Jack Jones ALL Sports Picks
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-04-13||Pennsylvania +18.5 v. Villanova||54-77||Loss||-110||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE NIGHT on Pennsylvania +18.5
The Villanova Wildcats are in a huge letdown spot tonight after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis title. The Wildcats posted back-to-back dramatic wins over quality teams in Kansas and Iowa to claim the title. They now have a Top 25 ranking, and are getting patted on the back.
Sure, Villanova has won 10 straight over Big Five rival Pennsylvania, but this has been a closely-contested series in recent years. Each of the last three meetings between these teams have been decided by 13 points or less.
Pennsylvania is just 2-4 this season, but it has played a tough schedule in the early going, and it returns all five starters from last season. Three of its four losses have come by 12 points or fewer. The only blowout came at Iowa as a 25-point underdog in a 31-point loss.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (VILLANOVA) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, undefeated on the season are 30-12 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Penn is 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 points shots/game over the past three seasons. The Quakers are 10-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better since 1997. Penn is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games coming in. Take Pennsylvania Wednesday.
|12-04-13||Detroit +10 v. Toledo||Top||75-91||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
20* College Basketball GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +10
This is a classic early-season revenge spot for Detroit. After losing at home to Toledo by a final of 78-80 on November 23 as a 4-point underdog, I fully expect Detroit to give the Rockets a run for their money on the road tonight in the rematch.
Detroit has won three of its past five games overall with its two losses coming by a combined 4 points. That includes road wins at James Madison (71-67) as a 3.5-point underdog, and at South Florida (65-60) as a 9-point dog.
With an emphasis on more foul calls this season, Detroit makes for a solid team to back. That's because it is averaging 21 makes on 27 attempts per game, shooting a sensational 79.4% from the charity stripe this season.
The underdog is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these teams. The road team is 4-1 against the number in the last five meetings as well. The Titans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall. Bet Detroit Wednesday.
|12-03-13||North Texas +19.5 v. Brigham Young||67-97||Loss||-109||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on North Texas +19.5
The North Texas Mean Green get the call Tuesday night as a massive road underdog to the BYU Cougars. This line has been inflated, and we'll take advantage and back the Mean Green in what will be a closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating.
North Texas is off to a 5-3 start this season with all three of its losses coming by 13 points or less. That includes an 82-95 loss at Oklahoma as a 15.5-point underdog, which is an Oklahoma team that I believe is better than this BYU squad.
The Cougars have opened 6-2 this season, but they only have two wins by more than 11 points this year. Those came at home against their two easiest opponents in Mount St. Mary's (108-76) and Mesa College (84-60), which were games that didn't even have lines on them. Off a huge win over Utah State, and with UMass on deck, I believe this is a big letdown spot for BYU tonight.
North Texas is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or less turnovers per game. The Mean Green are 18-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the past three seasons. The Cougars are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win. BYU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|12-03-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Dallas Mavericks -8||Top||82-89||Loss||-103||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -8
The Dallas Mavericks have lost four of their last five games coming into this one. They'll clearly be motivated for a victory tonight against the Charlotte Bobcats, which is a team they have dominated throughout the years.
"We're going to learn about our team right now," coach Rick Carlisle said. "Lose four out of five, have a tough loss like last night and then another tough one like tonight - it's going to test the togetherness and the collective will."
Charlotte, meanwhile, is in a huge letdown spot off a tough 98-99 loss at the defending champion Miami Heat last time out. I look for the Bobcats to suffer a hangover from that loss because they led most of the way before having the game taken away from them down the stretch.
Dallas had gone 16-0 against Charlotte before losing in overtime on the road last November. The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 at home against the Bobcats, limiting them to just 90.4 points on 42.1 percent shooting in the process. Dallas has won all nine games by an average of 13 points per game.
The Mavericks are 8-2 at home this season where they are scoring an average of 108.5 points per game. Charlotte is scoring just 89.2 points per game overall and 89.9 points per game on the road this year. The Bobcats are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Dallas is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|12-03-13||Phoenix Suns +3.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||91-110||Loss||-107||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have no business being favored tonight against the Phoenix Suns. I fully expect the Suns to win outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.
Phoenix is the most underrated team in the league in 2013. It is off to a 9-8 start that could easily have been better. Seven of its eight losses have come by 8 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.
Memphis is expected to be without its two best players tonight. Marc Gasol (16.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) is out with a knee injury, while Zach Randolph (16.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) is listed as doubtful with a toe injury.
The loss of Randolph is huge considering he is averaging 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 57.6 percent from the field in his last 16 games versus Phoenix. Meanwhile, the Suns just recently returned Eric Bledsoe, so they are back to close to full strength.
Phoenix is 10-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS in road games this year. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing Phoenix. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.
|12-03-13||Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers -3.5||125-126||Loss||-108||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are showing tremendous value as only a 3.5-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Philadelphia will be highly motivated to end a four-game losing streak overall, which included a 94-105 loss at Orlando on November 27, so the 76ers will be out for revenge as well.
Orlando is expected to be without its best player in Nikola Vucevic, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. Vucevic is averaging 14.7 points and 10.9 rebounds per game this season and is simply irreplaceable. Not to mention both Jameer Nelson (foot) and Tobias Harris (ankle) are doubtful for the Magic as well.
Philadelphia is a respectable 5-5 at home this season, while Orlando is just 1-6 on the road. The Magic are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The 76ers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take the 76ers Tuesday.
|12-02-13||New Orleans Saints +6 v. Seattle Seahawks||Top||7-34||Loss||-115||112 h 15 m||Show|
25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6
The Saints are well-rested coming into this one. They played last Thursday in a hard-fought win at Atlanta, which is a big division rival and a solid win no matter how poor the Falcons have been this season. Getting that extra rest negates most of the advantage that the Seahawks would have had coming off their bye week. I believe the rest factor is probably a non-issue because of this.
New Orleans is playing its best football of the season heading into this contest. It is coming off three straight victories, including home wins over both the Dallas Cowboys (49-17) and San Francisco 49ers (23-20). Sure, the Saints do have two road losses, but they essentially gave both of those games away in setbacks against New England (27-30) and New York (20-26). The Patriots scored the game-winner with five seconds left, while the Jets managed to win despite getting outgained 407-338 for the game.
Looking at the numbers, it
|12-02-13||Atlanta Hawks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 197.5||100-102||Loss||-110||9 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 197.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle as each team tries to bounce back from a loss and a poor defensive performance.
You know that Greg Popovich is going to preach defense following his team's 106-112 loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday. The same can be said for the Hawks, who fell 101-108 at Washington on Saturday. Neither team is satisfied with their efforts defensively coming into this one.
That's especially the case for San Antonio, which is only giving up 91.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting this season. The Spurs rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.2 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta is a respectable 12th in defensive efficiency (101.5).
Both Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver are questionable for Atlanta heading into this one. It would be a big blow to their offense if either player is sidelined, but I'm still going to be on the UNDER regardless. That would just be an added bonus if one or both sits.
Each of the last four meetings between San Antonio and Atlanta have seen 196 or fewer combined points (196, 191, 188, 187). The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or more over the past two seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-02-13||Florida +5 v. Connecticut||64-65||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
15* Florida/UConn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida +5
I look for the Florida Gators to pull off the upset tonight at Connecticut, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Huskies are way overvalued in the early going due to their perfect 7-0 start. A closer look shows that they are very fortunate to be unbeaten right now.
In fact, three of their wins have come by a combined four points! They have beaten Maryland (78-77), Boston College (72-70) and Indiana (59-58) all on neutral courts. I believe Florida is the best team that they have played yet. The Gators' only loss came at Wisconsin (53-59).
Florida has a huge edge in rebounding in this one. The Huskies have been outrebounded in three straight games, and they're allowing an average of 14.7 offensive rebounds per game on the season, which is one of the highest marks in the country. UConn gave up 20 to Loyola-Maryland in a lackluster 76-66 home victory last time out.
The Gators began a tough stretch of games with a 67-66 win over a very good Florida State team on Friday. The Gators grabbed 20 offensive rebounds in that contest. In fact, they have outrebounded each of their last five opponents while averaging 14.0 offensive boards during that stretch.
Connecticut is 0-9 against the spread after four or more consecutive wins over the past three seasons. This trend just goes to show you how overvalued the Huskies have been once they start to see some success, which is certainly the case here. Take Florida Monday.
|12-01-13||Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||103-113||Loss||-110||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9
This is a huge letdown spot for Oklahoma City, which is coming off its overtime victory over the Golden State Warriors on Friday. Russell Westbrook nailed a 3-pointer with 0.1 seconds left in the extra session to beat the Warriors. Off such a big, thrilling win, I look for the Thunder to come back unmotivated today.
Motivation will not be problem for the Timberwolves, who have lost five of their last seven coming in. This is a business trip for Minnesota, which won at Dallas last night by a final of 112-106. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see this team pull off the upset tonight as well, but I'll take the points for some insurance.
Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996. It is coming back to lose 100.0 to 102.6 in this spot. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|12-01-13||St. Louis Rams +9 v. San Francisco 49ers||13-23||Loss||-110||84 h 40 m||Show|
15* Rams/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis +9
The Rams have fought back to put themselves in position to pull within one game of the 49ers for the 6th and final wild card spot in the NFC. You know they will be laying it all on the field Sunday with their season essentially on the line in this one. That
|12-01-13||Tennessee Titans +4.5 v. Indianapolis Colts||14-22||Loss||-110||81 h 36 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5
If the season were to end today, the Tennessee Titans would be in the playoffs. They clearly have a lot to play for the rest of the way, and would love nothing more than to pull within one game of Indianapolis for first place in the AFC South. That
|12-01-13||Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Cleveland Browns||Top||32-28||Win||100||81 h 35 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7
The Jaguars are playing their best football of the season of late. They have also played their best football on the road this year. They are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread in their last two road games, beating Tennessee (29-27) as an 11.5-point underdog, while also topping Houston (13-6) outright as a 10.5-point dog. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, and as a result their lines have been inflated.
Asking the Browns to lay a touchdown to any team is asking a lot. That
|12-01-13||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 v. Carolina Panthers||Top||6-27||Loss||-108||81 h 35 m||Show|
25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
This is a great spot to fade the Carolina Panthers. They overcame a double-digit deficit last week in a big letdown spot against the Dolphins to win by a final of 20-16. If they would have lost that game, they would have come back focused.
Now, I fully expect them to have a mental lapse this week considering they have their biggest game of the season on deck next week against the New Orleans Saints. They will be overlooking the Buccaneers in this one, allowing Tampa to not only stay within the spread, but likely win this game outright.
Overlooking the Bucs has been a trend for every team they have faced over the past three weeks. They have rolled off three straight victories over the Dolphins (22-19), Falcons (41-28) and Lions (24-21). However, their solid play started a week before this winning streak started in a 24-27 overtime loss at Seattle as a 16-point underdog.
Tampa Bay might be the most underrated team in the league right now. Its 0-8 start was an absolute fluke as it found a way to lose several close games, including setbacks against the Jets (17-18), Saints (14-16) and Cardinals (10-13). Five of its eight losses this season have come by 8 points or less.
The biggest reason for the Bucs turnaround has been the play of quarterback Mike Glennon, who is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. In his last six starts, Glennon has thrown nine touchdowns against only one interception. His only poor start came back in his first start of the season in Week 4 against the Cardinals.
Carolina only averages 317.9 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total offense. It relies heavily on its running game, which ranks 9th in the league at 126.3 yards per game. Well, the Bucs have the perfect antidote, boasting a run defense that ranks 9th in the league at 101.6 yards per game. The key to slowing down the Panthers is stopping their running game, and the Bucs have the personnel to do it, especially with the likely return of linebacker Mason Foster (shoulder) this week.
Having already beaten the Bucs earlier this season in their first meeting, and with the Saints on deck, it's only human nature for the Panthers to not bring their full focus to the field Sunday. This team was way undervalued midseason due to a slow start, but after seven straight victories, the Panthers are now overrated, and that is reflected in this line. We'll take advantage.
The Buccaneers are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games following a win. Tampa Bay is 6-1 against the number in its last seven games vs. at team with a winning record, time and time again stepping up its game when playing what is perceived to be a superior team. The Buccaneers are also 19-7 against the number in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa Bay is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 road games overall. Take the Buccaneers Sunday.
|12-01-13||Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets -121||23-3||Loss||-121||81 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets Money Line (-121)
The Jets will certainly be motivated for a win Sunday following back-to-back blowout road losses where they simply gave the games away by committing a combined seven turnovers. The good news is that the Jets are still tied for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC, so they still have a ton to play for. Even better news is the fact that they will be returning home, which is where they have clearly played their best football of the season.
Indeed, New York is 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this season. It has beaten some very good teams at home, too. The Jets beat the New England Patriots by a final of 30-27 at MetLife Stadium back on October 20. They also knocked off the New Orleans Saints at home by a final of 26-20 on November 3. With how well they have played at home, getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly be a gift from oddsmakers.
Both teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but there
|12-01-13||Wichita State +2 v. St. Louis||70-65||Win||100||3 h 22 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wichita State +2
I would be surprised to see Wichita State as an underdog the rest of the year. This is a team that went to the Final Four last season, and somehow they're getting overlooked in 2013-14. I'll take advantage and back the Shockers as a dog here.
The Shockers have opened 7-0 this season with seven straight victories by double-digits. That includes a 77-54 road win at Tulsa, and victories over both Depaul (90-72) and BYU (74-62) on neutral courts.
Saint Louis is a quality team that returns similar talent to Wichita State from last year, but this team is obviously way overvalued in the early going. It has opened 6-1 this season with a loss to Wisconsin. I would argue that the Billikens don't have a good win yet.
The Shockers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Shockers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Wichita State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Take Wichita State Sunday.
|11-30-13||Villanova v. Iowa -2||88-83||Loss||-110||11 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -2
The Iowa Hawkeyes are off to a 7-0 start this season with five of those victories coming by 31 or more points. This is one of the deepest teams in the country that can handle playing three games in three days because of it.
The Hawkeyes have 10 players averaging more than 15 minutes per game. All ten of those players are averaging at least 4.6 points per contest, and all five starters are back from last year. This team is ranked in the Top 25 for a reason and will only continue to climb after beating Villanova Saturday.
The Wildcats are coming off a huge win over Kansas yesterday, and even though this is the championship game in the Battle 4 Atlantic, I look for them to suffer a letdown off such a big win.
The Hawkeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Iowa is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a win. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|11-30-13||UCLA v. USC -3||Top||35-14||Loss||-110||62 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -3
The USC Trojans have been revived under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. They have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread with Oregeron at the helm with their only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. They have beaten some very good teams along the way, topping Arizona (38-31), Utah (19-3) and Stanford (20-17) at home, while also going on the road and knocking off Oregon State (31-14). No team in the country wants to play this team right now.
While the Trojans come into this game with a ton of momentum, the Bruins will be in a tough state of mind following their 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last week. That game was essentially for the Pac-12 South Title, and I foresee UCLA suffering a hangover this week because of it. I also expect that USC will be motivated to avenge last year
|11-30-13||Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 182||93-97||Loss||-110||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Cavaliers UNDER 182
The Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. I look for a similar combined score to the 96-81 victory Chicago handed Cleveland in their first meeting of the season, when Derrick Rose was healthy.
The Bulls have been atrocious offensively without Rose, scoring just 82, 83 and 99 points in their last three games overall. They are also without Jimmy Butler, which gets overlooked because of his ability to stretch the floor and break down a defense from time to time.
Both Cleveland and Chicago like to slow down the tempo. The Bulls rank 23rd int he league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Cavs are 14th at 97.3 possessions per game. Cleveland is 28th in offensive efficiency at 92.6 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago is 26th at 96.0 points per 100 possessions.
Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Cavaliers last eight home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-30-13||Notre Dame +16 v. Stanford||20-27||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Stanford Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +16
This is an awfully big number for a rivalry game like this one. That
|11-30-13||Boston College v. Syracuse +3||Top||31-34||Win||100||17 h 58 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +3
The Syracuse Orange have plenty of reason to be motivated for a win at home Saturday. First, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Secondly, this is Senior Day, so they want to send their seniors out with a victory in their final home game.
Boston College is one of the most overrated teams in the country, and it should not be favored here. It is 7-4 on the season but nowhere near as good as its record. The Eagles rank 89th in the country in total offense at 370.4 yards per game, and 76th in total defense at 417.1 yards per game. As you can see, they are getting outgained by roughly 47 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team with a losing record than one that is 7-4.
The biggest strength of Boston College is its running game, which averaged 221 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. The biggest strength of the Syracuse defense is its ability to stop the run. The Orange rank 27th in the country against the run, giving up just 133.5 yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.
Syracuse is 3-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents 29.8 to 16.6, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. Boston College is just 2-3 on the road this year, getting outscored 21.6 to 30.6, or by an average of 9.0 points per game. Its only wins came at Maryland (29-26) as a 2-point favorite and at New Mexico State (48-34) as a 25-point favorite.
The Orange are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21 home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston College is 2-9 against the number in its last 11 road games. Syracuse is 7-2-1 against the number in its last 10 home games. Roll with Syracuse Saturday.
|11-30-13||Penn State +24.5 v. Wisconsin||31-24||Win||100||17 h 57 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Wisconsin ESPN No-Brainer on Penn State +24.5
The Wisconsin Badgers were undervalued all season up to this point. As a result, they have gone 9-1-1 against the spread in their 11 games this season. The betting public has jumped all over this team because of it, and now their numbers have been inflated over the past two weeks.
Wisconsin was overvalued as a 15.5-point favorite at Minnesota last week, winning by a final of 20-7 to miss the cover. Now, it is certainly overvalued again as a 24.5-point favorite against a quality Penn State team that will give it a run for its money.
Remember, Penn State was only a 15-point underdog at Ohio State on October 26. Now, oddsmakers are giving the Nittany Lions nearly 10 more points against Wisconsin, which lost to Ohio State. That fact alone shows you how there is a ton of value in backing the Nittany Lions in this game Saturday.
The key to stopping Wisconsin is stopping its running game. The 11 opponents that Penn State has faced this season average 179 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. The Nittany Lions have held those 11 opponents to well below their season average, yielding just 146 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. That shows you that Penn State is solid against the run.
Last year, Penn State beat Wisconsin by a final of 24-21 as a 1-point home favorite. It held the Badgers to just 158 rushing yards on 43 carries in the win, giving up a mere 3.7 yards per carry in the win. I don't believe there is that much difference between these teams from last year to this year, so there's no way the Badgers should be laying 24.5 points in the rematch.
Plays on road underdogs (PENN ST) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-9 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. They have not lost two straight games this season, bouncing back from each of their first four losses with a victory in their next game. Take Penn State Saturday.
|11-30-13||Temple +9 v. Memphis||41-21||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +9
The Temple Owls are vastly underrated due to their 1-10 record right now. I have no doubt this is much better than a 1-10 team, and they have proven it in the second half of the season by playing several very good teams close.
Since a 33-14 home win over Army on October 14, the Owls have lost each of their last four games by 10 points or fewer. They fell on the road to SMU (49-59) as a 14-point dog and at Rutgers (20-23) as an 11.5-point dog. They also lost at home to UCF (36-39) as a 17.5-point dog, and against UConn (21-28) as a 6-point favorite. They obviously should not have lost to the Huskies, outgaining them 372-235 for the game, but their three turnovers gave that game away.
The reason for the improvement of this team has been quarterback P.J. Walker, who has been an absolute playmaker for this offense since being inserted into the starting role against Louisville. Walker has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,756 yards with 16 touchdowns against seven interceptions, while also rushing for 273 yards and three scores. His dual-threat ability adds a dimension to this offense that it did not have before. The Owls are 6-1 ATS with Walker as their starter.
Memphis has no business being more than a touchdown favorite here. While it has some solid performances against good teams like Temple does, the fact of the matter is that its only three wins this season have come against Arkansas State, Tennessee-Martin and South Florida. Off a heartbreaking loss to Louisville last week by a touchdown, the Tigers could easily suffer a hangover effect this week, which was similar to what Temple suffered last week in a loss to UConn after falling to UCF by a field goal the previous week.
Temple is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games following two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts. The Owls are 7-1 against the number as an underdog this season. Memphis is 5-11 against the spread in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Temple Saturday.
|11-29-13||San Diego St v. Creighton -4||86-80||Loss||-115||11 h 52 m||Show|
15* SDSU/Creighton CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -4
The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters from last season and are one of the best players on the country. That includes Doug McDermott (23.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg), who is off to another monster start and may be the best players in all of college basketball. McDermott is averaging 27.4 points and 7.6 boards while leading the Bluejays to a perfect 5-0 start this season.
He is getting plenty of help, too. Devin Brooks (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.2 ppg) and Austin Chatman (9.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5.4 apg) have fit in with McDermott nicely. The Bluejays have shot 51.5% or better in all five games this season, which is impressive considering they have faced three very good opponents. They beat both St. Joseph's (73-69) and Arizona State (88-60) on the road, as well as Tulsa (82-72) at home. They are shooting 53.5% from the field on the season.
San Diego State lost four of its top six scorers from last season, including leading scorers Jamaal Franklin (17.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Chase Tapley (13.5 ppg). The Aztecs only bring back Xavier Thames (9.5 ppg), J.J. O'Brien (7.2 ppg) and Winston Shepard (5.7) as players of relevance. They have played an extremely soft schedule outside of Arizona, who they lost to by a final of 60-69 at home as a 3.5-point underdog.
Plays on neutral court teams (CREIGHTON) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 35-8 (81.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. San Diego State is only hitting 63.0% of its free throws this year, which is a big factor given the emphasis on fouls.
The Aztecs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. San Diego State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Big East opponents. The Bluejays are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Creighton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Bet Creighton Friday.
|11-29-13||South Florida +27 v. Central Florida||20-23||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
15* South Florida/UCF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +27
The Central Florida Knights are way overvalued right now due to their 9-1 start. The betting public has been all over them of late, which has inflated this number. At 2-8 on the season, the South Florida Bulls come into this game undervalued. I look for this to be a much closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating Friday night.
While South Florida has lost four straight coming in, I've seen enough from this team against quality competition to know that the Bulls can hang tough in this one. They beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home despite being a 10.5-point underdog. They also went on the road and only lost 23-35 at Houston, throwing for 311 yards in the loss. That's the same Houston team that nearly beat UCF, losing 14-19 on the road.
South Florida has really turned up its pressure defensively the past two weeks, limiting Memphis to just 242 total yards, and SMU to a mere 280 total yards. The Bulls rank 29th in the country in total defense at 355.8 yards per game allowed. UCF will have a hard time scoring 27 points, let alone winning by 27.
The Knights have played in several close games this year and are really fortunate to be 9-1 right now. Six of their 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, but they've gone 5-1 in those contests. That includes victories over lowly Memphis (24-17) and Temple (39-36). If Memphis (3-7) and Temple (1-10) can compete with UCF, then South Florida can, too.
Plays on a road team (S FLORIDA) - after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. UCF is 0-6 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the past two seasons. The Knights are 2-10 against the number off a home win over the last three years. Roll with South Florida Friday.
|11-29-13||Washington Wizards +10.5 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||73-93||Loss||-110||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10.5
The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-1 start. There's no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but they have taken advantage of a very easy schedule thus far, and should not be laying double-digits to Washington tonight.
Indiana has only faced one team this season that currently has a winning record, and that was Memphis (8-7). With with biggest game of the season against the Los Angeles Clippers on deck, this could certainly be a lookahead spot for the Pacers.
Quietly, the Washington Wizards have won three straight and five of their last six games overall heading into this one. They are undervalued right now due to a poor start to the season, with road losses to the likes of the Heat, Thunder, Mavericks and Spurs, who are four of the best teams in the NBA. There's no question that Washington is better than its 7-8 record would indicate, while Indiana is nowhere near as good as its 14-1 mark.
These teams met four times last season with Indiana winning three of them by 4, 7 and 8 points. Washington won the other by a final of 104-85 at home as a 4-point dog in their final meeting of the season, which is when John Wall was actually healthy, and he led the way with 37 points. Wall miss the other three meetings, and the Wizards still hung tough and lost all three by 8 points or fewer.
Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Wizards are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Wizards Friday.
|11-29-13||Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 202||87-88||Loss||-105||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Mavericks OVER 202
The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks tonight. I'll take advantage by backing the OVER in what I believe will be an absolute shootout with each team topping the 100-point mark.
The reason this total has been set so low is because both Dallas and Atlanta have been going UNDER the total a lot recently. In fact, The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavs last four games overall, while the UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last seven. However, these recent trends have provided us with a ton of value to back the OVER.
Dallas beat Atlanta by a final of 118-109 in the season opener for 227 combined points. I expect a similar result tonight. The OVER is now 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. In the last three meetings, they have combined for 227, 240 and 206 points, respectively.
Both teams like to push the tempo, which will create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair tonight. Dallas ranks 7th in the league in pace at 99.4 possessions per game, while Atlanta ranks 11th in pace at 98.2 possessions per contest. The Mavericks are also 5th in the league in offensive efficiency at 106.2 points per 100 possessions, while Atlanta is 15th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.
Dallas is 27-10 to the OVER in road games after four or more consecutive unders since 1996. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Mavericks last 26 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The OVER is 21-9 in Hawks last 30 Friday games. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-29-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189||86-103||Push||0||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavaliers/Celtics UNDER 189
The books have set the number way too high in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as do not expect either team to reach 95 points in this one, which is what it would take to go over the total.
These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as the Cavs are scoring 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, while the Celtics are scoring 92.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting. Neither team really like to push the tempo, either.
Both ranks in the middle of the pack in pace as Cleveland is 15th at 97.0 possessions per game, while Boston is 18th at 96.6 possessions per game. The key here is that neither team has been able to do much with those possessions. Cleveland ranks 27th in offensive efficiency at 93.4 points per 100 possessions, while Boston is 26th at 95.6 points per 100 possessions.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 188, 185 and 185 points. In fact, the Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 188 or less points in six of their last seven meetings overall.
Boston is 19-6 to the UNDER vs. poor passing teams who average 20 or less assists per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine Friday games. The UNDER is 12-2 in Cavaliers last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The UNDER is 21-8 in Cavs last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 8-1 in Celtics last nine vs. NBA Central Division foes. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-29-13||Fresno State -7.5 v. San Jose State||Top||52-62||Loss||-110||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -7.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are fighting for a BCS bowl. Not only do they need to continue to win, but they need to do so impressively. A blowout road victory against a quality San Jose State team would certainly help their cause. Winning by big margins has been no problem for the Bulldogs all season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 19.8 points per game on the season. They have been at their best on the road, outscoring foes by 24.3 points per game away from home.
Fresno State boasts an offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 575.6 total yards per game, including 46.8 points per game. Quarterback Derek Carr deserves serious Heisman Trophy consideration. The senior is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,948 yards with 39 touchdowns against four interceptions. Carr and company should have their way with a San Jose State stop unit that is giving up 33.5 points and 442.3 yards per game to rank 98th in the country in total defense.
San Jose State has certainly taken a step back from last season. They are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to become bowl eligible, losing each of their last three games while going 0-3 against the spread in the process. That includes home losses to San Diego State (30-34) and Navy (52-58), as well as a blowout road loss at Nevada (16-38). That setback against Nevada was the fourth blowout loss suffered by the Trojans this season. They were also beaten by Stanford (13-34), Minnesota (24-43) and Utah State (12-40).
Fresno State is 15-2 straight up in its last 17 meetings with San Jose State. Plays against any team (SAN JOSE ST)
|11-29-13||Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +3||41-31||Loss||-115||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* Miami/Pittsburgh ABC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3
The Pittsburgh Panthers have played their best football of the season over the past three weeks coming in. They have picked up a home win over Notre Dame (28-21) as well as a road win at Syracuse (17-16). They did lose to North Carolina (27-34), but few teams in the country are playing as well as the Tar Heels right now. This is a team that will be really motivated to put an end to Miami
|11-28-13||Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||20-22||Win||100||25 h 24 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Ravens Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on Pittsburgh +3
The Steelers are playing their best football of the season over the past three weeks to get right back into the thick if the playoff race in the AFC. They have won three straight and five of their last seven games overall to get to 5-6 on the season and tied with several teams for the 6th and final Wild Card spot in the conference.
All three of their wins during this streak have come by double-digits with home victories over Buffalo (23-10) and Detroit (37-27), as well as a road win at Cleveland (27-11). The Steelers are playing mistake-free football now unlike they were at the beginning of the year, turning the ball over just once int heir last three contests.
Ben Roethlisberger has really stepped of his game of late. The veteran has thrown for an average of 297.0 yards per game with 11 touchdowns against three interceptions in his last four games overall. Antonio Brown is one of the top receivers in the game, catching 80 balls for 1,044 yards and six touchdowns.
While the Steelers have been very impressive offensively of late, the Ravens have taken a big step back on that side of the ball this year. They rank 29th in the league in total offense at 308.8 yards per game. They
|11-28-13||Xavier v. Iowa -4.5||74-77||Loss||-100||14 h 56 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They returned all five starters from last year, and they are one of the deepest teams in the land. I look for them to blow out Xavier tonight in Round 1 of the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes are deep. They have 10 players who are averaging 15 or more minutes per game. A big reason for that is that they have been blowing out the opposition in the early going, but they aren't afraid to go 10 deep against good teams, too. Iowa has outscored its first five opponents 92.6 to 54.6, or by an average of 38.0 points per game en route to a 5-0 start.
Ten players are also averaging 5.0 points per game or more this season. Leading the way has been Roy-Devyn Marble (14.6 ppg, 3.8 apg, 3.2 spg), Aaron White (13.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg), Jarrod Uthoff (11.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Peter Jok (9.4 ppg), Zach McCabe (7.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Melsahn Basabe (7.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg). This is certainly a team you will see in the NCAA Tournament down the road, and one that is a sleeper to win the Big Ten.
Xavier brings back a quality squad as well with three starters returning. I like what I've seen from the Musketeers thus far, but their 5-0 start has come against some very soft competition as well, and they haven't been nearly as dominant as Iowa. They only beat a mediocre Tennessee team by a final of 67-63 at home on November 12.
The one stat that really stood out to me when researching this game was the free throw shooting for both teams. With an emphasis on calling more fouls this season, free throw shooting is at a premium. Iowa is getting to the line 36 times per game, converting on 74.2% of its opportunities in the process. Xavier is getting to the line 28 times per game, but making a woeful 59.9% of them.
In a game that is expected to be close according to oddsmakers, free throw shooting could easily be the difference as to why the Hawkeyes cover this one, even though I fully expect them to win via blowout.
Iowa is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more straight games coming in. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite. The Hawkeyes are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. These three trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Thursday.
|11-28-13||Oakland Raiders +9 v. Dallas Cowboys||24-31||Win||100||21 h 24 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Cowboys Mid-Afternoon FEAST on Oakland +9
Believe it or not, the Raiders are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They only trail the Tennessee Titans (5-6) by one game for the sixth seed. Sure, they will probably have to almost win out to make it, but they aren
|11-28-13||Green Bay Packers +7 v. Detroit Lions||10-40||Loss||-115||17 h 24 m||Show|
15* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +7
|11-27-13||Syracuse -4 v. Baylor||74-67||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Syracuse ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Syracuse -4
The Orange have really impressed me in the early going en route to a perfect 6-0 start this season. Their wins over two very good teams in Minnesota (75-67) and California (92-81) to open the Maui Invitational really show that Jim Boeheim has another great squad at Syracuse this season.
C.J. Fair (17.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Jerami Grant (13.2 ppg, 7.2 ppg) have really stepped up their games as key returnees from last season. Freshman Tyler Ennis (11.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.7 spg) has done a tremendous job of running the offense. Trevor Cooney (14.8 ppg, 48.8% 3-pointers) has proven to be the next great sharpshooter for the Orange.
Baylor has been unimpressive to me thus far. It barely escaped with home victories over South Carolina (66-64) and Charleston Southern (69-64) before heading to the Maui Invitational. I believe the loss of leading scorer Pierre Jackson (19.8 ppg), 7.1 apg) has really taken its toll on this squad. The Bears were fortunate to escape with a 67-66 victory over Dayton last night as well.
The Orange are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Syracuse is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. Big 12 opponents. Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. ACC foes. Take Syracuse Wednesday.
|11-27-13||Denver Nuggets v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 211.5||117-110||Win||100||16 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 211.5
I look for a shootout tonight between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. That was certainly the case when these teams got together for the first time this season on November 15. Denver beat Minnesota 117-113 for a combined score of 230, which is roughly 19 points more than tonight's posted total of 211.5.
In that first meeting, both teams ignored the shot clock and simply got the ball up as quickly as they could. Minnesota hoisted up a ridiculous 97 shots, while Denver wasn't far behind with 94 shots. There wasn't much defense being played, either, as both teams got good looks. The Timberwolves shot 48.9% from the floor, while the Nuggets shot 48.5%.
The reason I expect a similar result tonight is because both teams play at very fast paces. In fact, the Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league in pace at 101.9 possessions per game, while the Nuggets are a close 3rd in pace at 100.9 possession per contest. When you get two teams that like to play at fast paces together, it creates a perfect storm, making for a great opportunity to back the OVER.
Denver is 33-16 to the OVER as a road underdog over the past three seasons. The OVER is 16-7-1 in Nuggets last 24 road games overall. The OVER is 35-15-2 in Nuggets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The OVER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams played in Minnesota. We have seen combined scores of 213, 195, 233 and 217 points in the last four meetings in Minnesota. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-27-13||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5||Top||88-94||Win||100||16 h 1 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Thunder Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to their 11-game winning streak coming into this one. A closer look at the streak shows that it has come against soft competition.
Only two of the 11 wins have come against teams with winning records, and those were against Denver (7-6) and Golden State (9-6). The game against the Nuggets was the first game of the steak back when Denver was really struggling early in the year. The win over the Warriors game by a final of 76-74 when Golden State was playing without its best player in Stephen Curry.
Oklahoma City has been a much tougher team since the return of Russell Westbrook. It has won eight of its past 10 games overall with its only losses coming on the road against the Clippers (103-111) and Warriors (115-116). Now, Westbrook has had five days off after sitting out the Thunder's 95-73 home win over Utah on November 24 in their last game. Coach Mark Brooks picked a perfect spot to give his knee some rest, and he'll be ready to go tonight because of it.
Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Spurs and Thunder. The home team has won 13 of the past 15 meetings in this series. The Thunder are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with San Antonio, winning all five games by 6 points or more. Take Oklahoma City Wednesday.
|11-27-13||Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +9||95-84||Loss||-105||16 h 31 m||Show|
15* Heat/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Cleveland +9
The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing tremendous value as a big home underdog to the Miami Heat Wednesday night. They have had three full days off since their ugly 96-126 loss at San Antonio, which is a defeat that is stuck in the betting public's minds, which is also why this line has been inflated.
Another reason for the inflation is the fact that Miami enters this contest on a 7-game winning streak. A closer look at the streak shows that the Heat have only beaten two teams with winning records during this run. Miami has a way of playing down to its competition, and that has certainly been the case when meeting up with the Cavaliers of late.
In fact, all four meetings between the Cavaliers and Heat last season were decided by 4 points or less. Miami won 110-108 and 109-105 at home, as well as 98-95 and 96-95 on the road. After coming so close to beating the Heat last season, you can bet the Cavaliers are hungry to get over the hump pull off the upset in their first meeting of the 2013-14 campaign.
Plays against favorites (MIAMI) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when laying on three or more days of rest. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|11-27-13||Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 v. Orlando Magic||Top||94-105||Loss||-110||15 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are in a great spot tonight. They come in on three days' rest, so they'll certainly be ready to go having last played on Saturday. They'll be up against an Orlando team that will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.
The 76ers have been underrated all season. They have opened the season 6-9 straight up and 9-6 against the spread, sporting one of the league's top scoring offenses at 103.7 points per game. Evan Turner (21.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Michael Carter-Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.4 apg, 5.7 rpg, 3.0 spg) and Spencer Hawes (16.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg) lead six 76ers who are averaging in double figures scoring this season.
Orlando is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after its upset victory over Atlanta last night. That certainly sets the Magic up for a letdown spot here, and playing their 4th game in 5 days, they certainly won't be able to match the intensity level of the 76ers, who love to push the tempo. In fact, Philadelphia ranks 1st in the league in pace, and it will wear down Orlando tonight.
I'm not a huge trends guy, but one of the best ones I have come across all season is that Jacque Vaughn is 1-14 against the spread as a favorite as the coach of Orlando. This team cannot be trusted in the role of the favorite, especially in such a tough situation like tonight's spot. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|11-26-13||Brigham Young v. Wichita State -3||Top||62-75||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
20* BYU/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Wichita State -3
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Wichita State as such a small favorite the rest of the season. I'm going to take full advantage tonight and back them in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic Final in Kansas City, MO tonight against BYU.
Remember, this is a Wichita State team that made it to the FInal Four last year before bowing out to eventual champion Louisville by a final of 72-68. The Shockers returned plenty of talent from that team to make another run in 2013. Cleanthony Early (13.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Ron Baker (8.7 ppg) and Tekele Cotton (6.5 ppg) all return, as do several other key role players.
Wichita State has opened 6-0 this season and has yet to be tested. All six of its wins have come by 14 points or more, including a 77-54 road win over Tulsa as a 6-point favorite, and a 90-72 victory over DePaul last night as an 8-point favorite. Early (14.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Baker (14.0 ppg, 3.8 apg) and Cotton (11.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have all stepped up their games this season. Also, returnee Fred VanVleet (13.2 ppg, 5.8 apg) has done a tremendous job of running the offense at point guard.
BYU is a talented team, but it is nowhere near as good as the Shockers this season. The Cougars caught Iowa State in a huge letdown spot off a big win over Michigan previously, and they couldn't get the job done at home, falling 88-90. They also struggled as a 7-point favorite against Texas last night, winning by a final of 86-82. The Longhorns are certainly down this season, so that win was far from impressive.
Wichita State is 12-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots per game since 1997. BYU is 1-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less since 1997. The Shockers are 17-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less since 1997. Bet Wichita State Tuesday.
|11-26-13||Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 204||Top||102-101||Loss||-110||8 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Pelicans OVER 204
The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans. I look for a shootout between these teams given the circumstances tonight.
Golden State will be without its two best defenders in center Andrew Bogut and small forward Andre Iguodala. I fully expect the Pelicans to take advantage and put up a big number offensively in this one.
The Pelicans have been playing in several high-scoring games since getting back stretch big man Ryan Anderson, who is second on the team in scoring (18.8 ppg). They feature six players who are averaging double-digits in points this season and will be a force to be wreckoned with offensively now that Anderson is back.
In fact, the Pelicans are averaging 108.4 points per game and giving up 103.8 points per game in their last five contests overall. They are combining with their opponents for an average of 212.2 points per game during this stretch.
Both teams like to go up-tempo. Golden State ranks 9th in the league in pace at 99.0 possessions per game, while New Orleans is 13th in the league in pace at 97.3 possessions per contest. I look for that pace to be increased even more now that the Warriors are without their top two defenders in Iguodala and Bogut.
New Orleans is 14-3 to the OVER when playing four or less games in 10 days over the past three seasons. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games when playing on two days' rest. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in New Orleans. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-26-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 191||102-100||Loss||-110||6 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191
The Brooklyn Nets are in a world of hurt right now offensively. They are without two of their best players in Brook Lopez and Deron Williams, which will make points very hard to come by until they return. The Nets are already only averaging 95.4 points per game overall and 93.6 on the road. In their last three games, the Nets are only averaging 89.7 ppg.
Both Toronto and Brooklyn like to play at slow paces. Toronto ranks 25th in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game, while Brooklyn is 21st in pace at 96.0 possessions per contest. I look for the Raptors to control the pace in this one playing at home and keep is at a snail's pace.
That has been the case in recent meetings between the Nets and Raptors played in Toronto. They have combined for 180, 182, 165, and 182 points in their last four meetings in Toronto, all of which have gone UNDER the total. That's an average of 177.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. The UNDER is 25-9 in Nets last 34 games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 24-11 in Raptors last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 15-2 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the past three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-26-13||Oakland +7.5 v. Western Michigan||88-99||Loss||-110||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland +7.5
You would be hard-pressed to find a team that has played a more difficult schedule in the early going than Oakland. They opened the season with four straight road games against North Carolina (61-84), UCLA (60-91), California (60-64) and Gonzaga (67-82). They have also played LA-Lafayette (75-84) and St. Francis-NY (62-68) on a neutral court. They have been an underdog in all six contests, and they have opened 0-6.
Due to this 0-6 start, the Grizzlies are way undervalued right now. This is a team that returned four starters from last year and will be improved as the season progresses and the schedule gets easier. Travis Bader (22.1 ppg last year) and Duke Mondy (12.0 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.0 spg) are back to lead the way. Bader (21.5 ppg) is off to a fast start, while Corey Petros (10.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Tommie McCune (9.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Kahlil Fielder (8.7 ppg, 5.2 apg) have all stepped up their games this season.
Western Michigan is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. It has opened 3-2 this season with its only wins coming against New Mexico State (70-64), Tennessee State (63-52) and Alabama A&M (73-69). It also has losses to North Dakota State (74-83) and Hawaii (68-78). As you can see, the Broncos only have one win on the season by more than 6 points.
This is a Broncos squad that lost three of their top five scorers from a year ago in Darius Paul (10.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Nate Hutcheson (10.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Brandon Pokley (8.9 ppg), who averaged nearly 30 points combined between them. Shayne Whittington and David Brown are solid players, but they are being asked to do too much. This team doesn't have near the balance that Oakland offers.
Oakland is 17-6 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in three days since 1997. The Grizzlies are 23-10 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997. The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Oakland Tuesday.
|11-26-13||Western Michigan +36.5 v. Northern Illinois||14-33||Win||100||7 h 52 m||Show|
15* WMU/NIU MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +36.5
The betting public has been all over Northern Illinois this season, especially over the last several weeks. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-10 Western Michigan squad. When oddsmakers realize this, they are forced to set a number higher than it should be to try and get even money on both sides. There
|11-25-13||Stanford v. Houston +11.5||86-76||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Houston +11.5
The Houston Cougars returned three starters and three of their top four scorers from a team that went 20-13 last season. They are TaShawn Thomas (16.9 ppg, 9.8 rpg), Danuel House (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Jherrod Stiggers (8.1 ppg).
All three players have made a significant contribution en route to a perfect 5-0 start this season for the Cougars. House (17.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Thomas (16.8 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 4.6 bpg) and Stiggers (10.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) have all upped their games in 2013. Plus, Baylor transfer L.J. Rose (12.2 ppg, 5.6 apg) has made an imprint as well.
Stanford returned a ton of experience from last season, but that's not necessarily a great thing for a team that went just 19-15 last year and missed the NCAA Tournament. In its only real test this season, Stanford failed, losing 103-112 at home to BYU. While the Cougars haven't really been tested yet, four of their five victories have come by double-digits.
The Cougars are scoring 77.6 points per game and shooting 49.3% from the field, while limiting opponents to 65.0 points and 39.7% shooting. The Cougars are a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the past three seasons. The Cardinal are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. Roll with Houston Friday.
|11-25-13||San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +6||Top||27-6||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Redskins put together a big run at the end of last season by winning their final seven games to capture the NFC East Title. With the division as wide open as ever, they still have to feel like they have a shot with another big finish in 2013. They only trail the Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 games for first place within the division.
Washington has fallen victim to a pretty tough schedule thus far as six of its first 10 games have been on the road. It is 2-2 at home with its only losses coming to the Eagles and Lions by a combined 13 points. It has played well in its last two home games, beating both Chicago (45-41) and San Diego (30-24). San Francisco
|11-25-13||New Orleans Pelicans +10 v. San Antonio Spurs||93-112||Loss||-106||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +10
The San Antonio Spurs are getting too much respect from the books tonight due to their 12-1 start, which includes a 126-96 home victory over Cleveland last time out. The public perception of this team is as high as it's going to get this season, and now is the time to fade the Spurs because of it.
New Orleans still has a pretty low public perception due to its mediocre 6-6 record on the season. However, it has been playing its best basketball of late, winning three straight coming into this one. A big reason for the Pelicans' resurgence has been the return of stretch big man Ryan Anderson, who is averaging 19.3 points and shooting 61.9% from 3-points range in his past three contests. Now, they will be playing on two days' rest since their 104-100 victory over Cleveland on Friday.
This is a big lookahead spot for San Antonio, which will travel to face Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Overlooking the Pelicans has been nothing new for the Spurs as this has been a very closely-contested series. All four meetings between the Spurs and Pelicans last year were decided by 7 points or less with New Orleans going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost 102-106 and 94-99 in their two trips to San Antonio last season, and they were nowhere near as talented last year as they are in 2013-14.
Plays against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting <=21 free throws/game, in November games are 73-27 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|11-25-13||Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5||Top||110-96||Loss||-108||8 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5
This is a home-and-home situation between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. After losing in Denver 100-102 on Saturday, I fully expect the Mavericks to get their revenge in blowout fashion at home tonight.
Dallas is a perfect 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 111.4 to 102.0 at home this season, or by an average of 9.4 points per game. Denver is 1-4 on the road this year, giving up 104.4 points per contest away from home.
The Nuggets are 24-47 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game since 1996. The Mavericks are 26-10 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game over the past two seasons.
Dallas is 10-1 ATS after allowing 60 or more points in the first half of last game over the past two seasons. The Mavericks are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games following a loss. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the Mavericks Monday.
|11-25-13||Phoenix Suns +12 v. Miami Heat||92-107||Loss||-103||7 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12
The Phoenix Suns are the most underrated team in the entire league. This is just another prime example of that as the Suns are catching double-digits against the Miami Heat, who are notorious for playing to the level of their competition. I have no doubt Miami will take Phoenix too lightly tonight, just as about every other team in the league has this season.
Phoenix is 7-6 this season and has been competitive in almost all of its losses. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 7 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer. That includes impressive road losses at Oklahoma City (96-103), San Antonio (96-99) and Portland (89-90), which are three of the best teams in the league.
Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job of getting Phoenix to play together as a team. These guys absolutely love playing together, because they share the basketball so well. Miami is overvalued due to its six-game winning streak coming in, which includes an unimpressive 101-99 home victory over Orlando last time out.
Hornacek is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Phoenix. Eric Spoelstra is 30-47 ATS as a favorite over 10 or more points as the coach of Miami. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the Suns Monday.
|11-25-13||Minnesota Timberwolves +7 v. Indiana Pacers||84-98||Loss||-115||7 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +7
The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 12-1 start. There's no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but the Pacers have benefited from an easy schedule more than anything.
Indeed, only two of Indiana's 12 wins have come against teams with winning records. Those were against Chicago (6-5) and Memphis (6-5), who are both down from last season.
Minnesota is 8-7 this season against a brutal schedule. Only two of its seven losses have come against teams with losing records, and those were against Cleveland (92-93) and Washington (100-104) by a combined 5 points. The Timberwolves have only lost two games all season by more than 4 points.
Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 30-4 (88.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet Minnesota Monday.
|11-24-13||Massachusetts v. Clemson||Top||62-56||Loss||-100||16 h 52 m||Show|
20* UMass/Clemson ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Clemson PK
The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time.
Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 5-0 with five straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) South Carolina (71-57) Temple (72-58) and Davidson (85-64). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going.
K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 18.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (10.8 ppg, 3.8 apg), Jordan Roper (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.6 apg), Demarcus Harrison (9.8 ppg) and Adonis Filer (4.8 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year. Jaron Blossomgame (5.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg) has made a solid contribution thus far as well.
There's no question that UMass is improved from last season as well with four starters back. Like Clemson, it has opened 5-0 this season as well. Unlike Clemson, it has had to sweat out a few games, while the Tigers have won every game this season by 14 points or more. The Minutemen survived scares against LSU (92-90) at home, and Nebraska (96-90) on a neutral court.
With free throws being more important this season due to increased foul calls, it's certainly worth pointing out that the Tigers have been cashing in their free throws at a deadly rate this season. They are making a ridiculous 80.4% of their free throws thus far. That could come in handy if this game is close down the stretch, though I don't expect it will be.
I'm going to side with the better defensive team in this one. Clemson is giving up just 51.4 points per game on 33.9% shooting. It is playing great defense without fouling, putting opponents on the line an average of only 16 times per game. UMass is allowing 77.4 points per game on 41.4% shooting. It is putting opponents on the line an average of 22 times per contest.
This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. UMass is 0-8 ATS in its last eight neutral court games with a line of +3 to PK. Clemson is 7-0 ATS in road games after a non-conference game over the past two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in road games in November games over the past two seasons. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Clemson Sunday.
|11-24-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -3||11-40||Win||100||36 h 44 m||Show|
15* Colts/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -3
The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point favorite over the Indianapolis Colts, who are one of the most overrated teams in the league. I'll take advantage and back Arizona at home as it rolls to a blowout victory over the Colts.
The Cardinals come in playing their best football of the season. They have won three straight overall with home victories over the Falcons (27-13) and Texans (27-24), along with a road victory over the Jaguars (27-14). Carson Palmer threw for over 400 yards last week and appears to be hitting his stride as the offense tries to keep up with the excellent play of the defense.
Arizona is giving up just 21.2 points and 324.9 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. This stop unit has really dug its teeth in during their 3-game winning streak. The Cardinals have held their last three opponents to 45.0 yards per game on the ground and 267.0 yards per game overall.
It's easy to see that Indianapolis is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It ranks 13th in the league in total offense at 349.9 yards per game, and 24th in total defense at 365.0 yards per game. As you can see, it is getting outgained by 15.1 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that would be 4-6 right now rather than 7-3. However, the Colts have simply been fortunate in close games for a second straight year.
After going 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, the Colts have gone 5-1 in such games this season. The good news is that I don't believe this game will be close at all as the Cardinals win going away. That being said, there's no question that these records in close games come close to evening out over time, and the Colts aren't going to continue being this fortunate for long. That's especially the case now that they are without leading receiver Reggie Wayne for the rest of the season, and the offense hasn't been nearly as effective without him.
Arizona is 4-1 at home this season. The Cardinals are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game. Arizona is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season over the past three seasons. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|11-24-13||Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 194.5||82-121||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 194.5
The Chicago Bulls are in a world of hurt right now offensively. They are without two of their top four scorers in Derrick Rose (15.9 ppg) and Jimmy Butler (11.2 ppg). Rose tore his meniscus, while Butler is out for at least another couple weeks with a toe injury. The offense is going to really struggle for a while without these two.
Los Angeles is a very tired team right now. The Clippers will be playing the dreaded 4 games in 5 days situation Sunday, and they'll really be tired considering this is an afternoon game. That fatigue will hurt them more on offense than it will on defense. Los Angeles will not be looking to push the tempo because it will be too tired to do so. This will be a half-court game and I expect both teams to struggle shooting the basketball today.
Chicago's strength is its defense, which is giving up just 90.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season. The Bulls rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 93.6 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls already played at a slow pace, ranking 19th in the league with 96.6 possessions per game. That pace will certainly get slower in their first game without Rose this season. He's basically the only one on their team capable of running the fast break, which was already a rare occurrence for the Bulls.
These teams played twice last season in low-scoring affairs, both of which came without Rose as well. Los Angeles beat Chicago 101-80 at home on November 17, 2012 for 181 combined points. The Clippers also won on the road on December 11, 2012 by a final of 94-89 for 183 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair this time around as well as these teams don't combine to sniff 190 points, let alone 194.5.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, on Sunday games are 44-19 (69.8%) over the last five seasons. Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-24-13||San Diego Chargers +5 v. Kansas City Chiefs||Top||41-38||Win||100||33 h 40 m||Show|
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +5
|11-24-13||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 v. Detroit Lions||24-21||Win||100||33 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5
The Buccaneers have showed a ton of pride over the past couple of weeks by beating Miami (22-19) and Atlanta (41-28) at home. They have shown that they are not going to pack it in, and would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler going forward. There
|11-24-13||Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +5||Top||20-16||Win||100||33 h 39 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +5
The Miami Dolphins (5-5) are still very much alive for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. They beat San Diego 20-16 at home last week to keep themselves in a good position with only six games to go. I look for them to not only cover against Carolina Sunday at home, but to likely win this game outright as well.
Carolina is in a massive letdown spot. It is coming off two nail-biting wins over the 49ers (10-9) and Patriots (24-20). The Panthers are feeling very good about themselves after those two wins against quality teams, but their about to be knocked off their pedestals against a motivated Miami squad. Plus, that game against New England was on Monday Night Football last week, so the Panthers will be working on one less day of rest than the Dolphins.
Miami has played in so many close games this season, and that fact alone shows that there is some value here with the Dolphins as a home underdog. Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less, while four of their five wins have come by 4 points or fewer. That means that seven of their 10 games thus far have been decided by 4 points or less.
The Dolphins are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. They are winning in this spot 24.2 to 11.0, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. This has clearly been a resilient bunch over the past three seasons when times have been tough, especially when playing at home. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games overall, and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-24-13||Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams -1||21-42||Win||100||33 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -1
The St. Louis Rams are a gritty team that will not give an inch under Jeff Fisher. They are coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 38-8 victory at Indianapolis to get back to 4-6 on the season. This team still believes there is a shot to make the playoffs with a big finish, and they won't give in until they are eliminated. Now, the Rams have had two full weeks to prepare for Chicago as they are coming off their bye week.
This is a team that has been playing well for a while now, going 3-3 in their last six games overall. Even in their three losses they played solid football. The Rams actually outgained the Panthers 317-282 in a 15-30 road loss. They outgained the Seahawks 339-135 in a 9-14 home loss in a game they obviously should have won. They were even in yards against the Titans 363-363 in a 21-28 home loss as well.
St. Louis has stayed relatively healthy outside of quarterback Sam Bradford, but backup Kellen Clemens has played very well in his place. Defensively, the Rams are very healthy. Chicago is also on to its backup quarterback in Josh McCown, which hasn't been much of a step down from starter Jay Cutler, either. However, the Bears have been ravaged by injuries defensively. Starters Lance Briggs (shoulder), Charles Tillman (triceps), Henry Melton (knee) and D.J. Williams (chest) are all out. Stephen Paea (toe) is doubtful as well.
The interior of Chicago's defense has been extremely vulnerable due to these injuries. Indeed, the Bears have given up an average 174, 145, 199, and 209 rushing yards in their last four games, respectively. They rank 31st in the league against the run, giving up 133.9 yards per game, and have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight and four of five.
St. Louis running back Zac Stacy will be in line for a big day on the ground. The Rams have rushed for 140, 160 and 200 yards in their last three games, respectively, with Stacy doing most of the work over that stretch. Stacy has rushed for 323 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games overall. I look for St. Louis to control the game with its rushing attack, while its underrated defense keeps McCown and company in check.
Plays on favorites (ST LOUIS) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Bears are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win. St. Louis is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a .500 road record or better. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|11-23-13||Missouri v. Ole Miss +3||Top||24-10||Loss||-115||27 h 12 m||Show|
20* Missouri/Ole Miss ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3
Ole Miss is still one of the best teams in the country despite suffering three losses this season. Two of those losses have come on the road against Alabama and Auburn, which are arguably the two best teams in the SEC. The other came at home against Texas A&M by a field goal, which is probably the third-best team in the conference. The Rebels proved they could beat an SEC power by knocking off LSU 27-24, which was the start of a four-game winning streak heading into this one.
|11-23-13||Orlando Magic +13.5 v. Miami Heat||99-101||Win||100||17 h 13 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +13.5
This is a home-and-home situation for the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. Miami won the first meeting in Orlando on November 20 by a final of 120-92. Now, they'll have a rematch Saturday night just three days later after each team has had the past two days off.
It's usually a good idea to back the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation. That's because the team that lost the first game is obviously motivated for revenge, while the team that one can easily become disinterested after already beating their opponent a few nights earlier.
I believe this is certainly one of those good situations to back the Game 1 loser. Miami is coming off back-to-back championships, and it already has a hard time being motivated during the regular season. There's no way the Heat even show up for this game Saturday, and that's why Orlando will easily be able to stay within this inflated number with a chance to win it in the end.
It's obvious that there is value here with the Magic. They were a 7-point home underdog in their first meeting with the Heat on November 20. Now, they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch. Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together in the recent past. The road team is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
Another reason this line has been inflated is the fact that the Magic have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games overall. Meanwhile, the Heat have covered the spread in in three straight coming in. These two trends have forced oddsmakers to set the number much higher than it should be.
Plays against home favorites (MIAMI) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Magic Saturday.
|11-23-13||Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||14-10||Loss||-110||41 h 11 m||Show|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5
The Volunteers come in on two weeks of rest having last played on November 9 and in need of a victory. They have to win their final two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky to become bowl eligible, and it
|11-23-13||California +32 v. Stanford||Top||13-63||Loss||-105||23 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +32
The betting public wants nothing to do with 1-10 California. As a result, I believe this line is way out of whack and inflated. This is the final game of the season for the Golden Bears, and their last chance to redeem themselves. I fully expect them to put their best foot forward Saturday because of it.
Stanford is going to be in a terrible state of mind coming into this one. It just lost at USC last week after a big win over Oregon in its previous game. That loss to the Trojans likely cost Stanford the Pac-12 Title, and they know it. I look for the Cardinal to suffer a bit of a hangover effect because of it.
The Cardinal are not an explosive offensive team. It's going to take a lot of points for them to cover this big number, and I just don't believe they have it in them. Stanford is only scoring 30.4 points and averaging 384.2 yards per game to rank 84th in the country in total offense. They are a running team who does not up the tempo offensively, which favors getting big points when going against them.
California has only beaten beaten by more than 32 points twice this season. One was a 16-55 loss to Oregon, which is a team with an explosive offense that can cover these big spreads consistently. The other was a 28-62 loss to USC. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Trojans scored three special teams touchdowns. Take those away, and it's a 41-28 game.
Stanford only has one win by more than 21 points this season. That was a 55-17 win over Washington State. This isn't a team known for blowing out the opposition simply because of the style of football it plays. In fact, the Cardinal have only scored more than 34 points twice all season.
Cal has found a running game in recent weeks to compliment its dynamic passing attack. The Bears rushed for 195 yards on USC, and 197 yards on Colorado. They rank 11th in the country in passing offense at 333.4 yards per game. Stanford's biggest weakness is a pass defense that ranks 96th in the country at 253.9 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 63.7% of their passes against Stanford.
Plays on road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Stanford is 6-20 against the spread in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bet California Saturday.
|11-23-13||Nebraska v. Penn State -1.5||23-20||Loss||-110||22 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -1.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions want revenge from two very close defeats to the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the past two seasons. I believe they get it at home this Saturday, where they have been dominant all season long.
Nebraska beat Penn State 17-14 on the road in 2011. Then, after blowing a 20-6 halftime lead, the Nittany Lions would lost 23-32 at Nebraska in 2012. They certainly have had this game circled on their calendars after those two defeats, and there's no question they will be the more motivated team Saturday because of it.
The Cornhuskers will be in a fragile state of mind heading into this one. They just lost at home to Michigan State by a final of 28-41 in a game that was pretty much for the Big Ten Legends Division Title. They will have a hard time bouncing back from that kind of a loss, and I look for them to suffer a hangover because of it.
Nebraska's strength is its rushing attack, which averages 240 yards per game. Penn State has been stout against the run this season, giving up just 144 yards per game and 3.9 per carry. I look for the Nittany Lions to hold up against the run, which will be the key to winning this contest.
Penn State boasts one of the more underrated offenses in the country. It is putting up 29.3 points and 434.6 yards per game this season, including 37.0 points and 478.8 yards per game at home where it is 5-1 on the season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.2 points per game at home this year.
Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg has been solid, completing 59% of his passes for 2,399 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Bill Belton has rushed for 796 yards and five touchdowns, while Zach Zwinak has added 725 yards and 12 scores.
Nebraska has played a quarterback carousel all season, playing three different quarterbacks at times this year. It has not allowed the Huskers to get into any kind of rhythm offensively. Whoever has been under center of late has turned the ball over a ton. The Huskers have committed 16 turnovers in their last five games overall for an average of 3.2 per game.
The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Cornhuskers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Nebraska is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Penn State Saturday.
|11-23-13||Georgia State +24 v. Arkansas State||33-35||Win||100||22 h 53 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State +24
The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-10 team like Georgia State. This forces oddsmakers to set inflated spreads this late in the season, and there's no question in my mind that this line has been inflated Saturday as the Panthers take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves.
Georgia State is nowhere near as bad as its record would indicate. As a result, there has been a ton of value on this team all season. In fact, Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, which means that it has been playing teams much tougher than it was expected to.
Since losing 3-45 at No. 1 Alabama, the Panthers have been playing their best football of the season. They only lost 28-35 as a 15-point home dog to Troy. The lost at Texas State 17-24 as a 16-point dog, and they also covered as a 19-point dog in a 28-44 home loss to Western Kentucky, and as a 20.5-point dog in a 21-35 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette.
To compare, Arkansas State only beat Troy 41-34 at home as a 6-point favorite. Arkansas State also lost to Louisiana-Lafayette 7-23 at home. It was outgained 168-470 by the Rajin' Cajuns in that defeat. The Red Wolves simply aren't the same team they were the past two years when they won back-to-back Sun Belt Titles. However, they continue to get treated like it by oddsmakers.
Indeed, Georgia State has played its best football of late. It was only outgained 410-444 in that loss to Western Kentucky two weeks ago. Quarterback Ronnie Bell threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Last week, the Panthers were only outgained 481-482 by Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Again, Bell threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns.
Bell should continue to have success against an Arkansas State defense that is simply not very good. The Red Wolves have allowed 417.8 total yards per game this season, which is very poor when you consider that the 10 opponents that they have faced only average 389 yards per game on the season.
Also, offensively, the Red Wolves are averaging a solid 431 yards per game. However, their 10 opponents combine to give up an average of 445 yards per game, so that 431-yard number is not very impressive at all. I would argue that with those numbers, the Red Wolves are below average on both sides of the football.
Georgia State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games this season. Arkansas state is 0-9 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Panthers. Take Georgia State Saturday.
|11-23-13||New Mexico State +22.5 v. Florida Atlantic||10-55||Loss||-110||22 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +22.5
New Mexico State is one of the most undervalued teams in all of college football right now in terms of the point spread due to its 1-9 record on the season. Oddsmakers have been forced to set their spreads to high in recent weeks, and they've done so again this week. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-9 team, which is the cause for the inflation. We'll take advantage Saturday.
The Aggies have played their best football of the season of late. They are coming off back-to-back losses, but were very competitive against quality opponents in the process. They lost 35-49 at LA Lafayette on November 2 as a 32.5-point underdog. They lost 34-48 at home against Boston College on November 9 as a 25-point dog. Now, they have had two weeks of rest to get ready for Florida Atlantic since that loss to the Eagles and to build off of their solid play during the bye week.
New Mexico State actually led LA-Lafayette 28-7 in that game before eventually losing by 14. It also outgained the Rajin' Cajuns 450-440 for the game. Andrew McDonald threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Against Boston College, it was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter. The Aggies would lose by 14 despite outgaining the Eagles 558-555 for the game. McDonald had another solid performance, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns in the loss.
I would certainly argue that Boston College and Louisiana-Lafayette are both better teams than Florida Atlantic, and you would be crazy if you thought otherwise. That's why the Owls have no business being a 22.5-point favorite in this game against an improved Aggies squad that is coming off two weeks of rest.
The reason FAU is getting so much love here is that it is coming off back-to-back blowout victories over Tulane and Southern Miss. I believe Tulane is one of the most overrated teams in college football, while Southern Miss is the worst team in the FBS, period. Those blowout wins were not impressive at all, but because they happened, the Owls are getting a lot of respect from the books here.
Florida Atlantic is only scoring 24.1 points and putting up 354.9 yards per game this season to rank 104th in the country in total offense. It takes a good offense to cover a big number like this, and the Owls are simply lacking one. New Mexico State comes in having posted 449, 450 and 558 total yards in its last three games overall, so it certainly has the offense to keep this game competitive. I also like some of the comments from head coach Doug Martin heading into this one as well.
"I love the mentality of our team and our players," Martin said. "They're fighting, they've got great character. Not many teams with one win play as hard as we do. Especially against Boston College and the talent level that team had. A lot of people have been appreciative of that. I think in those terms, we've certainly turned corner, as far as the mentality of the football team."
"It's going to be a great task. A challenge we're certainly looking forward too," Martin said of Saturday's contest. "To be able to win out for us would be a great momentum change, momentum shift for us going into recruiting. We're excited about the game."
Plays on road underdogs (NEW MEXICO ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS since 1992. FAU is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points per game since 1992. The Owls are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after committing one or less turnovers in their previous game. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-23-13||Nebraska-Omaha +8.5 v. Drake||80-88||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +8.5
Nebraska-Omaha is one of the most underrated teams in the country in the early going. This is a team that returned four starters from last season and is playing just its second season as a Division 1 squad. That's why the Mavericks are under the radar because the betting public hasn't caught on yet.
The Mavericks returned each of their top five scorers from last season in Justin Simmons (16.7 ppg), John Karhoff (12.0 ppg), CJ Carter (9.7 ppg), Alex Phillips (8.2 ppg) and Marcus Tyus (8.2 ppg). All five guys have made significant contributions in the early going.
Carter is leading the way with 15.8 points per game. Karhoff (11.2 ppg), Tyus (11.2 ppg), Simmons (7.2 ppg) and Phillips (6.5) have picked up right where they left off as well. Devin Patterson (11.8 ppg, 4.5 apg) and Mike Rostampour (7.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg) have emerged onto the scene as well to really show the depth of this team.
Nebraska-Omaha is off to a 3-2 start this season. Its only two losses have come on the road against Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point underdog, and UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog. It has beaten Northern Illinois (68-66) on the road as a 6.5-point dog. It also beat Missouri-KC (101-71) and South Carolina State (91-59) at home. Iowa and UNLV are both expected to make the NCAA Tournament this season, so those losses were impressive to say the least.
Drake only returned two starters this season and lost three of its top four scores, including Ben Simmons (14.1 ppg). Drake did play well in road games against Illinois Chicago (61-59) and Saint Mary's (63-67), but this team is getting way too much respect as an 8.5-point favorite here.
After going into Iowa and losing by 8, and going into UNLV and losing by 3, there's no question the Mavericks can stay within 8 of the Bulldogs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Nebraska-Omaha win outright. Drake is not as good of a team as either Iowa or UNLV.
One thing I love about this Nebraska-Omaha team is its free throw shooting. It has averaged 22 makes on 28 attempts per game for a 79.0% free throw percentage. With the emphasis on calling more fouls this season, free throw shooting is at a premium.
This is a very tough spot for Drake. It is coming off a heartbreaking loss at Saint Mary's last time out. It could certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat. That's especially the case when you consider it has another big road game at Fresno State on deck.
Drake is 0-6 ATS after forcing its last opponents to commit eight or less turnovers over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Nebraska-Omaha is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Mavericks. Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.
|11-23-13||Michigan State v. Northwestern +7.5||30-6||Loss||-115||19 h 58 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5
The Wildcats clearly are nowhere near as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, I would argue that this team is every bit as good as the one that won double-digit games last season. The only difference has been their record in close games, which has simply been atrocious. Five of their six losses have come by 10 points or less.
That 10-point loss to Ohio State was a 3-point game before the Buckeyes scored a garbage touchdown on special teams on the final play of the game, falling on a fumble in the end zone. Northwestern also lost by 8 points to Michigan last week, only because it went into triple overtime and the Wolverines got the 2-point conversion.
The other three close losses came to Minnesota (17-20), Iowa (10-17) and Nebraska (24-27) on a hail mary on the game's final play. The Wildcats easily could have won all five of those games, realistically only getting blown out once this season. That was on the road against Wisconsin, which was understandable because they were just coming off their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State the previous week.
With a chance to make a bowl game if they win their next two games, the Wildcats should be plenty motivated to put an end to this misery and get a win Saturday. Plus, teams who are coming off a multiple-overtime loss are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their next game in 2013. While many will be expecting Northwestern to fold, I'm not one of them. Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best head coaches in the country and he's an excellent motivator. He will have his troops ready to go at home Saturday.
Michigan State is coming off its biggest win of the season at Nebraska, and knowing that it can afford to lose one game and still win the Legends Division, it may have a hard time getting motivated to play Saturday. The Spartans could lose this game and still beat Minnesota at home next week to win the Legends Division. The Wildcats cannot lose or they won
|11-22-13||Navy +3 v. San Jose State||Top||58-52||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
20* Navy/San Jose State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +3
The Midshipmen clearly want revenge from their two losses to the Trojans over the past two seasons. Last year, in their 12-0 loss, they didn
|11-22-13||Davidson v. Clemson -4||54-85||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4
The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time.
Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 4-0 with four straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) South Carolina (71-57) and Temple (72-58). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going.
K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 18.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (11.0 ppg, 4.0 apg), Jordan Roper (11.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg), Demarcus Harrison (7.2 ppg) and Adonis Filer (4.8 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year.
Davidson returns just two starters from last season and loses three of its top four scorers. The going has certainly been tough for the Wildcats in the early going as this team has clearly taken a big step back from last year. They have opened 1-3 with losses to Duke (77-111), Wisconsin-Milwaukee (77-81) and Virginia (57-70). Their 94-82 win over a horrible Georgia team last night was far from impressive.
With free throws being more important this season, it's certainly worth pointing out that the Tigers have been cashing in their free throws at a deadly rate this season. They are making a ridiculous 81.2% of their free throws thus far. That could come in handy if this game is close down the stretch, though I don't expect it will be.
This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. The Wildcats are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Bet Clemson Friday.
|11-22-13||Towson v. Kansas -17.5||58-88||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kansas -17.5
The Kansas Jayhawks should be a much bigger favorite at home Friday against Towson. I look for them to be covering by halftime, and to build on their lead from there. The books have missed their mark badly tonight folks.
Somehow, I believe the Jayhawks actually came into 2013 underrated due to the lack of experience they had returning. However, they have made up for it with the talent they brought in, and the talent that was left over.
Kansas has opened 3-0 this year, which includes a 94-83 win over Duke. I believe that the Blue Devils are one of the top three teams in the country, right along with Kansas, so that win was impressive to say the least.
Perry Ellis (19.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) has been a monster thus far. Andrew Wiggins (17.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft. Wayne Selden Jr. (10.0 ppg, 4.3apg), Joel Embiid (9.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Frank Mason (9.0 ppg) have been solid as well.
Towson State is getting too much respect from the books tonight due to its 3-1 start. All three victories came at home against the likes of Navy, Morgan State and Temple. In its lone road game, Towson lost badly by a final of 44-78 at Villanova. I look for a similar result tonight as Towson is simply outclassed in this one.
The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. Kansas has won 65 straight non-conference games at home and has taken two meetings with Towson over that stretch by a combined 72 points.
The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. Kansas is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Friday.
|11-22-13||Indiana Pacers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 186||97-82||Win||100||7 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Celtics UNDER 186
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics. I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle tonight when these teams square off inside TD Garden Friday.
Indiana ranks 24th in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game. It also ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 90.5 points per 100 possessions. With its ability to defend and play a half-court style, Indiana dictates tempo in almost every game it plays.
The Pacers are scoring 96.4 points and allowing 87.2 points per game this season, combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points per game. It is only allowing foes to shoot 39.5% from the floor. Boston, which is scoring just 93.4 points per game, will have a hard time finding the basket tonight.
This has been a very low-scoring series between the Pacers and Celtics in years' past, and with defensive-minded Brad Stevens as Boston's new coach, I believe that will continue. The Pacers and Celtics have combined for 164, 169, 158, 181, 180 and 161 points in their last six meetings, respectively. They are combining to average 168.8 points per game during this span, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 186.
The UNDER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games when playing on 1 days rest. the UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 games following a win. The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 vs. NBA Central Division opponents. The UNDER is 13-6 in Celtics last 19 games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-22-13||Phoenix Suns +2 v. Charlotte Bobcats||Top||98-91||Win||100||6 h 30 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +2
The Phoenix Suns are the single-most underrated team in the league in 2013. They have opened 5-6 this season and are off four straight losses, which will have them very hungry for a victory. A closer look into their defeats really shows how close this is to being an 11-0 team right now.
All six of the Suns' losses have come by 7 points or less this season, including four by 3 points or fewer. Three of those losses came on the road to three of the best teams in the league in the Thunder, Spurs and Blazers. This team isn't getting the respect it deserves, and it should not be an underdog here.
Phoenix has played its last two games without its best player in Eric Bledsoe. Well, Bledsoe is expected to return tonight from a bruised shin, and I believe it's going to make the difference. He is averaging 20.4 points, 6.8 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. What is most amazing about the Suns start is that Bledsoe and Goran Dragic have played complete games together in just two of the last nine contests.
|11-21-13||UNLV +3 v. Air Force||41-21||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on UNLV +3
The UNLV Rebels are extremely motivated to get to their first bowl game since 2000. They are clearly improved this year with a 5-5 record coming into this one. After suffering losses to San Jose State (24-34) and Utah State (24-28) over their past two games, the Rebels are certainly feeling a sense of urgency to get that all-important sixth victory. They don
|11-21-13||Temple v. Clemson -3.5||58-72||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -3.5
The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time.
Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 3-0 with three straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) and South Carolina (71-57). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going.
K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (10.3 ppg, 3.7 apg), Jordan Roper (10.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.7 apg), Demarcus Harrison (8.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Adonis Filer (6.3 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year.
Temple simply lost a ton of talent from last year and is in rebuilding mode. It lost four of its top five scorers in Khalif Wyatt (20.5 ppg), Scootie Randall (11.3 ppg), Jake O'Brien (9.8 ppg) and Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (8.9 ppg). The leading returning scorers are Anthony Lee (9.8 ppg) and Will Cummings (5.8 ppg).
The Owls have struggled in the early going as a result, opening 1-2 with their only win coming at Pennsylvania (78-73). They lost at home to Kent State (77-81) and on the road to Towson State (69-75). This team is clearly in a world of hurt and has no depth. Only eight players have even seen the floor this year, and three of them have been Daniel Dingle (3.3 ppg), Josh Brown (2.0 ppg) and Devontae Watson (1.3 ppg).
With free throws being more important this season, it's certainly worth pointing out the advantage the Tigers will have at the charity stripe in this one. Clemson is shooting 81.4% from the line on an average of 20 free throws per game. Temple is shooting 69.7% from the line on 22 attempts per contest.
This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. Plays on a favorite (CLEMSON) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS since 1997. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in November road games over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Roll with Clemson Thursday.
|11-21-13||New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10||Top||17-13||Win||100||19 h 42 m||Show|
25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +10
While the Falcons are almost certainly out of the playoff hunt, they
|11-21-13||Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 211||91-105||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 211
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Clippers and Thunder. This will be their second meeting in eight days having last played on November 13 in a 111-103 home victory for the Clippers and 214 combined points.
In that game, the total was set at 209.5. As you can see, oddsmakers have adjusted this total up to 211. That has created some line value on the UNDER. Plus, when teams are familiar with one another having recently played, it usually tends to lead to a lower-scoring game the second time around. And, being a National TV game tonight, the defensive intensity will be upped a bit as well.
Los Angeles has played in much lower-scoring games on the road this season than it has at home. The Clippers are scoring 101.5 points and allowing 101.5 points on the road this season, combining with their opponents for an average of 203 points per game. Oklahoma City is scoring 107.7 points and allowing 101.7 points at home, combining with their opponents for roughly 209 points per game. As you can see, both totals are lower than tonight's total of 211, creating some line value.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, first half of the season are 135-70 (65.9%) to the UNDER over the last five seasons. Oklahoma City is 26-12 to the UNDER in home games when playing on two days of rest since 1996. The UNDER is 24-8 in Clippers last 32 Thursday games. The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Thunder last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-21-13||Connecticut v. Boston College +10||Top||72-70||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
20* UConn/Boston College National TV KNOCKOUT on Boston College +10
I fully expected Boston College to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They returned 96 percent of their scoring from last season, 96 percent of their rebounding and 98 percent of their assists. A 1-3 start has not changed my opinion on this team, but it certainly has created some line value as the Eagles are a 10-point underdog to Connecticut tonight on a neutral floor when they shouldn't be.
A closer look at Boston College's 1-3 start shows that it could easily be 3-1 right now. Two of its losses came on the road to very good teams in Providence (78-82) and UMass (73-86). The other was a home loss to a Toledo (92-95) team that is much better than it gets credit for.
The Eagles returned two of the best players in the ACC in Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Olivier Hanlan (14.6 ppg), who scored 41 points against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament and finished very strong last year. Both have picked up right where they left off last season. Hanlan is averaging 24.5 points per game, while Anderson has posted 16.2 points per contest. The Eagles are shooting 83.2% from the free throw line, which will come in handy considering the emphasis on more foul calls this season.
Connecticut is overvalued right now due to its perfect 4-0 start to the season. It has played a very soft schedule with three of its wins coming against Yale (80-62), Detroit (101-55) and Boston (77-60). In its only real test of the season, the Huskies failed to cover their 5-point spread in a 78-77 win over Maryland on a neutral floor. This is a quality squad, but they should not be a double-digit favorite over Boston College tonight.
Connecticut is 13-30 ATS off two consecutive homes wins by 10 points or more since 1997. UConn is 0-7 ATS after four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Boston College is 6-0 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Eagles. Bet Boston College Thursday.
|11-20-13||Boston Celtics v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 192||93-104||Loss||-103||8 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Spurs UNDER 192
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs. Neither team is lighting it up offensively this season, and both have been solid on the defensive end, especially the Spurs.
Boston is averaging just 93.4 points per game on the season, including 89.6 points on 41.8% shooting in road games. San Antonio is scoring just 92.0 points per game at home this year. The Spurs have been excellent on the other end, giving up just 89.3 points overall and 85.7 at home. They rank second in the league in defensive efficiency.
Boston is 8-4 to the UNDER in all games this season. San Antonio is 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall. The Spurs' last two contests have been extremely low scoring with a 92-79 home win over Washington, and a 91-82 triumph at Utah. As this team continues to age, I look for them to play in more lower scoring games in 2013-14.
San Antonio is 9-1 to the UNDER versus poor ball handling teams - committing >=16 turnovers/game over the last two seasons. Boston is 17-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 road games. The UNDER is 30-12-2 in Spurs last 44 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-20-13||Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3||Top||35-17||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
20* NIU/Toledo MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Toledo +3
The Toledo Rockets will be out for revenge after narrow losses to Northern Illinois each of the past two seasons. They fell 63-60 at home against the Huskies in 2011, and lost 24-31 on the road last year. They have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. After taking care of business up to this point, the Rockets now control their own destiny in the MAC West. If they win out, they will win the division and play in the MAC Title game. They certainly will not be lacking any motivation because of it.
Toledo was very impressive in a 51-41 win over Buffalo last week. This was a 38-0 game early into the third quarter with the outcome basically decided. The Rockets packed it in from there, and allowed the Bulls to rack up a ton of points in garbage time to make the final score appear closer than it really was. Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns in the win, while Kareem Hunt added 186 rushing yards and a score.
This is a Toledo offense that is putting up 35.0 points and 456.1 yards per game against a very tough schedule this season. Its only losses have come on the road to the likes of Florida, Missouri and Ball State, and it hung tough in all three contests. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this year, outscoring opponents by 17.8 points per game. Their strength defensively is a run defense that is giving up 160 yards per game on just 3.8 per carry. The key to a win will be stopping Jordan Lynch and NIU
|11-20-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 196||91-82||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Bucks UNDER 196
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Portland Trail Blazers and Milwaukee Bucks. Both teams play at below-average league paces, especially Milwaukee, which should control the tempo playing at home tonight.
The Bucks rank 25th in the league in pace at 94.9 possessions per game. The Blazers are 18th in pace at 96.4 possessions per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league to boot, scoring just 90.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting. This is honestly one of the worst rosters in the league.
Milwaukee has been even worse offensively of late,scoring an average of 85.0 points per game over its last five contests on 38.5% shooting. Portland has played three straight high-scoring games, which is why I believe this total has been inflated as it is coming off three straight OVERS.
Portland is 31-15 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games since 1996. The Blazers are 31-17 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 or more points over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Bucks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-20-13||Indiana Pacers -6 v. New York Knicks||Top||103-96||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -6
The Indiana Pacers (9-1) have been the best team in the league to open 2013-14. Off their first loss of the season at Chicago, and with three days of rest in between games having last played on Saturday, I fully expect the Pacers to bounce back with a blowout victory at New York tonight.
The hapless Knicks have opened 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in 2013-14. I expected this team to take a big step back this year with the poor moves they made in the offseason, and that has proven to be the case. Now, injuries have really taken their toll.
The Knicks are without Tyson Chandler, and both Raymond Felton and Metta World Peace are doubtful to play tonight. That leaves an already poor roster very thin going forward. Plus, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Knicks after falling 86-92 at Detroit last night for their third straight defeat, and seventh loss in nine games.
Indiana is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following a road loss. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in all home games this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Indiana. Take the Pacers Wednesday.
|11-20-13||Dayton +7.5 v. Georgia Tech||82-72||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton +7.5
I believe Dayton came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 17-14 last season. A closer look shows that this team was much better than its record would indicate.
Indeed, the Flyers played 13 games that were decided by six points or less last season, winning only three of them. That means that only four of their 14 losses came by more than six points. This team was very close to being a 20-plus win team, and I fully expect the Flyers to top that number this season with better fortune in close games.
Archie Miller's team brings back a ton of talent this year. Veteran guard Vee Sanford is back, as is a sophomore class of Dyshawn Pierre, Jalen Robinson, Devon Scott and Khari Price that played 34 percent of the team's minutes as freshmen. Matt Kavanaugh averaged 9.0 points and 5.0 rebounds as a junior, but was suspended all of last season. Jordan Sibert, an Ohio State transfer, is a major find. Freshmen guards Kendall Pollard and Dayshon Smith were big recruits.
All of this talent has led to a 3-0 start for Dayton this season. It is shooting 47.5% from the floor, 48.3% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line. Pierre (15.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Price (14.7 ppg), Sibert (11.7 ppg), Devin Oliver (10.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Sanford (9.3 ppg) and Kavanaugh (5.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) have all made major contributions thus far.
Georgia Tech is coming off a huge 80-71 win at in-state rival Georgia, which puts it in a big letdown spot here. I'm not expecting much at all from this team in 2013 after going just 16-15 last year. The Yellow Jackets do have a lot of experience coming back from last year, but the fact of the matter is that the talent just isn't that good.
Dayton is 6-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons. Georgia Tech is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS win. The Yellow Jackets are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgia Tech is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following a S.U. win. Take Dayton Wednesday.
|11-19-13||Bucknell +8.5 v. St John's||63-67||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucknell +8.5
The Bucknell Bison are coming off a 28-6 season in which they earned the No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. While they lost three of their top players, they return all-conference pick Cameron Ayers (12.4 ppg) along with experienced backups in senior Ryan Hill, junior Steven Kaspar and sophomore Ryan Frazier.
I have been really impressed with what I've seen from the Bison en route to a 2-1 start this season. Their only loss came at Stanford by a final of 68-72. They went on the road and beat Penn State 90-80, while also topping St. Francis-PA 72-50 at home.
Bucknell is shooting 52.1% from the floor, 45.3% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line. Ayers (15.3 ppg) and Kaspar (14.3 ppg, 5.7 apg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way, while Ben Brackney (11.7 ppg), Dan Hoffman (11.7 ppg) and Brian Fitzpatrick (9.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been pleasant surprises.
St. John's is coming off a brutal 17-16 campaign last season and I haven't been impressed with what I've seen from the Red Storm so far. They have opened 1-1 with their loss coming against Wisconsin by a final of 75-86 on a neutral floor as a 5-point underdog. Their 73-57 home win over Wagner was far from impressive, too.
The Red Storm are 1-10 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three seasons. They are actually losing in this spot 65.9 to 70.1, or by an average of 4.2 points per game. St. John's is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. win. Take Bucknell Tuesday.
|11-19-13||Buffalo v. Miami (OH) +24.5||Top||44-7||Loss||-105||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio +24.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is 0-10 on the season. That
|11-19-13||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards OVER 205||100-104||Loss||-106||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 205
The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. I look for an absolute shootout for four quarters as the final combined score of this one sails way OVER the number.
Minnesota ranks 1st in the league in pace at 102.6 possessions per game. It is also 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Washington likes to play at a fast tempo as well, making for the perfect storm. The Wizards rank 12th in the league in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.
The Timberwolves are putting up 108.5 points per game on the season. Washington has been solid offensively as well, averaging 100.0 points per game. Neither team has played well on the other end. The Timberwolves are giving up 100.2 points per game, while the Wizards are yielding 104.6 points per contest.
Washington is 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Washington is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-18-13||Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers -8.5||106-102||Loss||-102||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5
The Los Angeles Clippers want revenge in a big way tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Grizzlies last season, but that was largely aided by an injury to Blake Griffin. It's payback time tonight ladies and gents.
The Clippers have looked very sharp of late, winning seven of their last nine games overall while going 6-3 ATS in the process. Offensively, they cannot be stopped, averaging 110.0 points per game on 48.6% shooting. The Clippers are 5-0 at home this year, putting up a ridiculous 118.6 points per game.
Memphis is clearly down this season, opening 5-5 while continuing to struggle offensively. It is averaging just 94.3 points per game overall, including 91.6 on the road where it is 2-3 on the year. This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies to boot. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Grizzlies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team has won five of the past six meetings with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Roll with the Clippers Monday.
|11-18-13||Norfolk State v. East Carolina -1.5||74-76||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -1.5
East Carolina is showing tremendous value tonight as only a 1.5-point favorite over Norfolk State. This is the NIT Tip Off played at Cameron Indoor Stadium, which is the home of the Duke Blue Devils. With a chance to play Duke next, ECU will certainly want to take care of business tonight to take advantage of that opportunity.
I really like what I've seen from ECU thus far en route to a 3-0 start. It has posted blowout home victories over NC Wesleyan (97-51) and Chowan (95-45), as well as an impressive road win at UNC-Greensboro (85-84). It is scoring 92.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting. It is also hitting 71.2% of its free throws, and outrebounding opponents 47-34 on average. It is holding opponents to 60.0 points on 35.3% shooting.
Norfolk State has been far less impressive en route to a 2-1 start. Its two wins have both come at home against the likes of Newberry (115-95) and Virginia Union (92-84). It lost in its lone road game to Texas Southern (83-95). It is allowing a ridiculous 91.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting. I'll gladly take the better defensive team in this one.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NORFOLK ST) - after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1997. This is an ECU team that went 23-12 last season and one that is obviously a quality bunch again in 2013. Bet East Carolina Monday.
|11-18-13||Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz +9||Top||98-87||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +9
This is a home-and-home situation for the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. These teams just played at Golden State Saturday night with the Warriors coming away with a 102-88 home victory. I look for the Jazz to return the favor two nights later and to easily stay within this 9-point spread with an excellent chance to pull off the upset.
Utah has been playing much better of late after a horrendous start. It has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, beating New Orleans 111-105 as a 2.5-point home underdog in the process. It also stayed within its 10-point spread against San Antonio in a 9-point loss.
There's no question that the Jazz are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one. I normally look to back the team that lost the first game in a home-and-home situation, especially if their loss was on the road in the first game. The oddsmakers giving us 9 points to back a team in revenge mode in this situation is simply a gift.
Utah has won four of its last six meetings with Golden State. The Warriors are just 2-3 on the road this season after going 19-22 on the road last year. Golden State is 3-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three seasons. Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Jazz Monday.
|11-18-13||New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers||Top||20-24||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England +3
Give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a team, and the Patriots are almost certainly going to be ready for everything Carolina has to offer. That will be the case Monday as the Patriots come off a bye following their most dominant performance of the season. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 at home last time out on November 3 behind a whopping 610 yards of total offense.
|11-18-13||The Citadel +28 v. Tennessee||60-86||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on The Citadel +28
Tennessee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. It has opened 1-1 with its only win coming against lowly USC Upstate at home by a final of 74-65. I fully expect this game to be much closer than this 28-point spread as well as The Citadel is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.
The Citadel returned four starters from last season, and it is off to a 2-2 start with both of its losses coming on the road by 11 and 15 points, respectively. It has three studs in Matt Van Scyoc (18.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 92.9% free throws), Brian White (15.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 81.2% free throws) and Ashton Moore (13.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 78.6% free throws).
Marshall Harris III (9.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 100% free throws) has been a solid contributor as well. With the importance of free throws being at a premium this season, I really like backing teams like The Citadel, which is shooting 75.9% from the charity stripe as a team. It is also only allowing 40.2% shooting to opponents and putting them on the free throw line an average of 19 times per game, so it is sound defensively.
Tennessee only brings back one starters from last season. It certainly has not been impressive in opening 1-1. It is shooting just 38.6% from the field while allowing opponents to shoot 46.8%. The Volunteers have struggled at the free throw line as well, making just 65.5% of their attempts. This team is clearly overrated in the early going, and that was evident in a 74-65 win over USC Upstate.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win. The Citadel is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Take The Citadel Monday.
|11-17-13||Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. Denver Broncos||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City +8
Coming off their bye week, the Chiefs have had two full weeks to prepare for Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. That will be a huge advantage heading into this divisional showdown with first place in the AFC West on the line. That's especially the case when you consider that Andy Reid is 13-1 straight up off a bye as a head coach.
Adding to Denver's disadvantage is the fact that Peyton Manning is banged up. He was noticeably limping at the end of their 28-20 win at San Diego last week, and it
|11-17-13||Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 189.5||Top||97-86||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 189.5
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings both play at extremely slow paces. As a result, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle when these teams square off Sunday.
Memphis ranks 27th in the league in pace at 94.5 possessions per game. Sacramento is tied with Memphis for 27th, also averaging 94.5 possessions per contest.
Making matters worse for both teams is that neither has been efficient offensively this year. Sacramento is 20th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Memphis is even worse, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER off a road win over the last two years. The UNDER is 17-8 in Grizzlies last 25 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Kings last 27 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game.
|11-17-13||San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints -3||Top||20-23||Push||0||63 h 31 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Saints Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -3
The Saints have been simply unstoppable at home this season. They are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread inside the Superdome with their smallest margin of victory coming by six points. They are scoring 35.2 points and giving up 15.0 points at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game. They certainly will be wanting revenge on the 49ers, who have beaten them each of the past two seasons.
Looking at the numbers, it
|11-17-13||Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Chicago Bears||20-23||Push||0||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore Ravens +3
The Baltimore Ravens have simply been unlucky in close games this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-5 record to this point. They have lost four times by six or fewer points, including three times by a field goal or less. Only twice in their nine games this year have they been beaten by more than a field goal. That trend right there shows you that there is some nice value in snagging the Ravens at +3 in this contest.
Baltimore kept its playoff and division title hopes alive last week with a huge 20-17 victory over Cincinnati. It led 17-0 and nearly blew the game as the Bengals tied it on a hail mary with no time left to force overtime. However, the Ravens would get the winning field goal in the extra session, and that
|11-17-13||Cleveland Browns +6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||20-41||Loss||-110||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the most improved teams in the league in 2013. Despite going through three different quarterbacks, they have a chance to pull within a half-game of Cincinnati for first place in the AFC North with a win Sunday.
Jason Campbell has played very well as a starter in his last two games. He threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-23 loss at Kansas City. Campbell threw for 262 yards and three scores in a 24-18 home win over Baltimore last time out on November 3.
As you can see, the Browns are coming off their bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for the Bengals. That will be a huge advantage heading into this one.
After already beating Cincinnati 17-6 at home on September 29 in their first meeting of the season, they
|11-17-13||Washington Redskins +4.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles||16-24||Loss||-110||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Washington Redskins +4.5
This is clearly a must-win game for Washington, which cannot afford another loss if it wants to win back-to-back NFC East Titles. The good news is that the NFC East is down this season, with both Dallas and Philadelphia tied for first place with .500 records.
This is where Washington made its run last season, winning each of its final seven games after starting with an identical 3-6 record to finish 10-6. Having that memory in the back of their minds will serve the Redskins well going forward.
Washington will have a big edge in rest heading into this one. It last played on Thursday, November 7, losing 27-34 at Minnesota despite dominating that football game. In fact, the Redskins outgained the Vikings 433-307 but found a way to lose.
Offense certainly hasn
|11-16-13||Wyoming +24 v. Boise State||7-48||Loss||-110||51 h 58 m||Show|
15* Wyoming/Boise State ESPN 2 BAILOUT on Wyoming +24
The Boise State Broncos are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. They should not be a 23-point favorite over Wyoming. Down their starting quarterback, and certainly down from their level of play from year's past, the Broncos are way overvalued in this one.
This line is an overreaction from Boise State's 42-30 win at Colorado State last time out, coupled with Wyoming's 10-48 loss to Fresno State last game. The Broncos were actually outgained 437-626 by Colorado State, further showing that their defense is nowhere near as dominant as it has been in year's past.
Boise State is allowing 25.2 points and 437.7 yards per game this season to rank 95th in the country in total defense. It will have a hard time containing an explosive Wyoming offense that is averaging 33.6 points and 491.6 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total offense. Wyoming's ability to move the football and put points on the board will allow it to stay within this 23-point spread.
Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith is quietly having a monster season in the Mountain West. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,508 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 441 yards and three scores. Running back Shaun Wick is also having a big year, rushing for 823 yards and nine touchdowns on 6.5 per carry.
The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They have gone 3-1 against the spread in road games in 2013. They lost at Nebraska 34-37 as a 31-point underdog to open the season. They won at Air Force 56-23 as a 4-point favorite, and they only lost 44-51 at San Jose State as a 10.5-point underdog. Those three results right there show that Wyoming travels well.
Furthermore, Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is a sensational 17-4 against the spread as a road underdog as the coach of Wyoming. Wyoming is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games overall. Meanwhile, Chris Peterson is 0-6 against the number in home games after having won four or five of their last six games as the coach of Boise State. Peterson is also 0-6 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that average at least 200 rushing yards per game as the coach of Boise State.
The Broncos are 1-12 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Boise State is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. These last five trends combined for a 38-2 system backing the Cowboys. Take Wyoming Saturday.
|11-16-13||Oregon State +14 v. Arizona State||Top||17-30||Win||100||50 h 9 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +14
Off two straight losses to Stanford and USC, the Beavers will be hungry for a victory Saturday. That
|11-16-13||Tulsa v. Missouri State -4.5||93-96||Loss||-106||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5
After a 2-10 start last year with an inexperienced roster, Missouri State really rebounded to finish 11-22. Now, with four starters back, I fully expect this to be one of the most improved teams in the country.
Guard Marcus Marshall (11.5 ppg) and junior Christian Kirk (8.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are the top two returnees. After missing all of last season with a knee injury, senior forward Jamar Gulley returns. He averaged 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in 2011-12. Northern Colorado transfer Emmanuel Addo is 6'7", 220 pounds. Freshman Tyler McCullough (6'10", 230) is ready to contribute right away.
Missouri State is off to a solid start this season, picking up a 79-67 win at Old Dominion as a 1.5-point favorite. They grabbed 52 rebounds in that game and shot 72.2% from the free throw line, which will be huge with the new rules and tons of fouls being called. Gulley and Marshall led the way with 18 points apiece, while Austin Ruder added 14 points.
Tulsa is a team in rebuilding mode under second-year head coach Danny Manning. Its roster is made up of 12 of 165 players who are either freshmen or sophomores. That inexperience showed in the opener, losing 68-74 at home to Oral Roberts. The Golden Hurricane were outrebounded 28-45 in the loss. What really cost them was going 17-of-36 from the free throw line for 47.2% shooting.
Free throws could easily be the difference in this game, and I like Missouri State's chances of making them a lot more than Tulsa's. With a line of only 4.5, those free throws will be huge. The Bears are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.
|11-16-13||Alabama v. Mississippi State +25.5||20-7||Win||100||48 h 24 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Mississippi State +25.5
This is a huge letdown spot for Alabama. It is coming off arguably its biggest win of the season last Saturday in a 38-17 home victory over LSU. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was tied 17-17 in the third quarter before the Crimson Tide pulled away in the fourth.
It would be pretty easy for the Crimson Tide to overlook Mississippi State enough to fail to win by 26-plus points, which is what it would take to cover. We only have to look back to last year to find how Alabama responds after the LSU game. It beat LSU 21-17 on the road in 2012, then came back home the next week and lost to Texsa A&M 24-29 despite being a 13-point favorite.
|11-16-13||Texas Tech +28 v. Baylor||Top||34-63||Loss||-110||48 h 54 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +28
Texas Tech comes way undervalued due to its three-game losing streak. A closer look at the skid shows that the Red Raiders really had a chance to win all three games despite the final margins. They lost 30-38 at Oklahoma despite amassing 460 total yards. They committed three turnovers in that contest, which really put them in a hole that they just couldn