White Sox vs Astros
Astros -1½ -169 at pinnacle
Math model has a predicted score of 6.2 to 3.9
Tough to go against a red-hot Astros team right now.
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Dodgers vs Rays
Rays +1½ -132 at pinnacle
MIKE LUNDIN’S DODGERS @ RAYS FREE PICK
The Los Angeles Dodgers rarely lose with their ace on the mound, but Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 3.40 ERA) has not been at his best lately with 10 runs allowed through his last three starts.
Here the Dodgers will face a Tampa Bay Rays team that is 14-6 in its last 20 home games vs. a left-handed starter, and I like the home team to keep it close here at Tropicana Field Tuesday night.
The Rays will “open” with Hunter Wood (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who has given up six hits with one walk over 7 1/3 innings in 2019. The Rays lead the major leagues with a 2.98 ERA and their pitching should give them a chance to steal this game.
We can also note that Tampa Bay is 29-9 against the runline as home underdogs since the beginning of last season.
Free pick on Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
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Phillies vs Cubs
Cubs -125 at sportsbook
Mikey Sports FREE MLB play Tuesday 5-21-19
Chicago Cubs -125
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A’s vs Indians
Indians -122 at betonline
The A’s have won four in a row. But the pitching matchup, price and the way the Indians have started to swing the bats put me on Cleveland. A’s starter Chris Bassitt has a 1.93 ERA. He’s not nearly that good. The 30-year-old is due for a regression. The Indians’ offense began the year in hibernation. However, the Indians have shown life lately averaging 8.1 runs in their last five games if you discount a 5-1 loss to the Orioles and Dylan Bundy. Trevor Bauer is off a terrible start. Bauer, though, is an elite pitcher. I give him a huge edge – not reflected in this short lay price – over Bassitt. Bauer may not have to deal with slugger Khris Davis either. Davis is dealing with a hip injury. Cleveland has won 69 percent of Bauer’s past 26 home starts. (Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is a blazing 22-10-2 on his last 34 premium/free baseball plays and is on 71 percent NBA run. Stephen has a huge Tuesday package going with his top baseball sides play, his NBA Game of the Week and Stanley Cup Puck Line Game of the Month.)
White Sox vs Astros
Astros -1½ -160 at pinnacle
Pure Lock’s FREE MLB play Tuesday 5-21-19
Houston -1 1/2 -160
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Dodgers vs Rays
Rays +130 at 5Dimes
10* FREE MLB PICK (Rays +130)
I’ll take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog in this price range all day. Not only do I think the Dodgers are being overpriced with Kershaw on the mound, but I don’t think people quite get how good this Tampa Bay pitching has been, whether they send out a normal starter or an “opener” like they will today with Hunter Wood. Rays own the best ERA in the league at 2.98. As for Kershaw, he’s 3-0 with a 3.40 ERA in 6 starts, but has not been dominating like the old Kershaw. He’s got a 4.58 ERA in 3 starts this month and has allowed 5 homers in this stretch. I think he struggles here. Give me Tampa Bay +130!
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Marlins vs Tigers
Marlins +100 at 5Dimes
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Miami Marlins +100
The Miami Marlins just swept the Mets at home over the weekend and allowed a total of six runs in the process. I think the great pitching continues today against the light-hitting Tigers, who have lost six straight coming in.
Caleb Smith has been the biggest bright spot for the Marlins this season. He is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in eight starts this year with a whopping 64 K’s in 48 innings.
Spencer Turnbull has also put up somlikd numbers for the Tigers, but he is getting too much respect from the books here. He is 2-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in nine starts this season.
The Marlins are 5-0 in Smith’s last five starts vs. a team with a losing record, including 4-0 in his last four road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 0-7 in their last seven home games. Bet the Marlins Tuesday.
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A’s vs Indians
A’s +130 at YouWager
1* Free Sharp Play on A’s +130
My money is on the A’s to cash in a win here as a nice road dog. Oakland’s Chris Bassitt isn’t getting near the respect he deserves. The guy has a 1.93 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 5 starts. He’s got an even better 1.80 ERA in 3 road starts. Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer is a big name, but has a 7.41 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a miserable 6.17 ERA in 4 home starts this season. Bet the A’s +130!
CWS vs HOU
OVER 8 -110
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OVER 8 Chicago White Sox/Houston
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PHI vs CHC
UNDER 7½ -119
On Tuesday night in baseball, Play Under on teams like the Phillies when the total is 7 to 8.5 after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (54% to 62%). In the last five years, the Under is 46-17.
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Nationals vs Mets
Nationals +133 at pinnacle
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Washington Nationals +133
I’ll take a shot on the Nationals today as a big road dog to the New York Mets. The Mets shouldn’t be this big of favorites considering they are just 1-5 in their last six games overall and they have a terrible starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Zack Wheeler is 3-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his nine starts this year. Wheeler is 4-10 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 16 previous starts against Washington. He has already faced the Nationals three times in 2019, going 0-2 with a 9.76 ERA while yielding 17 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings. Give me the Nationals.
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A’s vs Indians
Indians -125 at 5Dimes
My 1* Free Play is on the Cleveland Indians (6:10 EST).
Off yesterday’s loss, I think that Trevor Bauer and the home side offer great value to bounce back on Tuesday night.
The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt (2-1, 1.93 ERA), who has looked great in his limited time, but who has struggled against the Tribe in two career starts, giving up five runs over 13.1 innings of work. While the A’s average 4.73 runs per game overall, they’re still only 8-15 on the road this year.
Bauer (4-2, 3.76) faced Oakland earlier this month and gave up two runs over seven innings. While he’s just 1-3 in seven career starts vs. the A’s, he still owns a very respectable 3.38 ERA in those contests. While averaging only 3.98 RPG overall after their slow start, the Indians have consistently been at their best at home by going 14-8 thus far.
I like Cleveland and Bauer to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-4 defeat. Consider the Indians on Tuesday night.
Reds vs Brewers
Brewers -135 at 5Dimes
Play – Milwaukee Brewers w/Gonzalez (Game 908).
Edges – Brewers: Gonzalez 9-2 last eleven overall team-starts, including 6-0 at home; and 8-1 last nine overall team-starts in May, including 6-0 the last six … Reds: 0-4 away behind Gray this season … We recommend a 1* play on the Milwaukee. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Twins vs Angels
Angels -113 at GTBets
1* Free MLB Pick on Los Angeles Angels -113
I’m backing the Angeles as a small home favorite against the Twins on Tuesday. LA will be highly motivated to even things up after losing the series opener 3-1 on Monday. Angels offense has been held in check the last two games, but are poised to snap out of that slump against the Twins Michael Pineda.
In 9 starts this season, Pineda has a 5.55 ERA and 1.340 WHIP. Pineda has had a terrible time keeping the ball in the park. He’s served up 13 home runs, including 6 (3 each) in his last 2 starts.
Angels are a strong 12-4 in their last 16 home games vs a right-handed starter and are 7-2 in their last 9 against a start with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Simply too good a price to pass up on LA in this spot. Take Los Angeles!
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays
Red Sox -150 at Mirage
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Tuesday’s FREE MLB WINNER: Boston red Sox.
4:07 pm pst.
Boston is starting to stride. The Red Sox are 14-5 the last 19, including a Game 1 winner yesterday over Toronto, 12-2. The Bosox have dominated the Blue Jays, taking eight of the last 10 meetings overall and 22 of the last 30 on Toronto. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the road start here. The LH is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA on the campaign, including a 4-0 mark in his last seven turns. Toronto gives Marcus Stroman the nod at home. The RH is 1-6 on the season and over his career owns a 4-3 record in 12 starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Rodriguez’s last five starts vs. the Blue Jays. 6-1 the last seven on the road, and 48-18 the last 66 vs. teams with a losing record. The Blue Jays 1-5 in Stroman’s last six starts vs. the Red Sox, 1-6 the last seven at home, and 5-14 the last 19 overall. Take Boston. Thank you.
Reds vs Brewers
Brewers -133 at YouWager
The Milwaukee Brewers finished out a tough road trip with a victory on Sunday but had to work overtime and are looking forward to going home, where they own a 16-8 record. The Brewers kick off a five-game homestand when they host the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a two-game set on Tuesday.
Milwaukee took on playoff hopefuls Chicago, Philadelphia and Atlanta on the road trip and went into extra innings three times, finally pulling out a victory in extra frames when Ben Gamel led off the 10th with a home run against the Braves on Sunday.
The Reds, who dropped two of three at home to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend and sit in last place in the National League Central, lost three straight one-run games at home to Milwaukee in the first week of the season. Cincinnati right-hander Sonny Gray will be looking for his first win on Tuesday while Brewers lefty Gio Gonzalez hopes to continue a solid stretch.
Take the Brewers here at home.
Rockies vs Pirates
Rockies -120 at Mirage
Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Colorado Rockies -120
The Key: German Marquez has been great away from Coors Field this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 5 road starts in 2019. Chris Archer is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 6 starts this year for the Pirates, including 0-3 with a 10.66 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Marquez is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against Pittsburgh. Take Colorado.
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