*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Virginia Tech has been extremely efficient all year on offense. They are good offensively, but Washington's matchup zone makes it tough for the long range jumpers to fall. On the other side, Washington's offense hasn't been very efficient last year or this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down significantly compared to a couple years ago.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dana Altman has made it a key point to let his team know he wasn't happy with them taking bad shots early in the clock. The last two games they have taken a lot more time on offense, and it has worked out. Oregon is moving the ball more and slowing the tempo down a lot.

Oregon's defense is very underrated. The Ducks have a lot of length and they'll give Boise State's shooters a difficult time here.

Boise State doesn't have the offensive firepower they had a few years ago. The Broncos still work hard defensively.

I had this one pegged a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Penn State has played eight straight games that have finished under this total. Most of them have finished far under the number. NC State has been really efficient on offense this year, but Penn State's defensive will make them work hard. The Nittany Lions will work to slow the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock.

Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude.

These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass. 

Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal.

The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams. 

I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field. 

Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense. 

A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country). 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well.

Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here.

Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well. 

The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points. 

The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year.

These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on North Texas* The Utah State Aggies lost head coach Matt Wells to Texas Tech. Wells had led this team for a long time, and this is a big change. They now have an interim coach, Frank Maile, for this game only. Gary Andersen has been hired as the team's head coach, but he has said he won't be at this game. David Yost is hanging around to call the plays for Utah State here, but a lot of the coaching staff is already in Lubbock. Utah State is in a very odd position here.

Utah State has been a very good team this year, but they haven't really beaten anyone good. They haven't beaten a top 55 opponent this year. The Aggies did beat bad teams they played by large margins, but they weren't very good when playing up.

North Texas didn't beat anyone good either, but the Mean Green actually outgained every single team they played this year. They lost a couple games they never should have lost. They come into this one with only a 33% ATS cover rate this year.

North Texas' star quarterback Mason Fine said that their two bowl losses the last two years have been gnawing at him. He wants a win badly here. Seth Littrell stayed here and his commitment to this North Texas program has to be motivating to the players. 

Teams who stop the run well (North Texas allowed only 3.34 ypc this year), and have covered less than 50% of their games have been great bets in bowl season. North Texas fits, and they have the motivational edge.

Take North Texas. 

*3 Star Play on MTSU* Nothing is a bigger deal in bowl season than motivation. Which team wants the game more than the other side? I think we have a motivational edge in this game. MTSU has a star quarterback in Brent Stockstill who is being coached by his father Rick Stockstill. When MTSU lost a close one to UAB last time out, they were very emotional. You know they badly want to win Brent's final game with the program. This is a veteran team. 

MTSU has tremendous coordinators. The Blue Raiders should come into this one prepared to play.

Appalachian State lost coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville. He was a great coach, and this team is now playing for an interim coach that is unlikely to get the head coaching job. That isn't a positive in my book. What is Appalachian State's motivational level here? This team isn't playing a huge name opponent, and they are being led by a different head coach.

Appalachian State played a very weak schedule throughout the year, and Conference USA has been a good conference ATS in bowl season. The public is backing Appalachian State here, and fading the public in bowl season has been a great long term strategy.

Grab the points.

Take Middle Tennessee State.