*3 Star Play Under* Notre Dame's offensive statistics are skewed so far this year. Notre Dame has piled up big offensive numbers against a couple terrible defenses. Against the decent or better defenses they have faced, Ian Book and company just haven't been that good. USC isn't a great defense, but they are a lot better than some of the other units Notre Dame has played against.

USC is reliant on the passing game, and the Notre Dame secondary is excellent. Slovis is expected back for USC here, but I expect USC's passing attack to be less effective than normal because of the defense they are facing and the weather.

The weather here calls for 15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 25 mph through the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* For the last couple weeks, Clemson has heard a lot about how they aren't as good as they were expected to be. Dabo Swinney mentioned that he is getting tired of hearing it. The Clemson offense has been a bit of a disappointment. Here is a great chance for them to get back on track.

Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, and Clemson has played quickly this year as well. The Seminoles defense has allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company are in for a big day.

I see Clemson putting up a big number here and Florida State doing enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in northwest Ohio. The weather calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts to 28 mph during this game. That is plenty to change the game. Neither of these offenses are as explosive as they have been in the past. 

The Bowling Green offense ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Toledo is much better offensively, but they have shown that they are willing to slow down the game a lot once they have a lead. They should have a lead here throughout.

This is a very high total for a high wind game. These windy unders have treated me well in the past, and I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Southern Miss is now weak on defense, and they are much improved on offense in their new scheme.

North Texas has an elite quarterback in Mason Fine, and he is up against a weak Southern Miss secondary. Look at the numbers Troy's passing game put up against Southern Miss. This looks like a great spot for North Texas to pick up their production on offense.

I had this game projected at 63 points, so I'm glad to grab this one at 58.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Iowa* The Penn State Nittany Lions haven't played a tough schedule. Penn State nearly lost at home to their toughest opponent so far this year (Pittsburgh). They haven't played a single team in the top 42 of my power ratings. Penn State is highly dependent on big plays as an offense. The Nittany Lions are unlikely to get as many big plays as normal here. Iowa has allowed only 11 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Hawkeyes have a fundamentally sound defense.

While Nate Stanley looked really bad last week against Michigan, Stanley is normally a pretty reliable signal caller for the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes have double revenge here where Penn State has won two years in a row in very tight games against Iowa. 

Iowa doesn't get too many night games, but when they do the fans show up and keep Kinnick Stadium rocking. This is a very good home field advantage at night. 

Penn State is a good team, but they are overvalued in the betting markets right now. Iowa is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as a home underdog.

I like Iowa to cover here, and I will be putting a little bit of my bet on the moneyline too.

Take Iowa. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Wyoming offense isn't any good at all. They were able to run all over the UNLV defense a couple weeks ago, but I'm not going to let that make me think their offensive woes are fixed. Wyoming can't throw the ball, and San Diego State will just key in on the run here and force Chambers to beat them through the air. I don't think he can do it.

Ryan Agnew has been really bad at quarterback for San Diego State this year. San Diego State is 126th in offensive yards per play this year. They scored a whopping 6 points against Weber State and only 24 points against an awful Colorado State defense. 

San Diego State's games this year have finished with final totals of: 6 points, 37 points, 41 points, 40 points, and 44 points. Two of Wyoming's games have finished at 37 points.

Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU's defense has been shredded all season long. Marshall may have only scored 13 points last week, but the Thundering Herd put up 578 yards of offense. MTSU's defense hasn't shown me anything that would make me confident at all about their ability to slow down Florida Atlantic here. MTSU is 120th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Florida Atlantic's offense started the year struggling against good competition, but the Owls offense has been great in their last three games. Lane Kiffin's team should put up a lot of big plays here.

MTSU has been good on offense. The Blue Raiders passing attack should have a big edge on the FAU secondary which has been a clear weakness.

Both of these defenses have been fortunate in the red zone. They have been getting away with forcing teams to kick field goals or turning them over in the red zone. I expect defensive regression in points per game allowed for both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has really impressed this year. Their coaching staff is doing a tremendous job turning this team that was previously hapless on offense into a very good offensive squad. The 49ers are averaging 6.54 yards per play (26th in the country). Charlotte has been breaking big runs consistently. That's important here because the FIU front seven has been really weak against the run. Look for Charlotte's ground game to do damage here.

FIU's offense is finally starting to come around. They were an underachiever early in the year, but this offense has a lot of talent. Charlotte is way too reliant on their aggressive pass rush. FIU's offensive line grades out as above average, and I think FIU can burn Charlotte for being too aggressive on defense in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense looked dominant in the first quarter last weekend against Ohio State. Ohio State ended up looking great offensively in the second quarter before struggling again in the second half. That was a weird game, but Michigan State did show they have a lot of talent on the front seven defensively.

Wisconsin is a really good team, but they don't have the offensive balance Ohio State has. Wisconsin is going to run the ball over and over. Wisconsin's Jack Coan doesn't impress me in the passing game. The Badgers will lean heavily on the running game and use up a bunch of clock. Michigan State will give up some yards here to a great Wisconsin running game, but I do think they'll hold their own.

The Michigan State offense is really weak. Wisconsin is first in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Spartans don't have an explosive offense at all, and I don't think they'll be able to consistently put together long drives against Wisconsin.

The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph during the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren't even close to what they were a year ago on defense. I think the market has been slow to adjust to their defensive weaknesses. Mississippi State was a top five defense in the country last year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play this year. The Bulldogs have allowed 31 plays of 20 yards or more. 

Tennessee isn't a good offense, but I think Maurer gives them a better chance at quarterback than Guarantano. The Volunteers have turned it over too much this year, and if they can hold onto the ball a little better, I think they can score against teams like Mississippi State.

Mississippi State's offense should improve the rest of the way. The Bulldogs have enough weapons to be putting up better numbers than they have thus far. 

Both teams should put up a decent number of points in this one.

Take the over.