976 Cleveland at Chicago WS

Listed Bieber & Giolito

This one should be a tremendous game as we have two elite pitchers dealing. While Bieber is the reigning Cy Young Winner, he hasn’t exactly dominated the White Sox over the years. In his last five against Chicago his average game score is 55. League average is 50, so he is doing well, but not nearly as dominant as he has been against most teams. 

Giolito on the other hand has a 70 average game score against the Tribe his last five starts in this series. In 33.2 innings his ERA is 1.07. 

The Indians are hitting above their heads right now, ranking 2nd in baseball with a 38.8% hard hit rate. Yet they have scored just 37 runs in eight games 4.63 runs per game. In 5 of 8 games Cleveland has scored four or less runs. If that’s all Cleveland can score when hitting the ball on the button, that tells you all you need to know about this limited offense. 

Rarely will be get the chance to play Giolito at home in this price range.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

912 Cincinnati at San Francisco

Listed Miley & Sanchez

In 2020 the Reds had a wRC+ of 83 on the road vs righties, the Giants had a wRC+of 125 hosting lefties. 

The Reds currently lead all of baseball with a 153 wRC+. But keep in mind they are hitting lights out with runners in scoring position, and rank only 14th in hard hit rate. They scored a combined eight runs in three regulation games at Arizona, and the D’Backs aren’t exactly a strong pitching staff. 

Wade Miley is a crafty lefty but the Giants are already 4-1 when facing a southpaw starter. He is coming off a 73 game score in his season opener hosting Pittsburgh. Wiley has battled inconsistency throughout his entire career. Give us the host who rakes against lefties.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

924 LA Angels at Kansas City

Listed Cobb & Singer

Last year the Angels had a wRC+ of 97 on the road vs righties. The Royals had a wRC+ of 104 hosting righties. 

The Angels travel to KC after spending the weekend in Dunedin Florida, in the launching pad of the Jays Spring Training site. While yesterdays game was rained out, the team combined for 36 runs in the first three games of the series. The LA bullpen threw 314 pitches in that series. 

Alex Cobb has looked good in his last three starts dating back to last year. But he has never fared well against the Royals with his last five starts averaging a 44 game score.

Brady Singer is a young pitcher we really like. And he did not fare well in the opener with a 30 game score vs Texas. In his final four starts of 2020 he produced game scores of 86, 75, 40 and 72. Three excellent and one below average start. Considering the Angels have never faced him as a starter, we give the advantage to the pitcher.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

972 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

Listed Pitchers Montgomery & Honeywell Jr

In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ on the road vs righties of 87, the Rays had a wRC+ of 134 hosting lefties. 

Jordan Montgomery looked really good in his first start of the year, producing a 71 game score. But when looking at his last seven starts he is only slightly better than average at 51. He has struggled against the Rays with a 46 average game score in his previous five starts against the Bay. 

Brent Honeywell Jr is being called up to make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen game for the Rays. This is a pitcher that has been highly coveted throughout his career, but injuries have slowed down his development. We are excited for him to get the chance to make his debut today. With a loaded Rays minor league system, it’s telling why they brought him up for this start. Can’t forget that the Rays are 10-2 vs the Yankees the past two seasons. Getting them as a home underdog in this price range is a gift.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

922 LA Angels at Toronto

Quintana & Matz

Last year the Angels had a 72 wRC+ on the road vs lefties. Toronto had a  117 wRC+ hosting lefties. 

Steven Matz had great success in his first start on the season. Although is was at Texas against a lesser hitting team. Jose Quintana hasn’t faced Toronto since 2017. His last seven starts overall have resulted in a 33 Game Score. His best start was a 49 which was still less than the league average of 50. 

We like this Jays lineup against southpaws and believe this line is simply too cheap not to back them.

PLAY TORONTO

958 Cincinnati at Arizona

Mahle & Widener

In 2020 the Reds had a wRC+ of 83 on the road vs righties, the Diamondbacks had a 109 wRC+ hosting righties. 

Well aware of how well this Reds offense has been producing. But keep in mind this team is overly due to regress. They are far and away the MLB leader in hitting with runners in scoring position, that has major regression written all over it. Batted ball data also has the Reds ranking 18th in hard hit percentage. Arizona is 15th by comparison. So we have one offense that has been very fortunate, and another that is doing better than the actual results. Plenty of value of the home underdog here.

PLAY ARIZONA

960 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

Kluber & Hill

In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ of 85 on the road vs lefties, the Rays had a wRC+ of 107 hosting righties. 

Here we have two pitchers with terrific careers in the downside of their playing days. Kluber hasn’t faced the Rays since 2018, and Hill hasn’t taken on the Bronx Bombers since 2016. So we can throw away any past pitcher records. What we can look at is if the advanced stats can lead us to victory. 

We already know the Yankees worst subset last year was facing lefties on the road. Because of the short right field porch in Yankees Stadium the team stacks its lineup with pull happy lefties. Looking at Hard Hit % on the season NY ranks 21st and Tampa 23rd. As good as the Yankees have been with the high payroll the last few years, Tampa Bay has matched up well against them. Last year the Rays took 8 of 10, and over two years Tampa Bay leads 15 to 14. Give us the Rays here is a nice home underdog role.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

915 LA Angels at Toronto

Canning & Stripling

In 2020 the Angels had a wRC+ of 97 on the road vs righties, Toronto had a wRC+ of 110 hosting righties. This game is being played in Dunedin Florida. 

Griffin Canning is a talented youngster who has had major injuries in his young career. When he is healthy he is someone under the radar we want to back. 

We never understood the Ross Stripling signing in Toronto. His deficiencies were being masked by pitching in the NL West. Just look at his stats last year when not pitching in Dodger Stadium. In 22.2 innings on the road he permitted 16 earned runs and had a WHIP of 1.558. Against the American League he permitted 17 earned runs in only 19.1 innings of work. In his only start this year he had a game score of 37. Allowing three earned runs in 3.1 innings. Simply put he is a gas can when facing quality offenses, and the Angels can get to him very early.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

967 Tampa Bay at Boston

Yarbrough & Eovaldi

In 2020 Tampa had a wRC+ of 104 on the road vs righties, Boston had an 86 wRC+ hosting lefties. 

The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series, but its clear Tampa has the better team. Over the past 2+ seasons the Rays have won 19 of the 31 meetings in this series. 

We also prefer the lefty starter in this contest, along with the better bullpen. Nathan Eovaldi finished last year with five straight better than average performances, and he looked good in his first outing. But we remain sceptic of his progress. Give us the better team off back to back losses.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

925 Chicago White Sox at Seattle

Giolito & Paxton

In 2020 Chicago had a 129 wRC+ on the road vs lefties, Seattle 85 hosing righties. 

If you remember back to last season the White Sox feasted on lefties, with the best won/loss record in the league. They are already 1-0 in that regard this year, and will be facing a Seattle lefty for the second straight game on Tuesday. 

Giolito is expected to have success against this weaker Seattle lineup, and we simply love this Chicago bullpen. The Mariners have a good young corps of players in the upper minors, who will help the team later on this season. But they likely have no answers for the dominant Chicago offense.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

966 Toronto at Texas

Matz & Foltynewicz

Last year the Jays had a 101 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Texas an 89 wRC+ hosting lefties.

Tough spot for Toronto after really getting up to play the Yankees in New York. After winning two of three there has to be some type of letdown here against one of the weaker teams in baseball. Both pitchers have struggled with injuries. Just can’t turn down the host in this price range.

PLAY TEXAS

922 Houston at Oakland

Urquidy & Manaea

Houston had a 72 wRC+ last year on the road vs lefties. Oakland a 108 wRC+ hosting righties. 

The past three seasons Houston has won 16 of 31 meetings, including all three games of this series. But Brantley was hit by a pitch on his wrist yesterday and will likely sit this one out. 

Manaea is often overlooked in this rotation but he is a solid MLB starter. We lost on the A’s yesterday, our only defeat on a five game multi-sport card. We give Oakland another chance here as we like this pitching matchup.

PLAY OAKLAND

916 Cleveland at Detroit

Civiale & Skubal

Last year Cleveland on the road vs lefties had an 87 wRC+, and already have been shut down by Matthew Boyd on opening day. Detroit had an 82 wRC+ hosting righties.

Many people we trust are enamored by Aaron Civale, but while he is a solid number three starter, we lack that same judgement. We just haven’t been enamored by what he has accomplished. The future may be bright, but until we see it on a regular basis we can only judge him on what he has done. 

Skubal blew people away in record numbers in the minors, and simply put this Indians lineup is very weak. Money has come in on the host, but there is still plenty of value on the young lefty. Look for the Tigers to continue the Cleveland offensive downfall.

PLAY DETROIT

917 Baltimore at Boston

Zimmerman & Richards

In 2020 Baltimore had a 111 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Boston an 86 wRC+ hosting lefties.

As bad as the Orioles have been the past few years they have won 14 of 31 games against the Sox, including the first two this season. This line is simply too high and has slowly been bet down overnight. Can’t trust the often injured Richards to go more than four innings here.

PLAY BALTIMORE

903 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Anderson & Eflin

In 2020 the Braves had a road wRC+ of 114 vs righties, the Phillies 114 at home vs righties.

This game opened up with the Braves being a sizable favorite, but has now been bet down too much in our opinion. Anderson could end up being the ace of this team by the end of the year. That’s really saying something as the front of this rotation is loaded. Eflin is nothing but a mid-rotation starter in our opinion. Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but the Braves are clearly the better team. With both teams playing the vast majority of starters today, the Braves get into the win column.

PLAY ATLANTA

958 St Louis at Cincinnati

In 2020 St Louis on the road vs righties had an 87 xRC+, Cincy at home vs righties a 109 wRC+. We have these two rated very close with the Cardinals having a slight edge. But in addition to the home field advantage, we much prefer Taylor Mahle over Adam Wainwright. Mahle is one of the pitchers we are expecting to break out this season. Hats off to Wainwright for an outstanding career, but at this time his best days are far in the distance. 

PLAY CINCINNATI

972 Houston at Oakland

The Astros had a 72 wRC+ on the road vs lefties last year, the A’s a 108 wRC+ home vs righties.

Houston has won 16 of the last 31 games played in this series, so just about as even as you can get. The Astros have outscored the Athletics 17 to 6 in the opening two games. 

McCullers in his last four starts against Oakland had game scores of 60, 26, 61 and 48, an average of 49. League average is 50, so he has been basically an average pitcher in those contests. 

Cole Irvin has a 47 average game score in his three career starts vs the Astros. Once again, very similar to McCullers. So based on head to head history, and preseason projections these teams are very similar. Yet based on the line we find nice home underdog value on the Athletics.

PLAY OAKLAND

927 San Francisco at Seattle

Cueto & Kikuchi

In 2020 the Giants had a wRC+ of 113 on the road vs lefties, the Mariners home vs righties an 85 xRC+.

Kikuchi has been highly publicized for improving his velocity in the offseason, but even the most confident observers would have to admit he was terrible last year. While we do think he is due for some positive regression, this price is simply too high. We like the young talent on its way for the Mariners, but this is still going to be a team fighting to stay out of the divisional cellar with the Rangers. 

After blowing a late lead last night we look for the Giants to be on the right side of this one. San Francisco has won 4 of the 5 meetings the last two seasons. And Johnny Cueto has a strange delivery for those who haven’t faced him. The Giants are the better team at a plus price. Can’t argue with that.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

983 Houston at Oakland

Greinke & Bassitt

The Astros had a 102 wRC+ vs righties, Oakland 105 vs righties last year. Zack Greinke has had a long career of success, he won’t be intimidated by being the number one starter. Chris Bassit we can’t be certain about. He basically came out of nowhere last year and was a solid contributor to this staff. That said, he’s certainly not a number one on this team in talent. He would be hard pressed to be a true number three in this rotation. 

Big fan of this Oakland offense, when it comes to depth this could be one of the deepest teams in the league. The Houston lineup enters the season fully healthy, something we didn’t see a lot of last year. And keep in mind even with those injuries and the backlash of the cheating scandal, the Astros made the playoffs. George Springer will be a sizable loss for many teams, but these Astros can beat you in many ways. How many other squads can match the speed of this team, and that’s with an aging Jose Altuve. We like the price here on the veteran Greinke.

PLAY HOUSTON

981 Chicago WS at LA Angels

Giolitto & Bundy

The White Sox had a 98 wRC+ vs righties, the Angels 112 vs righties in 2020. When looking at hard hit percentage from last year the top seven teams all made the playoffs. Chicago came in at number six, the Angels? 20th. 

Yes, Eloy Jimenez is out of the lineup for the majority of the season. But the Sox have been dying to get young Andrew Vaughn into the lineup. There was a lot of hype on this team before the injury, it seems to have subsided a bit since. That keeps this line in the playable range. We love the back of this White Sox bullpen, it’s loaded with good hard throwing arms.

The Angels are a team we traditionally look to fade, with great success. It’s a major metro area with the face of baseball Mike Trout. They also have Shohei Ohtani, who always is an interesting story. But the truth of the matter is this team is loaded with question marks. The top four hitters are solid, but there are many concerns about the lower half of the order. The starters after Dylan Bundy need to remain healthy. Something you just can’t expect. We are a big fan of the bullpen changes in the offseason. That’s likely the strength of this team. Other than the Brewers and Rays, how many teams have made the playoffs off the strength of their bullpen? Cheap number here for the clearly more talented squad.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

988 Tampa Bay at Miami

Glasnow & Alcantara

The Rays had a wRC+ of 105 last year against righties, Miami 89 vs right handers. Tampa Bay is still a very good team, but maybe a few spots lower in the power ratings compared to the World Series team of a year ago. 

Miami has one of the best pitching rotations in baseball, especially when looking at the future. This team surprised everyone last year, and have quality young players on the way. 

Tampa Bay has the better team, and the starting pitching also favors the visitor. But this line is much higher than we expected. Baseball betting is all about taking value, and the Rays are simply overrated in the betting markets. 

PLAY MIAMI

985 Minnesota at Milwaukee

Maeda & Woodruff

The Twins had a 108 wRC+ against righties, the Brewers 84 vs righties last season. Be warned the Twins best hitter DH Nelson Cruz will not be in the starting lineup, he’s a true DH that doesn’t play the field. He will likely get a pitch hitting assignment. 

This Minnesota team, just like its division rival Chicago squad, is loaded. The back of the bullpen is elite, and the offense doesn’t have a weakness. Kenta Maeda was up for the Cy Young last year and we could very well see a repeat. This is a legit World Series contender, just hope they don’t catch the Yankees in the early rounds. 

Milwaukee is a good team, but not great. We love Woodruff and Burnes, but the back of the rotation has challenges. The players they signed in the offseason aren’t much better than the ones they let go. There is young talent, but for the most part unproven. In this price range there is only one way to look.

PLAY MINNESOTA

902 Houston and Tampa Bay

Big hitting advantage for the Rays here as we see a battle of lefties taking the mound. Tampa Bay is fourth in baseball with a wRC+ of 121 on the season. Houston on the other hand is 20th with a 94 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is 100. Houston has struggled away from home with a 13-25 record, while Tampa sits at 22-14 away from the Trop. The Rays also have a huge back of the bullpen advantage going 4-3 in extra innings, and 16-7 in one run games. The Astros counter with 2-7 in extras and 12-15 in one run contests. The Rays put this series in the rearview mirror tonight.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

967 Tampa Bay & Houston

The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs righties, while the Astros are 94 wRC+ against southpaws. The major advantage from a pitching standpoint is the Tampa Bay bullpen, as we simply do not trust the pitchers in this Houston pen. Case in point is the records in extra innings and one run games. Tampa is a combined 19-8 while Houston sits at 12-22. The fact is this Tampa team is built to win close games. Throw in the fact that the Rays are 21-12 on the road, and Houston is 13-25 away from home, and we have quite an edge with the Rays.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

909 Miami at Atlanta

The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are 126 vs righties. Both teams hitting much better than league average. Miami has the better road record, 22-14 vs 16-14. Sandy Alcantara has a 59 average game score in three starts against the Braves. Max Fried has a 48 average game score in his last five starts against Miami. Overall the past seven starts have shown both pitchers with a 55 average game score. While we understand that the Braves should be favored, this line is very much inflated in our eyes.

PLAY MIAMI

949 St Louis at San Diego

Nice price on the road underdog Cardinals here. Kwang Hyun Kim has an average game score of 60 in his last seven starts. But a closer look shows just how hard he is to hit the first time you see him. Against Milwaukee the first time he posted a 74 game score, down to 54 in his next start against the Brewers. Facing Pittsburgh for the first time he had a 66 game score, but dropped to 43 the second time the Pirates saw him. Same with Cincinnati, 69 the first time and 63 the second. Obviously this is the first time he will face San Diego.

Chris Paddack regressed as expected this season. He got off to a red hot start last year and faded a bit down the stretch. This year he has a 4.73 ERA and his last seven starts show him as a league average 50 game score. Clear pitching advantage here for the underdog.

PLAY ST LOUIS

937 Chicago White Sox at Oakland

Oakland has a wRC+ of 104 vs righties, but the Sox have a whopping 143 wRC+ vs lefties. In fact, Chicago is 14-0 on the season when facing a lefty starter. Luzardo has a 51 average game score in his last seven starts. Giolito in that same time frame is at 67. Lucas G has faced the A’s twice in his career posting game scores of 53 and 66, league average is 50. 

The Sox enter this series slumping a bit, but that just helps keep this line in control. 

Keep in mind that teams did not face equal schedules this year. The White Sox competed in a division with three playoff teams, the A’s on the other hand had themselves and Houston. Can’t understand why the A’s would throw a lefty against this lineup, but we will take advantage of it.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

934 Houston at Minnesota

Minnesota has a 108 to 102 wRC+ advantage on the season vs righties, compared to Houston. The Astros have been terrible on the road with a 9-23 record. The Twins have been outstanding at home with a 24-7 mark. When playing .500 teams or better the Astros stand at 4-13 on the season, while Minnesota is 18-12. 

In the last seven starts overall Greinke has a 47 average game score, his best start was a 56 against the lowly Texas offense. 

Kenta Maeda has likely been the best free agent signing this season. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 65. His worst start of 56 equalled Greinke’s best start. 

This is the third straight series Houston is playing on the road, while the Twins are playing its third straight series at home. The price is steep but for good reason.

PLAY MINNESOTA

920 Cincinnati at Minnesota

Hitting against righties the Twins have a 110 to 94 wRC+ advantage. Tyler Mahle has fit in well with the Reds, but a closer examination shows he has been much better at home than on the road. On the road he has been a league average starter with a 50 game score, but when at home his game score numbers have been 63, 58, 71, 74 and 45. Jose Berrios has been very consistent with game scores of 78, 45, 68, 53 and 67 his last six outings. With the Twins being 23-5 at home this season, this number looks like a bargain.

PLAY MINNESOTA

905 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Offensively looking at wRC+ the White Sox have a 24% hitting advantage in this contest. Aaron Civale has faced Chicago four times in the last two years with an average game score of 53. His last three overall starts at Progressive Field have shown game scores of 48, 57 and 53. 

Dane Dunning has been very impressive with an average game score of 60 since his promotion. In his first game against an opponent his numbers are 47, 73, 68 and 70. He has been especially good when teams haven’t seen him before, and this will be the first time the Tribe has faced him. 

The White Sox are fighting for the top spot in the playoffs, while Cleveland is basically locked into the Wild Card contest. Look for a big effort out of Dunning and the Sox here.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

967 Kansas City at Milwaukee

Neither team is very good vs right-handers, with Milwaukee at a wRC+ of 85 and the Royals at 89. But we do like the pitching matchup for Kansas City. Brad Keller has a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. He hasn’t given up a home run in 43.2 innings of work. Is it sustainable? Of course not, but in the last three seasons he has only allowed 22 homers in 349.1 total innings. So he has long term homer suppression. He is built up to go a long way today with his last three starts showing total pitches of 111, 106 and 103. 

Josh Lindblom has a 48 average game score this season. His return to the majors hasn’t been as smooth as he would have liked. He hasn’t gotten a victory in his last six starts. We don’t think he and the Brewers deserve to be substantial favorites here.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

920 Atlanta at New York Mets

Two highly touted starters take the hill in the Big Apple tonight. Ian Anderson has been terrific in his first four starts with an average game score of 65. He has been fortunate with the long ball allowing a single home run over 22 innings of work. David Peterson hasn’t been as flashy, but he did put up a 57 game score the first time he faced these Braves. 

The Braves pound vs righties, but only have a 93 wRC+ vs lefties this season. The Mets on the other hand dominate righties with a 128 wRC+ on the season, tied for first in all of baseball. Nice spot to fade the start of Anderson, catching the Mets at home at an inflated price.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

918 Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado

Could very well be a letdown spot here for the Dodgers after taking 2 of 3 against the up and coming Padres. LA is only posting a wRC+ of 101 vs lefties, while the Rockies come is with a wRC+ of 94 vs southpaws. So the LA offensive advantage is minimal. Urias hasn’t been very good against the Rockies with an average game score of 39 in his last five matchups. In Colorado his scores have been 24, 39 and 38. Freeland is having a really strong year despite back to back 27 and 25 games scores 3 and 4 starts ago. He’s bounced back with 69 and 58 game scores his last two outings against the Padres and Angels. 

After facing the Astros and Padres, there is value against the Dodgers tonight.

PLAY COLORADO

976 Cleveland at Chicago Cubs

The Indians have now lost seven straight games. In a season of 60 a streak of this kind can really be a killer. And that’s what has happened as just a week or so ago the Tribe was battling for first place in the division. How it’s hanging on to the last Wild Card spot. 

Aaron Civale has a 55 average game score his last seven starts, but five of those came against the dregs of the league when hitting righties. Detroit has a wRC+ of 84, Kansas City 90, Milwaukee 81, Pittsburgh 62 and St Louis 96. All below the league average of 100. The Cubs sit at 102 wRC+ on the season. 

Jon Lester isn’t nearly the pitcher he used to be, but he has had no problem with the Tribe. In his last five starts against the Indians his average game score was 64, with a 1.73 ERA. He is coming off his best start of the season, and Cleveland’s wRC+ vs lefties is 75. 

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

962 Atlanta at Baltimore

Battle of two lefties tonight in Baltimore. Cole Hamels returns from the DL for his first appearance of the season. His pitch count will likely be low since he has been out so long. While once a legit top of the line starter, he’s now just an average MLB pitcher. Keegan Akin looked great in his first two starts of the year. But as expected the Yankees saw him twice in the same week and the second start resulted in a 30 game score. Now that he’s facing the Braves for the first time we expect a successful outing. We’ve always loved backing unknown left-handed starters the first time through the league. Baltimore should have a solid pitching edge here. 

As good as the Braves have been this season vs righties, their wRC+ vs lefties is only 89, 11% worse than league average. Baltimore comes in at a wRC+ of 102 against southpaws. Nice underdog price here with the O’s.

PLAY BALTIMORE

920 Cincinnati at St Louis

The Cardinals have dominated this series the past three seasons winning 29 of 45 meetings. Adam Wainwright isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in the past but his command and control this season has been excellent. Wainwright has just nine walks in 40.1 innings of work. He’s also been one of the most consistent starters in all of baseball. In six 2020 starts his game scores have been 66, 59, 57, 49, 78 and 58. Keep in mind the MLB average is 50, so you know when you bet on Wainwright in 2020 you are going to get a good effort. 

Luis Castillo has had nice success against the Cards with an average game score of 56 in his last five starts in this series. But in his last seven starts overall he is a league average of 50. Cincinnati is only averaging 3.4 runs per contest offensively its last ten games, with a high of six. This isn’t a team crossing the plate on a regular basis. On the season vs righties the Cards are a league average 100, while the Reds are 89, 11% worse than league average. 

PLAY ST LOUIS

967 San Francisco at San Diego

Two righties go dead to head in this one as Cahill and Paddock do battle. Both teams have hit righties well this year with the Padres coming in at a wRC+ of 125 and the Giants 110. That give the host a 15% offensive edge. But when looking at the starters it’s been Trevor Cahill who has had the more impressive season. His game scores this year have been 50, 50, 68, 53 and 53. All league average or better. Chris Paddack is averaging a 47 game score on the season. In his MLB career he has permitted 33 home runs in just 188 innings. Even in his last two starts in which he didn’t allow a homer, his average game score was just 52. 

Over the last three seasons the Giants have won 22 of the 41 meetings. Over the last ten games overall, the Giants have scored 71 runs while allowing just 36. And you are going to make them an underdog of this magnitude? We don’t think so, give us the Giants at this inflated price.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

903 Kansas City at Cleveland

Danny Duffy has pitched very well on the road this year. His last four road starts graded out with game scores of 46, 64, 64 and 52. Considering that those four games were against the White Sox, Twins, Cubs and Tigers is even more impressive. When grading by wRC+ the Sox are 150 and the Tigers are 132, the top two teams in baseball vs lefties. And we know how good the Cubs and Twins are offensively. 

Carlos Carrasco is often heavily bet because of his name, but his average game score in his last seven starts is 54. Good but not overly impressive. In fact, his last five starts against the Tigers graded out at 48. 

The Indians deserve to be favored today but this line is much too high.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

971 Los Angeles Angels at Texas

Andrew Heaney faced the Rangers a month ago and was hit hard resulting in a 29 game score. But his previous four starts against Texas were game scores of 64, 62, 84 and 69. On the season Texas is 2nd last in baseball vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. The Rangers enter this game dropping 8 of 9 overall. 

Lance Lynn was hoping to be traded at the deadline, but that didn’t happen. His first start after that disappointment was his worst start of the season, a 37 game score against the Astros. With Texas just playing out the string and bringing up your players for an audition for the future, we can’t see Lynn overly excited to bring his “A” game from here on out. The Angels have a 120 wRC+ vs righties, good for fifth best in baseball. This number has been bought up by the wise guys overnight, but still has plenty of value.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

911 Tampa Bay at Washington

The Nationals return home off a long road trip in which it won just 2 of 10 games. Washington is only 6-13 on the season at home. The Nationals wRC+ against righties is 94, 6% below league average.

Tampa Bay has a 110 wRC+ vs righties and are 14-7 on the season on the road. Morton and Scherzer come out virtually equal on the mound, and we prefer the Rays bullpen in this matchup. Better team with a plus price than has proven themselves on the road.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

976 Texas at Seattle

Jordan Lyles has been a train wreck this season. His five starts have resulted in game scores of 10, 23, 39, 47 and 36. Two of those starts came against Seattle. The Mariners have a 102 wRC+ vs righties, and have won 7 of its last 10 games overall. 

Justin Dunn has been a league average pitcher this season, despite allowing five homers in his 27 innings of work. Texas against righties have a wRC+ of 62, 38% worse than league average. The Rangers have lost 8 of 10 games as of late, scoring four runs or less 8 of those 10 games. With a 7-15 record vs right-handed pitchers, and a 4-15 record on the road, we will lay it with the host.

PLAY SEATTLE

957 Washington at Atlanta

The numbers say the Nationals are only 5-21 on the season vs righties. But that’s not the entire picture, as they have a wRC+ of 96, just 4% below the MLB average. Josh Tomlin has done a nice job in the Braves bullpen. But because of injuries and lack of performance he’s now in the starting rotation. In his three starts this season his game scores have been 38, 36 and 43. The past three seasons he has pitched 172.1 innings and has allowed 43 homers! He gave up the long ball on a regular basis when in Cleveland also. 

Patrick Corbin in his last five starts vs Atlanta has an average game score of 56. League average is 50. He allows less than one homer per game the past three seasons. The Braves have a wRC+ of 78 against lefties. Nice price here with the reigning champions.

PLAY WASHINGTON

926 Texas at Seattle

The Rangers are dead last in the league vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. That’s 35% worst than an average team. The Rangers have also dropped 7 of its last 9 games overall, while scoring 4 runs or less in 8 of 10 games. Justus Sheffield has an average game score of 55 in his last four outings. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has put up game scores of 41, 37, 35, 52 and 30 his last five starts. Seattle has a 101 wRC+ on the season vs righties. Money has been flowing towards the Mariners all day, and we agree.

PLAY SEATTLE

980 Arizona at San Francisco

The Diamondbacks are 1-9 on the season vs lefties with a wRC+ of 64, tied for worst in baseball. Tyler Anderson is facing Arizona for the third time in the last two weeks. In his last outing against this squad he struggled badly with an 18 game score. We expect the young southpaw to make the needed adjustments against this Arizona team who has dropped 9 of its last 10 games overall. 

Taylor Clark looked good against the Giants last time out with a 67 game score. But his previous three games against San Francisco resulted in game scores of 29, 22 and 54. With the Giants having a 106 wRC+ vs righties, also with the Diamondbacks being 5-15 away from home. We have plenty of value on the host.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

913 Chicago WS at Kansas City

Looking to jump on this Sox lineup once again when facing a lefty. Now 11-0 on the season with a league leading wRC+ of 157. A full 23% higher than the next best team. Dylan Cease has road game scores of 58, 51 and 57 his last three away starts. This is his third start against the Royals this year with game scores of 57 and 56. Normally you would look for some type of letdown after facing Minnesota, but the Sox dropped those last two meetings. So therefore we can probably ignore the letdown here. 

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

967 Detroit at Milwaukee

We cashed big on the Tigers yesterday, and yet for the second straight game the Brewers are taking money. Spencer Turnbull should be a major money maker this year after 6.06 and 4.61 ERA’s the past two seasons. What we love about the Tigers righty is that he doesn’t give up the long ball. The last three seasons he has permitted just 15 home runs in 195 innings. The Tigers are 12-13 vs righties with a wRC+ of 94, while the Brewers are 10-14 with a wRC+ of 70. Detroit is 8-6 on the road, while Milwaukee is 7-10 at home. Adrian Houser got out of the gate fast this season, but has faltered as of late. Game scores of 42, 47, 45 and 30. Not ideal when the league average is 50. 

PLAY DETROIT

953 St Louis at Cincinnati

Not only did the Cardinals pound the Reds last night 16-2, but they have dominated this series 29-15 the past three years. Tyler Mahle has an average game score of 43 the last five meetings with St Louis. The Cards are 13-11 vs righties with a wRC+ of 109. The Reds are 10-17 vs righties with a wRC+ of 93. Cincinnati is also just 7-11 at home. The Reds bullpen used five pitchers last night, each throwing 19 pitches or more. That included key late inning relievers like Bradley, Thornburg, Jones and Iglesias. 

PLAY ST LOUIS

951 San Francisco at Colorado

Kyle Freeland has a 46 average game score against the Giants the last five meetings. His last three games overall at home produced game scores of 27, 56 and 46. The only quality start was against Arizona who is second worst in baseball vs left-handers. The Giants have a 119 wRC+ against lefties. Colorado is 9-16 vs righties with a wRC+ of 75, fourth worst in the majors. Here are the pitch counts from the Colorado bullpen yesterday, 50, 32, 27 and 23. Want no part of these free falling Rockies who are just 8-12 at home. 

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

915 Detroit at Milwaukee

Both starting pitchers have really struggled to open the season. Fulmer coming off injury, and Lindblom returning from South Korea. Detroit will likely go to the bullpen first as Fulmer’s high pitch count has been 63. But that’s probably a good thing considering the struggles of these starters. Detroit has a better record against righties, 11-13 to 10-13. The wRC+ numbers show Detroit at 89, and Milwaukee at 70. So we get the better hitting team vs righties catching a huge plus payoff. Add in the fact that the Tigers are 7-6 on the road and Brewers 7-9 at home. This line makes no sense whatsoever. It’s all based on name recognition and not 2020 reality. We simply cannot pass up this overlay.

PLAY DETROIT

969 San Diego at Colorado

Neither starter has gotten off to the starts they had planned. Both come in off back to back poor performances. The Padres are 16-9 vs righties on the season with a wRC+ of 125, second best in baseball. Colorado against righties are 9-14 with a 79 wRC+. San Diego is playing the much better ball as of late, and management is doing everything it can to upgrade this roster. Nice price with the better team.

PLAY SAN DIEGO 

953 Seattle at LA Angels

Nice advantages all around for the Mariners here. Seattle comes in with a 100 wRC+ against righties, while the Angels are just an 82 wRC+ against lefties. Marco Gonzales has faced LA twice this year with game scores of 68 and 66. Jaime Barria is making his first start of the season, after posting a 6.42 ERA in 2019. He’s very prone to the long ball, allowing 41 homers in just 221.1 innings of work the past three seasons. Over the last month Seattle is just 12-18, while the Angels are only 10-20. 

PLAY SEATTLE

979 Seattle at LA Angels

Came up a bit short with our big plus money play on the Mariners last night. But we are finding value once against with this Seattle club. Over the past three seasons Seattle has a 23-22 record in this series. Dylan Bundy got off to a great start for the Angels but has faded as of late with 37 and 48 game scores. He is very prone to the long ball allowing 74 homers in just 380.2 innings of work. Hard to lay this number with a guy allowing two home runs per nine innings. Justus Sheffield was highly touted and his last three starts show why. Game scores of 71, 57 and 60 show he is finally living up to expectations. 

On the season the Angels have a 73 wRC+ vs lefties, 27% worse than league average. The Mariners are 102 vs right-handers. Great price with the visitor tonight.

PLAY SEATTLE

969 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Can’t understand why this line is so high. Over the last three years the Brewers have a 25-20 record in this series. On the season Milwaukee is just 5-8 at home. Against right-handed starters Milwaukee is third worst in baseball with a wRC+ of 66, 34% worse than an average MLB squad. Pittsburgh on the other hand has a 108 wRC+ vs lefties. We can see the host being a slight favorite here, but this line is completely overblown. 

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927 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels

While Andrew Heaney has pitched well against the Mariners this year , with game scores of 54 and 58. It will be the third time in a month the Mariners have seen the lefty. Heaney has only allowed two home runs this year and yet his ERA is still 5.52. The last three seasons he has given up 49 long balls in only 304.2 innings. 

Margevicius has been solid since coming over to Seattle with game scores of 56, 59 and 46. The Mariners are playing good ball right now having won 6 of 8 as of late. Looking at wRC+ vs lefties this season Seattle is at 70 and the Angels 71. No way should this line be anywhere near this high.

PLAY SEATTLE

916 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Danny Duffy has been very good this year, and has a nice 54 average game score against the White Sox his last five starts in this series. But the Royals are only 6-12 on the road and 10-16 vs right-handed starters. 

The Sox are a perfect 8-0 on the season vs lefties, with an unheard of wRC+ of 170. That’s 33% higher than the second ranked team in the league vs left-handed starters. The Sox are hot having won 9 of its last 10 games. Cheap number at home vs a lefty pitcher.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

973 Pittsburgh at St Louis

While the Pirates are 0-4 on the season vs lefty starters, they actually have hit southpaws well. With a wRC+ of 125 on the year, ranking eighth in the majors. Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 2.84 ERA despite allowing four home runs in 19 innings of work. His game scores in 2020 are 63, 52 and 57. The two teams Kim has faced struggle vs lefties. Cincinnati has a 93 wRC+ and the Cubs are just an 85 wRC+. This will actually be the best offense he has faced this year believe it or not. Solid value on the dog this afternoon.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

974 LA Angels at Houston

The Astros have dominated this series winning 67% of the last 42 meetings, including 3 of 4 this year. Jose Suarez has an average game score of 34 his last seven starts. Well short of the league average of 50. in 82.1 innings of MLB work he has allowed 24 home runs! Cristian Javier has been impressive in his rookie season, with a 55 average game score. 

The Angels are 4-12 on the road and 5-16 vs right-handed starters. Houston is 7-5 vs lefties with a wRC+ of 131, 31% better than league average. The Astros are 11-4 at home.

PLAY HOUSTON

905 Chicago Cubs at Detroit

In our opinion too much credit is being given to the Tigers starter. Casey Mize has a very bright future, but young hurlers tend to struggle out of the gate. In his debut he only went 4.1 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. The talent is there but it’s very rare for rookie pitchers to enter the league fully formed. 

Alec Mills struggled last time out against the Cardinals. But his game scores before that start were 61, 72 and 52. The Cubs are 12-8 vs righties on the season, while the Tigers are 7-12 in that same category. Chicago is 5-2 on the road while Detroit is 4-9 at home. This Tiger pitching staff has allowed 67 runs its last 10 games. 

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

904 LA Angels at Oakland

Had the A’s last night and they led wire to wire. No reason to switch sides today as the Angels are the most overrated team in the league. This will be the third time each of these starters has faced the opposition this year. Neither pitched extremely well with Bassitt posting game scores of 56 and 47, and Canning 49 and 36. So Bassitt has had the better recent success against this opponent. The Angels are 4-15 vs right-handed starters and 3-10 on the road. Oakland is 12-8 vs righties and 12-3 playing here. The Angels are 8-19 on the season while the A’s are 19-8. This is a very cheap number.

PLAY OAKLAND

976 LA Angels at Oakland

Going against the early line movement in this one as we get the clearly better team in the home dog roll. Sure Andrew Heaney has had very good success against this A’s squad, with an average game score of 62 his last five meetings. He’s fared much better against todays opponent that Mike Tiers who has a 42 average game score against the Angels. That’s a clear starting pitcher edge for Los Angeles. But looking much deeper we see that Heaney has a 4.74 ERA this season despite only allowing a single home run in 24.2 innings. Fiers on the other hand has a 5.96 ERA but has allowed 7 hame runs in just 25.2 innings. The previous two seasons the Angels lefty allowed 47 homers in 275.1 innings of work. These are two pitchers about to hit major regression. 

The road favorite Angels are just 4-14 vs right-handed starters and 3-9 this year on the road. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 vs lefties and 11-3 overall in this ballpark. The last season plus Oakland has a 17-9 record in this series. Too much value in this one to not want a piece of the home dog.

PLAY OAKLAND

924 LA Angels at San Francisco

Kevin Gausman has always had the talent, but he’s had a hard time putting it all together. But this year he has started with game scores of 47, 50, 69 and 55. More impressive is that those games were hosting the Padres, at Colorado, at the LA Dodgers and hosting Oakland. Some pretty good hitting teams in tough parks. The Angels are only 4-13 on the season vs right-handed starters, and 3-8 overall on the road. The Giants are 5-5 vs lefties compared to 5-11 vs righties. The Angels are sending out Jose Suarez who has an average game score his last seven starts of 36. This is his first start of 2020. Nice price to go against an overrated Angels squad.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

912 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

As much as the public seems to like Blake Snell, his last five starts against the Yanks have averaged a 52 game score. Just slightly better than the league average game score which is 50. Tanaka on the other hand has simply owned the Rays with an average game score of 70 his last five starts against them. When looking at current form for the last seven starts overall, Snell is at 54 while Tanaka is at 51. From an offensive standpoint the Rays have a slight edge in wRC+ at 999 to 950. Rare chance to get the Yankees at home at an underdog price.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

956 Washington at Atlanta

Been very impressed with Toussaint thus far with a 23 to 5 SO to BB ratio on only 17.1 innings of work. That includes his worst start last time out at the NY Yankees. He was highly thought of as a prospect, and it’s starting to look like that is translating at the Major League level. 

Anibal Sanchez just hasn’t been the same this year. He had a huge return to form a couple years ago but right now he is struggling mightily. His three starts in 2020 have game scores of 45, 29 and 26. Washington is only 2-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. This is a very fair line on the Braves tonight.

PLAY ATLANTA

964 Washington at Baltimore

Surprisingly the Orioles have won 4 of the 6 meetings the past two seasons. This is what we call a one way rivalry, as the O’s lost part of its fanbase when the Nationals arrived. The Nationals are just 2-8 on the season facing right-handed starters. Baltimore is 2-1 vs lefties and their lineup shows a much better wRC+ vs lefties. The Orioles have six players that have a double digit increase in wRC+ against lefties. Plenty of value on the home dog on Saturday.

PLAY BALTIMORE

927 San Diego at Arizona

The Diamondbacks have won 25 of the last 45 meetings, and they are catching the Padres off a huge four game series with the Dodgers. Kelly has an average game score of 56 his last five starts against the Padres. Lamet on the other hand is at 47 in his four career Arizona starts. When looking at the last seven overall starts by both hurlers, we see both with an average game score of 61. Both teams are 8-7 on the season vs righties. When comparing projected lineups we see San Diego with a 913 wRC+ and the Diamondbacks with a similar 921 wRC+. No way the host should be this size underdog here.

PLAY ARIZONA

911 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Pirates were good to us yesterday, let’s look for a repeat performance. Pittsburgh is now 27-12 in this series. The last five starts between these two shows Kuhl with a 56 average game score, while Gray is at 49. Still don’t trust the Reds in this price range with a 3-10 record against right-handed starters. Similar to yesterday the Reds have a slight offensive edge, but not nearly enough to justify this price.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

959 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Believe it or not but the Pirates have owned Cincinnati the past few years. Now 26-12 vs the Reds. And Trevor Williams has posted an average game score of 63 his last five starts vs Cincinnati. The Reds are also 3-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. We rate the Reds starter one tier better. Offensively these lineups are an 898 wRC+ for the Pirates and 932 for the Reds. Not nearly enough edges to support a line of this size. Plenty of value on the Pirates on Thursday.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

925 Tampa Bay at Boston

The Rays are 15-8 the past two seasons against the Sox. Snell has an average game score of 64 vs Boston. His last seven starts average a 55 game score overall. He’s been on a pitch count to start the season, but we love this Tampa Bay bullpen. The Rays are 8-3 against righty starters while Boston is just 3-5 vs southpaws. Good number to fade an overrated Rex Sox squad.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

971 Arizona at Colorado

Love the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks who we rate two tiers higher than the inconsistent Freeland. Offensively this projected lineup shows a 955 wRC+ for the visitor, with an 836 wRC+ for the host. We don’t want to fade the Rockies on a regular basis vs southpaws, but this is a weak lineup against righties.

PLAY ARIZONA

962 Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Like the two tier starting pitcher edge for the Tigers, as Alexander has been terrific out of the pen this year. Offensively the Tigers come in at a wRC+ of 923, while the Sox are at only 856. Detroit matches up very well vs lefties, while that is a major weakness for Chicago. 

PLAY DETROIT

955 Atlanta at New York Yankees

We are looking at a two tier starting pitching edge for the Yankees, although Toussaint looks to be back where he was as a prized recruit. Offensively the Braves have the slightly stronger lineup, 1081 wRC+ as opposed to 1037 for New York. The Yankees rake against lefties, but are overpriced vs right-handed starters. Nice value here on the road dog.

PLAY ATLANTA

915 Seattle at Texas

Neither of these teams were expected to do much this season. In fact, you could have had either team at 100 to 1 to win it all. The Rangers currently have a 1 1/2 game lead on the Mariners, which tells you neither team is playing much different than expected. Our numbers show Texas with a slight 853 to 836 wRC+ offensively. Although the Texas starter does rate about two tiers higher than the young Mariners starter. That said, no way this line should be this high with a very small if any home field advantage. Worth a shot in a game we have much closer to a tossup.

PLAY SEATTLE

971 Colorado at Seattle

The Rockies have won 7 of the 8 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 5-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-9 vs righties.  Colorado has a projected offensive wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners. Big edge on the mound for the Rockies as well. Worked for us yesterday, no reason to buck the trend. 

PLAY COLORADO

927 Colorado at Seattle

The Rockies have won 6 of the 7 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 4-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-8 vs righties. The Seattle starter has faced the Rockies three times with game scores of 34, 35 and -4. We would rather back the major league debut of the Rockies starter. Colorado has a projected wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners.

PLAY COLORADO

915 Toronto at Atlanta

Showing the Blue Jays to have a tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as a 966 to 920 wRC+ in this contest. Home field advantage has been very low to non-existent so far in this shortened season. Catching plus money with the Jays is a solid bet.

PLAY TORONTO

926 New York Yankees at Philadelphia

Cashed with the Phillies yesterday and see more of an edge today. We rate both starters in the same tier, although the Yankees have a very slight edge. From a hitting standpoint New York shows a powerful 1087 wRC+ but the Phillies are right behind with a 1000. Not a huge fan of this Philadelphia team coming into the season. But we can’t pass up the overlay in this contest.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

903 San Francisco at Colorado

This line is just too high not to get a part of the Giants here. Both starters are graded in the same tier. From an offensive perspective the Giants are about league average with a 899 wRC+. The Rockies lineup is just slightly better at 954 wRC+. Colorado is being rated much too high in this betting marketplace.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

985 Miami at Baltimore

Wrong team favored here even with the slight pitching advantage for the O’s. This Baltimore offensive lineup is horrendous. Only one player in the lineup rates better than league average against righties, and that’s Dwight Smith at 103. As a whole Baltimore posts a 725 wRC+ while Miami comes in at 887 wRC+. Miami now has close to a league average offense after the Covid 19 situation. Look for the Marlins to come away with the road win.

PLAY MIAMI

981 Philadelphia at New York Yankees

Money has poured in on the Phillies for good reason, this Yankees lineup isn’t great. In fact, the Phillies have a 990 wRC+ while the mighty Yankees are at 942 wRC+. We also rate the Phillies starter three tiers higher than the Yankees lefty starter. Not often we fade New York at home in this price range, but they shouldn’t be favored today.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

969 LA Dodgers at San Diego

Terrific pitching duel in the beautiful city on San Diego. We rate the Dodgers having a slight edge on the mound of one tier. From an offensive standpoint it’s all LA as we much prefer the Padres against lefties. Our wRC+ numbers have LA with a 1113 to 902 advantage. This series has been all Dodgers as LA has won 27 of the last 38 games played the past 2+ seasons. Not often that you get the best team in the National League with it’s best starter in this price range.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

965 San Francisco at Colorado

A pair of righties on the mound today and our numbers show the Giants with a two tier advantage in that area. While both lineups are rather weak, the Giants have a 871 to 860 wRC+ advantage. When looking at history between these clubs, San Francisco and Colorado have split the past 38 meetings. This boils down to a slight edge for the visitor catching a plus money price. Sign us up.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

915 Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs

Not impressed with either offense today against lefty starters. The Cubs are at 896 wRC+ while the Pirates come in at 789. Both under league average. Neither starter is impressive either as we rank the Cubs pitcher just one tier higher than the Pirates. So all our stats show the Cubs should be a favorite in the 140-150 range. Yet we are seeing the favorite posted in the 180 range. Plenty of room to sneak in a plus money win on the Pirates.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

972 LA Dodgers at Arizona

The Diamondbacks rake against lefties with a 1034 wRC+. Just slightly less than the Dodgers vs righties at 1081 wRC+. So the hitting is close to equal. We rate both starters in the same tier, so that also rates pretty even. When looking at team history these squads are 20 and 20 the past forty meetings. With Arizona getting last at bats the value is clearly on the host.

PLAY ARIZONA

973 San Diego at Colorado

Projected lineups favor the Padres 1054 wRC+ to 954 wRC+. Both teams hit lefties better than the league average of 900 wRC+. We rate the Padres starter one tier above the Rockies starting pitcher. San Diego should be favored.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

969 Seattle at LA Angeles

Despite the Angels having the better squad the past three seasons, the Mariners lead this series 21 to 19. LA is a really good hitting team vs righties, but that isn’t the case vs southpaws. LA has a 937 wRC+ vs lefties which is just slightly better than league average. Only four Angels players perform better against left-handed pitchers. And Goodwin rarely plays against them and Simmons is injured. This line is simply too high considering the lineups and the starters on the mound. Worth a nice shot here at a big plus price.

PLAY SEATTLE

924 Kansas City at Detroit

Very weak offensive lineup of 787 wRC+ for the Royals vs a lefty. Detroit sits at 899, basically league average vs the southpaw. Major pitching advantage here for the Tigers, who have a much bigger edge than the current line. Won’t back the Tigers many times this year as a favorite, but this game deserves it.

PLAY DETROIT

903 Arizona at Texas

Taking the plus money with the visitor here as this Texas lineup has a combined wRC+ of just 804 vs lefties. The Rangers have really struggled offensively in the early going, and we can’t see them lighting up this Arizona pitching staff. In what very well could be a low scoring game let’s back the NL squad.

PLAY ARIZONA

957 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

Much was expected from the Reds this season, but this club has struggled out of the gate. After Bauer, Castillo and Gray the Reds starting rotation really steps down in class. Cincinnati matches up really well vs lefties but steps down when facing right handed pitching.

The Cubs don’t have a clear number one starter, but this team goes five deep in the rotation. Chicago also has nine players that rate better than league average in wRC+ against righties. Good matchup for the visitor.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

903 Arizona at San Diego

Really like this Diamondbacks team vs lefties. Today’s lineup is showing a 1020 wRC+, as opposed to the 926 wRC+ for the Padres. We also have a two tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as the Padres All-Star closer being unavailable today.

PLAY ARIZONA

901 Los Angeles Angels at Oakland

Prefer the Angels lineup here which posts a 1065 wRC+ as opposed to the A’s 993 wRC+. We also have a three level edge with our starting pitching.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

968 Pittsburgh at St Louis

The Pirate offense has been cold to start the season and grades out as a 859 wRC+ in this contest. After the top four batters not a single Pirate hitter rates league average. St Louis rates 967 wRC+ with this lineup, but the starting pitcher advantage for the Cards is huge. Hudson has been terrific for the host, while Keller has really struggled since his promotion. Instead of betting on his promise we can only go with what we have seen at this level, which is a fade of the Pirates young righty.

PLAY ST LOUIS

951 Miami at Philadelphia

We question the Marlins starting Sierra vs a righty, but other than that we like the Marlins chances once again today. The wRC+ is 853 compared to the Phillies 991. But we actually prefer Urena to Velasquez on the mound. A bit of money has come on the visitor and we agree.

PLAY MIAMI

911 Miami at Philadelphia

This was a good result for us yesterday, and the value is there for a repeat. The Philly offense has the big names against this no name Marlins squad. But when breaking down the wRC+ hitters on the field today the Philadelphia edge is only 45. While Zack Wheeler is a quality starter, we like Chad Smith just as well. Smith started last year on fire before tiring as the season went on. We like him to bounce back strongly this season. Too much value once again on the visitor.

PLAY MIAMI

957 Miami at Philadelphia

These two have been very competitive the past two years with the Phillies owning a 20-18 record in this series. We really like the offensive moves of the Marlins in the offseason. Against righties Miami now has a wRC+ lineup of 930, better than the league average of 900. In fact, despite all the big name talent for the Phillies, this lineup of 994 today isn't nearly as dominant as the past two seasons vs the Marlins. While Nola rates 26% better than Alcantara in ERA+, the line overcompensates. Plenty of value on an improved Marlins team in the season opener.

PLAY MIAMI

954 Detroit at Cincinnati

The Reds have a huge offensive edge in this contest. The league average team will have a wRC+ of 900, as the average player will post a 100 wRC+. The starting lineup for the Tigers here against a righty is 801, while the Reds vs a lefty with this lineup will be 1128. That's a whopping 36% better with every batter in the lineup. Cincinnati putting in Matt Davidson is a huge edge over the overnight lines as he smashes lefties to the tune of a 123 wRC+ the past three seasons. That makes only one Reds batter less than league average against lefties. From a starting pitcher standpoint we also rate the Reds to have a 25% ERA+ advantage. Despite Cincinnati being a sizable favorite, this line is simply too cheap to not back the Reds.

PLAY CINCINNATI

903 Washington at Houston

Strasburg & Verlander

Stephen Strasburg has a 1.88 ERA and 66 average game score in his last seven starts. Justin Verlander has a 3.27 ERA and a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. The last three starts by the Houston righty have resulted in five home runs. That has been the concern all season for Cole and Verlander. The opposition swings for the fences because they have been so dominant. He has allowed 36 dingers in 223 innings this season. We saw the way Washington approached Gerrit Cole yesterday, we expect more of the same today. The starters and the lineups are much closer than this line suggests. It’s inflated based on the Astros need after losing home field edge yesterday. We will take the high plus money price on the Nationals, as this line should be much shorter.

PLAY WASHINGTON

912 Houston at NY Yankees

Cole & Severino

This handicap all comes down to value because you simply cannot make a case against Gerrit Cole. He’s been as dominant as any pitcher we have followed, with his lone weakness being the long ball. He has given up 29 homers in 212.1 innings this season. Players are just coming to bat and swinging from their heels against him. That said, this line from a value standpoint is all Yankees.

The last two seasons New York in 9-7 vs the Astros. Only Tampa Bay has had similar success and they took Houston to the limit in the previous series. Luis Severino has put up game scores of 60, 70, 49 and 56 since coming back from his season long injury. The Yankees are better against right handed starters 74-42 vs 71-47. While Houston is very good on the road at 47-36, New York is 59-24 at home. 

No doubt Cole has a large edge on the mound, but Severino is capable of matching him. The Yankees in this price range at home is a bargain we haven’t seen all year.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

908 NY Yankees at Houston

Paxton & Verlander

Paxton faced the Astros twice this season with game scores of 57 and 28, the latter in this ballpark. Verlander also faced the Yankees twice with game scores of 64 and 50. The key to this handicap is how well the Astros have hit lefties this season. Overall 39-11 vs southpaws and 63-22 overall at home. It’s rare we get Verlander and his 2.34 home ERA in this price range. While James Paxton has an ERA a full run higher on the road.

PLAY HOUSTON

906 Washington at St Louis

Scherzer & Wainwright

The last two seasons St Louis is a combined 10-5 vs the Nats. Mad Max has faced the Cards twice this year with game scores of 51 and 55. Adam Wainwright in his two starts against Washington this season produced game scores of 61 and 56. Over the last seven starts Scherzer has a game score average of 56, while Wainwright’s is 57. 

Both teams are very equal vs righties as the Bats are 72-53 and the Cards are 74-58. Washington is 46-39 on the road, while St Louis is 51-33 at home. 

Adam Wainwright has pitched much better at home than on the road this year. He posts a 2.56 ERA at Busch Stadium and 6.22 ERA away from home. All his advanced numbers also show he favors this mound. Surprised by this very public line as we made this game much shorter. Great value on the home dog.

PLAY ST LOUIS CARDINALS

913 Tampa Bay at Oakland

The Rays sit at 13-8 the past three seasons against the A’s. Charlie Morton faced Oakland twice this year with game scores of 78 and 65. League average once again is 50. What we really like about Morton is his ability to reduce home runs. He permitted just 15 in 194.2 innings this season. Sean Manaea has looked solid since coming back from a long IL stint. 

Tampa has a 32-25 mark against lefties this season, similar percentage to righties. But the A’s rake against lefties with a 35-14 record, but are less successful against right-handed starters at 62-51. While Oakland is a very good 52-29 at home, the Rays are among the league best on the road with a 48-33 mark.

This game looks to be a dead even contest, yet we are getting a plus price on the road underdog. Can’t pass up the veteran Morton in this price range.

PLAY TAMPA BAY