*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners offense has been really good so far this year. I think they are a quality offense, but they are due for some regression. Their batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position is .343 so far this year. That number can't continue all year. 

Trevor Cahill starts for the Angels, and he has held this Mariners lineup to a subpar .224 batting average in 86 plate appearances. 

Yusei Kikuchi is a quality lefty who the Angels will be seeing for the first time. The Angels are terrible against lefties. This team was in the bottom five against lefties last year, and they are dead last in wOBA against lefties so far this year. Justin Upton is usually good against lefties, but he is injured now. The Angels have Mike Trout, but the rest of the lineup isn't good. The Angels have a .241 wOBA against lefties on the season.

The under is 34-14-3 in the Angels last 51 games against a left handed starter. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds have won the first two games in this series. Cincinnati has a big starting pitching edge here. Luis Castillo is a guy that many advanced metrics guys have loved because of his strikeout potential, and he has put it all together so far this year.

Castillo has a 1.46 ERA this year. His FIP is 2.33 on the season, so it definitely hasn't been smoke and mirrors. Castillo has an amazing 16.8% swinging strike rate so far this year. Even more impressive to me is the fact that he has allowed an average exit velocity of just 83.0 mph this year (top 5% in the majors). He hasn't allowed a barreled batted ball yet this year. Castillo is making them swing and miss often, and even when they hit it they aren't hitting it hard.

Eric Lauer starts for the Padres. Lauer has struggled early on this year. His hard hit rate allowed on batted balls this year is an awful 46.8%. His average exit velocity allowed is 2 mph faster than a year ago at 88.7 mph. Lauer isn't a strikeout pitcher, and he's giving up a lot of hard hit balls.

The Reds offense isn't all that good, but they are better than they have shown. The Reds have a .228 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That's 16 points lower than anyone else in the majors. That will regress to the mean over time.

We have the much better starting pitcher here and because the Reds started so poorly this year, the price comes cheap.

Take Cincinnati.