and Im betting they will be even more conservative here in transition tonight against an explosive offensive opponent which will result in a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers estimate. 

Kerr is 21-8 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored.( Golden State took a 123-112 event vs the Suns last time out). 

LA CLIPPERS are 25-8 UNDER  in home games this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.

LA CLIPPERS are 21-6 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 50-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78
% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER

After playing a physical wide open game vs the Bucks last time out Im betting on an emotional letdown situation to rare its ugly head here tonight in Chicago for Sacramento. I also expect a more concerted defensive effort from the Kings after imploding defensively in the 2nd half of the above mentioned game vs the Bucks . Meanwhile the Bulls who rank 20th in offense and 10th and defense behind the 17th ranked pace will be especially careful in transition tonight vs an explosive side which will help us keep the combined score on the low side of the total. 

CHICAGO is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 210.5 ppg scored. 

CHICAGO is 11-2 UNDER when playing 3 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.4 going on the board.

Brown is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game as the coach of SACRAMENTO with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored. Donovan is 33-11 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with acombined average of 213.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 50-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

My projections estimate a combined score of 232, giving us tremendous value on this public totals offering. 

 MILWAUKEE is 26-11 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. 

SACRAMENTO is 15-7 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Pelicans have averaged just 107 ppg on offense in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and depend on being conservative on transition which results in slow placed games. The current 5 game run has see a combined average of just 218.8 ppg scored.  The Pelicans currently rank 8th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland has also had problems being consistent on offense of late , and despite of a big output last time out in a 120-119 loss to the 76ers  have seen 5 of their L/7 overall remain on the low side of the offered total. Im expecting offensive regression here especially with this being the Blazers 6th straight rad game. Im betting  their tired legs will have them not willing to take part in a run and gun affair, which the Pelicans dont want any part of anyway.  

Under is 6-0 in Pelicans last 6 overall.Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.NEW ORLEANS is 23-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 UNDER \ when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 31-17 UNDER  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 18-9 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 12-5 in Trail Blazers last 17 road games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 70-30 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored.

Play under

My projections make this total closer to 231 which gives us at least a two full possession value to the under.  Bostons well rested and with the play offs approaching  quickly will continue to hone their key defensive skills . Boston operates at the 20th ranked pace in the NBA and owns the 4th best defensive rating on the league. Note: Boston has gone under in 8 of their L/9 with 2 days rest and have gone under in 14 of their L/16 as 8 point or less road chalk. 

Atlanta has gone under in 8 of their L/9 as conference home dogs and are 0-5 under L/5 in this series vs Boston with the average combined score clicking in at 208.2 ppg. 

Snyder is 44-22 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 204.4 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored.BOSTON is 20-5 UNDER  when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 13-3 UNDER  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 15-7 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 52-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a win against a division rival are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Philly has really been ratcheting up their offense of late scoring an average of 124.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the court, and Im betting their aggressive offensive posture will continue here tonight against the Wolves who have allowed +115 ppg at home this season. Note: The 76ers have allowed more than 113 ppg on the road this season and my projections estimate a number closer to 114 for the Wolves offensive output. PHILADELPHIA is 16-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with the combined average of 254.6 ppg scored. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 250.8 ppg scored. (Philly took a 147-143 win vs Pacers last time out)

MINNESOTA is 25-7 OVER after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored.( Minnesota took out Sacramento last time out by a 138-134 count)

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5  ( MINNESOTA/ PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/27 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over 

Sacramento is off a exhausting back and forth game vs Minnesota last time out losing  a 138-134 dog fight  and will be in a natural letdown state here and  an obvious regressionary offensive output result could easily be the result . That Im betting directly effects this combined score to the under. Note: The Pelicans are banged up and their offensive flow is off, as is evident by averaging 105.4 ppg in their L/5 overall and have failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in 2 of thier L/3. The Pelicans have also gone under the total in 6 of their L/7 and  20-5 UNDER  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg. I know the Kings have revenge on board for a DD loss to the Pelicans back on Feb 5th but it must also be noted that NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 77-39 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 30-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games are 60-30 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Houstons 10 division games this season have seen a combined average of. 224.2 ppg scored. The Rockets rank 29th in ppg offense and rank 15th in pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio is banged up and has scored an average of just over 108 ppg in their L/5 as they have slowed down their pace perspicaciously and focused alot more on on paying attention defensively in transition. Everything points to this being lower scoring than the lines-makers offered number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG are 70-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Play under 

Memphis ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season, while Denver ranks 12th in ppg allowed along with a pace that ranks 19th in the league. My projections estimate a Total that should be closer to 230 giving us a 2 possession advantage to the under on this offering.

Under is 9-3-1 in Nuggets last 13 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. (Denver poured down 133 points in a win vs Houston last time out and now a regression from a offensive standpoint is expected)

Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 13-3-1 in Grizzlies last 17 overall.

MEMPHIS in 10 games  as a road underdog this season have seen a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 27-14 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 26-8 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 24-10 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 228.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 49-10 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings.

Play on the UNDER

Both the Jazz and Thunder have been short-handed since the All-Star break and its interrupted their offensive flow. Utah has seen all 3 game they have played since the all star game stay under the total, and Im betting this contest will also fall below the lines-makers projections. 

OKLAHOMA CITY  in their L/13  home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season   have seen a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

San Antonio is banged up with a boatload full of injures and that in itself is effecting their offensive flow. as is evident  by averaging just over 107 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood and currently rank 28th in ppg offense in the NBA. The kind of hoops they are playing  because of their short handed status must be framed as "survival mode" .  So their pace has slowed down precipitously, as well as their aggressiveness in transition. Tonight against Indiana side that ranks just  21st in offensive efficiency, Im expecting a much slower and lower scoring  game than the lines-makers expect .

INDIANA is 13-3 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.2 ppg. scored. INDIANA is 19-9 UNDERafter playing a road game this season with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - off a road win, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 80-42 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 68-30 L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

These two sides are separated by one loss in the tight Western Conference standings and tonight as both jostle for play off positioning you can bet that a close physical game could easily be on the agenda. I know they played a wide open game last time they met in early Feb, but that was then and this is now and the situation has changed. 

GOLDEN STATE is 17-5 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Under is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-1-2 in Trail Blazers last 11 Tuesday games. Under is 5-1-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Trail Blazers last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 8-3 in Trail Blazers last 11 road games.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND/ GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Tuesday nights are 47-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

Spurs enter on. a-horrendous losing run and are now in full tank mode as they play with little or no ambition or energy , as is evident by only 108.6 ppg on average  in their L/5 most recent games. Im betting they play survival hoops here tonight against a side that outguns them whihc Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. 

SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 UNDER   after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.6 ppg scored. 

UTAH is 24-11 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

UTAH is 32-17 UNDER (+13.3 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.

Under is 17-7-1 in Jazz last 25 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 home game. Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 48-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 66-27 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections make this total closer to 231 which gives us a full three possession edge to the under. 

Dallas is ranked 29th in pace in the league and 12th in ppg allowed and 18th in ppg offense. Meanwhile, Pacers rank 21st in offensive efficiency .  

DALLAS is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. DALLAS is 11-2 UNDER in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average 212.5 ppg scored. Kidd is 32-18 UNDER  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored.

INDIANA is 19-9 UNDER  in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - in non-conference games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 43-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA t where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Knicks offense is hitting on all cylinders of late and their D, is also standing tall. The Celtics who rank 20th in pace and 7th in ppg allowed  are well aware of the Knicks current form, and will be primed to buckle down in transition, which Im betting limits the Knicks offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Knicks who rank 28th in pace in the league and 9th in ppg allowed will also be formidable defenders in a game that Im betting will be physical /grinding and lower scoring.  BOSTON is 11-1 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 11-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 53-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 3 straight games are 81-39 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Take no prisoners all out one way hoops is what Minnesota has implemented in last season games for a while, now is as is evident by the following trends. MINNESOTA is 10-0 OVER  in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.7 ppg scored. Finch is 13-0 OVER  in road games in February games as the coach of MINNESOTA with a combined average of 249.8 ppg scored. Minnesota is  5-0 OVER L5 conf games  and are 5-0 L/5 OVER  awa .

Golden State is banged up but there is still enough talent to soldier forward and put points on the board, especially against. side that will come out firing bullets and force them into a wide open affair. GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 OVER  after a win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 239.1 ppg scored. (Beat Golden State 116-100 last time out)

 Golden State is  8-0-2 OVER L/10 playing  on Sundays  and  15-1  OVER   after a day off   Series These teams have combined for a  (236.5 ) in their L/9 meetings.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Golden State.

Play on the over 

Philadelphia is 3rd in ppg allowed this season behind a slow pace that ranks them 26th in the NBA. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed and 20th in pace. Today in a elite NBA eastern conference tilt Im expecting a physical battle that helps keep this score on the low side of the Total. 

BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored.  BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.3 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA  in their L/44 games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 212.4 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game are 45-17 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

My projections place this total closer to 231 giving us a full two possession value to the under on this totals offering.  

Memphis owns the No.1 ranked defensive efficiency rating in the league. Denver ranks 19th in pace. 

MEMPHIS is 25-8 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230  MEMPHIS/(DENVER) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana beat the Celtics as road dogs earlier this season, and now the Celtics will have redemption in mind and which usually centers on them playing their best form of defensive basketball. BOSTON in 12 games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 220.1 ppg scored..BOSTON  in  8 games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season have allowed that opponent in the rematch to score an average of 108.3 ppg while themselves have also average roughly 108.1 points for a combined average of 216.4 ppg. 

BOSTON is 15-6 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season.with the average combined score clicking in at 223.4 ppg. BOSTON is 12-4 UNDER  in road games versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season with the combined average score of 226.5 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 7-0 UNDER in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season with a combined average 219.1 ppg. BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 228.8 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 home games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Celtics played last night, which sets up a trend that shows them going over the set total in their L/6 home games with no rest and overall they are 6-0 over vs sides with a .300 win percentage or less like visiting Motown. With this.being both sides, last game before the all star game, Im betting this will be a wide open affair as both sides will see no reason to pace themselves. The Pistons have gone over in 4 straight before extended rest. 

BOSTON iin thier L/23 games as a favorite of 10 or more points on the opening line over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 73-36 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Last 5 meetings in Boston have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

My projections make this total closer to 231 thus giving us an almost 2  full possession advantage to the under. The Suns are in a jet lag situation after a 5 game road trip and may take time to acclimated to home cooking . Note: The Suns are ranked 5th in ppg allowed and 22nd ranked pace and will primed to try to slow down their run and gun opponents.

SACRAMENTO is 10-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 7-0 UNDER   in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO  in 27    road games this season have seen a combined average of 231.1 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 14-4 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or better- 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 15-7 UNDER  as a home favorite this season

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Playing on tired legs will have Orlando at a disadvantage from a transitional standpoint and that Im betting will lead to them giving up some extra points beyond what the lines-makers are projecting. Over is 8-3 in Magic last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. Over is 17-8 in Magic last 25 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day

TORONTO is 19-7 OVER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored.

Nurse is 25-12 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of TORONTO with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in February games are 43-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 49-24 L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto

Play on the over 

Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 overall

The Magic and Bulls are both off losses, in what were low scoring affairs. Both are playing solid d, and with the Bulls looking especially tired Im betting on a slower grinding type game here as well. The Bulls rank 9th in defensive efficiency on the league, behind a 14th ranked pace, and have gone under in 10 of their L/12 overall while, the Magic rank 19th in pace and own the 27th ranked offensive output and have gone under in 4 straight and 6 of their L/7 overall. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER  in road games off a home loss this season.with a combined average of 216 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 13-5 UNDER  off a road loss this season with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. 

CHICAGO is 34-19 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons are 219.7 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 35-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 115-66 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago

Play on the UNDER

The Rockets' defense was in good form last time out against the  Heat in a 97-95 loss. However, that  has not been the case in four previous losses -- 117-111 to the Toronto Raptors, 153-121 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 140-120 to the Sacramento Kings and 130-128 to the Kings. Im betting they regress here into their former state and also progress offensively after that last outing, which will produce a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. These teams took part in a 132-123 Houston win back on dec 5th of the season. Im sure the Sixers will ramp up their energy here in revenge mode and will be prepared to bring down the hammer and merciless fashion which will also aid our quest for cashing an over ticket. 

Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Over is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Over is 8-1 in 76ers last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 9-2 in 76ers last 11 home games.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-3 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 20-7 OVER (after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, off a win against a division rival are 26-4 OVER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Two quality teams who can light up the board, but also play a top tier brand of D, go head to head in NBA afternoon tilt. The combination of this tilt having expectations of being a grinding style post season type affair, and  the early start time which  play havoc with both sides energy levels making this an outlook that leans on this tilt staying on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 Sunday games.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games.Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.

MEMPHIS is 13-5 UNDER ) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 19-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Two quality teams who can light up the board, but also play a top tier brand of D, go head to head in NBA afternoon tilt. The combination of this tilt having expectations of being a grinding style post season type affair, and  the early start time which  play havoc with both sides energy levels making this an outlook that leans on this tilt staying on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 Sunday games.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games.Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.

MEMPHIS is 13-5 UNDER ) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 19-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Heat recorded 110-105 decision against the Magic on Jan. 27 and the offered total is now mimicking that score. However, tonight Im betting on that number being eclipsed as the Heat play on tired legs after being in action last night. Note: Miami is 14-2 OVER away when playing with no rest. Last night the Heat also played a grinding affair that was low scoring squeaking out a 97-95 victory and now will be ready to get their offense rolling against instate rivals Orlando, a side that is on one days rest and 8-1 OVER facing unrested opposition.Over is 16-7-1 in the last 24 meetings in Orlando.Over is 7-0 in Magic last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points which was the case last time out. 

Play over

My projections make this total closer to 231 giving us a two possession edge on this current offering. 

Denver runs at a slow 20th ranked pace while Minnesota ranks 20th in ppg offense and have gone under in 8 of the L/9 .

MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

DENVER is 44-20 UNDER L/64 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average 200 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-14 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - vs. division opponents, off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 91-57 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Without the injured Curry in the lineup Im betting the Warriors offensively flow will be negatively effected which will also effect this totals offering to the low side . The Thunder have seen 6 of their L/9 games stay on the low side of the Total. 

Under is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 road games.Under is 7-2 in Thunder last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

GOLDEN STATE is 17-4 UNDER (  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 62-23 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings.

Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Golden State.

Play UNDER

Nine of the L/10 meetings in this series have not seen todays offered number eclipsed and Im betting nothing changes today. The L/4 most recent matchups have seen a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. Note: Dallas ranks 29th in pace in the NBA and 8th in ppg allowed, and will look to slow down a Jazz side that ranks 14th in pace, and that has gone over the offered total only twice in their L/7 games overall. Im betting on the Mavs putting us to sleep here and for this to be a slow grinding affair. 

Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 home games.

Play UNDER

Over is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day which was the case in the OT loss to the Clippers last night. Over is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Philly is 6-0 over a division road fav last two seasons. 

Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points which was the case last time out in a 137-125 win vs the Spurs. Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record like the Knicks. . Knicks have gone over in 7 straight division tilts. 

PHILADELPHIA is 29-11 OVER  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW YORK) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 32-9 OVER  L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBAl teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game.   are 40-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

Dallas behind the 29th ranked  pace in the league  and 7th best ppg D, will be primed to slow down the run and gun Golden State Warriors tonight as road underdogs. This results in a lower scoring game than many of the pundits might expect. On the flipside the Warriors viable 3 point D, will also highlight this lower than expected combined score. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Miami has defeated the Bucks twice already this season in physical lower scoring  altercations, and Im betting nothing changes today. Miami won 108-102 and 111- 95 and a rinse and repeat type of score is being projected by me for this spot play. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-3 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.MILWAUKEE is 8-1 UNDER   after 4 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER after playing 3 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

The Spurs offense is struggling mightily of late averaging just 107 .4 ppg in their L/5 trips to the court. This team as a whole looks winded and Im betting things wont get much better tonight vs a 76ers side that ranks 4th in ppg allowed in the league behind a deliberate 23red ranked pace. 

Note: The Spurs upset the 76ers way back in Oct of this season, but now with redemption at hand Im betting Philly will be wide awake here and ready to play a top tier brand of hoops tonight. 

Rivers is 35-19 UNDER (  in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 201.8 ppg scored.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 UNDER in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 UNDER   after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg going on the board. 

NBA  team (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 10 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 62-27 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNDER 

These two struggling teams see this as an opportunity for a rare win, so Im betting on this being a very physical hard fought affair that stays on the low side of the number.

Under is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 home games.

DETROIT is 28-14 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or more - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 56-31 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two struggling  defensive teams ( 118 or more PPG) are 50-18 UNDER L/26 seasons for a  75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

New Orleans has lost 9 straight behind a struggling offense that has averaged just 105 ppg in their L/5 overall trips to the court.On the flipside the Mavs have picked up their defensive game of late and allowed just 102.7 ppg in their L/3 tilts overall. today Im betting the Pelicans offensive struggles to persist and for the Mavs to continue to ramp up defensively. 

Kidd is 10-1 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 206 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or less of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. 

DALLAS is 10-1 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 season with a combined average of 198.5 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 23-8 UNDER in home games off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.3 ppg. 

 ORLEANS is 25-13 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Sixers let a 21-point lead disappear as they lost 119-109 to the Magic on Monday. Now in the rematch game, Im betting the Sixers D, will be ready to rebound after the lazy effort they put forward in their last game . note: The Sixers ranks 23rd in pace and 4th in ppg defense. 

ORLANDO is 17-7 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 33-19 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 40-15 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Clippers enter this game playing alot of fairly high scoring affairs as their usually staunch defense fails them. Only 1 of their L/8 games has stayed on the low side of the total and they have gone over in 4 straight tilts. The clippers have gone over the set total in 18 of their 27 road games this season. The Clippers are coming off Sunday's 122-99 loss at Cleveland, which snapped a season-best five-game winning streak, but now Im expecting a more aggressive offensive attack will highlight their bounce back effort, forcing Chicago into opening up in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this  offered totals number. 

My. projections estimate both sides will at least hit  114 points in production. Note: CHICAGO is 13-0 OVER   where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 251.9 ppg scored.

LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 OVER  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season with 232.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 OVER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 10-1 OVER  in road games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 235.7 ppg scored.

CHICAGO  L/  43  non-conference games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored with their L/5 non conference home games eclipsing the offered total. 

Play over

Atlanta continues to play one way run and gun basketball with a combined average 243.2 ppg scored in their L/5 trips to the court. My projections estimate both Portland and Atlanta will eclipse a 114 team scoring plateau which gives credence to a over bet here as ATLANTA is 17-2 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 249 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 10-1 OVER  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 241 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 51-21 OVER L/26 seasons for 70% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

The Suns have played teams like the wreck-less Spurs with a tough defensive mind set and nothing will change tonight as the home side continues to try to play a more physical type of game which is bucking the new wide open trend in the league. the suns have held their L/2 opponents to under 100 points and have gone under in 4 straight tilts.  None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this totals offering. PHOENIX is 11-2 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 220.5 ppg going on the board. PHOENIX is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season with a combined average of 215.8 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Suns last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 9-3 in Suns last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 5-2 in Suns last 7 Saturday games.Under is 9-4 in Suns last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 37-18-1 in Suns last 56 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play UNDER 

Pistons got involved in a consecutive high scoring games while scoring an astounding 130 points in both tilts and are now on tired legs and ready for immediate regression on offense. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect.   Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 120 points or more are 36-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Play under 

Im betting on a hard fought affair between big apple rivals today in a game my projections estimate to go under the set total. None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this totals offering.

BROOKLYN is 9-0 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season. BROOKLYN is 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.

Play UNDER

The Bucks rank 18th in offense in the NBA and 6th in ppg allowed and 4th in defensive rating behind a 15th ranked pace. The Bucks Bobby Portis is expected to be out tonight and their offensive flow could easily be off here without his chemistry in the lineup, thus limiting the Bucks explosiveness .After  a successful defensive display by the Bucks  against Denver in a  107-99 win last time out, a similar defensive  formula Im betting will used to slow down the run and gun Pacers who despite of decent offensive output rank just 24th in offensive efficiency. Advantage under.

Under is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games following a straight up win. Under is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 22-8 in Bucks last 30 road games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 111-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 31-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.

Play UNDER

Spurs will be on tired legs tonight after suffering a loss last night to the LA Lakers and their 3rd road game in 5 nights.  With that said, Im betting on a muted offensive output against a viable D that ranks 3rd in the league in ppg allowed as well as 25th in pace , and that will contribute to a score that does not eclipse this total. Note:   Clippers in their  L14 conference games as hosts have seen only one game eclipse the total. 

LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 206.5 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 UNDER   in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 18-3 UNDER  ) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or more this season. LA CLIPPERS are 20-4 UNDER in home games this season with a combined average of 212.2 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 9-0 UNDER   in home games after playing a road game this season with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 37-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER

Pacers played last night and are now on tired legs. Indiana 7-0 OVER  with no rest vs conference opposition and that will Im betting once again be the case tonight. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.

Meanwhile, Orlando dominated the NBA-leading Boston Celtics on Monday, 113-98, behind a balanced offensive effort and stifling defensive performance and now in a regressionary state will find it hard to muster up as much physicality as last time which Im betting results in mucho chances for their opposition in transition. Over is 6-0 in Magic last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

Over is 9-1 in Magic last 10 games following a ATS win.Over is 6-1 in Magic last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.INDIANA is 18-5 OVER in road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 241 ppg scored in those 23 tilts. 

INDIANA is 27-14 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 239.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ORLANDO) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-18 OVER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play over 

After putting only 90 points on the board in a loss to Dallas last time out on the road, Im now betting on more aggressive Heat performance in the offensive end of the court. In a recent effort the Heat beat the Pelicans by a 123-99 count and Im expecting a similar output here today and for the Pelicans to have to open up to keep pace in a game I have projected to eclipse this total.

NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 OVER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 133.8 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 OVER   when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. 

Over is 8-3 in Pelicans last 11 road games.

Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games following a straight up loss. Miami has gone over in 5 straight games at home in 1/1 rest situation  vs non-conference opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - off an upset loss of 15 points or more as a road favorite are 29-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

The Cavaliers crashed and burned last night as favorites as they their defense failed them. Im betting things wont get much better tonight, and in return the Cavs will have to open up against a foe that can put points on the board in hurry. Everything points to the Cavs tired legs not allowing them to be physical and for Milwaukee to push forward with extreme prejudice which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. 

CLEVELAND is 15-7 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-1 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 233.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 36-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 33-10 L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

After a hard fought affair in Boston last night the Warriors will be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun vs a Cleveland side that will be primed to slow this game down to a pace they they can handle. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of this offering. note: Cleveland ranks 30th in pace in No.1 in ppg allowed in the league.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-9 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.8 ppg. 

CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER  in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 29-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 The Clippers have gone  9-0 OVER L/9 on the road vs sub par .500 opposition like the Jazz  and have eclipsed the total in 10 of their L/12 with not  rest vs non-division  foes  like the Jazz.( clippers played Philly last night and will now be on tired legs and less prepared to play a defensive affair vs a run and gun opponent in Salt Lake city tonight.  Meanwhile,  Utah: 5-0 OVER home vs unrested opposition like the Clippers and  only 1 of their  L8 meetings vs the Clippers has failed to eclipse the total. 

Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.

Over is 12-3-1 in Clippers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Over is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 overall.

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%or more  of their shots are 82-44 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

These teams have a recent history of playing physical defensive affairs here at the Staples Center as is evident by the under cashing in the Nuggets last 5 visits to LA to play the Clippers with a combined average score  (200.4 ppg)  going on the board. Denver has recently played a long series of home games (four on a row) and when this has happened recently the Nuggets have gone under in 8 of their L/9 tilts overall ( after 4 or more straight as hosts). Meanwhile, the Clippers have gone under in 11 of their L/12  in 2/1 rest situation and  have gone  under in  9 of their L/10  against  .600  or better  conf opposition. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this offered total.Also the  Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 36-13-2 in Nuggets last 51 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 22-5-1 in Clippers last 28 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Back on Nov 14 the Spurs were clobbered by the Warriors by a 132-95 count. Im betting this time around the Spurs  HC Popovich will try to slow this game down in a redemption scenario. This will directly effect this score to the under. Yes, I know these teams Ds, do not look viable, but this number is still  slightly bloated according to my projections . 

Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Under is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Under is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER  L/52 in road games versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored.  .

GOLDEN STATE is 25-11 UNDER  when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.8 ppg . 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 47-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the UNDER

Im betting Boston and Brooklyn who are two top tier  heavy weight teams will conservatively and physically turn this into a grinding affair rather than a  run and gun battle which is not abnormal for matchups like this. The Celtics are ranked 9th in defensive efficiency and 16th in pace, while the Nets rank 5th in ppg allowed while ranking 21st in pace. Im betting on this being a rock fight and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the total. 

BROOKLYN is 17-2 UNDER versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons are 220.7 ppg.  

BROOKLYN is 11-2 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined 216.3 ppg scored.

BROOKLYN is 8-0 UNDER   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or more turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg.

BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 222.2 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 49-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBAteams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Cleveland has seen a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored on the road this season in 19 games, and always seem to play at a more deliberate  pace away from home  while paying special attention to defense in transition. That will definitely be the game plan vs a run and gun opponent Utah. With my projections estimates coming in a 224 I feel we have a comfortable one possession plus cushion to the under. . 

Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

 CLEVELAND is 27-13 UNDER   when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 214.6 ppg scored.

Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Utah with none of the games eclisping this current offering.

Play UNDER

Toronto and Charlotte both have  both struggled . Charlotte is ranked 27th in ppg defense, behind the 7th ranked pace, so when they  are hitting shots like they did against Milwaukee recently they poured down 139 points in a win.  I now expect the Hornets to once again do some damage tonight as Im also betting the Raptors pedestrian offense will hit above their season average as they are forced into opening up with this totals number being eclipsed.

Clifford is 12-1 OVER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 241.7 ppg scored. 

Nurse is 23-11 OVER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game as the coach of TORONTO with a combined an average of 232.1 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER

Clippers play a strong defensive brand of basketball at home as is evident by   16-3 UNDER record in home games this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER  in home games after playing a road game this season which is the case here tonight with the average combined score of 207.7 ppg scored. CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board. I know Atlanta will push forward here, but the clippers will hold them back in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. 

LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 UNDER   in home games versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better  this season with a combined average of 208.8 ppg scored. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Portland ihas become more defensively-oriented as time has progressed  . Meanwhile,  Toronto  plays a mugging style of physical basketball that features a strong defense and  less than explosive  offense.

The Trail Blazers have the 12th-best scoring defence in the NBA and are ranked just 20th-best points per game average. The Raptors rank 11th in point against  defence and 26th in offensive production and 27th in pace  .  Im betting on grinding affair lower scoring affair. 

PORTLAND is 8-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. 

PORTLAND is 32-19 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers played last night and captured a win, (130-114) and now on tired legs as they play. back to back affairs, Im betting their strategy will not be a run and gun program, but instead a more defensive minded game plan out of transition that will skew this totals offering to the low side of the lines-makers estimates. Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

LA LAKERS in 7  division games  this season have seen a combined average of 227 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Saturday games are 46-14 OVER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - being called for 21 or less fouls/game on the season, on Saturday games are 61-26 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Both these teams have played some wide open games of late, both are defensively deficient, but when sub par teams like San Antonio and Detroit go head to head there is a history of fairly low scoring events. One of  the key reasons for these lower scoring affairs is because they are usually more physical as both teams know they have a rare winnable game in their grasp, and the play becomes intense . 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO /DETROIT) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 sub par teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 25-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - struggling defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

DETROIT is 19-9 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER 

analysis to follow thank you for your patience 

NBA team (ORLANDO) - playing on back-to-back days, a sub par team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 94-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

NBA team (MEMPHIS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

The Celtics' defense allowed the Nuggets to shoot 57 percent from the floor (45-for-79) and 56.7 percent from 3-point range (17-for-30) in a loss at Denver last time out, and will now be focused on playing much better D tonight vs the Oklahoma city Thunder. From a  offensive stand point, Celtics have have really been struggling from beyond the arc  and failed to eclipse the 35 percent  plateau in six of their last eight tilts and have shot below 30 percent from behind the arc in five of those games. Im betting on these two above mentioned expected defensive  modifications and trends to directly effect this combined score giving an edge to a  under wager cashing . 

Under is 9-4 in Thunder last 13 overall.

Under is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

BOSTON in their L/39 games  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 216.9 ppg going on the board.

BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. 

NBA   teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 120 points or more are 52-20 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

After an extended 7 game home stand going into the high altitudes of the  Mile High City is not an easy task, and Im betting that will hamper the Celtics ability to play all out back and forth  hoops and instead I expect their quality D ranked 7th in defensive efficiency , to stand tall here and for the visitor to play conservative minded in transition. I know Denvers weakness is on D, and the Celtics are explosive offensively, but like I said above the high altitudes after a long home stand will effect their ability to be as aggressive as usual which will directly effect this Total not being eclipsed. Note: The Celtics rank 16th in pace while the Nuggets rank 20th. 

BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER  in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.

BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.

DENVER is 12-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons are with a combined average of 229.3 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Memphis is playing a top tier brand of defensive  basketball and Im betting they will dictate the pace and continue to operate with vigilance in transition. The Grizzlies rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Meanwhile, after playing Philadelphia last night and capturing a win via a strong all out effort at home, Im betting on a letdown effort here and for their offense to be limited. MEMPHIS is 18-5 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. Green is 11-1 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-9 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for 87% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Sacramento played a back forth game vs Denver day before yesterday and took a 127-126 victory. Im now betting they are in a letdown mode , and physically tired and not ready to run and gun here tonight vs a Jazz side off two straight upset defeats . Im now betting the Jazz will  be ready to play a better brand of disciplined defensive hoops. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 Friday games.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-2 in Kings last 9 games following a straight up win.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 116-52 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 80-40 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projected total for this tilt featuring Atlanta and Brooklyn comes in at 229 which gives a two full possession value to the under on this offering. Brooklyn ranks 8th in ppg allowed and. operate at the 21st ranked pace in the NBA. Atlanta ranks in 14th in defensive efficiency. 

Under is 11-4 in Nets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 12-4 in Hawks last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

ATLANTA is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg. 

BROOKLYN is 34-21 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg. BROOKLYN is 25-10 UNDER  after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN/ATLANTA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The New Orleans Pelicans have been missing some of their best players, and  have stepped up and played quality ball.  This Pelicans team has taken part in a lot of back and forth offensive hoops , but it must be noted that they are ranked 6h in defensive efficiency in the league. Meanwhile, Indiana has also played well of late and its their defense that has been the catalyst . Because of added focus to paying attention to defense in transition, they have allowed 112, 108 points in two marquee wins vs Boston and Miami respectively and Im betting that will stick their winning game plan tonight  vs another top tier side and because of this Im betting the expected offensive output will not be eclipsed. 

Pacers are 8-3 UNDER L/11 overall. 

Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 road games.Under is 17-7-1 in Pacers last 25 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 18-7-1 in Pelicans last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER  in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg.

NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 100-49 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-35 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Lakers on the road- run and gun with wreck-less abandon and are usually punished defensively because their not focusing on their defensive responsibilities  in transition.  Overall they rank 2nd in pace in the league. They are scoring an average of 115.2 ppg game this season but rank 26th in in ppg allowed  and on the road allow a whopping 121.7 ppg on the campaign.  Dallas is the kind of team that  can- really roll up points in a hurry against this type of side behind super star Doncic. Im betting on a much quicker pace and a  more explosive offensive game than many might expect here on Christmas day. . 

LA LAKERS  in  8  road games where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 232 points per game scored.LA LAKERS are 36-22 OVER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 12-3 OVER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 road games.Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-3 in Lakers last 12 overall.Over is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play over