My 10* BIG TIGER is on the Colorado Avalanche.

The Coyotes are 1-2 and the Avs are 4-0. Colorado is averaging over four goals per game and it enters off a convincing 4-1 win over Vegas. Arizona does come in off a 4-1 over the Golden Knights as well, but offense on a consistent basis has been something that the 'Yotes have struggled with early this year. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is just 22-26 in its last 48 after scoring four or more goals in its previous game.

- Colorado is 13-10 (+5.1 units) after a three-game unbeaten streak.

The verdict: I think the Avs come in focussed as they take advantage of home ice before a lengthy trip; lay the price with confidence!

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on USC.

USC is 3-2 and Notre Dame is 4-1. The Trojans enter off a 28-14 loss to Washington, while the Irish rolled over Bowling Green 52-0 last weekend. USC though has had a week off to digest its latest setback and with Kedon Slovis now directing the show under center, I believe the visitors can keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest (732 yards passing with five TD's and four INTs). USC also has three backs with over 150 rushing yards, so Slovis has help. USC only allows 411.4 yards of total offense per game, so I think Irish QB Ian Book takes a step back this weekend, after last Saturday's "cream puff" matchup. 

Key Trends:

- USC is already 2-0 ATS this year after one or more consecutive losses ATS.

- Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two straight home wins by 14 points or more.

The verdict: I think the rested home side can keep this one very close. No outright, but definitely grab up all these points!

My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the over Arkansas/Kentucky.

This is a big game for both of these 2-3 teams. Kentucky has had a week off to absorb three straight losses and it comes into this one focused and motivated to get off the schneid. Arkansas also enters off its bye week rested and ready to try and pull off an upset here. Led by Nick Starkel, the Razorbacks aren't going to be afraid to air this one out (Starkel so far has 1000 passing yards and 11 TD's.) Kentucky averages 23.4 PPG and it concedes 24.4. Something has got to give here. 

Key Trends:

- Arkansas has interestingly seen the total go over the number in five of its last six off a cover where it lost SU as a dog.

- Kentucky has seen the total soar over the number in seven of its last nine as a home favorite.

The verdict: Both rested teams will push from start to finish and I expect that to translate into production on the offensive side of the ball; this number is low, play the over!

My 8* play on Iowa State.

Both teams are 3-2, but I think the visitors come prepared today and I look for them to lay a beating on the home side. The Cyclones enter off a convincing 49-24 win over TCU at home and with three of their next four on the road, I think they have to set an early precident here. WVU on the other hand had its win streak snapped in a sloppy 42-31 loss to Texas last weekend. Iowa State has "murderers row" up next, with games at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas. But I have a hard time seeing WVU slowing down Iowa State QB Brock Purdy. WVU has been terrible against FSU offenses and I look for that trend to carry over today. 

Key Trends:

- The Cyclones are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 on the road.

- WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as an underdog.

The verdict: In my opinion, this one has "beatdown" written all over it; lay the points!

My 8* play on New Mexico State.

I think CMU gets caught "looking past" lowly and winless New Mexico State. Central Michigan is 3-3, winning all three at home. But with upcoming road games at Bowling Green and Buffalo, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a natural letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. I think NMS QB Josh Adkins can keep his team in this one late vs. a Chips' secondary which is allowing an average of 264.2 YPG through the air. 

Key Trends:

- New Mexico State is already 2-1 ATS as a road dog this year.

- CMU is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog.

The verdict: I think the improving Aggies will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final quarter; grab up all these points!

My 8* play on Georgia Tech.

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

My 8* play on Illinois.

Michigan is 4-1 and Illinois is 3-2. After hammering Rutgers 52-0, the Wolverines had to hold on for a tight 10-3 victory over Iowa last week. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that this absolutely sets up as a classic "trap" for the visitors, as Michigan has Penn State on deck next week. 

Key Trends:

- Michigan is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 on the road.

- The Wolverines are only 9-12 ATS in their last 21 after one or more SU victory.

- Illinois is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog.

The verdict: Illinois has had a difficult conference schedule and while it's not going to get any easier, I also don't expect it to go down without a fight this afternoon; grab the points!

My 8* play on Bowling Green.

I believe Toledo will get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. Of course I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do expect the home side to put up a fight. Last year the Rockets beat the Falcons 52-36. Yes Bowling Green has lost four in a row after winning its opener, but it's had a difficult schedule. It's now or never for the Falcons though if they have any hope of trying to make it to a Bowl. The motivational factors in which I look for when trying to choose one side or another are firmly in place for Bowling Green today (bowl hopes on the line, combined with catching a complacent Toledo team off four straight victories, and last year's revenge factor.) 

Key Trends:

- Toledo is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including 0-2 ATS this year.) 

- Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games.

The verdict: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Falcons; grab the points!