Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-20 | Rays +126 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Rays stole Game Four but gave it back on Sunday as they allowed the Dodgers to jump out to a 3-0 lead after two innings. Tampa Bay actually outhit the Dodgers but could not get the clutch hit, going just 1-7 with runners in scoring position. We are expecting the Rays to extend the series and take it to a decisive Game Seven. This was the Game Two pitching matchup, and we can expect a similar result. The Rays jumped on Tony Gonsolin early and went ahead 5-0 to hold on for a 6-4 win. Gonsolin went just 1.1 innings in that start and the Dodgers will be in trouble with a similar outing. The Dodgers bullpen has not been shutting the Rays down as they have a 5.57 ERA in the World Series. Blake Snell no-hit the Dodgers for 4.2 innings in Game Two before running into trouble and he has the stuff to go much longer and needs to get into the sixth inning. Here, we play against any National League team that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in October games. This situation is 71-40 (64 percent) since 1997. 10* (961) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers threw away Game Four from us, literally, last night and allowed Tampa Bay to even the series at 2-2. This is a pitching rematch from Game One and while the Dodgers easily got that one, it could easily flip here. Tyler Glasnow is coming off his worst start of the postseason as while he allowed just three hits, he gave up six runs in large part because of six walks. He has been inconsistent this postseason, but he can deal and with what happened last night, he does not want to give that game right back. The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound for the second time this series. In Game One, he threw six innings and held the Rays to a run on two hits and a walk. He also struck out eight batters. Now the bad news. He has struggled against teams in the postseason seeing him a second time. In subsequent postseason appearances, Kershaw has tossed 65.1 innings and has allowed 34 earned runs including 11 home runs for a 5.44 ERA. Here, we play on American League teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg going up against a National League starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better, after scoring eight runs or more. This situation is 31-11 (73.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -160 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. This is a tough spot for Tampa Bay based on the starting pitching matchup. The Dodgers took a 2-1 series lead after taking two of three from the Rays top three aces and now they get to face the Rays bullpen game rather than one of those big three. Actually, those three Rays starters put up an 8.78 ERA in their three starts, and none made it out of the fifth inning so essentially, Tampa Bay has already had three bullpen games. Ryan Yarbrough will be asked to pitch the bulk of the early innings and he is in a very tough spot here against potent Dodgers lineup. Julio Urias last started on Oct. 14, nine days ago, where he lasted five innings and 101 pitches, which made him ready to pitch three scoreless innings to close out Game Four. He has given up only one earned run in 16 innings this postseason, he is fully rested, and he is in the perfect position to put the Dodgers a win away from a title. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 while the Dodgers are 45-18 in their last 63 games following a win. 10* (957) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay was able to even up this series with a win in Game Two behind a solid pitching effort from Blake Snell. While the Dodgers seem to have the pitching edge in Game Three, that is not necessarily the case. Walker Buehler had another great season where he posted a 2.91 ERA but has just two wins as he was not able to go deep in games and that could hurt here with the Dodgers going to their bullpen early on Wednesday. While his last start against the Braves was great, his command has been off as he issued 11 walks in his first three postseason outings. Charlie Morton has had a career resurgence as since 2017, he is 47-18 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings. His postseason record since then is 7-1. In this postseason alone Morton has given up one earned run and struck out 17 over 15.2 innings. He limits damage by keeping the ball in the yard as he has allowed only four home runs this season over 53.2 innings including none in the postseason. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in October games. This situation is 70-39 (64.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (956) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-21-20 | Rays +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 124 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We lost with the Rays last night but will back them tonight to get this series evened up. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash was uncharacteristically lenient with the leash for his starter, granting Glasnow a season-high 112 pitches, even as he walked six batters. Tampa Bay turns to Blake Snell who has allowed just three runs over his last two starts. The Dodgers do hit righties better than lefties, which is a modest lift for Snell. The Dodgers are among the worst teams in baseball at making contact against curveballs and sliders from lefties in the strike zone. Tony Gonsolin counters for the Dodgers and he struggled in his lone postseason start as he allowed five runs in 4.1 innings against the Braves. He is pitching on two days rest after going two innings in Game Seven where he allowed two runs while throwing 41 pitches. Here, we play against teams averaging 5.0 rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 72-39 (64.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (953) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-20-20 | Rays +161 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay nearly lost a 3-1 series lead but took Game Seven of the ALCS while the Dodgers came back from a 3-1 series deficit with three straight wins to make their trips to the World Series. Tyler Glasnow went 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in the regular season and is 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four postseason starts. He is coming off his worst outing of the postseason, allowing four runs and striking out just five over six innings against the Astros in Game Four of the ALCS. He struck out 91 batters in 57.1 innings in the regular season, and the Rays were 9-2 in his 11 starts. Clayton Kershaw will be on regular rest for Game One. In his NLCS Game start start, pushed back two days because of back spasms, he allowed one run over the first five innings but was charged with four runs after allowing three runs in the sixth inning. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or more, in October games. This situation is 69-39 (63.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -148 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. It all comes down to Game Seven in the National League Championship Series as the Dodgers have won the last two games to stay alive. After fending off elimination twice already, history is on the Dodgers side to complete the comeback. Of the 17 teams to force a Game Seven after trailing, 3-1, in a best-of-seven series, 13 have gone on to win that last game. Ian Anderson goes for the Braves, making this his second start in the series. The Dodgers did not score off Anderson in four innings in Game Two, but they walked five times and ran his pitch count to 85. Dave Roberts would not commit to a starter after Game Six, but he did say Tony Gonsolin would take down a good bit of the innings. With starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias and Dustin May available, there could be an opener. The Dodgers are 70-36 against the money line in their last 106 games as a favorite of -125 to -175. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Astros came through for us yesterday, but we are going the other way Saturday. After another defeat filled with pitching woes, questionable managerial decisions and defensive mistakes that would have seemed improbable just three days ago for the best record in the American League during the regular season, the Rays are also one loss away from matching the worst playoff collapse in 116 years of postseason baseball. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Tampa Bay and he is the pitcher you want in this spot. He pitched two seasons and won a World Series ring with the Astros before joining Tampa Bay last year. He has allowed just one run over 10 innings in his two postseason starts. Lance McCullers counters for Houston and he is coming off a decent outing, but the long ball has been an issue as he has allowed five home runs in his two postseason starts. The Astros are 2-11 in their last 13 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Rays are 21-5 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (908) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-16-20 | Astros +126 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 126 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After dropping the first three games of this series, Houston has won the last two to get back into it and winning the whole thing is not on its side based on history, momentum has clearly shifted. After a lackluster offensive regular season (.264 average with a 92 OPS+ and five homers), Carlos Correa is now hitting .342/.457/.816 with six homers in the playoffs. The pitching matchup is the same as Game One with Blake Snell going for the Rays and Framber Valdez getting the ball for the Astros. Valdez, who has pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 18 postseason innings this year is on full rest following a great start against Tampa Bay, but his offense could not back him up. Snell was decent as well, but he has allowed four home runs over his last two postseason starts and he has not made it through six innings in all of his 14 starts this season. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season, after scoring and allowing five runs or less last four games. This situation is 31-18 (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) Houston Astros |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +205 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 205 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers came through for us last night in a record setting way with an 11-run first inning, but the Braves are in a good position to bounce back from their first postseason loss. Only 25 percent of teams that fell behind 2-0 in a best-of-seven series and won Game Three have come all the way back to win the series, and none of the last 17 did it. Clayton Kershaw will get the start after being scratched from Game Two because of back spasms. He had a solid season, but the Braves present a problem. He had the highest first-pitch strike percentage (69.7 percent) of any pitcher in baseball in the regular season but the Braves .788 slugging percentage on the first pitch was the best in MLB. Additionally, he thrives with his breaking ball but faces a Braves team whose .429 slugging percentage against breaking balls was the highest in MLB this year. Atlanta pitching has struggled over the last 12 innings, allowing 22 runs but the bullpen is still in decent shape. Starter Bryse Wilson allowed just one run in three starts and if he can get through four innings, that will be a win for the Braves and the bullpen. Here, we play on teams after allowing 12 runs or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more two straight games. This situation is 50-28 (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Atlanta Braves |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -180 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Braves came through for us last night but came close to blowing a 7-0 lead and the Dodgers, despite the loss, carry momentum into Wednesday. Los Angeles needs this game to avoid a 3-0 deficit and it has a significant pitching advantage tonight. The Dodgers have lost back-to-back games only five times all season and are 4-0 following the first four, winning those games by a combined score of 29-12. The Dodgers late offensive awakening after being limited to a single run in the first 15 innings of this series could be a confidence-builder. Julio Urias gets the ball for Los Angeles and he has been solid with a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This is his first postseason start and he has allowed one unearned run with 11 strikeouts in eight innings in the postseason. Kyle Wright threw six scoreless innings against the Marlins in the NLDS but had a 5.21 ERA in eight starts in the regular season. The Dodgers are 48-19 in their last 67 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (973) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-13-20 | Braves +156 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 156 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Braves last night as the problems with Walker Buehler were on full display. He has allowed only four runs in 17 innings since returning from the injured list with a blister that originally began in his right index finger, but he has yet to complete six innings during that stretch. Last night messed up the whole rotation as Dustin May had to come in for two innings so he is out of the equation for at least tonight. Clayton Kershaw has been scratched and Tony Gonsolin will take his spot. He went 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine appearances this season, including eight starts so it is not a huge drop-off. However, this is the postseason and a must win so this is the most pressure he has seen and the Braves come in with a lot of confidence and momentum after the four-run ninth inning on Monday. Ian Anderson is young, but he has already shown why he was a first-round draft pick just three years ago. He has worked 11.2 scoreless innings through his first two career postseason starts and has posted a 0.93 ERA over his last five starts. He has been an underdog just once and that was against the Yankees where he carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg after allowing two runs or less in two straight games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 156-91 (63.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Atlanta Braves |
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10-12-20 | Braves +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 128 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Both Atlanta and Los Angeles cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs with neither losing a game. The Dodgers outscored opponents 30-11 while the Braves outscored opponents 24-5 which included four shutouts and pitching rules this time of year. The Dodgers boast a deep and powerful lineup that led baseball in runs scored, but the Atlanta Braves scored just one fewer time than Los Angeles this season. Max Fried is coming off his worst outing of the season as he allowed four runs in four innings, but the offense bailed him out in a 9-5 victory. The Braves are 12-1 in his 13 starts where he is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Walker Buehler had a solid season as well, but he has struggled with command in his two postseason starts. He has not gone deep in games and the Braves have the offense that can get to him and the bullpen. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in October games. This situation is 62-32 (66 percent) since 1997. 10* (965) Atlanta Braves |
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10-11-20 | Astros +134 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Rays finished the regular season with the best record in the American League, but it took them five games and a late home run to take out the Yankees in the ALDS. Houston finished the 60-game season an underwhelming 14th in runs scored, 16th in OPS, and 19th in home runs. However, the Astros awoke in the ALDS to post 33 runs in a lopsided four-game series with the A's. They are peaking at the right time and they bring in a potent right-handed lineup which is not great news for the Rays and lefty Blake Snell who allowed four runs on six hits in five innings which included three home runs allowed, against the powerful right-handed lineup of the Yankees in his lone ALDS appearance. Framber Valdez gets the Game One start after posting a 1.42 ERA over his past four outings, including a pair of postseason gems. The Houston pitching has been up and down, but the offense has come back to life and it gets a great matchup in this opening game. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70, after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 24-10 (70.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (961) Houston Astros |
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10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +142 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 142 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. It all comes down to Game Five for the team that was expected to win the American League and the team that finished with the best record in the American League. New York began the series with a 9-3 victory but followed it up with an 8-4 loss on Tuesday and a 7-5 defeat Wednesday when its starting pitching plans faltered. They are able to get Gerrit Cole back on the mound tonight but is coming off an average start in Game One where he allowed three runs in six innings. Tyler Glasnow is pitching on two days of rest, but it is not necessarily a bad thing. If Glasnow is used in an opener role, it is possible Blake Snell could follow with the hopes the Rays can get the lead and hand it to high-leverage relievers Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks, who were not used Thursday. The Rays are 11-2 in his 13 starts including 10 straight wins. The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (934) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-08-20 | Dodgers v. Padres +160 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Padres nearly rallied on Wednesday as they scored two runs in the ninth inning and loaded the bases before just falling short. Instead of potentially going for a series lead Thursday, they are now trying to save their season. The Dodgers have won eight straight games going back to the regular season and are a win away from going to their fourth NLCS in the last five years. The Padres will go with a bullpen game Thursday, opening with Adrian Morejon. He did make four starts this season and did not make it past three innings in any of those so it will be up to the bullpen to keep the San Diego season alive. The bullpen has gone 31 innings during the postseason and has posted a 2.90 ERA. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts waited to name a starter until Thursday afternoon, and he has chosen Dustin May. He threw two scoreless innings of relief in Game One on Tuesday, so he probably will not be asked to pitch too deep into this one. He had a solid regular season but his 4.62 FIP and 3.98 xFIP suggest he overachieved by quite a bit. 10* (928) San Diego Padres |
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10-07-20 | Padres +166 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Los Angeles took Game One of this series despite having just four hits as it benefitted from 10 walks in the 5-1 victory. The Dodgers were held hitless through five innings of Game One, though they did score a run in the fifth on two walks and a throwing error. The offense has struggled as Los Angeles has a team batting average of .186 this postseason and the pitching has bailed it out. Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for the Dodgers and while he out up a gem in his first postseason start, he has been known for some playoff disasters. The Brewers were unable to get anything going but that offense was bad all season and the San Diego offense is one of the best in baseball and is by far the strongest lineup in Padres history. Kershaw is all about fastball or slider on the first pitch and the Padres had the fourth-lowest chase rate in baseball, behind three playoff teams in New York, Los Angeles and Oakland. Zach Davies struggled in his first postseason start but he has been solid as he allowed three runs or less in all of hi 12 regular season starts. Here, we play against teams after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs going up against an opponent after a game where the bullpen threw seven or more innings. This situation is 30-12 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (919) San Diego Padres |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -198 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The upstart Marlins will have their work cut out for them in this series and it starts right away in Game One. Miami surprised the Cubs with a two-game sweep led by solid pitching, but Atlanta is a bigger challenge on the offensive end. The second-seeded Braves did not surrender a run in their two-game sweep of Cincinnati, in 22 innings, no less. Max Fried gets the ball for the Braves after he followed up a perfect 7-0 record in the regular season by scattering six hits over seven scoreless innings in a no-decision in Game One of the NL wild-card series on Wednesday. Overall, he posted a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 12 starts, 11 of which Atlanta won. The only loss he allowed just three runs, but the Braves bullpen blew it which was an anomaly. The Braves posted a combined ERA of 3.31, second best in the National League. The Marlins had a bullpen ERA of 5.50, the third worst in the National League. Sandy Alcantara counters for Miami and he is coming off a solid start against the Cubs but he has been inconsistent with his command. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and averaging 4.7 or more rpg going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 56-7 (88.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Atlanta Braves |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +135 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees and Rays both swept their Wild Card Series over the Indians and Blue Jays, respectively. New York comes in as the road favorite behind the arm of Gerrit Cole who was dominant in his first playoff appearance. The Rays finished with the bet record in the American League and Tampa Bay dominated the season series, beating the Yankees in eight out of ten games. While Cole dominated the Rays last season in the ALDS, he struggled against them this season, posting a 4.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in three starts, covering 16.1 innings, two of those resulting in losses. Blake Snell pitched Game One against Toronto when he allowed one hit and struck out nine in 5.2 scoreless innings. He was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in the regular season and allowed three runs on four hits in eight innings during two starts against the Yankees. The Rays are 10-2 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after having won two of their last three games going up against an opponent after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. This situation is 52-34 (60.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -151 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Padres are on the brink of elimination following a 7-4 loss on Wednesday as Chris Paddack got lit up for six runs on eight hits in just 2.1 innings. San Diego got hit with a pair of injuries in their rotation and they are hoping Zach Davies can save their season. He is coming off an excellent season as he went 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA over 12 starts. He allowed three runs or less in all of those starts while allowing two runs or less in seven of those. The Padres were forced to use seven relievers for 6.2 innings Wednesday, so Davies needs to go deep. The ageless Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cardinals and he had a solid season as well, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 10 starts. He is 1-4 when pitching in San Diego in six appearances (five starts) with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and .229 BAA. The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season and are hitting .230 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 39-8 (83 percent) since 1997. 10* (968) San Diego Padres |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Tuesday Afternoon Dominator. Minnesota has lost a Major League record 16 consecutive postseason games but that is pretty meaningless especially since its last playoff game was three years ago. Houston has much more playoff experience but is has been a down year for the Astros as they finished with a losing record after losing their final three games over the weekend. Minnesota won the American League Central despite losing two of its final three games of the regular season. Houston went just 9-21 on the road while Minnesota went 24-7 at home this season. Kenta Maeda gets the ball for the opener and he has been outstanding in his first year with the Twins. He went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 66.2 innings, leading the majors with a 0.75 WHIP while limiting opposing hitters to a .168 batting average. He allowed three runs or less in all 11 of his starts. The Astros hit just .228/.288/.383 as a team in September, averaging 3.8 rpg in the process. Zack Greinke started the season strong with a 1.84 ERA in first five starts before tailing off in the second half as he posted a 5.73 ERA in final seven starts. He made five starts in the postseason last year and went 0-2 with a 4.68 ERA. The Astros are 2-10 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starters while the Twins are 17-5 in their last 22 home games against right-handed starters. 10* (934) Minnesota Twins |
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09-25-20 | Astros -174 v. Rangers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Houston needs one win over the weekend to clinch a playoff spot. The Astros opened tis series with a 12-4 win over the Rangers last night as the offense exploded for the first time in a while. Jose Urquidy has a 2.78 ERA on the season, and he has posted three consecutive quality starts, going 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA during that stretch with 10 strikeouts against five walks and a .490 OPS allowed over 19 innings. The Rangers have been out of it for a while now and they own the worst record in the American League at 19-38. This will mark the fifth start and eighth appearance of the season for Kyle Cody, who limited the Astros to one run on four hits and two walks with one strikeout over three innings on Sept. 15. He has been pretty solid, but he does not go deep in games which is bad with the Rangers bullpen possessing a 4.72 ERA. Here, we play against American League underdogs of +150 or more with a team batting average of .260 or worse after allowing seven runs or more three straight games. This situation is 54-8 (87.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Houston Astros |
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09-23-20 | Cardinals -125 v. Royals | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with St. Louis last night and we will be backing the Cardinals again tonight in what is another big game. They are a game over .500 and are sitting in second place in the National League Central which is an automatic playoff spot this season. St. Louis is a game ahead of Milwaukee and they will play a four-game series which will determine who moves into the postseason and who could likely be left out. Carlos Martinez allowed five runs, though only one was earned, in his last start against Pittsburgh. He will be facing the Royals for the first time this season. For his career, he is 1-0 with a 1.02 ERA against Kansas City, allowing two earned runs on 16 hits in 17.2 innings. Danny Duffy counters for the Royals and he has been hit or miss this season. He has really struggled of late with a 7.04 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over his last three starts, covering just 15.1 innings. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 batting .190 or worse over their last five games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.00 the last five games. This situation is 53-16 (76.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (925) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-22-20 | Cardinals -110 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. St. Louis lost the opener of this series 4-1 on Monday which snapped a four-game winning streak. The Cardinals are a game over .500 and are one of three teams vying for two playoff spots and those teams are separated by just one game so every game is huge in this final week of the regular season. They have been able to adjust as the Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven games during Game Two of a series. The Royals are 10 games under .500 and are just playing out the season meaning a lot of young players are getting looks. The Royals are 2-6 in their last eight Interleague games against teams with a winning record. Austin Gomber gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been solid with a 2.37 ERA over 19 innings which includes two starts. He likely will not go deep but will hand off to a St. Louis bullpen that has been solid of late. Brady Singer is coming off a pair of impressive starts, but he has a 6.75 ERA in three home starts. 10* (969) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-21-20 | Astros -134 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Houston is coming off a 4-2 homestand including wins in two straight games to pretty much lock up a playoff spot. The Mariners are four games behind the Astros for second place in the American League West. Since the Astros already have clinched the season series against Seattle it is actually a five-game deficit as Houston owns the tiebreaker. Houston is 24-2 over the last 26 meetings and it send Lance McCullers to the hill to get a playoff clinching win here. He is coming off a great outing where he allowed no runs on two hits and no walks over seven innings. He is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle. Marco Gonzales counters for the Mariners and he is coming off a rough outing where he allowed five runs in six innings where he allowed two home runs. He has struggled against the Astros, going 0-5 with a 7.22 ERA in eight career appearances, including seven starts. Here, we play against underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. This situation is 63-14 81.8 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (919) Houston Astros |
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09-20-20 | Rangers v. Angels -134 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Angeles are keeping their slim layoff hopes alive after winning their third straight game on Saturday. They are now three and a half games behind Houston and will likely have to win out with seven games left. Los Angeles is 11-5 since September 3rd. The Rangers have the worst record in the American League at 18-34 following their third straight loss. They send Kyle Cody to the hill who has a solid 1.42 ERA through three starts but he is coming off Tommy John surgery and he is not being stretched out for good reason. Julio Teheran counters for the Angels and he has had a tough go at it but that is keeping this number in check. Here, we play against teams averaging 3.6 or fewer rpg going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 to 1.45 on the season. This situation is 39-14 (73.6percent) since 1997. 10* (980) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-19-20 | Twins -123 v. Cubs | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Following a 1-0 win last night in the series opener, Chicago has won five straight games to remain 5.5 games ahead of the Cardinals in the National League Central. The Twins have dropped two in a row but are still within striking distance of the White Sox in the American League Central as they are three games back. Alec Mills gets the ball for Chicago and he is coming off a no-hitter in his last outing which puts him in a tough spot to follow up a performance like that. Minnesota turns to Michael Pineda who has been solid through three starts with a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 17.2 innings. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games going up against an opponent with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 46-13 (78 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (927) Minnesota Twins |
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09-18-20 | White Sox v. Reds -113 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Sweet Spot. Chicago has the best record in the American League and clinched a playoff spot, for the first time since 2008, with Thursday's 4-3 win over Minnesota. While the White Sox are headed to the postseason, the Reds finally are playing like the playoff team they expected to be. They have won five straight games to move into second place in the National League Central which would mean a playoff spot in the extended postseason. Jonathan Stiever is set for his second career start for the White Sox. He allowed a run and two hits while striking out three and walking two in just 3.2 innings in his major-league debut on Sunday. The Reds have still not named a starting pitcher as of late Friday morning as they are debating between Tejay Antone and Tyler Mahle. Here, we play against teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a win against a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (958) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -117 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with the Phillies on Tuesday as they snapped a four-game losing streak, but they gave it back last night in a 5-4 loss. They are now back to .500 on the season and trail the Braves by four games in the National League East. They are still in good shape to clinch a Wild Card berth with 12 games left. The Mets will need a huge push as they are five games under .500 and would have to pass six teams in order to claim a Wild Card spot. Philadelphia will turn to Aaron Nola who is 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts this season. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Mets this season. Seth Lugo counters for the Mets and he has been solid with a 2.63 ERA through four starts, but he has made it past five innings only once. Here, we play on home teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg and batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, going up against a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-16-20 | Blue Jays +226 v. Yankees | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Blue Jays were hammered on Tuesday 20-6 and fell into third place in the American League East but still remain in one of the two Wild Card spots with 13 games remaining. There is little room for breathing however as five teams are right in contention for the two spots. Toronto is coming off the fourth instance of allowing 20 runs in team history and while the Blue Jays are 19-10 in their last 29 games, they have been outscored 45-9 in their last three defeats. The Yankees have won six straight games and are heavily favored with Gerrit Cole taking the hill. He is coming off a seven-inning complete game, but he has been rather inconsistent, and the Yankees are just 6-4 in his 10 starts. Tanner Roark counters for Toronto and while his numbers are everywhere, Toronto is 6-2 in his eight starts. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after a loss against opponent after 6 or more consecutive wins. This situation is 27-19 (58.7 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (963) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies +118 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 118 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Phillies have lost three straight games and now trail the Braves by four games in the National League East. More importantly, they are just a game and a half behind Miami for second place which carries the additional playoff spot in this shortened season. The Mets are favored here for no reason as they are five games under .500 and send Rick Porcello to the hill who has had a horrible season. They are 2-7 in his nine starts and he brings in a 6.07 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. He has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against the Phillies this season. Jake Arrieta has not been much better with his 5.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP but brings value at home where he has pitched well with the exception of one bad outing against the Braves. He allowed two runs in seven innings in his lone start against the Mets this season. 10* (912) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-11-20 | Angels v. Rockies -130 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Rockies have lost three straight games after getting swept by the Padres, but they return home where they look to get back in the postseason race. The Angels are nine games under .500 and are -20 in scoring differential on the season. Colorado hands the ball to German Marquez who has had a solid season despite his 4.58 overall ERA. He has two poor starts this season which has inflated his numbers, but he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his other seven starts. He is coming off a great start against the Dodgers where he allowed just two runs on five hits over seven innings. Griffin Canning, 0-3 with a 4.54 ERA in eight starts, will be on the mound and he has made it out of the fifth inning in only two of those eight outings. The Angels are 5-16 in their last 21 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Rockies are 9-3 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* (922) Colorado Rockies |
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09-09-20 | Reds +142 v. Cubs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 142 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Cubs last night but will be backing the Reds tonight with great value. Cincinnati has dropped two straight games to fall 6.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. Chicago has won two straight games to remain three games in front of the Cardinals in the division. Trevor Bauer has been solid this season as he has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts. Three of his four road starts have been quality outings and for his career, Bauer is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA in five starts against the Cubs. Yu Darvish has become a serious Cy Young contender in the National League as he has yielded five runs and struck out 58 over 46 innings to win seven straight starts for the first time in his career. Here, we play against National League home teams that are hitting .255 or worse on the season and batting .200 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70. this situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-08-20 | Reds v. Cubs -101 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Chicago lost three of five fames against the Cardinals and lost a little space in the division. Chicago enters the game with a 2.5-game lead over the second-place Cardinals, a 4.5-game edge over the third-place Brewers and a 5.5-game advantage over the fourth-place Reds. Cincinnati split its weekend series with the Pirates and has now lost five of its last eight games. Tyler Mahle has had a decent start to the season but has posted a 4.32 ERA over his last three starts. Alec Mills has not looked sharp over his last two starts but he is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in six games against the Reds. Cincinnati is 11-25 in its last 36 games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games while Chicago is 25-6 in its last 31 home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Chicago Cubs |
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09-05-20 | Rockies +175 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 175 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers took the opener of this series with a 10-6 victory on Friday to make it six straight wins and improve to an MLB best 30-10. The Rockies have dropped four of their five to fall two games under .500. The contrarian play is on Colorado as we see a ton of value. German Marquez gets the ball for the Rockies and he has been lit up for a 10.13 ERA over his last three starts after posting a 2.25 ERA over his first five outings. In eight career starts against the Dodgers, he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP so the confidence will be back. Tony Gonsolin counters for Los Angeles and while he has been solid, he has not done far in games and the Dodgers bullpen is coming off a rough night. Here, we play against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen was hit for four or more earned runs. This situation is 52-27 (65.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (927) Colorado Rockies |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -143 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Indians, who have both the White Sox and Twins within a game-and-a-half of their division lead, have won two in a row and 13 of their last 18 games heading into the opener of their seven-game homestand. Milwaukee has won four of its last six games but is still under .500 at 17-19. Carlos Carrasco scattered two hits and struck out six in six scoreless innings of a 2-1 victory at St. Louis on Saturday and now has a 3.75 ERA on the season through seven starts. He has allowed three runs or less in six of those seven starts with four of those being quality outings. Corbin Burnes counters for the Brewers and he has been solid as well, but his last two games came against the Pirates, one of the worst offenses in the league. Here, we play against National League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse going up against teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.30 and 1.35, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Cleveland Indians |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers -160 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Detroit won its sixth straight game on Tuesday with a 12-1 victory over the Brewers. The Tigers did lose JaCoby Jones to a season ending hand injury so the production that has produced at least seven runs in four of those games will come down. Milwaukee has been up and down on offense recently as it has scored one run or less in four of its last seven games. The Brewers can flourish tonight against Spencer Turnbull whose command has been bad as he has a 4.38 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last three starts. Adrian Houser is coming off a pair of poor outings where he allowed four runs in each game, but we can expect a bounce back tonight. Here, we play against underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 batting .315 or better over their last 5 games going up an against opponent with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 141-51 (73.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (968) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -144 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -144 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Grand Slam. The Reds were coming off a weekend split heading into the Monday opener of this series against St. Louis. They are 14-19 overall but are just five games out in the National League Central. St. Louis is also under .500 at 12-13 and had a recent four-game losing streak snapped with a win on Sunday thanks to a complete game from Adam Wainwright. Sonny Gray takes the hill for Cincinnati and he has been great, posting a 1.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through seven starts. He has been especially effective at home with a 1.07 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in four starts, all resulting in Reds wins. He has dominated St. Louis throughout the two years he has been in Cincinnati as he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in four starts. Kwang-hyun Kim counters for the Cardinals and he has posted two straight shutout outings over six innings where he allowed just three hits each time out. But his strikeout potential just is not there, and Cincinnati can take advantage for seeing him a second time this season. 10* (902) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-31-20 | White Sox v. Twins +120 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Minnesota has lost five straight games to fall into third place in the American League Central. Those all came on the road and the Twins head home where they are 12-3. Chicago has moved into a tie for first place in the division thanks to an 8-2 run and they will be heavily bet based on the starting pitching recent form of Lucas Giolito. He will make his first start since no-hitting Pittsburgh in a 4-0 win on Tuesday night, the 19th no-hitter in franchise history. In his last two starts, he has allowed three hits and two walks and no runs in 16 innings while striking out 26. He is just 4-6 with a 5.34 ERA in 11 career starts against Minnesota, including a 10-5 loss in the season-opener on July 24 when he allowed seven runs on six hits in just 3.2 innings. Rich Hill has made three starts, two of which have been quality. Here, we play on home teams after five or more consecutive losses, in August games. This situation is 46-26 (63.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Minnesota Twins |
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08-30-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Blue Jays defeated the Orioles 5-4 in 10 innings on Friday and 5-0 on Saturday to improve to 5-0 against Baltimore this season and have now won three straight games. They still trail the Rays by 4.5 games in the American League East but with the 2020 playoff format, they are right in the hunt for a postseason berth. The Orioles have lost four straight games and are now -18 in run differential. Jorge Lopez will be making his first start with Baltimore since he was claimed off waivers from the Royals on Aug. 9. He has allowed seven earned runs over nine innings with Baltimore in long relief. Tanner Roark counters for Toronto and while he has been inconsistent, he has not blown up and he shut down Baltimore in his earlier start against them, allowing one run in five innings. The Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (922) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Arizona has dropped six straight games following a series opening loss last night against the Rockies. The offense has been nowhere to be found as the Diamondbacks have scored a total of eight runs (1.33 rpg) during this skid but we expect the bats to get going tonight. Colorado snapped a seven-game losing streak with the victory and is now a game under .500 on the season. German Marquez got lit up in his last start as he allowed 10 runs on 10 hits in five innings against the Astros. Arizona has been a tough out as he has just three wins in 15 games while posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Alex Young has been decent in his two starts as his 1.17 WHIP is an indication of how he has performed. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a one run win over a division rival, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts. This situation is 84-39 (68.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-24-20 | Reds -135 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are both riding losing streaks, but the Reds have the upper hand to break their skid with the starting pitching matchup. Cincinnati has lost two straight games and three of its last four to fall to 11-15. The Brewers meanwhile have lost four straight games to also fall to 11-15 as the pitching has been abysmal. Cincinnati hands the ball to Trevor Bauer who has been sensational as he is 3-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP and he has arguably been the best starter this season in baseball. All of his starts have been quality outings and he has allowed just two home runs over 26.1 innings. Brett Anderson counters for Milwaukee and while he is coming off a quality outing last time out, he has been inconsistent. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher hitting .255 or worse against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 hitting team batting .190 or worse over their last three games. This situation is 38-9 (80.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-22-20 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Arizona has dropped three straight games following a six-game winning streak as it has fallen to 13-14 on the season and now sits 6.5 games behind the dodgers in the National League West. San Francisco has now won four straight games after taking the opener of this series last night following three straight wins over the Angels. The diamondbacks hand the ball to Zac Gallen who has a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through five starts. Arizona is 4-1 in those five games with his last four starts being quality outings. Tyler Anderson counters for the Giants and he has struggled of late, posting an 8.10 ERA over his last two starts covering 10 innings. 10* (929) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +107 | 3-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our Friday MLB Triple Play. Oakland has the best record in the American League including an 11-3 mark at home and going back to the beginning of the 2018 season, only the Yankees and Astros have better home records in the American League. The Angels have lost three straight games and seven of their last eight but come in as a road favorite. Andrew Heaney takes the hill for the Angels and he is off to a rough start with a 4.74 ERA and 1.30 WHIP which are not good numbers for an opening Day starter. The Angels are 1-4 in his five starts, including a 6-5 loss to the Dodgers his most recent time out. Mike Fiers has put up worse numbers but is coming off a quality start in his last outing to build off. Here, we play against Road teams with an on base percentage .310 or worse on the season, after allowing seven runs or more three straight games. This situation is 34-6 (85 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (976) Oakland A's |
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08-21-20 | Astros v. Padres -122 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our Friday MLB Triple Play. Houston has now won eight straight games following a four-game sweep of Colorado in a home-and-home set. Injuries continue to mount however as Alex Bregman joined Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley on the injured list. San Diego has won four straight games thanks to an offense that became the first in Major League history to hit grand slams in four consecutive games. Garrett Richards has gotten off to a solid start with a 3.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through five starts. Lance McCullers has kept the Astros in games, but he has struggled for the most part to a 5.47 ERA in five outings. Here, we play against American League road teams averaging 5.4 rpg going up against a National League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better, after a win by two runs or less. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 1997. 9* (974) San Diego Padres |
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08-21-20 | Brewers -131 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -131 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our Friday MLB Triple Play. Following a four-game winning streak, the Brewers are coming off a series loss in Minnesota. Milwaukee is now 11-12 and sits 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. Pittsburgh has lost four straight games and owns the worst record in baseball at 4-17 as it has the worst offense in runs scored per game and OPS and second to worst in batting average. Chad Kuhl has pitched decent in two starts but the long ball has plagued him with three home runs allowed in nine innings. Adrian Houser has a 3.27 ERA through five starts, allowing three runs or less in four of those. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more that are hitting .190 or worse over their last three games going up against an opponent with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 51-11 (82.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies -125 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Astros rolled to their seventh straight win with a 13-6 victory over Colorado on Wednesday. Houston is now 2.5 games behind Oakland in the American League West as the pitching has been outstanding. Colorado has dropped three straight games, all to Houston, and has lost six of its last seven to fall four games behind the dodgers in the National League West. German Marquez gets the ball for Colorado and he has been solid with five quality outings in his five starts. He has a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over this stretch. Houston counters with Cristian Javier who has been solid as well with a 2.91 ERA and 0.83 WHIP and he is coming off his best start of the season but that was against the Mariners which are near the bottom in nearly every offensive category. The Astros are 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog while the Rockies are 9-4 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (906) Colorado Rockies |
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08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies +138 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Houston and Colorado continue their Interleague series, but they shit to Coors Field. The Astros entered Tuesday on a six-game winning streak, and they are now 12-10 on the season after a shaky start. As is usually the case, they are a better home team than road team where they are 3-6 on the season. The Rockies got off to a great start at 11-3 but have dropped six of their last eight games and are now three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Colorado sends Ryan Castellani to the hill as he will be making his third start of the season. He has not gone deep in his first two start but has been efficient with a 1.04 ERA and 0.58 WHIP over 8.2 innings. Framber Valdez gets the ball for Houston and he too has been solid with a 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts and a relief appearance. However, this is his first time facing Colorado and more important, first time toeing it up at Coors Field. 10* (972) Colorado Rockies |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees -105 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. A solid pitching matchup in New York on Tuesday with the Yankees having the edge at a short price. They have won five straight games going into Monday and send Masahiro Tanaka to the hill and he has been solid in three starts with a 2.31 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is 10-4 against Tampa Bay with an ERA of 3.07 and a WHIP of 0.90 in 19 career starts. Blake Snell has better numbers this season, but he is 3-6 against the Yankees with an ERA of 4.23 and a WHIP of 1.45. The Yankees are 50-17 in home games against American League teams with a batting average of .265 or worse over the last two seasons. 10* (912) New York Yankees |
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08-17-20 | Padres -130 v. Rangers | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Padres have lost five straight games including the first two in this series to fall to 11-12 on the season. We played on San Diego yesterday and lost despite a solid effort from Garrett Richards as the bullpen allowed three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to fall 5-4. The Padres turn to Zack Davies who has been solid through four starts as he has a 2.78 ERA and 0.84 WHIP as he has posted four quality outings in those for games. This includes three on the road where he had games in Colorado and Los Angeles. Texas had a four-game winning streak snapped with a 10-6 loss at Colorado. Jordan Lyles counters for Texas and he has struggled in three starts where he has a 6.91 ERA with a rough 10:11 K:BB ratio. 10* (965) San Diego Padres |
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08-16-20 | Padres -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Padres have lost four straight games including the first two in this series to fall to 11-11 on the season. Arizona meanwhile has won three in a row to improve to 10-11 and the Diamondbacks are now 4.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Robbie Ray has gotten off to a horrific start as he has yet to post a quality outing in four starts and has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three games. Garrett Richards has had much more success as he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts including a gem last time out as he allowed one run over six innings on Tuesday in a win over the Dodgers. 10* (927) San Diego Padres |
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08-14-20 | Brewers +102 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee dropped the opener of this series on Thursday to make it two straight losses and the Brewers are now 7-10 on the season. Chicago has won three straight games and owns an MLB-best 13-3 record. This is the best start for the Cubs since 1907. Pitching has been solid for Chicago and it sends Tyler Chatwood to the hill tonight. Chatwood posted two quality starts to begin the season, but the Royals hammered him his last time out for eight runs on 11 hits in 2.1 innings. Brandon Woodruff counters for the Brewers and he is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.98 WHIP though four starts. Three of those have been quality outings and he owns a 26:5 K:BB ratio. 10* (917) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians -115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Chicago took the opener of this series with a 7-1 win on Tuesday to make it seven wins in its last eight games. The Cubs are now 11-3 overall and have a 4.5-game lead over three teams in the National League Central. Cleveland remains a game out of first place in the American League Central as it sits at 10-8 thanks to great pitching. The Indians are allowing just 2.5 rpg and a .196 batting average, both of which are best in baseball. Carlos Carrasco takes the hill for Cleveland and he has put together three quality outings to open the season and overall has a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 18 innings. Kyle Hendricks counter for the Cubs and while he has two quality outings in three starts, those were both at home and he was shelled by Cincinnati on the road where he allowed six runs in just 4.1 innings. 10* (910) Cleveland Indians |
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08-11-20 | Nationals -138 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Washington won the first game of the series in a 16-4 rout last night to move to 5-7 on the season. Max Scherzer gets the ball for the Nationals and he has yet to get a win this season but has a 3.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was lifted after one inning from his last start Wednesday against the Mets in D.C. due to discomfort in his hamstring but is back to full strength. The Mets fell to 7-10 with the Monday loss and they turn to Rick Porcello who is coming off a quality outing against Washington but has still struggled overall as he has posted a 6.92 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in three starts over 13 innings. The Washington bats stay hot as they get a second straight look at Porcello which is a big edge. 10* (963) Washington Nationals |
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08-10-20 | White Sox -134 v. Tigers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Monday Enforcer. Chicago has lost two straight games and four of its last five to fall to 8-8 on the season and it trails the Twins by two games in the American League Central. Detroit meanwhile has won three straight games to improve to 8-5 following two straight losses. The White Sox turn to Dallas Keuchel, who has looked very sharp so far this season, going 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The Tigers counter with Michael Fulmer who was shelled for four runs, including three home runs, in just 2.2 innings against the Royals. It was his first start since 2018 after he missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. 10* (903) Chicago White Sox |
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08-07-20 | Reds -110 v. Brewers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Reds are coming off a brutal 13-0 loss to the Orioles which was their third straight loss and second straight shutout defeat. The offense has been abysmal, but they get a good matchup here as they face Eric Lauer who is making his first start of the season after posting 2.2 innings of relief work way back on July 26. In his career, he has a 4.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Milwaukee is also struggling on offense as the Brewers are averaging just 3.5 rpg and are hitting just .206. They have a much tough matchup as they square off against Trevor Bauer who has a 0.68 ERA and a 0.53 WHIP with 20 strikeouts in 13.1 innings through two starts. 10* (967) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-06-20 | Reds v. Indians -115 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Cleveland has won two straight games, both over Cincinnati, to move to 7-6 on the season, trailing the Twins by three and a half games in the American League Central. The Indians lead the bigs in ERA at 2.37 as the pitching has led the way behind an offense that has struggled early on. Carlos Carrasco has looked great in his first two starts since May 2019 as he has a 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Both starts have been quality outings and he is a perfect 3-0 in five starts against the Reds. Cincinnati has fallen to 6-7 with the two straight losses and it turns to Luis Castillo who posted a quality outing in his first start against the Tigers but got hit hard last time out against Detroit, allowing five runs on eight hits in six innings. 10* (910) Cleveland Indians |
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08-05-20 | Twins v. Pirates +162 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. This is a contrarian play where we will be backing the worst team in the league going up against one of the hottest. The Pirates own the worst record in baseball at 2-9 and ended a five-game road trip by getting swept in a two-game series at Minnesota including a 7-3 loss yesterday. Minnesota meanwhile is 9-2 which is tied for the best start in franchise history. Trevor Williams will look to right the ship after coming off a pair of average starts and he will be making his first home start of the season. Randy Dobnak counters for the Twins following two solid outings but only one of those was a quality start. The Pirates bats are due for an outburst. 10* (958) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-04-20 | White Sox +123 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 123 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The White Sox have won five straight games and look to keep that momentum going tonight and we catch them at an underdog price. Milwaukee is off to a 3-4 start as the offense has been hit or miss thus far. Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Chicago and after recording just 11 outs while allowing seven runs in his first start, he rebounded Wednesday by allowing just four hits, two walks while recording six strikeouts in six shutout innings. He finished fifth in the American League in strikeouts per nine innings at 11.6 last season and Milwaukee is a team that loves to miss the ball. Brandon Woodruff counters for the Brewers and he has gotten off to a solid start but faces a tough lineup with the White Sox that are averaging 5.7 rpg which is fourth in all of baseball. 10* (917) Chicago White Sox |
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08-03-20 | Mets -123 v. Braves | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. After a 3-2 start, the Mets have lost their last five games including the first three games in this four-game set with the Braves. The offense has managed just one run over the last two games but that comes around tonight. Atlanta meanwhile has won five straight games after a 2-3 start and the Braves are third in the National League in run differential at +17. New York sends Jacob deGrom to the hill and he has been solid thus far with a 1.64 ERA and 0.55 WHIP through two starts. He allowed no runs and one hit in five innings in his first start against Atlanta and he has dominated the Braves with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 22 career starts. Mike Soroka counters for Atlanta and he has gotten off to a solid start as well but he has struggled at home with a 4.03 ERA in 16 starts compared to a 1.73 ERA on the road. 10* (957) New York Mets |
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08-02-20 | Astros v. Angels +131 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Angels snapped a three-game skid with a 5-4 win on Saturday to move to 3-6 on the season and they look to build on that momentum to take this series. The Astros have dropped three of their last four games as the offense has been quiet since a hot start to the season. Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for the Angels and his first start could not have gone much worse. He allowed five runs on three hits and three walks without recording an out in his first start of the season, but we expect a solid comeback today. He will be opposed by Josh James who is coming off just his fifth career start and it was not a good one as he allowed three runs on three hits and walked five batters in just three innings. 10* (924) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-01-20 | Red Sox +159 v. Yankees | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Boston snapped a four-game losing streak by taking two games from the Mets but lost the series opener to the Yankees on Friday. New York has now won four straight games and seem to be a bit overpriced with this line. Zack Godley gets the start for Boston after tossing four shutout innings of relief against the Mets where he allowed just four hits and no walks while striking out seven. Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball for New York and he is making his season debut after suffering a head injury during summer camp. He was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in 32 appearances (31 starts) last season. Last season, he was 0-1 with a 24.75 ERA in three starts against Boston, and in the past two seasons, he has a 12.67 ERA over 27 innings. 10* (969) Boston Red Sox |
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07-31-20 | Mets v. Braves -132 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Braves improved to 4-3 following a pair of wins over Tampa Bay and look to carry that momentum into the series opener against the Mets. Atlanta took two of three games in the first series this season against the Mets and this is a rematch of starters in the series finale, won by Atlanta 14-1. Given an eight-run lead, Sean Newcomb was removed after 3.1 innings and failed to get the win. He was not in command, but we should expect a solid turnaround here. Rick Porcello was shelled in that game as he allowed seven runs in just two innings. He went 14-12 last year for Boston with a 5.52 ERA, highest among 61 qualified starters. 10* (912) Atlanta Braves |
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07-30-20 | Royals -129 v. Tigers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Kansas City look to earn a split in this four-game series as it has dropped the last two games, each by a single run. The Royals offense has been non-existent except for a 14-run outburst in the series opener and we expect and outburst tonight. Kansas City got an excellent start from Brady Singer in his Major League debut as he allowed two runs and three hits with seven strikeouts in five innings. He was a first round pick in 2018 but was not expected to be on the roster this soon although he showed what he is capable of and why he was picked where he was. The Tigers improved to 4-2 but their offense has been inconsistent as well. Ivan Nova gets the ball for Detroit and his opener was not nearly as sharp as he allowed three runs in five innings while striking out just two. He gave up two home runs and he has been near the top of baseball over the last three years in home runs allowed. 10* (959) Kansas City Royals |
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07-29-20 | Cubs v. Reds -109 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After opening the season with a win over Detroit, the Reds have dropped four straight games including the first two in this series against Chicago. The pitching has been the detriment as Cincinnati has allowed eight runs in each of the first two games against the Cubs and that should change tonight with Sonny Gray taking the hill. He is coming off a solid opening start where he allowed one run on three hits while striking out nine over six innings. He faced the Cubs five times last season and was dominant, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 30 innings. The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks who is coming off an even more dominating performance as he tossed a three-hit shutout against the Brewers. He struggles against the Reds last season, posting a 5.16 ERA over four starts. 10* (910) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-28-20 | Padres v. Giants +135 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. San Diego is coming off a series win against Arizona by winning three of the four games in the set including a 6-2 win on Monday. The Padres pitching has been outstanding as their 2.25 ERA is good for third in all of baseball. All four of those games were at home however and Petco Park is known as a pitcher park. Zach Davies makes his Padres debut after four decent seasons in Milwaukee where he posted a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, nothing earth shattering. The Giants are making their home opener after splitting four games against the the Dodgers. Jeff Samardzija is coming off his best season as a Giant as he posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 32 starts. He faced San Diego four times last season and had a 3.33 ERA covering 24.1 innings. 10* (980) San Francisco Giants |
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07-27-20 | Cubs v. Reds +107 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Reds won the season opener against the Tigers but dropped the last two games over the weekend. They remain home to take on the Cubs Monday in the start of a four-game set that is already important for divisional purposes in the shortened season. Wade Miley gets the ball for Cincinnati after coming off two solid seasons in Milwaukee and Baltimore. He has a 3.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Cubs. Jon Lester counters for Chicago and he is coming off his worst season in terms of WHIP as he posted a 1.50 which was his worst since his rookie season in 2006. He faced the Reds three times last season and went 0-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. 10* (908) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-24-20 | Brewers v. Cubs -105 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After missing the playoffs last season, the Cubs are near the top to finish in first place in the National League Central. Milwaukee has made the playoffs the last two seasons which is keeping this price down, so we are getting great value with Chicago. Kyle Hendricks takes the hill for Chicago and he is coming off another solid season where he posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 30 starts and he has dominated the Brewers with a 3.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 career starts. Brandon Woodruff had a solid season but has struggled against the Cubs with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 ERA in five games. 10* (962) Chicago Cubs |
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10-30-19 | Nationals +125 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The road team has dominated this series with six wins through six games and while many will be chasing the home team, we are riding the trend and the road team will sweep this series. Washington overcame a controversial interference call by taking Game Six behind a sensational effort from Stephen Strasburg and its other ace takes the hill tonight with extra rest. In postseason history, including all series and Wild Card Games, home teams are only 57-60 in winner-take-all games. That includes 19-20 in the World Series, where home teams have lost three straight Game Sevens, most recently the Dodgers to the Astros in 2017. Max Scherzer was scratched from Game Five due to a neck issue but he is back after a cortisone shot. He was good, but not great, in the first game of the series. After yielding a pair of runs in the first inning, Scherzer kept Houston off the board, with seven strikeouts and three walks. He has been better on the road than at home with a 2.46 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 14 starts with Washington going 10-4. Zack Greinke has been below average at home with a 4.84 ERA through six starts and he has had a rough postseason with a 5.30 ERA in four starts. 10* (913) Washington Nationals |
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10-26-19 | Astros v. Nationals +101 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. This is the first time in 23 years that the road team has won the first three game of the World Series and we see that coming to an end tonight. After cashing in with runners in scoring position at seemingly every chance during the first two games, the Nationals bats went cold in Game Three, going 0-10 with runners in scoring position while stranding 12 runners on base. Those bats can come alive early tonight. Jose Urquidy has made two effective relief appearances in the postseason but will make his first career playoff start in this Houston bullpen game. Patrick Corbin gets the ball for the Nationals and he should be in perfect form. He has spent more time pitching in relief than as a starter this month, but in the three days after a scoreless 21-pitch sixth inning in Game One, he has been able to get back to his normal routine. The Nationals went 14-3 in his 17 home starts where he posted a 3.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The back of the Nationals bullpen is rested and ready after Fernando Rodney, Joe Ross and Wander Suero pitched 3.2 scoreless innings in Game Three. 10* (908) Washington Nationals |
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10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. History is not on the side of the Astros to make an epic comeback as in all postseason series with the 2-3-2 format, teams going down 0-2 at home have come back to win just three of 25 times. Most recently, the 1996 Yankees in the World Series against the Braves. But Houston just needs to take it one game at a time. Washington is off to a surprising 2-0 start in this series and it is the offense that has led the way. The Nationals offense erupted for 12 runs on 14 hits and three homers to carry themselves to victory in Game Two. The Nationals are no doubt red hot right now as with a win on Friday, the Nationals would become the first team to win nine consecutive games in a single postseason. That being said, we expect the Astros bats to come alive. Washington hands the ball to Anibal Sanchez and while he has been solid of late, there is concern. In two starts over 12.2 innings, he has given up just one run on five hits, with 14 strikeouts and three walks, but this will be his first start since Game One of the National League Championship Series on October 11th. Zack Greinke had a rough go of it against Tampa Bay but his last two starts have been solid as he has a 3.48 ERA over 10.1 innings. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 70-34 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (905) Houston Astros |
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10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros -175 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Nationals last night as big underdogs but we will be switching sides tonight in what is essentially a must win game for Houston. History is on the Nationals side as 25 of the last 31 Game One winners have gone on to win the World Series but we cannot count out the Astros, who just lost Game One of the ALCS at home before rebounding to defeat the Yankees. We played against the Astros and Gerrit Cole and the results were as predicted. Cole managed to get through seven innings, but he allowed five runs on eight hits after giving up one run on 10 hits in 22.2 innings across his first three postseason outings. Including the playoffs, he had allowed five or more runs in only two of his previous 36 outings in 2019, and not since May 22 against the White Sox. What this means for Justin Verlander is that he has to maintain his game and not allow the Nationals to take a 2-0 series lead. While his postseason has been up and down, venue has played a role. He has a 1.32 ERA in two home starts compared to a 6.75 ERA in two road starts. Stephen Strasburg has been great all season but like the Nationals last night, we expect the Astros bats to get to him and follow up their 10-hit performance with another big offensive output. 10* (904) Houston Astros |
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10-22-19 | Nationals +201 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 201 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Tuesday Game One Sweet Spot. The National are also getting excellent value in Game One with Max Scherzer on the hill. He has been an underdog only once all season and that resulted in a win at the Dodgers are just +122 and the number is well above that here. He had another sensational regular season and Scherzer is coming off back-to-back excellent outings in the postseason, allowing a combined one run on five hits and five walks with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings. Gerrit Cole is not going to be easy to get through but the Yankees nearly did it in his last start but they stranded too runners. He is on one of the most amazing runs of any starting pitcher in recent history, going 19-0 with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and 258 strikeouts in 169. innings in his last 25 starts, including the playoffs. The Astros have won each of his last 16 starts so this will not be easy for Washington but we are taking the chance. 10* (901) Washington Nationals Game One |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +132 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 132 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Game of the Week. It is now do or die for the Yankees after dropping the first two games at home to fall behind in this series 3-1. History is not in their favor as through 2018, only 13 teams out of 86 had come back to win a best-of-seven series after dropping three of the first four contests. While that may be the case, we are looking for just one win to send the series back to Houston and we are doing it going against the public. Houston has won the last three games after dropping the opener 7-0 and it turns to Justin Verlander to close the series. Since his no-hitter in Toronto on the first day of September, he has made just two starts on the road and has posted a 6.52 ERA while allowing four home runs over those 9.2 innings. James Paxton went against Verlander in the first game of this series and got the early hook as he went just 2.1 innings despite allowing only one run. He has been great at home with a 3.48 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with the Yankees going 12-4 in his 16 home starts and that includes six straight wins. Additionally, the Yankees are 6-0 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 5.4 or more rpg going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a game where they committed three or more errors. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) New York Yankees |
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10-15-19 | Astros -144 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Astros were able to salvage a split at home after losing the opening game of the ALCS. Now they will be out to get back home field advantage in the series with a victory on Tuesday and they are in good shape with their hottest pitching on the hill.. Houston is 92-37 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons. The Yankees are in a difficult spot tonight despite posting a stellar record at home. Gerrit Cole has taken over as the Astros ace as he has been lights out. In 24 starts in the regular season and playoffs since May 27, Cole is 18-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, striking out 251 batters in 162.1 innings in that span. The Astros are 22-2 in those starts, including 15-0 in the times Cole has taken the ball since July 17. Luis Severino is a dynamic pitcher but he is coming back from injury and has been limited as he has tossed 83 pitches or less in four starts. He is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. Here, we play on favorites with a money line of -150 or more that are hitting .190 or worse over their last three games, starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 59-9 (86.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) Houston Astros |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals +123 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Down 0-2 in this series, the Cardinals have a must win game on their hands tonight and we expect them to come through to avoid the huge 0-3 deficit. St. Louis has been unable to get through the starting pitching in the first two games and that is a big problem considering the Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.66 ERA and .266 BAA. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Nationals and he came through with two solid outings against the Dodgers and he has been pitching well for a while now but the Cardinals are 5-2 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Jack Flaherty has been pitching at a higher level as he has posted a 1.13 ERA since July 7th, a span of 18 starts where he has not allowed more than three runs in any of those games. Here, we play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .215 or worse over their last five games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 111-73 (60.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -154 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Astros were humbled at home last night, getting shutout 7-0 while registering just three hits. They closed at -147 favorites in a not-so-favorable pitching matchup and they are listed as slightly higher favorites tonight in a very favorable pitching matchup. Despite the win last night, the Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 playoff road games while the Astros are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Justin Verlander is coming off his worst outing in a while against the Rays as he allowed four runs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings but that was on the road. He has a 2.21 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 18 home starts and he has allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 10 home outings. He earned MVP honors in the 2017 ALCS after he limited the Yankees to one run on 10 hits and two walks with 21 strikeouts over 16 innings in two starts. James Paxton has been pitching better over the second half of the season but he is coming off a rough outing against the Twins, allowing three runs in 4.2 innings. His lone start in Houston this season was a disaster as he allowed five runs in four innings and going back, the Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (908) Houston Astros |
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10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Washington stole Game One of this series last night behind an epic performance from Anibal Sanchez who quietly tossed a no-hitter into the eighth inning and the Cardinals were limited to one hit the entire game. Things do not get any easier today as St. Louis has to face Max Scherzer but he is gettable here. He has been solid this postseason with a 2.77 ERA but the one thing that has clipped him throughout his career is the long ball as he has allowed three home runs in 13 innings. He has not been the same since coming back from an injury on August 22 and his worst start since then happened to be right here where he allowed five runs, including a pair of home runs, in 6.2 innings on September 18. Adam Wainwright tossed a gem against Braves, going 7.2 innings without allowing a run and giving up just four hits. He has been awesome at home with a 2.37 ERA and he faced Washington twice this season, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA over 13.1 innings. Here, we play on home teams averaging 4.7 rpg against a very good starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 87-49 (64 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -117 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Washington and St. Louis square off in the NLCS as both are coming off underdog series wins in the NLDS. Anibal Sanchez has resurrected his career over the last two seasons in Atlanta and Washington. He had a horrible stint in Detroit but has posted a 3.09 ERA between his time with the Braves and Nationals. His numbers are up this season including his ERA that is a run higher than it was last season. He posted a solid start against the Dodgers but the bullpen let him down which has been an issue this postseason with a 6.63 ERA over 19 innings. This has carried over from the regular season where the Nationals posted a 5.66 ERA, worst in the Majors. Miles Mikolas counters for the Cardinals and he is also coming off a solid postseason start on the road in Atlanta in the NLDS. He has been great at home this season with a 3.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 15 starts and he has a bullpen behind him that has been great as they finished fifth in MLB with a 3.82 ERA. 10* (902) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves +105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Braves were four outs away from a series victory Monday afternoon, but Yadier Molina looped a game-tying RBI single in the eighth inning before lofting the walk-off sacrifice fly in the 10th that lifted the Cardinals to a 5-4 win. Game Five returns to Atlanta with a pitching rematch that we expect to come out the same. The Braves are 51-32 at home which is tied for the second best home record in the National League and we are catching an underdog price similar to that in Game Two. Mike Foltynewicz was sensational in his first start in this series and he has been pitching great for a while now. He has allowed three runs or less in his last nine starts while posting a 1.69 ERA over that stretch covering 53.1 innings. He has now allowed no runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Braves. Jack Flaherty was the losing pitching in Game Two but he still posted a quality outing for the ninth straight time. He is the reason the Braves are favored on the road but the Cardinals are 1-5 in his last six road starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Braves are 5-1 in their last six games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 5.0 rpg with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Atlanta Braves |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +138 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have a 2-0 lead in this series and can wrap it up tonight in Minnesota although we are expecting this series to go to a Game Four. New York has erupted for 18 runs in the first two games but doing that damage on the road is unlikely. The Twins offense was not nearly as potent but they have been a great bounce back teams as they are 25-8 in their last 33 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Luis Severino gets the ball for the Yankees after making just three starts in the regular season due to right rotator cuff inflammation. He will be limited as he has not thrown more than 80 pitches. He is making his seventh career postseason star and faces the team he met in his first postseason start in the 2017 AL Wild Card Game, when he pitched just one-third of an inning and allowed three runs. The Yankees are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Jake Odorizzi turned things around in his second year in Minnesota. After posting a 4.49 ERA in 32 starts in 2018, Odorizzi had a 3.51 ERA in 30 starts this year. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts including five straight at home. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last five road games against right-handed starters while the Twins are 7-0 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (908) Minnesota Twins |
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10-04-19 | Nationals +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Washington had an eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss in Game One last night but it was not all that surprising after its crazy win on Tuesday in the Wild Card game against Milwaukee. The Nationals have won four straight games following a loss. The Dodgers are riding an eight-game winning streak so they are clearly peaking at the right time but there is too much value on the National side. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for Washington and is in a good spot at a great price. While Strasburg has never made a start on three days of rest in his 10-year career, Nationals manager Dave Martinez said he considers his 34-pitch outing Tuesday as a high-intensity between-start bullpen session so there will be no effect. In 11 career starts against the Dodgers, Strasburg has a 2.54 ERA and he has been impressive at Dodger Stadium with a 2.08 ERA over four starts covering 26 innings. Clayton Kershaw had another great season with a 3.03 ERA but we cannot forget his postseason struggles as he has a 4.32 ERA in 30 playoff appearances. The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 games against left-handed starters. 10* (921) Washington Nationals |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -139 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -139 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday NLDS Blowout. St. Louis heads to Atlanta for Game One of the NLDS after taking the National League Central. The Cardinals finished just one game over .500 on the road during the regular season which is a big reason this line has been bet up from a -119 opening at Pinnacle. While the rosters have changed somewhat, the Cardinals are 0-6 in their last six playoff road games. Atlanta was able to hold off Washington to win the National League East by four games and secure the home field edge in this series. The Braves dropped their final three games of the regular season but those were meaningless and they were on the road. Atlanta went 50-31 at home and going back, the Braves are 7-2 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. Dallas Keuchel gets the ball for the Braves and after a great six-game run, two of his last three starts were not great but his postseason experience makes him a great Game One option. It will be the 11th career postseason appearance for Keuchel, who was expected to fill this role when he was signed as a free agent in June. He went 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA in his previous playoff games with the Houston Astros. Miles Mikolas counters for the Cardinals and he had an average season but he was way below average on the road, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 17 starts. 10* (916) Atlanta Braves |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -133 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The home team came through last night, unfortunate for us, and tonight we will be backing the American League home team. Oakland finished the season 97-65, one game ahead of Tampa Bay to lock down the home field edge in this winner take all Wild Card game. The Athletics are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay closed the season with a pair of meaningless losses in Toronto. Pitching is the strength of the Rays, similar to that of Oakland but there is a big disadvantage in a one-game scenario as with more than 250 home runs this season, the Athletics are more capable than Tampa Bay of producing those runs in bunches. The Rays are 31-66 in their last 97 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Oakland hands the ball to Sean Manaea which was a bit of a surprise due to his limited action but he was nasty. Manaea has pitched in five games since returning from surgery on his left shoulder, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA. He has allowed 16 hits and seven walks in 29.1 innings and struck out 30. Charlie Morton counters for Tampa Bay and he had an outstanding season. While he posted the same 8-3 record at both home and on the road, his road ERA was a full run higher on the highway, 3.59 compared to 2.59. 10* (914) Oakland Athletics |
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10-01-19 | Brewers +170 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Wild Card Dominator. The Nationals already are, and will be going forward until gametime, a very popular play in the National League Wild Card game and it makes sense why. Washington claimed home field in the beginning of the weekend and is currently riding an eight game winning streak as it was able to overtake Milwaukee. The Brewers had a chance to win the National League Central but closed the season with three straight losses in Colorado to fall into this spot. Max Scherzer gets the ball for Washington and while he is the ace of the staff, he has not been of late. He has been at least somewhat hittable since his return from injury this year, with a 4.73 ERA in seven starts. He does have 54 strikeouts and only eight walks in that time but has been bitten by issues with the home run ball, serving up eight of them during this seven-game stretch. He is beatable, especially at home where Washington is just 6-9 in his 15 starts and he finished the season as the least profitable pitcher in the rotation at -8.85 units. Milwaukee will send All-Star Brandon Woodruff to the mound. He finished his first full season in the big leagues with a 3.62 ERA in 121.2 innings across 22 starts this season, along with a far more impressive 67 FIP. He will not be stretched out as he is coming off a pair of two-inning outings following his return from an oblique injury but this is not a bad thing as the bullpen is one of the better ones in baseball. 10* (911) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-27-19 | Indians +134 v. Nationals | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After dropping two straight games to the White Sox, the Indians trail the Rays by two games with three to play for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Those two games are going to come back and haunt Cleveland most likely but all it can do now is win and hope that they can get some help. This comes on the heels of a 7-1 run and going back, the Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington also has playoff implications on the line but not nearly as severe as it is playing for the home field in the National League Wild Card. Zach Plesac gets the ball for the Indians and he has been solid on the road with a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and he has been especially good in his night starts, posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with Cleveland going 9-2 in 11 starts. Austin Voth has been pitching well but has posted only one quality outing over his last six starts as he does not go deep and has gone over 90 pitches only twice in his career. Here, we play against National League home teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 33-16 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (979) Cleveland Indians |
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09-25-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Game of the Week. After winning the 15-inning marathon game on Monday, the Blue Jays dropped Game Two last night but it is still 6-3 over its last nine games. This is the final likely winnable game of the season as they close with a series against Tampa Bay which is right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Baltimore is coming off a rare win and as mentioned Monday, it is one of four teams that have 100 losses this season. The Orioles are 17-49 in their last 66 games following a win. Jacob Waguespack gets the start for Toronto and while his numbers do not look overly appeasing, digging deeper shows why. Of his 12 starts, nine have come against winning teams, eight of which are in current playoff positions with Boston being the other. He has a 3.24 ERA in his three starts against teams with a losing record covering 16.2 innings. It has been a rough season for Gabriel Ynoa who has rotated between the starting rotation and the bullpen and neither has been particularly good. In 12 starts, he has a 6.12 ERA and since winning his first start back in May, Baltimore is 0-11 in his 11 starts since then. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they are 10-2 this season against American League pitchers with an ERA of 5.90 or worse. 10* (968) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -107 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee posted its eighth win in nine games and improved to an MLB best 17-4 in September following its 4-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Brewers also own a 10-2 mark since losing Christian Yelich to a fractured kneecap. They have a four-game cushion for the second Wild Card spot in the National League and are a half-game behind Washington for the first spot so winning is still the goal. That being said, they are in a tough spot here. Cincinnati is coming off a series loss against the Mets and it opens its final home series of the season with its ace on the hill. Sonny Gray has been sensational this season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and has accounted for 19 of the 73 wins for the Reds. He has allowed three runs or less in nine straight starts and Gray improved to 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his career against Milwaukee after making four solid starts this season. Adrian Houser counters for the Brewers and he has struggled over his last few starts, tossing non-quality outings over his last six starts. The Brewers are 2-6 in his eight road starts this season. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-23-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -166 | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. This line came out late due to the Baltimore pitching change. This is the final homestand of the season for Toronto and this young team will want to go out like a bang. The Blue Jays had a five-game winning streak snapped over the weekend with a pair of losses to the Yankees. Toronto is 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Baltimore closed out its home portion of the schedule with a win over the Mariners on Sunday and that could provide a letdown in what has been a disaster of a season. The Orioles are one of four teams in baseball with at least 100 losses, which is a new record, and going back, the Orioles are 17-48 in their last 65 games following a win. Clay Buchholz got lit up in his last start which happened to come against Baltimore but it was on the road where he has been awful. The Orioles counter with Chandler Shepherd who is making his second career start. His first was an average one against Toronto where he allowed three runs in four inning over 68 pitches. Not a good sign considering Baltimore has the second worst ERA in baseball. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 9* (958) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-21-19 | Giants +137 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Braves clinched their 19th division championship, and second straight, with a 6-0 win over the Giants Friday night at SunTrust Park. Celebrations went long into the evening which certainly puts them in a bad spot tonight and it is likely some players will sit but not much to play for at this points. Atlanta trails the Dodgers by 4.5 games for the best record in the National League so catching them with seven games left is likely unattainable. The Giants have dropped two straight games following a three-game winning streak and turn to Johnny Cueto to post another solid start. He has allowed no runs in two starts, both covering five innings and while he is being limited, he remains efficient. It helps having a bullpen that is fifth in baseball with a 3.83 ERA behind him. The Braves hand the ball to Max Fried who has had his moments but has struggled of late. He has allowed 10 runs over his last two starts covering just 7.1 innings. 10* (959) San Francisco Giants |
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09-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -108 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Arizona was in the heat of the National League Wild Card race but a 3-8 run has dropped them five games back with just eight games remaining. The Diamondbacks are .500 on the road overall but have dropped five straight on the highway. San Diego is back home following a 1-6 roadtrip but those games were against Colorado at Coors Field and contending Milwaukee. The Padres have won four of their last six games at home and they are 19-8 in their last 27 games after batting .200 or worse over a five game span. Eric Lauer takes the hill for San Diego and while his numbers have been up and down, the down has been on the road. Lauer has allowed three runs or less in 11 straight starts at home and the Padres are 5-0 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Merrill Kelly has tossed three straight quality starts but two of those were at home and he brings in a 5.89 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in his last seven road starts. 10* (912) San Diego Padres |
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09-19-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -103 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Game of the Week. A huge four-game series opens tonight in Chicago with the Cubs trying to make up three games on the Cardinals in the National League Central. Chicago has won five straight games before a pair of losses against the Reds and they remain in a tie with Milwaukee for the second wild Card spot in the National League so there is a lot going on. The Cubs are 51-26 at home which is second best in the National League and they have won their last seven series openers. St. Louis is coming off a 3-3 homestand and is just 4-5 over its last nine games. The Cardinals are nothing special on the road at two games under .500 and they are 7-20 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record. Jack Flaherty is the reason this line is so low and to his credit, he has been lights out. However, the offense has backed him with two runs or less in six of his last eight starts and Wrigley Field is not his friend with a 6.35 ERA over four starts. Kyle Hendricks has been dealing it as well with the exception of a couple bad road outings. He has a 1.75 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 home starts with 12 of those being quality outings. Chicago has won 10 straight and 14 of his last 17 starts against the Cardinals. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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09-18-19 | Padres +137 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee has won the first two games of this four-game series to make it four straight wins. The Brewers have won 11 of their last 12 games to fall into a tie with the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They are also just two games back of St. Louis in the National League Central. That being said at a short price, the public is all over them tonight and puts them in a perfect fade spot. The Padres meanwhile have lost six straight games. The pitching was a disaster early on but three of those games came at Coors Field and now it is the offense which has scored just one run in each of the first two games of this series. Dinelson Lamet gets the ball for San Diego and he has huge upside. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of 12 starts and has struck out seven or more in half of his starts including a pair of double-digit strike out performances. He has a healthy 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road. Adrian Houser is having a solid season but fatigue is coming into play. He has a 6.35 ERA over his last three starts and has a max of 5.1 innings over his last five starts. The Brewers are 3-8 in his last 11 starts. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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09-17-19 | Reds +148 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 148 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Cubs won the opener of this series last night and while they are trying to play their way into the playoffs, we are backing the Reds behind their ace at a great price. Chicago has won five straight games as the offense continues to be explosive, averaging 11.8 rpg over the winning streak but it has not faced a pitcher like it will tonight. Cincinnati is 3-4 on this current roadtrip but has won three of its last five and turns to its ace in Sonny Gray. He has posted a 1.29 ERA over his last eight starts and has allowed more than one run in only two of those. The Reds are 14-3 in his last 17 starts against teams with a winning record. The Cubs counter with Yu Darvish who has been pitching well but it is hard not to see his 5.14 ERA at home and be concerned. Here, we play against teams that are hitting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 67-36 (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-16-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 129 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. St. Louis is coming off a brutal loss on Sunday as it went into the ninth inning with a 4-3 lead but allowed a Ryan Braun grand slam and eventually lost the game 7-6. The Cardinals lead in the National League Central has gone down to two games over the Cubs and three games over the Brewers. The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. Washington won its series finale over Atlanta to maintain its game and a half lead over Chicago for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. The Nationals have lost four straight series openers and they are 1-4 in their last five games following a win. Stephen Strasburg comes in as the favorite mostly on name alone although he is having a great season. He has not been as efficient on the road as he has been at home. St. Louis counters with Dakota Hudson who can make a strong case of being the favorite here. He has posted a 1.43 ERA over his last six starts, allowing no runs in four of those. The Cardinals are 11-3 in his last 14 starts following a quality outing in his last game. 10* 904) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-15-19 | Marlins v. Giants -154 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Miami snapped a five-game winning streak with a win last night but it still managed just four runs and it is averaging 2.8 rpg over its last six games. The Marlins are 12-26 in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has lost three of its last four games on this current homestand but it is in a great pitching matchup today. Elieser Hernandez has been all over the place this season as he is coming off his third straight non-quality start and he has just two quality outings over his last 12 starts. He has a 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 33 innings on the road. Johnny Cueto had a solid effort in his first start back from Tommy John surgery as he tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and one walk. He gets the benefit of another home start in his second outing and going back, the Giants are 13-4 in his last 17 home starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play on home favorites that are hitting .215 or worse over their last 10 games going up against an opponent that is hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 49-14 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants |
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09-13-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -124 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Game of the Year. Milwaukee completed the four-game sweep in Miami on Thursday to make it seven straight wins and now sit four games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central. They have won the last two without the services of Christian Yelich and he will be missed down the stretch run. while the Brewers have been hot, they have been taking to the bad teams and going back, they are 4-9 in their last 13 road games against team with a winning record. The Cardinals salvaged a game in Colorado to maintain their lead and after a disappointing 3-3 roadtrip, they head back home where they are 46-26, the second best home record in the National League. With just over two weeks left in the season, St. Louis is in good shape for a playoff berth but there is still room to fall out and a win the series opener is huge. The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 home games against teams with a losing road record. While Adam Wainwright is nearing the end of a great career with St. louis, he is having his best season since 2014. His overall numbers are not impressive, but he has been dealing at home all season as he has posted a 2.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 13 starts where he is 7-3. The Cardinals are 10-2 in his last 12 starts and he will be out for revenge after the Brewers got to him here on 8/21 for five runs in five innings, his worst home start of the season. Adrian Houser has been very solid but he has struggled on the road with a 3.98 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and he has just one quality start on the road. The Brewers are 1-4 in his last five road starts. 10* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-12-19 | Rays -152 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay lost a tough game last night as it rallied from a 7-2 deficit to take the lead only to lose it late. Both the A's and Indians gained on the Rays on Wednesday, winning while Tampa Bay 10-9 to end a six-game winning streak. With 15 games remaining on their schedule, the Rays cling to the top Wild Card spot in the American League by a half game over Oakland and one game over Cleveland. The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Texas has now won five of its last six games but four of those wins came against 47-98 Baltimore and the win last night was its first in its last nine home games against a winning team. The Rangers are 3-8 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (919) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-11-19 | Royals v. White Sox -162 | 8-6 | Loss | -162 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. This might be considered a big number for the White Sox to be laying but the situation sets up perfectly. Chicago has taken the first two games of this four-game set behind some solid pitching and we can expect that again tonight. The White Sox are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Royals had won six of their previous seven games before coming to Chicago and they are now 24-48 on the highway. They send out Glenn Sparkman for his 20th start and the previous 19 have not been good. He has a respectable 4.04 ERA at home but that balloons to an 8.95 ERA in nine road starts where Kansas City is just 1-8. Reynaldo Lopez counters for Chicago and he has been pretty solid after a horrific start to the season, especially at home. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts and has posted a 1.46 ERA over his four home starts during this stretch. 9* (972) Chicago White Sox |
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09-11-19 | Nationals -140 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Washington has lost five of its last six games to see its lead in the National League Wild Card shrink to 2.5 games over the Cubs and 3.5 games to falling out completely. Going back, the Nationals are 19-8 in their last 27 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Minnesota has been up and down of late but did win last night to keep its five-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central in place. But, the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Stephen Strasburg is the perfect pitcher to put an end to this skid as he has tossed four straight quality starts, posting a 1.67 ERA over that stretch and three of those have come on the road. Martin Perez had a great start to the season but he has struggled of late with a 6.17 ERA over his last nine starts and the Nationals have won seven of their last nine games against left-handed starters. 10* (977) Washington Nationals |
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Matt Fargo MLB Money Lines Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-20 | Rays +126 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Dodgers -160 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
10-21-20 | Rays +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 124 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
10-20-20 | Rays +161 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -148 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10-16-20 | Astros +126 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 126 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +205 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 205 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Dodgers -180 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Braves +156 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 156 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Braves +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 128 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Astros +134 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +142 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 142 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Dodgers v. Padres +160 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
10-07-20 | Padres +166 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -198 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +135 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -151 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Astros -174 v. Rangers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
09-23-20 | Cardinals -125 v. Royals | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Cardinals -110 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
09-21-20 | Astros -134 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Rangers v. Angels -134 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Twins -123 v. Cubs | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
09-18-20 | White Sox v. Reds -113 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -117 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
09-16-20 | Blue Jays +226 v. Yankees | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
09-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies +118 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 118 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
09-11-20 | Angels v. Rockies -130 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
09-09-20 | Reds +142 v. Cubs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 142 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
09-08-20 | Reds v. Cubs -101 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
09-05-20 | Rockies +175 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 175 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -143 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers -160 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -144 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -144 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
08-31-20 | White Sox v. Twins +120 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
08-30-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
08-24-20 | Reds -135 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
08-22-20 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +107 | 3-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
08-21-20 | Astros v. Padres -122 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
08-21-20 | Brewers -131 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -131 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies -125 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies +138 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees -105 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
08-17-20 | Padres -130 v. Rangers | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
08-16-20 | Padres -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
08-14-20 | Brewers +102 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians -115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
08-11-20 | Nationals -138 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
08-10-20 | White Sox -134 v. Tigers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
08-07-20 | Reds -110 v. Brewers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
08-06-20 | Reds v. Indians -115 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
08-05-20 | Twins v. Pirates +162 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
08-04-20 | White Sox +123 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 123 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
08-03-20 | Mets -123 v. Braves | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
08-02-20 | Astros v. Angels +131 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
08-01-20 | Red Sox +159 v. Yankees | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
07-31-20 | Mets v. Braves -132 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
07-30-20 | Royals -129 v. Tigers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
07-29-20 | Cubs v. Reds -109 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
07-28-20 | Padres v. Giants +135 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
07-27-20 | Cubs v. Reds +107 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
07-24-20 | Brewers v. Cubs -105 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10-30-19 | Nationals +125 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10-26-19 | Astros v. Nationals +101 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros -175 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10-22-19 | Nationals +201 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 201 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +132 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 132 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10-15-19 | Astros -144 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
10-14-19 | Cardinals +123 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -154 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -117 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves +105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +138 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10-04-19 | Nationals +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -139 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -139 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -133 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10-01-19 | Brewers +170 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-19 | Indians +134 v. Nationals | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
09-25-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -107 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
09-23-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -166 | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Giants +137 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
09-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -108 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
09-19-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -103 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
09-18-19 | Padres +137 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
09-17-19 | Reds +148 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 148 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
09-16-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 129 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Marlins v. Giants -154 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
09-13-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -124 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
09-12-19 | Rays -152 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
09-11-19 | Royals v. White Sox -162 | 8-6 | Loss | -162 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
09-11-19 | Nationals -140 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |