Im betting Miami comes out here ready to leave everything on the floor in last ditch effort to stave off elimination and that alone will elevate their expected point total. Meanwhile the capable Nuggets playing on their own home floor with championship aspirations just a victory away will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

MIAMI in their L/35 games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 26-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play over

When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER   off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.  Malone is 15-5 OVER  off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MIAMI is 20-11 OVER  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play over

After a grueling 7 game series vs the Celtics the Heat will be on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown spot, that will have them unable to play a physical style of defensive ball. On the flip side the Nuggets are well rested and healthy and should come out here on fire ready to run and gun.   This combination Im betting will see this Totals offering eclipsed in more wide open game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The Celtics in their last two games  are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial  noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late,  the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total. 

LA LAKERS are 30-17 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 48-33 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER  L/27 seasons for a  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play over

Because the Lakers are backed into the proverbial corner after going down 2-0 in this series Im betting they come here in aggressive run and gun fashion and the Nuggets will have no choice but  to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks  of their own or be blown of the court. Advantage to the over.

Note: LA LAKERS  in their L/36 games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

The Nuggets came out of gate in game 1 running and gunning , but looked a little weary in the 2nd half of that tilt with  the pace dropping perceptively and the Lakers adjusting on defense.  
Im betting on  a more even keeled game here with  key adjustments taking place on both sides of the court which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 11-4-1 in Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 11-3-1 in Nuggets last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 43-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA play off Game 2’s after a Game 1 over result , have seen the  under go 41-26 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors  in the last five seasons. 

Play under

The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in  transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. 

LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 42-23 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER   when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER   when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over.

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER  in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER  )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play over

This matchup according to my projections estimate a combined score that eclipses this totals offering and should be closer to 211. Thanks to the Knicks top tier defensive play against another defensive minded team the Cleveland Cavs in their last series this total is now a little tainted in my opinion and offers value for over bettors even if key offensive cog- Randle misses this game for the Knicks.  

NEW YORKs L/10 games  after 3 or more consecutive unders this season a combined score of 218.9 ppg have gone on the scoreboard.

NEW YORK is 17-7 OVER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 10-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 3 straight games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Play on the over

We are getting into clutch time in this series, and Im now betting we begin to see a more physical type of basketball that leans on the conservative side. My own projections make this game closer to a 231 which gives us almost two full possessions value on this line offering from the books to the under. 

Under is 20-8-1 in Kings last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 home games.SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combine average of 230.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER   in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 UNDER  in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER   in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 41-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 71-28 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

I know these sides have eclipsed the total in 7 straight meetings and there are a ton of over trends. However, Im betting that the Heat will be in bubble mode tonight and will be conservative in transition knowing that the Bucks will come at them with everything they have. That in itself bodes well for a score that does not eclipse this total. 

The Heat are 2nd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace in the league and 30th in ppg production and  we  will see why these stats had been established this season, MIAMI is 14-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI/MILWAUKEE ) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average score of those 34 tilts clicking in at 202.4 ppg. 

Play under 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Afternoon pro basketball can sometimes be a little bit slower and low scoring as it takes time for bodies that are used to playing most of their games in the evening to get acclimated to early starts . However, this total is just a little bit over done to the low side according to my estimates even though these two sides have taken part in 3 lower scoring affairs . ( My totals projection took into consideration that NEW YORK is 20-10 OVER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored and that in Cleveland last  14 games  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Also Bickerstaff  in 8 road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

Play over

My projections make this total closer to 235 which gives us close to 2 full possession advantage to the  under. 

SACRAMENTO is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored . 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with combined average  off 228 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season with s combined 216 ppg scored.  GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER   after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 219 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 54-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

Play on the under

Philadelphia poured down 121 points in game 1 for the hefty DD win. The Nets will now have to become more aggressive offensively, while the Sixers will have not problem obliging them with a full blown offensive attack in response. BROOKLYN is 15-5 OVER  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 28-9 OVER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 OVER  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this seasons with combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 77-36 OVER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 56-25 OVER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Entering the play offs Atlanta s offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 123.6 ppg in their L/5 trips the court, and Im betting they will for the most part keep up that  tiop tier offensive pace tonight in Boston . We know Boston is a solid defensive side, but when pressured can turn up their offense, and thats what Im betting the Celtics will be forced into doing today. BOSTON is 8-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combine average of 244.6 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 15-3 OVER  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 242.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

Chicago has won 3 straight in this series, with all those games eclipsing this offered total.  Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

Play on the over 

My projections estimate a combined score that reaches the mid 230s plus here.  With the Wolves defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert out because of suspension, Im betting the now healthy Lakers really push this pace and force a capable and willing Wolves group into a run and gun affair. 

The Lakers ranked 3rd in pace in the NBA this season and 6th in ppg offense and 20th in ppg allowed. (Lakers have gone over in 8 straight games)

The Wolves ranked 18th in ppg allowed and 8th in pace in the NBA and were in the top half of the league in scoring offense.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER   in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 247.9 ppg scored. (Lakers beat the Wolves 123-111 L/week)

MINNESOTA is 31-19 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more  of their shots are 30-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

The Bucks will be resting almost the entire core of their team, and Im betting that they will instead concentrate on playing a conservative defensive minded  game behind a coaching staff that recognizes the importance of being disciplined in transition entering post season play. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Also with a depleted lineup last time out the Bucks allowed the Grizzlies to pound down 137 points, they will be more aware here defensively  in this spot play vs the Toronto Raptors who could also rest a big portion of their team.Under is 10-4 in Bucks last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota has been off since Tuesday, and will have plenty of energy to run and gun here tonight vs what is usually a poor Spurs defense ranked last in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The Spurs  are off  129-127 win vs Portland last time out and run the 2nd ranked pace in the NBA and Im betting on more wide hoops tonight against a fresh Wolves side. 

Over is 7-3 in Timberwolves last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 35-16 in Timberwolves last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a straight up win.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio. 

Play on the over

Phoenix has won a season-high seven straight games entering this meeting against the Lakers, and Im betting will push the home team hard today in a tilt I have pegged to be a back forth event that will see aggressive offensive action. With this being a back to back situation for the Suns Im sure they wont get physical and their defense positioning  will suffer. I do also expect the Lakers  James and Anthony to suit up despite of being questionable . The Lakers are trying to avoid playing play in game so all decks should be on the agenda tonight. the most recent meeting  in this series sae a combined 233 points scored. Rinse and repeat . 

Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.

Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games.

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score of 225 ppg giving us almost a two two full possession edge on an under wager cashing. 

DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER  off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.

NBA team (DALLAS/CHICAGO) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 28-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 36-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

As Philadelphia prepares for a play off run, they have begun to hone their defensive skills and are not not running and gunning like they were during their mid season portion of their so far successful campaign. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed. the last time the 76ers played the Heat back on March 1st the held the Heat to just 96 points. MIAMI is 10-2 UNDER   in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210.3 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the Heat have gone  Under in 4 straight  road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 road games. Im betting on another lower scoring affair in this spot play.

Spoelstra in 280 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI has seen a combined average score of 202.4 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this Totals offering. The L/4 meetings in this series have also seen one of these teams not eclipse the 100 point plateau. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in April games are 94-50 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

When these teams played back on March 13 Oklahoma City grabbed a 124-120 win, but Im betting we do not reach the combined plateau in this tilt. It must be noted that the Suns are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive basketball, as is evident by allowing 105, 103, 100, and 93 points in their L/4 trips to the hardwood and will now not deviate from that strong transitional posture, making for what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. It must also be noted that PHOENIX is 21-9 UNDER  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 16-5 UNDER   revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 46-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 44-17 OVER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Atlanta took out Dallas 130-122 last time they met in Jan on the 18th. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs will in the rematch will not try to run and gun again against the Hawks, and Im betting will instead be more conservative in transition. DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER   in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 road games.

 DALLAS is 9-1 UNDER  after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored.

Kidd is 11-2 UNDER  after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 26-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Thee teams can light up the board, but in this type of game defense is what will bring home the victory. Im betting on a grueling physical 

 defensive event that will remain on the low side of the total. Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

CONNECTICUT is 7-1 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 133.6 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 15-6 UNDER  in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 140.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 134.9 ppg scored. 

- Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 23-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

 Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 178-012 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

You have heard of slugfest , well this tilt Im betting wont be one of them. Get ready for a  Sleepfest  instead between to team with nothing left to play for other than a strong draft choice. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 home games.

Under is 7-0 in Pistons last 7 road games.

DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 lower tier teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 27-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a  90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (DETROIT) - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (118 PPG or more) are 64-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Blazers are yet again one of the highest scoring teams in the country under Andy Kennedy and have successfully in their  two most recent  meetings this season been able to force N.Texas into opening up as is evident by a 76-69 Neutral court win last time they met in the Conference play offs, and their last regular season game that saw  N.Texas procure a 82-79 victory. 

Both these teams are solid at the charity stripe, which is key to this over bet. 

 UAB is 9-1 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game this season.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (N.TEXAS/UAB) - in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game).are 44-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season/4th in defensive efficiency and rank 18th in pace, while the Bucks rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams can score in bunches but in this type of affair between two of the top teams in the NBA a more conservative defensive minded approach must be expected especially with the play offs around the corner. Also the Bucks played last night in run gun fashion posting 149-136 win so instant offensive regression and tired legs vs a strong defensive side will effect their aggressiveness here and overall output giving us an edge on a under wager. 

Under is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games playing with no rest. 

Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

MILWAUKEE in 57 games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in 18  games as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 227.3 ppg scored.

Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

BOSTON  in 18 road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 12-1 UNDER   on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams are 31-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Clippers always seem to play a more aggressive offensive style on the road, and Im betting nothing changes tonight against their hosts their explosive hosts the  Memphis Grizzlies. Over is 21-8 in Clippers last 29 road games.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.(Beat the Bulls 124-112 last time out)

Over is 18-7-1 in Grizzlies last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 overall.

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better  of their shots are 38-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play over

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.

CBB  Neutral court teams against the total (North TEXAS /WISCONSIN) - in a game involving two below average  offensive teams (63-67 PPG) are 36-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of 131.4 ppg going on the board.

Play over 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate both sides to eclipse the 70 point plateau giving us value with an over wager in todays NCAA matchup between Michigan State and Kansas State.

MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 OVER  after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season with a combined average of 1461. ppg scored. 

KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better  of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.1 ppg scored.

KANSAS ST is 8-1 OVER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.3 ppg scored.

KANSAS ST in their L/31 games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 147.6 ppg scored.

Play over

The Kings will need to ramp up their D here against a strong Boston side. The Kings  have done a decent job on defense for the most part of late, but did have a down effort defensively last time out allowing 128 points in a loss to the Jazz. SACRAMENTO is 39-21 UNDER  off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.Under is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Meanwhile, the Celtics rank 7th in ppg allowed and 4th in defensive rating and ranked 19th in pace, and will be primed to stand tall here defensively against an explosive side. 

Under is 18-8 in Kings last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 11-3 in Celtics last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 20-8 in Celtics last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.

BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 35-11 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 74-32 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections mkae this total closer to 128 giving us value with on over wager. 

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (N.Texas OKLAHOMA ST) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or better), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 30-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average  combined score clicking in at 136.9 ppg. 

Play over 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

TCU will not run and gun here today with a superior offense, and instead will be primed to turn this into a  grinding physical affair . The Horn Frogs have  slowed some of the most explosive offenses in the nation that come from the Big 12. TCU has allowed an average of 68 ppg this season. 

GONZAGA is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season . GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER in road games after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games this season.

TCU is 8-2 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. TCU is 10-1 UNDER  in March games over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GONZAGA/TCU) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

USC UPSTATE is 7-1 UNDER  in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season with a combined average of 134 ppg going on the board. Dickerson is 6-0 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls as the coach of USC UPSTATE with a combined average of 128,5 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (USC UPSATE/INDIANA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Cleveland runs at a snails pace ranking 30th in the NBA and rank 1st in ppg allowed in the league and just 25th in ppg offense . CLEVELAND is 13-4 UNDER  in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons like Washington with a combined average of 209.2 ppg going on the board. Im betting Cleveland will control the pace of this game , which will result in a lower scoring affair. 

Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

CLEVELAND is 12-3 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.

Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play UNDER

Orlando took out the Suns by a 114-97 count the last time they played this season back on Nov 11. Because of the style of hoops both sides play against comparative sides,  a under wager makes sense  , based on my own projections which estimate a total closer to 225. 

PHOENIX is 14-3 UNDER  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. 

ORLANDO is 11-3 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored..ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER   after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. The Magic played little or no D, in a ugly loss to San Antonio last time out, and the coaching staff was not impressed. Im expecting a more concerted and attentive effort in transition here tonight by the Magic.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 34-13 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ORAL ROBERTS) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Clippers are deliberate side, that ranks 24th in pace, and Im betting they will be even more conservative here in transition tonight against an explosive offensive opponent which will result in a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers estimate. 

Kerr is 21-8 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored.( Golden State took a 123-112 event vs the Suns last time out). 

LA CLIPPERS are 25-8 UNDER  in home games this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.

LA CLIPPERS are 21-6 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 50-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78
% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER

After playing a physical wide open game vs the Bucks last time out Im betting on an emotional letdown situation to rare its ugly head here tonight in Chicago for Sacramento. I also expect a more concerted defensive effort from the Kings after imploding defensively in the 2nd half of the above mentioned game vs the Bucks . Meanwhile the Bulls who rank 20th in offense and 10th and defense behind the 17th ranked pace will be especially careful in transition tonight vs an explosive side which will help us keep the combined score on the low side of the total. 

CHICAGO is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 210.5 ppg scored. 

CHICAGO is 11-2 UNDER when playing 3 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.4 going on the board.

Brown is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game as the coach of SACRAMENTO with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored. Donovan is 33-11 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with acombined average of 213.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 50-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

My projections estimate a combined score of 232, giving us tremendous value on this public totals offering. 

 MILWAUKEE is 26-11 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. 

SACRAMENTO is 15-7 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Pelicans have averaged just 107 ppg on offense in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and depend on being conservative on transition which results in slow placed games. The current 5 game run has see a combined average of just 218.8 ppg scored.  The Pelicans currently rank 8th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland has also had problems being consistent on offense of late , and despite of a big output last time out in a 120-119 loss to the 76ers  have seen 5 of their L/7 overall remain on the low side of the offered total. Im expecting offensive regression here especially with this being the Blazers 6th straight rad game. Im betting  their tired legs will have them not willing to take part in a run and gun affair, which the Pelicans dont want any part of anyway.  

Under is 6-0 in Pelicans last 6 overall.Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.NEW ORLEANS is 23-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 UNDER \ when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 31-17 UNDER  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 18-9 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 12-5 in Trail Blazers last 17 road games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 70-30 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored.

Play under

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Purdue has defeated the Nittany Lions twice this year (76-63 at The Palestra on Jan. 8; 80-60 in Mackey Arena on Feb. 1). Im betting on a output somewhere in the same range which gives us an edge with a over bet.Painter is 15-3 OVER  in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 as the coach of PURDUE.Shrewsberry in his L/23 games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better  with a defense of 42% or better as the coach of PENN ST has seen a combined average score of 139.7 ppg scored. 

Play on the over 

My projections make this total closer to 231 which gives us at least a two full possession value to the under.  Bostons well rested and with the play offs approaching  quickly will continue to hone their key defensive skills . Boston operates at the 20th ranked pace in the NBA and owns the 4th best defensive rating on the league. Note: Boston has gone under in 8 of their L/9 with 2 days rest and have gone under in 14 of their L/16 as 8 point or less road chalk. 

Atlanta has gone under in 8 of their L/9 as conference home dogs and are 0-5 under L/5 in this series vs Boston with the average combined score clicking in at 208.2 ppg. 

Snyder is 44-22 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 204.4 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored.BOSTON is 20-5 UNDER  when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 13-3 UNDER  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 15-7 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 52-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a win against a division rival are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Philly has really been ratcheting up their offense of late scoring an average of 124.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the court, and Im betting their aggressive offensive posture will continue here tonight against the Wolves who have allowed +115 ppg at home this season. Note: The 76ers have allowed more than 113 ppg on the road this season and my projections estimate a number closer to 114 for the Wolves offensive output. PHILADELPHIA is 16-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with the combined average of 254.6 ppg scored. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 250.8 ppg scored. (Philly took a 147-143 win vs Pacers last time out)

MINNESOTA is 25-7 OVER after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored.( Minnesota took out Sacramento last time out by a 138-134 count)

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5  ( MINNESOTA/ PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/27 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over 

West Coast Tournament - Semifinals - Orleans Arena - Paradise, NV

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 UNDER   in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

GONZAGA is 12-4 UNDER after 7 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 160 points (GONZAGA /SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Sacramento is off a exhausting back and forth game vs Minnesota last time out losing  a 138-134 dog fight  and will be in a natural letdown state here and  an obvious regressionary offensive output result could easily be the result . That Im betting directly effects this combined score to the under. Note: The Pelicans are banged up and their offensive flow is off, as is evident by averaging 105.4 ppg in their L/5 overall and have failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in 2 of thier L/3. The Pelicans have also gone under the total in 6 of their L/7 and  20-5 UNDER  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg. I know the Kings have revenge on board for a DD loss to the Pelicans back on Feb 5th but it must also be noted that NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 77-39 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 30-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games are 60-30 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections make this total closer to 131 which gives us a full two plus possession value on this totals offering. 

 NORTHWESTERN in their L/34 games  versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 137.1 ppg scored.

Pikiell L/34 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game as the coach of RUTGERS have seen a combined average of 129.5 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (RUTGERS /NORTHWESTERN) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a favorite are 49-16 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Houstons 10 division games this season have seen a combined average of. 224.2 ppg scored. The Rockets rank 29th in ppg offense and rank 15th in pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio is banged up and has scored an average of just over 108 ppg in their L/5 as they have slowed down their pace perspicaciously and focused alot more on on paying attention defensively in transition. Everything points to this being lower scoring than the lines-makers offered number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG are 70-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Play under 

Memphis ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season, while Denver ranks 12th in ppg allowed along with a pace that ranks 19th in the league. My projections estimate a Total that should be closer to 230 giving us a 2 possession advantage to the under on this offering.

Under is 9-3-1 in Nuggets last 13 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. (Denver poured down 133 points in a win vs Houston last time out and now a regression from a offensive standpoint is expected)

Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 13-3-1 in Grizzlies last 17 overall.

MEMPHIS in 10 games  as a road underdog this season have seen a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 27-14 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 26-8 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 24-10 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 228.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 49-10 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings.

Play on the UNDER

Both the Jazz and Thunder have been short-handed since the All-Star break and its interrupted their offensive flow. Utah has seen all 3 game they have played since the all star game stay under the total, and Im betting this contest will also fall below the lines-makers projections. 

OKLAHOMA CITY  in their L/13  home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season   have seen a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a score closer to  136 which gives us plenty of value to cash an over ticket . 

CAMPBELL is 10-3 OVER   in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 137.3 ppg scored.

Aldrich is 22-12 OVER   when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of LONGWOOD with a combined average of 144.6 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (LONGWOOD) - off a home loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 26-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 150.2 ppg.

Play over 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 UNDER  in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 118.7 ppg scored.GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 114.8 ppg. 

Play UNDER

San Antonio is banged up with a boatload full of injures and that in itself is effecting their offensive flow. as is evident  by averaging just over 107 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood and currently rank 28th in ppg offense in the NBA. The kind of hoops they are playing  because of their short handed status must be framed as "survival mode" .  So their pace has slowed down precipitously, as well as their aggressiveness in transition. Tonight against Indiana side that ranks just  21st in offensive efficiency, Im expecting a much slower and lower scoring  game than the lines-makers expect .

INDIANA is 13-3 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.2 ppg. scored. INDIANA is 19-9 UNDERafter playing a road game this season with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - off a road win, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 80-42 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 68-30 L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play over

These two sides are separated by one loss in the tight Western Conference standings and tonight as both jostle for play off positioning you can bet that a close physical game could easily be on the agenda. I know they played a wide open game last time they met in early Feb, but that was then and this is now and the situation has changed. 

GOLDEN STATE is 17-5 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Under is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-1-2 in Trail Blazers last 11 Tuesday games. Under is 5-1-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Trail Blazers last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 8-3 in Trail Blazers last 11 road games.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND/ GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Tuesday nights are 47-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

Spurs enter on. a-horrendous losing run and are now in full tank mode as they play with little or no ambition or energy , as is evident by only 108.6 ppg on average  in their L/5 most recent games. Im betting they play survival hoops here tonight against a side that outguns them whihc Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. 

SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 UNDER   after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.6 ppg scored. 

UTAH is 24-11 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

UTAH is 32-17 UNDER (+13.3 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.

Under is 17-7-1 in Jazz last 25 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 home game. Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 48-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 66-27 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections make this total closer to 231 which gives us a full three possession edge to the under. 

Dallas is ranked 29th in pace in the league and 12th in ppg allowed and 18th in ppg offense. Meanwhile, Pacers rank 21st in offensive efficiency .  

DALLAS is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. DALLAS is 11-2 UNDER in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average 212.5 ppg scored. Kidd is 32-18 UNDER  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored.

INDIANA is 19-9 UNDER  in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - in non-conference games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 43-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA t where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Knicks offense is hitting on all cylinders of late and their D, is also standing tall. The Celtics who rank 20th in pace and 7th in ppg allowed  are well aware of the Knicks current form, and will be primed to buckle down in transition, which Im betting limits the Knicks offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Knicks who rank 28th in pace in the league and 9th in ppg allowed will also be formidable defenders in a game that Im betting will be physical /grinding and lower scoring.  BOSTON is 11-1 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 11-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 53-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 3 straight games are 81-39 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

NC CENTRAL is 7-1 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season with a combined average of 147.7 ppg scored.

NORFOLK ST is 20-7 OVER  in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 

NORFOLK ST is 6-0 OVER  in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons with a combined 151.5 ppg scored. 

Road teams against the total (NORFOLK ST) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 54-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play over 

Take no prisoners all out one way hoops is what Minnesota has implemented in last season games for a while, now is as is evident by the following trends. MINNESOTA is 10-0 OVER  in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.7 ppg scored. Finch is 13-0 OVER  in road games in February games as the coach of MINNESOTA with a combined average of 249.8 ppg scored. Minnesota is  5-0 OVER L5 conf games  and are 5-0 L/5 OVER  awa .

Golden State is banged up but there is still enough talent to soldier forward and put points on the board, especially against. side that will come out firing bullets and force them into a wide open affair. GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 OVER  after a win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 239.1 ppg scored. (Beat Golden State 116-100 last time out)

 Golden State is  8-0-2 OVER L/10 playing  on Sundays  and  15-1  OVER   after a day off   Series These teams have combined for a  (236.5 ) in their L/9 meetings.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Golden State.

Play on the over 

Philadelphia is 3rd in ppg allowed this season behind a slow pace that ranks them 26th in the NBA. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed and 20th in pace. Today in a elite NBA eastern conference tilt Im expecting a physical battle that helps keep this score on the low side of the Total. 

BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored.  BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.3 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA  in their L/44 games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 212.4 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game are 45-17 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

My projections place this total closer to 231 giving us a full two possession value to the under on this totals offering.  

Memphis owns the No.1 ranked defensive efficiency rating in the league. Denver ranks 19th in pace. 

MEMPHIS is 25-8 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230  MEMPHIS/(DENVER) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on the over

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a combined score of closer to 161 which gives us a two possesion edge on this totals offering. 

GONZAGA is 8-1 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.3 ppg scored.GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER  after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 149 ppg scored.

Lavin is 17-5 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 147.8 ppg scored.

CBB Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (GONZAGA) - explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or more are 30-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Indiana beat the Celtics as road dogs earlier this season, and now the Celtics will have redemption in mind and which usually centers on them playing their best form of defensive basketball. BOSTON in 12 games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 220.1 ppg scored..BOSTON  in  8 games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season have allowed that opponent in the rematch to score an average of 108.3 ppg while themselves have also average roughly 108.1 points for a combined average of 216.4 ppg. 

BOSTON is 15-6 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season.with the average combined score clicking in at 223.4 ppg. BOSTON is 12-4 UNDER  in road games versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season with the combined average score of 226.5 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 7-0 UNDER in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season with a combined average 219.1 ppg. BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 228.8 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 home games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

WEBER ST is 44-14 OVER   at road when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 144.4 ppg scored.

Weber has gone over in 6 straight games.

Sacramento state has gone over in 4 of their L/5 overall.

CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (WEBER ST) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a total in low 130s giving us a substantial edge on this Totals offering. 

AUSTIN PEAY is 33-18 OVER L/51 when the total is 120 to 129.5 with a combined average of 135.8 ppg scored. 

 CBB Road teams where the total is 129.5 or less (JACKSONVILLE) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 48-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (AUSTIN PEAY) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 43-23 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the over

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play under

The Celtics played last night, which sets up a trend that shows them going over the set total in their L/6 home games with no rest and overall they are 6-0 over vs sides with a .300 win percentage or less like visiting Motown. With this.being both sides, last game before the all star game, Im betting this will be a wide open affair as both sides will see no reason to pace themselves. The Pistons have gone over in 4 straight before extended rest. 

BOSTON iin thier L/23 games as a favorite of 10 or more points on the opening line over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 73-36 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Last 5 meetings in Boston have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

My projections make this total closer to 231 thus giving us an almost 2  full possession advantage to the under. The Suns are in a jet lag situation after a 5 game road trip and may take time to acclimated to home cooking . Note: The Suns are ranked 5th in ppg allowed and 22nd ranked pace and will primed to try to slow down their run and gun opponents.

SACRAMENTO is 10-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 7-0 UNDER   in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO  in 27    road games this season have seen a combined average of 231.1 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 14-4 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or better- 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 15-7 UNDER  as a home favorite this season

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Playing on tired legs will have Orlando at a disadvantage from a transitional standpoint and that Im betting will lead to them giving up some extra points beyond what the lines-makers are projecting. Over is 8-3 in Magic last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. Over is 17-8 in Magic last 25 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day

TORONTO is 19-7 OVER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored.

Nurse is 25-12 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of TORONTO with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in February games are 43-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 49-24 L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto

Play on the over 

Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 overall

The Magic and Bulls are both off losses, in what were low scoring affairs. Both are playing solid d, and with the Bulls looking especially tired Im betting on a slower grinding type game here as well. The Bulls rank 9th in defensive efficiency on the league, behind a 14th ranked pace, and have gone under in 10 of their L/12 overall while, the Magic rank 19th in pace and own the 27th ranked offensive output and have gone under in 4 straight and 6 of their L/7 overall. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER  in road games off a home loss this season.with a combined average of 216 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 13-5 UNDER  off a road loss this season with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. 

CHICAGO is 34-19 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons are 219.7 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 35-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 115-66 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago

Play on the UNDER

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Rockets' defense was in good form last time out against the  Heat in a 97-95 loss. However, that  has not been the case in four previous losses -- 117-111 to the Toronto Raptors, 153-121 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 140-120 to the Sacramento Kings and 130-128 to the Kings. Im betting they regress here into their former state and also progress offensively after that last outing, which will produce a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. These teams took part in a 132-123 Houston win back on dec 5th of the season. Im sure the Sixers will ramp up their energy here in revenge mode and will be prepared to bring down the hammer and merciless fashion which will also aid our quest for cashing an over ticket. 

Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Over is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Over is 8-1 in 76ers last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 9-2 in 76ers last 11 home games.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-3 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 20-7 OVER (after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, off a win against a division rival are 26-4 OVER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Two quality teams who can light up the board, but also play a top tier brand of D, go head to head in NBA afternoon tilt. The combination of this tilt having expectations of being a grinding style post season type affair, and  the early start time which  play havoc with both sides energy levels making this an outlook that leans on this tilt staying on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 Sunday games.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games.Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.

MEMPHIS is 13-5 UNDER ) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 19-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Two quality teams who can light up the board, but also play a top tier brand of D, go head to head in NBA afternoon tilt. The combination of this tilt having expectations of being a grinding style post season type affair, and  the early start time which  play havoc with both sides energy levels making this an outlook that leans on this tilt staying on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 Sunday games.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games.Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.

MEMPHIS is 13-5 UNDER ) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 19-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 OVER   in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.1 ppg scored. 

OHIO ST is 12-4 OVER versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 142.6 ppg scored.

CBB Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games  are 54-18 OVER l/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 149.3 ppg. 

Play on the OVER

The Heat recorded 110-105 decision against the Magic on Jan. 27 and the offered total is now mimicking that score. However, tonight Im betting on that number being eclipsed as the Heat play on tired legs after being in action last night. Note: Miami is 14-2 OVER away when playing with no rest. Last night the Heat also played a grinding affair that was low scoring squeaking out a 97-95 victory and now will be ready to get their offense rolling against instate rivals Orlando, a side that is on one days rest and 8-1 OVER facing unrested opposition.Over is 16-7-1 in the last 24 meetings in Orlando.Over is 7-0 in Magic last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points which was the case last time out. 

Play over

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

UConn defeated Creighton, 69-60, at Gampel Pavilion on Jan. 7 and Im betting on another grinding affair here this Saturday. 

CREIGHTON is 8-0 UNDER in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. 

CREIGHTON is 10-3 UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.

Play UNDER 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

CLEVELAND ST is 24-12 OVER  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 147 ppg scored.CLEVELAND ST is 6-0 OVER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 152.5 ppg scored. CLEVELAND ST is 12-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 149.5 ppg scored.

Toole is 8-1 OVER  off a home loss by 10 points or more as the coach of ROBERT MORRIS with a combined average of 138,8 ppg scored.

CBB Home teams against the total (CLEVELAND ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 90 points or more are 87-40 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections make this total closer to 231 giving us a two possession edge on this current offering. 

Denver runs at a slow 20th ranked pace while Minnesota ranks 20th in ppg offense and have gone under in 8 of the L/9 .

MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

DENVER is 44-20 UNDER L/64 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average 200 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-14 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - vs. division opponents, off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 91-57 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a total closer to 148 giving us a full two possession plus advantage to the under on this offering. 

TULANE is 36-20 UNDER  in home games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game with a combined average of 133.5 ppg in that 56 game sampling size. 

TULANE is 10-1 UNDER l/11 in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games with a combined average of 132.5 ppg scored. 

CINCINNATI  in their L/149 road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 133.2 ppg scored. 

CINCINNATI is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 129.1 ppg scored.

CBB  teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TULANE) - after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season are 45-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (CINCINNATI) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 60-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play  under

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

WEBER ST is 23-7 OVER  L/30 versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48%  or worse after 15+ games with a combined average of 152.9 ppg scored.

N COLORADO is 8-1 OVER   in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157.8 ppg scored.   N COLORADO is 21-8 OVER l/29 as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick with a combined average of 150.8 ppg scored.

Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (WEBER ST) - off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 74-25 OVER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 152.9 ppg. 

Play over

Without the injured Curry in the lineup Im betting the Warriors offensively flow will be negatively effected which will also effect this totals offering to the low side . The Thunder have seen 6 of their L/9 games stay on the low side of the Total. 

Under is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 road games.Under is 7-2 in Thunder last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

GOLDEN STATE is 17-4 UNDER (  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 62-23 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings.

Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Golden State.

Play UNDER

Nine of the L/10 meetings in this series have not seen todays offered number eclipsed and Im betting nothing changes today. The L/4 most recent matchups have seen a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. Note: Dallas ranks 29th in pace in the NBA and 8th in ppg allowed, and will look to slow down a Jazz side that ranks 14th in pace, and that has gone over the offered total only twice in their L/7 games overall. Im betting on the Mavs putting us to sleep here and for this to be a slow grinding affair. 

Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 home games.

Play UNDER

Over is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day which was the case in the OT loss to the Clippers last night. Over is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Philly is 6-0 over a division road fav last two seasons. 

Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points which was the case last time out in a 137-125 win vs the Spurs. Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record like the Knicks. . Knicks have gone over in 7 straight division tilts. 

PHILADELPHIA is 29-11 OVER  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW YORK) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 32-9 OVER  L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBAl teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game.   are 40-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

After losing two straight games Im betting Utah will out of frustration play a start to finish game here today and really bring the heat in a more wide open tilt that the pundits might expect. 

These teams played a very low scoring sleeper the last time they met earlier this season with Utah winning by a 58-43 count. Note: CALIFORNIA is 9-1 OVER   in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 138.8 ppg scored. 

CALIFORNIA is 9-2 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 133.3 ppg going on the scoreboard.CALIFORNIA is 7-0 OVER after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average off 144.2 ppg scored. 

UTAH is 25-12 OVER L/37 in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72%  or better of their attempts after 15+ games with a combined average of 140.4 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Dallas behind the 29th ranked  pace in the league  and 7th best ppg D, will be primed to slow down the run and gun Golden State Warriors tonight as road underdogs. This results in a lower scoring game than many of the pundits might expect. On the flipside the Warriors viable 3 point D, will also highlight this lower than expected combined score. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Miami has defeated the Bucks twice already this season in physical lower scoring  altercations, and Im betting nothing changes today. Miami won 108-102 and 111- 95 and a rinse and repeat type of score is being projected by me for this spot play. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-3 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.MILWAUKEE is 8-1 UNDER   after 4 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER after playing 3 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a combined score of 155 points giving us a almost full 2 possession edge on this number.

MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored.

OHIO U is 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 160.6 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MIAMI OHIO) - after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 30-4 OVER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The Spurs offense is struggling mightily of late averaging just 107 .4 ppg in their L/5 trips to the court. This team as a whole looks winded and Im betting things wont get much better tonight vs a 76ers side that ranks 4th in ppg allowed in the league behind a deliberate 23red ranked pace. 

Note: The Spurs upset the 76ers way back in Oct of this season, but now with redemption at hand Im betting Philly will be wide awake here and ready to play a top tier brand of hoops tonight. 

Rivers is 35-19 UNDER (  in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 201.8 ppg scored.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 UNDER in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 UNDER   after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg going on the board. 

NBA  team (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 10 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 62-27 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNDER 

These two struggling teams see this as an opportunity for a rare win, so Im betting on this being a very physical hard fought affair that stays on the low side of the number.

Under is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 home games.

DETROIT is 28-14 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or more - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 56-31 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two struggling  defensive teams ( 118 or more PPG) are 50-18 UNDER L/26 seasons for a  75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

New Orleans has lost 9 straight behind a struggling offense that has averaged just 105 ppg in their L/5 overall trips to the court.On the flipside the Mavs have picked up their defensive game of late and allowed just 102.7 ppg in their L/3 tilts overall. today Im betting the Pelicans offensive struggles to persist and for the Mavs to continue to ramp up defensively. 

Kidd is 10-1 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 206 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or less of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. 

DALLAS is 10-1 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 season with a combined average of 198.5 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 23-8 UNDER in home games off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.3 ppg. 

 ORLEANS is 25-13 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER