Frank Sawyer is on a 23 of 37 (62%) Soccer run — and now he furthers his RED HOT 19 of 29 (66%) Soccer Game of the Month/Year run with his 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year!
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At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W19-D4-L4) has won six straight matches while being unbeaten in thirteen straight games in the Bundesliga after their 5-2 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. Borussia Dortmund (W17-D6-L4) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to earn the two-goal victory as they only managed four shots in the match — and their expected goals based on the deeper metrics was just 0.91. The Black-and-Yellows have scored 74 goals this season — but the analytics are screaming for regression with this team given that their expected goals this year plummet to just 52.06 goals. While BVB is second in the German top-flight table with 57 points, their points based on expected goals fall to 50.48. Borussia Dortmund has the best record at home in the Bundesliga with a W10-D3-L0 mark for 33 points — but the xG metric projects those points to only accrue 27.39. Their 45 goals when playing at home drops significantly with the expected goals metric to just 31.06 xG. The Black-and-Yellows would certainly prefer that fans would be in the crowd for this Der Klassiker to help reproduce their famed “yellow wall.” This team is also dealing with injuries with forward (and captain) Marcos Reus out for this match with a knock while 20-year old phenom Jadon Sancho remains questionable with his injury. Borussia Dortmund is loaded with young talent — but experience in big matches like this is an issue. This team does not have the level of depth as Bayern Munich — and it is questionable how many of their starting XI would warrant the starting lineup if these two rosters were hypothetically merged. Bayern Munich may very well be the best team in Europe. They have won fourteen of their seventeen matches since they fired manager Niko Kovac to replace him with Hansi Flick. The Bavarians have won seven straight Bundesliga titles — and Flick reinvigorated this team by instituting a high press with a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bayern Munich’s defense has significantly improved under Flick as this team has done much better in coaxing suboptimal shots. Der Rekordmeister had registered five straight clean sheets before they surrendered two goals in a three-minute span on Saturday against Frankfurt. Led by forwards Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller along with 19-year old Canadian sensation Alphonso Davies at left wing, the Bavarians lead the German top-flight with 80 goals — and their 37 goals away from home are the most goals on the road in the league. Bayern Munich has won nine of their thirteen matches on the road in league play this season.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is in first-place by 4 points over Borussia Dortmund who is the next closest team to them in the standings — and even the expected goals metrics suggest they are slightly underachieving. The Bavarians are no fluke — and a victory in this match likely cements their eight-straight league championship. They will likely be without midfielder Thiago who is injured for this match — but this team has plenty of depth to replace him on the pitch. Bayern Munich blasted Borussia Dortmund by a 4-0 score in the reverse fixture back on November 9th — and they have won the last two spring showdowns with their primary Bundesliga rivals by a combined 11-0 score. Expect Bayern Munich to once again outclass this BVB side that has been very fortunate with their scoring success this season — especially with no home crowd to apply pressure to the road favorites in this match. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
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